Testing a spatially distributed tracer‐aided runoff model in a snow‐influenced catchment: Effects of multicriteria calibration on streamwater ages

Integrating stable isotope tracers into rainfall‐runoff models allows investigation of water partitioning and direct estimation of travel times and water ages. Tracer data have valuable information content that can be used to constrain models and, in integration with hydrometric observations, test the conceptualization of catchment processes in model structure and parameterization. There is great potential in using tracer‐aided modelling in snow‐influenced catchments to improve understanding of these catchments' dynamics and sensitivity to environmental change. We used the spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff (STARR) model to simulate the interactions between water storage, flux, and isotope dynamics in a snow‐influenced, long‐term monitored catchment in Ontario, Canada. Multiple realizations of the model were achieved using a combination of single and multiple objectives as calibration targets. Although good simulations of hydrometric targets such as discharge and snow water equivalent could be achieved by local calibration alone, adequate capture of the stream isotope dynamics was predicated on the inclusion of isotope data in the calibration. Parameter sensitivity was highest, and most local, for single calibration targets. With multiple calibration targets, key sensitive parameters were still identifiable in snow and runoff generation routines. Water ages derived from flux tracking subroutines in the model indicated a catchment where runoff is dominated by younger waters, particularly during spring snowmelt. However, resulting water ages were most sensitive to the partitioning of runoff sources from soil and groundwater sources, which was most realistically achieved when isotopes were included in the calibration. Given the paucity of studies where hydrological models explicitly incorporate tracers in snow‐influenced regions, this study using STARR is an important contribution to satisfactorily simulating snowpack dynamics and runoff generation processes, while simultaneously capturing stable isotope variability in snow‐influenced catchments.     

Estimating Runoff Using Hydro-Geodetic Approaches

Given the continuous decline in global runoff data availability over the past decades, alternative approaches for runoff determination are gaining importance. When aiming for global scale runoff at a sufficient temporal resolution and with homogeneous accuracy, the choice to use spaceborne sensors is only a logical step. In this respect, we take water storage changes from Gravity Recovery And Climate Explorer (grace) results and water level measurements from satellite altimetry, and present a comprehensive assessment of five different approaches for river runoff estimation: hydrological balance equation, hydro-meteorological balance equation, satellite altimetry with quantile function-based stage–discharge relationships, a rudimentary instantaneous runoff–precipitation relationship, and a runoff–storage relationship that takes time lag into account. As a common property, these approaches do not rely on hydrological modeling; they are either purely data driven or make additional use of atmospheric reanalyses. Further, these methods, except runoff–precipitation ratio, use geodetic observables as one of their inputs and, therefore, they are termed hydro-geodetic approaches. The runoff prediction skill of these approaches is validated against in situ runoff and compared to hydrological model predictions. Our results show that catchment-specific methods (altimetry and runoff–storage relationship) clearly outperform the global methods (hydrological and hydro-meteorological approaches) in the six study regions we considered. The global methods have the potential to provide runoff over all landmasses, which implies gauged and ungauged basins alike, but are still limited due to inconsistencies in the global hydrological and hydro-meteorological datasets that they use.     

Tracing contributions to hydro‐isotopic differences between two adjacent lakes in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Hydrological processes of lakes in the Tibetan Plateau are an important indicator of climate change. Due to the high elevation, inaccessibility and limited availability of historical observations, water budget evaluation of typical lake basins has been inadequate. In this study, stable isotopes are used to trace the multiple water sources contributing to two adjacent lakes on the north slope of the Himalayas, Gongmo‐tso and Drem‐tso. The two lakes have nearly the same elevation, lake area and climatic condition. However, the isotopic composition of the two lakes presents significant differences. Qualitative observations attribute the differences to hydrological discrepancies: Gongmo‐tso is a through‐flow lake, whereas Drem‐tso is a terminal lake. Quantitative analyses, including water and isotope mass balance modelling, clarify the fluxes and isotopic compositions among the various hydrological elements. The isotopic composition of input water, calculated as the summation of rainfall and upstream runoff, is estimated using the local meteoric water line (LMWL) combined with the time series of lake water isotope values. The isotopic composition of evaporation is calculated with a linear resistance model using local meteorological data. The results show that Drem‐tso is a closed lake in a hydrological steady state with relatively more enriched lake water isotope values resulting mainly from evaporation. In contrast, through‐flow accounts for more than 88% of the water input into Gongmo‐tso. The large amount of upstream runoff with lower isotopic composition and enrichment due to evaporation are the major contributions to the observed lake water isotope values. Isotopic modelling of the two neighbouring lakes is effective for isotopic and hydrological research in this region with limited in situ observations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of isotope tracers in continental scale hydrological modeling

