Patterns of sea surface temperature variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales at and offshore the Río de la Plata estuary

SST variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales in the coastal region of South America between 30° and 39°S, largely influenced by the Rio de la Plata estuary’s plume, and its relation to wind variability are explored. Data are six years of daily ensembles of gridded satellite SST and sea surface winds with spatial resolutions of about 11 and 25 km, respectively. Observations from oceanographic cruises are used to validate the results. It is found that the seasonal cycle can be explained in terms of two modes. The first one, characterizing fall-early winter/spring-early summer, is related to the radiative cycle. The second one, corresponding to late summer and winter, displays warm/cold anomalies along the Uruguayan coast forced by the prevailing winds during those seasons. In the upper estuary and the northern part of the area of influence of the freshwater plume, variability in sub-annual scales is significant. A large portion of this variance is related to zonal wind anomalies that force warm/cold SSTs along that coast. Cold anomalies of up to −5 °C occur under anomalously intense easterly winds, indicating upwelling. These events are very frequent and show large persistence, occurring up to one and a half months. They also display a marked seasonal cycle – being more frequent in late spring and summer – large inter-annual variability and seem to be modulated by the continental runoff. When discharge is low, the freshwater plume retracts to the west, reducing the inner-shelf stratification and increasing the likelihood of a full upwelling to the surface. In winter, short time-scale SST variability is mostly due to variability in the atmospheric cold fronts crossing the region. Weaker or less frequent (stronger or more frequent) fronts produce a generalized warming (cooling) over the region. As the estuary heats (colds) faster than the shelf, a warm (cold) anomaly develops in the upper Río de la Plata. On inter-annual time scales, probably because ENSO activity was weak during the studied period, SST variability was not important.     

Satellite observation of Brazil Current inshore thermal front in the SW South Atlantic: Space/time variability and sea surface temperatures

A data set of 199 sea surface temperature maps derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer for the period 2000–2002 was processed to derive the position of the surface inshore thermal front of the Brazil Current (BCIF) in the SE Brazilian coastal and oceanic area. After the derivation of the position of the BC front for each image, the ensemble of digital frontal vectors was processed using the algorithm of frontal density (FD). For each 5′×5′ cell in the domain the calculated FD provided an index expressing the presence and persistence of the front in the area or the probability of finding the front in the region. In the paper we present the results of the FD analysis to get a better view of the space and time variability of the BC front in the region. The highest values of FD were in general observed close to or at the shelf break zone (between 200 and 1000 m isobaths). From 20°S to 23°S there is a tendency of BCIF to be positioned over the outer shelf, inshore of the 200 m isobaths. SE of Cape Sao Tome and S of Cape Frio it was observed a bimodal spatial distribution of highest FD caused by the presence of two semi-permanent frontal eddies. After moving offshore near Cape Frio, the BCIF tends to return to the shelf break zone south of 24°S probably due to a potential vorticity conservation mechanism. The position of the highest FD values calculated for different seasons confirms previous studies in that BCIF is closer to the coast during the summer and furthest offshore in the winter. Statistical analysis of the SST data gave for the BCIF an average SST gradient of 0.31°C km⁻¹ with a standard deviation of 0.15°C km⁻¹. A mean frontal width of 6 km was inferred from the average SST gradient and typical temperatures near the front at both sides, at outer shelf and in the BC itself. A Weibull probability density function can be fitted to describe the BCIF SST gradients with scale factor c=0.3460°C km⁻¹ and shape factor k=2.1737. The BCIF SST gradient showed a seasonal variability with the smallest gradients in summer (~0.24 °C km⁻¹) and the highest in autumn (~0.33 °C km⁻¹). Using a three harmonic Fourier fit for the SST field near the BCIF, at the outer shelf and at interior of BC, it was possible to derive an analytical model for the time variability of the SST gradient of BCIF.     