Isotope tracers are widely used to study hydrological processes in small catchments, but their use in continental-scale hydrological modeling has been limited. This paper describes the development of an isotope-enabled global water balance and transport model (iWBM/WTM) capable of simulating key hydrological processes and associated isotopic responses at the large scale. Simulations and comparisons of isotopic signals in precipitation and river discharge from available datasets, particularly the IAEA GNIP global precipitation climatology and the USGS river isotope dataset spanning the contiguous United States, as well as selected predictions of isotopic response in yet unmonitored areas illustrate the potential for isotopes to be applied as a diagnostic tool in water cycle model development. Various realistic and synthetic forcings of the global hydrologic and isotopic signals are discussed. The test runs demonstrate that the primary control on isotope composition of river discharge is the isotope composition of precipitation, with land surface characteristics and precipitation-amount having less impact. Despite limited availability of river isotope data at present, the application of realistic climatic and isotopic inputs in the model also provides a better understanding of the global distribution of isotopic variations in evapotranspiration and runoff, and reveals a plausible approach for constraining the partitioning of surface and subsurface runoff and the size and variability of the effective groundwater pool at the macro-scale.     

Advancing isotope-enabled hydrological modelling for ungauged calibration of data-scarce humid tropical catchments

Realistic projections of the future climate and how this translates to water availability is crucial for sustainable water resource management. However, data availability constrains the capacity to simulate streamflow and corresponding hydrological processes. Developing more robust hydrological models and methods that can circumvent the need for large amounts of hydro-climatic data is crucial to support water-related decisions, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we use natural isotope tracers in addition to hydro-climate data within a newly developed version of the spatially-distributed J2000iso as an isotope-enabled rainfall-runoff model simulating both water and stable isotope (δ²H) fluxes. We pilot the model for the humid tropical San Carlos catchment (2500 km²) in northeastern Costa Rica, which has limited time series, but spatially distributed data. The added benefit of simulating stable isotopes was assessed by comparing different amounts of observation data using three model calibration strategies (i) three streamflow gauges, (ii) three gauges with stream isotopes and (iii) isotopes only. The J2000iso achieved a streamflow Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.55–0.70 across all the models and gauges, but differences in hydrological process simulations emerged when including stable water isotopes in the rainfall-runoff calibration. Hydrological process simulation varied between the standard J2000 rainfall-runoff model with a high simulated surface runoff proportion of 37% as opposed to the isotope version with 84%–89% simulated baseflow or interflow. The model solutions that used only isotope data for calibration exhibited differences in simulated interflow, baseflow and model performance but captured bulk water balances with a reasonable match between the simulated and observed hydrographs. We conclude that J2000iso has shown the potential to support water balance modelling for ungauged catchments using stable isotope, satellite and global reanalysis data sets.     

On the value of isotope-enabled hydrological model calibration

ABSTRACT

Calibration of hydrological models is challenging in high-latitude regions where hydrometric data are minimal. Process-based models are needed to predict future changes in water supply, yet often with high amounts of uncertainty, in part, from poor calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of stable isotopes (¹⁸O, ²H) as data employed for improving the amount and type of information available for model calibration using the isoWATFLOOD^TM model. We show that additional information added to calibration does not hurt model performance and can improve simulation of water volume. Isotope-enabled calibration improves long-term validation over traditional flow-only calibrated models and offers additional feedback on internal flowpaths and hydrological storages that can be useful for informing internal water distribution and model parameterization. The inclusion of isotope data in model calibration reduces the number of realistic parameter combinations, resulting in more constrained model parameter ranges and improved long-term simulation of large-scale water balance.     