南海夏季风爆发与南大洋海温变化之间的联系

利用1979-2009年NCEP第二套大气再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,分析南海夏季风爆发时间的年际和年代际变化特征,考察南海夏季风爆发早晚与南大洋海温之间的联系.主要结果为:(1)南海夏季风爆发时间年际和年代际变化明显,1979-1993年与1994-2009年前后两个阶段爆发时间存在阶段性突变;(2)南海夏季风爆发时间与前期冬季(12-1月)印度洋-南大洋(0-80°E,75°S-50°S)海温、春季(2-3月)太平洋-南大洋(170°E -80°W,75°S-50°S)海温都存在正相关关系,当前期冬、春季南大洋海温偏低(高)时,南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚).南大洋海温信号,无论是年际还是年代际变化,都对南海夏季风爆发具有一定的预测指示作用;(3)南大洋海温异常通过海气相互作用和大气遥相关影响南海夏季风爆发的迟早.当南大洋海温异常偏低(偏高)时,冬季南极涛动偏强(偏弱),同时通过遥相关作用使热带印度洋-西太平洋地区位势高度偏低(偏高)、纬向风加强(减弱),热带大气这种环流异常一直维持到春季4、5月份,位势高度和纬向风异常范围逐步向北扩展并伴随索马里越赤道气流的加强(减弱),从而为南海夏季风爆发偏早(偏晚)提供有利的环流条件.初步分析认为,热带大气环流对南大洋海气相互作用的遥响应与半球际大气质量重新分布引起的南北涛动有关.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Decadal scale variability of sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to atmospheric variability

Twenty-four years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data (1985–2008) and 35 years of NOCS (V.2) in situ-based SST data (1973–2008) were used to investigate the decadal scale variability of this parameter in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to local air–sea interaction and large-scale atmospheric variability. Satellite and in situ-derived data indicate a strong eastward increasing sea surface warming trend from the early 1990s onwards. The satellite-derived mean annual warming rate is about 0.037°C year^–1 for the whole basin, about 0.026°C year^–1 for the western sub-basin and about 0.042°C year^–1 for the eastern sub-basin over 1985–2008. NOCS-derived data indicate similar variability but with lower warming trends for both sub-basins over the same period. The long-term Mediterranean SST spatiotemporal variability is mainly associated with horizontal heat advection variations and an increasing warming of the Atlantic inflow. Analysis of SST and net heat flux inter-annual variations indicates a negative correlation, with the long-term SST increase, driving a net air–sea heat flux decrease in the Mediterranean Sea through a large increase in the latent heat loss. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly average anomaly satellite-derived time series showed that the first EOF mode is associated with a long-term warming trend throughout the whole Mediterranean surface and it is highly correlated with both the Eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. On the other hand, SST basin-average yearly anomaly and NAO variations show low and not statistically significant correlations of opposite sign for the eastern (negative correlation) and western (positive correlation) sub-basins. However, there seems to be a link between NAO and SST decadal-scale variations that is particularly evidenced in the second EOF mode of SST anomalies. NOCS SST time series show a significant SST rise in the western basin from 1973 to the late 1980s following a large warming of the inflowing surface Atlantic waters and a long-term increase of the NAO index, whereas SST slowly increased in the eastern basin. In the early 1990s, there is an abrupt change from a very high positive to a low NAO phase which coincides with a large change in the SST spatiotemporal variability pattern. This pronounced variability shift is followed by an acceleration of the warming rate in the Mediterranean Sea and a change in the direction (from westward to eastward) of its spatial increasing tendency.     

赤道MJO活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979—2013年NCEP/DOE再分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料、美国NOAA日平均向外长波辐射资料和ERSST月平均海温资料,分析赤道大气季节内振荡(简称MJO)活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响及其与热带海温信号等的协同作用.结果表明,赤道MJO活动与南海夏季风爆发密切联系,MJO的湿位相(即对流活跃位相)处于西太平洋位相时,有利于南海夏季风爆发,而MJO湿位相处于印度洋位相时,则不利于南海夏季风爆发.赤道MJO活动影响南海夏季风爆发的物理过程主要是大气对热源响应的结果,当MJO湿位相处于西太平洋位相时,一方面热带西太平洋对流加强使潜热释放增加,导致处于热源西北侧的南海—西北太平洋地区对流层低层由于Rossby响应产生气旋性环流异常,气旋性环流异常则有利于西太平洋副热带高压的东退,另一方面菲律宾附近热源促进对流层高层南亚高压在中南半岛和南海北部的建立,使南海地区高层为偏东风,从而有利于南海夏季风建立;当湿位相MJO处于印度洋位相时,热带西太平洋对流减弱转为大气冷源,情况基本相反,不利于南海夏季风建立.MJO活动、孟加拉湾气旋性环流与年际尺度海温变化协同作用,共同对南海夏季风爆发迟早产生影响,近35年南海夏季风爆发时间与海温信号不一致的年份,基本上是由于季节转换期间的MJO活动特征及孟加拉湾气旋性环流是否形成而造成,因此三者综合考虑对于提高季风爆发时间预测水平具有重要意义.     