Semi‐distributed flood runoff model at the subcontinental scale for southwestern Iran

Rainfall–runoff modelling, as a surface hydrological process, on large‐scale data‐poor basins is currently a major topic of investigation that requires the model parameters be identified by using basin physical characteristics rather than calibration. This paper describes the application of the TOPMODEL framework accompanied by a kinematic wave model to the Karun River sub‐basins in southwestern Iran with just one conceptual parameter for calibration. ISLSCP1, HYDRO1K and Reynolds data sets are presented in a geographical information system and used as data sources for meteorological information, hydrological features and soil characteristics of the study area respectively. The results show that although the model developed can adequately predict flood runoff in the catchment with only one calibrated parameter, it is suggested that the effect of surface reservoirs be considered in the proposed model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating glaciers raster‐based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study

A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale

Abstract

A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (～450 000 km²), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km². Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of a modelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G., 2012. Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 229–247.     

Spatially distributed tracer‐aided modelling to explore water and isotope transport,storage and mixing in a pristine,humid tropical catchment

Rapidly transforming headwater catchments in the humid tropics provide important resources for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystem connectivity. However, such resources for downstream use remain unstudied. To improve understanding of the behaviour and influence of pristine rainforests on water and tracer fluxes, we adapted the relatively parsimonious, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall–runoff (STARR) model using event‐based stable isotope data for the 3.2‐km² San Lorencito catchment in Costa Rica. STARR was used to simulate rainforest interception of water and stable isotopes, which showed a significant isotopic enrichment in throughfall compared with gross rainfall. Acceptable concurrent simulations of discharge (Kling–Gupta efficiency [KGE] ~0.8) and stable isotopes in stream water (KGE ~0.6) at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (hourly) resolution indicated a rapidly responding system. Around 90% of average annual streamflow (2,099 mm) was composed of quick, near‐surface runoff components, whereas only ~10% originated from groundwater in deeper layers. Simulated actual evapotranspiration (ET) from interception and soil storage were low (~420 mm/year) due to high relative humidity (average 96%) and cloud cover limiting radiation inputs. Modelling suggested a highly variable groundwater storage (~10 to 500 mm) in this steep, fractured volcanic catchment that sustains dry season baseflows. This groundwater is concentrated in riparian areas as an alluvial–colluvial aquifer connected to the stream. This was supported by rainfall–runoff isotope simulations, showing a “flashy” stream response to rainfall with only a moderate damping effect and a constant isotope signature from deeper groundwater (~400‐mm additional mixing volume) during baseflow. The work serves as a first attempt to apply a spatially distributed tracer‐aided model to a tropical rainforest environment exploring the hydrological functioning of a steep, fractured‐volcanic catchment. We also highlight limitations and propose a roadmap for future data collection and spatially distributed tracer‐aided model development in tropical headwater catchments.     

A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling the Xinanjiang model to a kinematic flow model based on digital drainage networks for flood forecasting

The Xinanjiang model, which is a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model and has been successfully and widely applied in humid and semi‐humid regions in China, is coupled by the physically based kinematic wave method based on a digital drainage network. The kinematic wave Xinanjiang model (KWXAJ) uses topography and land use data to simulate runoff and overland flow routing. For the modelling, the catchment is subdivided into numerous hillslopes and consists of a raster grid of flow vectors that define the water flow directions. The Xinanjiang model simulates the runoff yield in each grid cell, and the kinematic wave approach is then applied to a ranked raster network. The grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model was applied to simulate basin‐scale water discharge from an 805‐km² catchment of the Huaihe River, China. Rainfall and discharge records were available for the years 1984, 1985, 1987, 1998 and 1999. Eight flood events were used to calibrate the model's parameters and three other flood events were used to validate the grid‐based rainfall‐runoff model. A Manning's roughness via a linear flood depth relationship was suggested in this paper for improving flood forecasting. The calibration and validation results show that this model works well. A sensitivity analysis was further performed to evaluate the variation of topography (hillslopes) and land use parameters on catchment discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling Canadian prairie wetland hydrology using a semi‐distributed streamflow model

A hydrological model (SLURP) that was designed for simulating hydrological processes taking place in large river basins was, with minimal modification, used successfully to simulate water level variations over a 28‐year period (1969–1996) for a 3‐ha prairie wetland in Saskatchewan. The model calculates a water balance based on precipitation, snowmelt, evaporation, surface runoff and subsurface flow on a daily time‐step. The model was first calibrated for two periods (1969–1973 for cropland and 1987–1990 for grassland), then it was applied to records outside the calibration periods. The model reproduced the wetland water level variations during a 28‐year period with good accuracy. The wetland water levels were most sensitive to the infiltration coefficient of surface soil under frozen conditions and to maximum soil moisture storage. The applicability of the model and the calibrated parameters to a smaller wetland, with an area of 0·24 ha, was examined. This simulation indicated that scale effects are important, probably largely in relation to snow redistribution by wind. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using high resolution tracer data to constrain water storage,flux and age estimates in a spatially distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Models simulating stream flow and conservative tracers can provide a representation of flow paths, storage distributions and mixing processes that is advantageous for many predictive purposes. Compared with models that only simulate stream flow, tracer data can be used to investigate the internal consistency of model behaviour and to gain insight into model performance. Here, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of a data‐driven, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff model. The model structure allowed us to assess the influence of landscape characteristics on the routing and mixing of water and tracers. The model was applied to a site in the Scottish Highlands with a unique tracer data set; ~4 years of daily isotope ratios in stream water and precipitation were available, as well as 2 years of weekly soil and ground water isotopes. The model structure was based on an empirically based, lumped tracer‐aided model previously developed for the catchment. The best model runs were selected from Monte Carlo simulations based on dual calibration criteria using objective functions for both stream isotopes and discharge at the outlet. Model performance for these criteria was reasonable (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies for discharge and isotope ratios were ~0.4–0.6). The model could generally reproduce the variable isotope signals in the soils of the steeper hill slopes where storage was low, and damped isotope responses in valley bottom cells with high storage. The model also allowed us to estimate the age distributions of internal stores, water fluxes and stream flow. Average stream water age was ~1.6 years, integrating older groundwater in the valley bottom and dynamic younger soil waters. By tracking water ages and simulating isotopes, the model captured the changes in connectivity driven by distributed storage dynamics. This has substantially improved the representation of spatio‐temporal process dynamics and gives a more robust framework for projecting environmental change impacts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Improving runoff prediction using agronomical information in a cropped,loess covered catchment

Predicting runoff hot spots and hot‐moments within a headwater crop‐catchment is of the utmost importance to reduce adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems by adapting land use management to control runoff. Reliable predictions of runoff patterns during a crop growing season remain challenging. This is mainly due to the large spatial and temporal variations of topsoil hydraulic properties controlled by complex interactions between weather, growing vegetation, and cropping operations. This interaction can significantly modify runoff patterns and few process‐based models can integrate this evolution of topsoil properties during a crop growing season at the catchment scale. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to better constrain the event‐based hydrological model Limburg Soil Erosion Model by incorporating temporal constraints for input topsoil properties during a crop growing season (LISEM). The results of the temporal constraint strategy (TCS) were compared with a classical event per event calibration strategy (EES) using multi‐scale runoff information (from plot to catchment). The EES and TCS approaches were applied in a loess catchment of 47 ha located 30 km northeast of Strasbourg (Alsace, France). A slight decrease of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency criterion on runoff discharge for TCS compared to EES was counterbalanced by a clear improvement of the spatial runoff patterns within the catchment. This study showed that limited agronomical and climatic information added during the calibration step improved the spatial runoff predictions of an event‐based model. Reliable prediction of runoff source, connectivity, and dynamics can then be derived and discussed with stakeholders to identify runoff hot spots and hot‐moments for subsequent land use and crop management modifications.     