Temporal and spatial variability of Chl-a and SST on the South Atlantic Bight: Revisiting with cloud-free reconstructions of MODIS satellite imagery

Daily, cloud-free data interpolating empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll (Chl-a) satellite imagery are compiled into monthly mean images for a six-year period (2003–2008) and used to identify their spatial and temporal variability on the South Atlantic Bight. Monthly-mean SST has the highest variability on the inner-shelf, decreasing seaward approaching the more stable temperatures of the Gulf Stream (GS). Monthly-mean Chl-a concentrations are similarly highest on the inner shelf throughout the year and decrease cross-shelf toward the nutrient depleted open ocean. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on SST and Chl-a show a clear seasonal cycle in their 1st mode of variability, with SST lagging behind Chl-a by approximately one month. The 1st EOF modes account for 95.8% and 46.4% variance of SST and Chl-a, respectively. Chl-a EOF mode 1 in particular shows a highly regionalized spatial pattern with values on the central SAB clearly out of phase with the southern and northern SAB. This regional difference is likely a result of shelf geometry and stratification, which modulate GS influence on the shelf. SST EOF mode 2 exhibits a seasonal cycle as well, which previous studies have shown to be a function of local wind. Chl-a EOF mode 2 is well correlated with the cumulative river transport onto the SAB, but accounts for a relatively small 10.8% of Chl-a variability.     

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode recorded in coral oxygen isotope data from the Seychelles over the past 148 years

The tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) displays a uniform basin-wide warming or cooling in sea surface temperature(SST) during the decay year of El Niδo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. This warming or cooling is called the tropical Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM). Recent studies showed that the IOBM dominates the interannual variability of the TIO SST and has impacts on the tropical climate from the TIO to the western Pacific. Analyses on a 148-year-long monthly coral δ 18 O record from the Seychelles Islands demonstrate that the Seychelles coral δ 18 O not only is associated with the local SST but also indicates the interannul variability of the basin-wide SST in the TIO. Moreover, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O shows a dominant period of 3–7 years that well represents the variability of the IOBM, which in return is modulated by the inter-decadal climate variability. The correlation between the Seychelles coral δ 18 O and the SST reveals that the coral δ 18 O lags the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific by five months and reaches its peak in the spring following the mature phase of ENSO. The spatial pattern of the first EOF mode indicates that the Seychelles Islands are located at the crucial place of the IOBM. Thus, the Seychelles coral δ 18 O could be used as a proxy of the IOBM to investigate the ENSO teleconnection on the TIO in terms of long-time climate variability.     

A comparative study of winds and tidal variability in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region over Bulgaria and the UK

Meteor radars located in Bulgaria and the UK have been used to simultaneously measure winds in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region near 42.5°N, 26.6°E and 54.5°N, 3.9°W, respectively, over the period January 1991 to June 1992. The data have been used to investigate planetary waves and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variability over the two sites. The tidal amplitudes at each site exhibit fluctuations as large as 300% on time scales from a few days to the intra-seasonal, with most of the variability being at intra-seasonal scales. Spectral and cross-wavelet analysis reveals closely related tidal variability over the two sites, indicating that the variability occurs on spatial scales large compared to the spacing between the two radars. In some, but not all, cases, periodic variability of tidal amplitudes is associated with simultaneously present planetary waves of similar period, suggesting the variability is a consequence of non-linear interaction. Calculation of the zonal wave number of a number of large amplitude planetary waves suggests that during summer 1991 the 2-day wave had a zonal wave number of 3, but that during January/February 1991 it had a zonal wave number of 4.     

Processes of India’s offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability

Active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon are associated with sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations at 30–90 days timescale in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Mechanisms responsible for basin-scale intraseasonal SST variations have previously been discussed, but the maxima of SST variability are actually located in three specific offshore regions: the South-Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), the Southern Tip of India (STI) and the North-Western Bay of Bengal (NWBoB). In the present study, we use an eddy-permitting 0.25° regional ocean model to investigate mechanisms of this offshore intraseasonal SST variability. Modelled climatological mixed layer and upper thermocline depth are in very good agreement with estimates from three repeated expendable bathythermograph transects perpendicular to the Indian Coast. The model intraseasonal forcing and SST variability agree well with observed estimates, although modelled intraseasonal offshore SST amplitude is undere-stimated by 20–30 %. Our analysis reveals that surface heat flux variations drive a large part of the intraseasonal SST variations along the Indian coastline while oceanic processes have contrasted contributions depending of the region considered. In the SEAS, this contribution is very small because intraseasonal wind variations are essentially cross-shore, and thus not associated with significant upwelling intraseasonal fluctuations. In the STI, vertical advection associated with Ekman pumping contributes to ～30 % of the SST fluctuations. In the NWBoB, vertical mixing diminishes the SST variations driven by the atmospheric heat flux perturbations by 40 %. Simple slab ocean model integrations show that the amplitude of these intraseasonal SST signals is not very sensitive to the heat flux dataset used, but more sensitive to mixed layer depth.     