Spatial and temporal variability of stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) in surface waters of arid,mountainous Central Asia

Characterization of spatial and temporal variability of stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) of surface waters is essential to interpret hydrological processes and establish modern isotope–elevation gradients across mountainous terrains. Here, we present stable isotope data for river waters across Kyrgyzstan. River water isotopes exhibit substantial spatial heterogeneity among different watersheds in Kyrgyzstan. Higher river water isotope values were found mainly in the Issyk‐Kul Lake watershed, whereas waters in the Son‐Kul Lake watershed display lower values. Results show a close δ¹⁸O–δ²H relation between river water and the local meteoric water line, implying that river water experiences little evaporative enrichment. River water from the high‐elevation regions (e.g., Naryn and Son‐Kul Lake watershed) had the most negative isotope values, implying that river water is dominated by snowmelt. Higher deuterium excess (average d = 13.9‰) in river water probably represents the isotopic signature of combined contributions from direct precipitation and glacier melt in stream discharge across Kyrgyzstan. A significant relationship between river water δ¹⁸O and elevation was observed with a vertical lapse rate of 0.13‰/100 m. These findings provide crucial information about hydrological processes across Kyrgyzstan and contribute to a better understanding of the paleoclimate/elevation reconstruction of this region.     

Performance of the COSERO precipitation–runoff model under non-stationary conditions in basins with different climates

Abstract

This study is a contribution to a model intercomparison experiment initiated during a workshop at the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. We present discharge simulations with the conceptual precipitation–runoff model COSERO in 11 basins located under different climates in Europe, Africa and Australia. All of the basins exhibit some form of non-stationary conditions, due, for example, to warming, droughts or land-cover change. The evaluation of the daily discharge simulations focuses on the overall model performance and its decomposition into three components measuring temporal dynamics, mean flow volume and distribution of flows. Calibration performance is similarly high as in previous COSERO applications. However, when looking at evaluation periods independent of the calibration, the model performance drops considerably, mainly due to severely biased discharge simulations in semi-arid basins with strong non-stationarity in rainfall. Simulations are more robust in European basins with humid climates. This highlights the fact that hydrological models frequently fail when simulations are required outside of calibration conditions in basins with non-stationary conditions. As a consequence, calibration periods should be sufficiently long to include both wet and dry periods, which should yield more robust predictions.     

Multi‐variable and multi‐site calibration and validation of SWAT in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variability

Many methods developed for calibration and validation of physically based distributed hydrological models are time consuming and computationally intensive. Only a small set of input parameters can be optimized, and the optimization often results in unrealistic values. In this study we adopted a multi‐variable and multi‐site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Motueka catchment, making use of extensive field measurements. Not only were a number of hydrological processes (model components) in a catchment evaluated, but also a number of subcatchments were used in the calibration. The internal variables used were PET, annual water yield, daily streamflow, baseflow, and soil moisture. The study was conducted using an 11‐year historical flow record (1990–2000); 1990–94 was used for calibration and 1995–2000 for validation. SWAT generally predicted well the PET, water yield and daily streamflow. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0·78 during calibration and 0·72 during validation. However, values for subcatchments ranged from 0·31 to 0·67 during calibration, and 0·36 to 0·52 during validation. The predicted soil moisture remained wet compared with the measurement. About 50% of the extra soil water storage predicted by the model can be ascribed to overprediction of precipitation; the remaining 50% discrepancy was likely to be a result of poor representation of soil properties. Hydrological compensations in the modelling results are derived from water balances in the various pathways and storage (evaporation, streamflow, surface runoff, soil moisture and groundwater) and the contributions to streamflow from different geographic areas (hill slopes, variable source areas, sub‐basins, and subcatchments). The use of an integrated multi‐variable and multi‐site method improved the model calibration and validation and highlighted the areas and hydrological processes requiring greater calibration effort. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.