Coastal and oceanic SST variability along the western Iberian Peninsula

The inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed along the western Iberian Peninsula in the region ranging from 9.5 °W to 21.5 °W and from 37.5 °N to 42.5 °N with a spatial resolution of 1°×1° from 1900 to 2008. Both coastal and oceanic SST showed an overall increase with warming and cooling cycles similar to those observed in the North Atlantic region and in previous regional studies. In addition, the evolution of coastal and ocean water has been observed to be different. In general, ocean water is more affected by the different warming–cooling cycles than coastal water. In spite of coast and ocean are highly influenced by global changes affecting the whole North Atlantic region, near shore SST has been observed to be correlated with local wind regime, which is itself a manifestation of the Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection pattern.     

A high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature climatology for the western North Atlantic Ocean

Long-term and high-resolution (∼1.2 km) satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) fields of a monthly mean time series for the 1985–1999 period, and a daily climatology have been calculated for the North West Atlantic Ocean. The SST fields extend from 78°W to 41°W in longitude, and 30°N to 56°N in latitude, encompassing the region off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to the southern Labrador Sea. The monthly mean time series, consists of 180 cloud-masked monthly mean SST fields, derived from a full-resolution NOAA/NASA Pathfinder SST data set for the 1985–1999 period. The satellite-derived monthly mean SST fields, as compared with in situ monthly mean near-surface ocean temperatures from buoys located in the western North Atlantic, yield an overall RMS difference of 1.15 °C. The daily climatology, which consists of 365 fields, was derived by applying a least-squares harmonic regression technique on the monthly mean SST time series for the full study period. The monthly mean and daily climatological SST fields will be useful for studying inter-annual variability related to climate variability of SST over the study domain.     

Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

Temperature variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past 40 years,from an in situ analysis and a 3D global simulation

A global in situ analysis and a global ocean simulation are used jointly to study interannual to decadal variability of temperature in the Bay of Biscay, from 1965 to 2003. A strong cooling is obtained at all depths until the mid-1970's, followed by a sustained warming over ～30 years. Strong interannual fluctuations are superimposed on this slow evolution. The fluctuations are intensified at the surface and are weakest at ～500 m. A good agreement is found between the observed and simulated temperatures, in terms of mean values, interannual variability and time correlations. Only the decadal trend is significantly underestimated in the simulation. A comparison to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data over the last 20 years is also presented. The first mode of interannual variability exhibits a quasi-uniform structure and is related to the inverse winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Regarding the vertical structure, most cool and warm anomalies are generated at the surface, with the strongest ones penetrating down to 700 m and lasting up to 5 years. The complete heat budget from 1965 to 2004 is presented, including the contributions of vertical transport, freshwater flux and surface elevation. Interannual anomalies are mainly generated by the surface heat flux, while oceanic transports may become more important at longer time scales.     

A neurocomputing approach to predict monsoon rainfall in monthly scale using SST anomaly as a predictor

A relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and sea surface temperature anomalies was investigated with the aim of predicting the monthly scale rainfall during the summer monsoon period over a section (80°–90°E, 14°–24°N) of eastern India that depends heavily upon the rainfall during the summer monsoon months for its agricultural practices. The association between area-averaged rainfall of June over the study zone and global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1982–2008 was examined and the variability of rainfall in monthly scale was calculated. With a view to significant variability in the rainfall in the monthly scale, it was decided to implement the artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting the monthly scale rainfall using the SST anomalies as a predictor. Finally, the potential of ANN in this prediction has been assessed.     

Hadley环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与热带海温的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料和NOAA海表温度(SST)资料,分析了冬、夏季Hadley环流的变化特征及其与热带海温在年际、年代际尺度上的关系. 结果表明,冬季北半球Hadley环流强度具有明显的年际和年代际变化,同时还呈现出明显的增强趋势. 伴随着Hadley环流的加强,环流中心位置南移,高度上升;夏季南半球Hadley环流变化主要表现为强、弱、强的年代际振动,没有明显的线性趋势. 研究还显示冬季Hadley环流与Nino3区SST正相关,这种相关性具有年代际变化特征. 年际尺度上,冬季北半球Hadley环流与Nino3区SST正相关;夏季南半球Hadley环流与Nino3区SST负相关,即当赤道中东太平洋SST异常偏暖(冷)时,冬、夏季Hadley环流变强(弱).     

Validation of AVHRR and TMI-derived sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea

Satellite-derived SSTs are validated in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using in situ SSTs from the drifting buoys and well-calibrated sensors installed on Research/Vessel(R/V) Shiyan 3. The satellite SSTs are Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST. Availability of satellite SST, which is the ratio that the number of available satellite SST to the total ocean pixels in NSCS is calculated; annual average SST availabilities of AVHRR daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, TMI daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST are 68.42%, 69.99%, 56.57% and 52.80%, respectively. Though the TMI SST availability is nearly constant throughout the year, the variations of the AVHRR SST availability are much larger because of seasonal variations of cloud cover in NSCS. Validation of the satellite-derived SSTs shows that bias±standard deviation (STD) of AVHRR SST is −0.43±0.76 and −0.33±0.79 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively, and bias±STD of TMI SSTs is 0.07±1.11 and 0.00±0.97 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively. It is clear that AVHRR SSTs have significant regional biases of about −0.4 °C against the drifting buoy SSTs. Differences between satellite-derived−in situ SSTs are investigated in terms of the diurnal SST cycle. When satellite-derived wind speeds decrease down below 6 m/s, the satellite SSTs become higher than the corresponding in situ SSTs, which means that the SST difference (satellite SST−Buoy SST) is positive. This wind-speed dependence of the SST difference is consistent with the previous results, which have mentioned that low wind speed coupled with clear sky conditions (high surface solar radiation) enhance the diurnal SST amplitude and the bulk-skin temperature difference.     

Regional sea-surface temperatures explain spatial and temporal variation of summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River

ABSTRACT

The summer precipitation (June–September) in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, playing an important role in water availability. This study divided the source region of the Yellow River into homogeneous zones based on precipitation variability using cluster analysis. Summer precipitation trends and teleconnections with global sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1961 to 2010 were investigated by Mann-Kendall test and Pearson product-moment correlation analysis. The results show that the northwest part (Zone 1) had a non-significantly increasing trend, and the middle and southeast parts (zones 2 and 3) that receive the most precipitation displayed a statistically significant decreasing trend for summer precipitation. The summer precipitation in the whole region showed statistically significant negative correlations with the central Pacific SST for 0–4 month lag and with the Southern Indian and Atlantic oceans SST for 5–8 month lag. Analyses of sub-regions reveal intricate and complex correlations with different SST areas that further explain the summer precipitation variability. The SOI had significant positive correlations, mainly for 0–2 months lag, with summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River. It is seen that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have an influence on summer precipitation, and the predominant negative correlations indicate that higher SST in equatorial Pacific areas corresponding to El Niño coincides with less summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes in response to changes in air temperature

Interannual variability in the thermal structure of lakes is driven by interannual differences in meteorological conditions. Dynamic or mechanistic models and empirical or statistical methods have been used to integrate the physical processes in lakes enabling the response of the thermal structure to changes in air temperature to be determined. Water temperature records for Lake Mendota, WI., are possibly the most extensive for any dimictic lake in the world and allowed both approaches to be used. Results from both techniques suggest the mixed layer temperature increases with increasing air temperature. Results from the empirical approach suggested epilimnion temperatures increase 0.5 to 1.0°C per 1.0°C increase in air temperature compared to 0.4 to 0.85°C estimated from a dynamical model (DYRESM). Increased air temperatures are related to significant warming in deep water temperatures in the absence of stratification; however, mid summer hypolimnion temperatures are expected to change very little or increase only slightly in response to climatic warming. Both approaches suggest increases in air temperatures increase the length of summer stratification; results from the dynamic model suggest an increase of approximately 5 days per 1°C increase in air temperature. Longer stratification is reflected in shallower late summer thermocline depths. With these quantitative relationships and forecast increases in air temperature for the 2 × CO₂ climatic scenario (Greenhouse Effect) from three General Circulation Models, projections are made describing the changes in the future mean thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes.