Saltwater intrusion estimation in a karstified coastal system using density-dependent modelling and comparison with the sharp-interface approach

Abstract

Saltwater intrusion is a naturally occurring phenomenon that is exacerbated significantly by excessive groundwater exploitation in coastal aquifers. In order to determine the extent of saltwater intrusion in a karstified coastal aquifer in Crete, Greece, a three-dimensional, density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model was developed and compared to the more traditional sharp-interface approach. The karstified medium was modelled using a combination of the equivalent porous medium approach (for lower-order fractures) and a discrete fracture approach (for the main fractures/faults). The model takes into consideration the geomorphologic characteristics of the karstic system, such as the depth and orientation of the fault network, and the diffusion phenomena associated with the variable densities of freshwater and saltwater—parameters that create a complex system, inducing uncertainty in the model. The model results showed that the orientation of the fractures, the pumping activity and the fluid density effects drive the seawater intrusion front asymmetrically inland.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Dokou, Z. and Karatzas, G.P., 2012. Saltwater intrusion estimation in a karstified coastal system using density-dependent modelling and comparison with the sharp-interface approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 985–999.     

Reducing Uncertainty in Calibrating Aquifer Flow Model with Multiple Scales of Heterogeneity

Modeling and calibration of natural aquifers with multiple scales of heterogeneity is a challenging task due to limited subsurface access. While computer modeling plays an essential role in aquifer studies, large uncertainty exists in developing a conceptual model of an aquifer and in calibrating the model for decision making. Due to uncertainties such as a lack of understanding of subsurface processes and a lack of techniques to parameterize the subsurface environment (including hydraulic conductivity, source/sink rate, and aquifer boundary conditions), existing aquifer models often suffer nonuniqueness in calibration, leading to poor predictive capability. A robust calibration methodology is needed that can address the simultaneous estimations of aquifer parameters, source/sink, and boundary conditions. In this paper, we propose a multistage and multiscale approach that addresses subsurface heterogeneity at multiple scales, while reducing uncertainty in estimating the model parameters and model boundary conditions. The key to this approach lies in the appropriate development, verification, and synthesis of existing and new techniques of static and dynamic data integration. In particular, based on a given set of observation data, new inversion techniques can be first used to estimate aquifer large‐scale effective parameters and smoothed boundary conditions, based on which parameter and boundary condition estimation can be refined at increasing detail using standard or highly parameterized estimation techniques.     

Bayesian model averaging assessment on groundwater management under model structure uncertainty

This study introduces Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal with model structure uncertainty in groundwater management decisions. A robust optimized policy should take into account model parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainty in imprecise model structure. Due to a limited amount of groundwater head data and hydraulic conductivity data, multiple simulation models are developed based on different head boundary condition values and semivariogram models of hydraulic conductivity. Instead of selecting the best simulation model, a variance-window-based BMA method is introduced to the management model to utilize all simulation models to predict chloride concentration. Given different semivariogram models, the spatially correlated hydraulic conductivity distributions are estimated by the generalized parameterization (GP) method that combines the Voronoi zones and the ordinary kriging (OK) estimates. The model weights of BMA are estimated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the variance window in the maximum likelihood estimation. The simulation models are then weighted to predict chloride concentrations within the constraints of the management model. The methodology is implemented to manage saltwater intrusion in the “1,500-foot” sand aquifer in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana. The management model aims to obtain optimal joint operations of the hydraulic barrier system and the saltwater extraction system to mitigate saltwater intrusion. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to obtain the optimal injection and extraction policies. Using the BMA predictions, higher injection rates and pumping rates are needed to cover more constraint violations, which do not occur if a single best model is used.     

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).     

Numerical modelling of the potential effects of a dam on a coastal aquifer in S. Spain

This study presents the results of a three‐dimensional variable‐density numerical modelling of the Motril‐Salobreña coastal aquifer and the possible effects of the entry into service in May 2005 of the Rules Dam, located just 17 km from the coast. Present parameters of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer show that the system's conditions are very similar to a natural regime. The dam will substantially alter aquifer recharge, as the entry flow through the alluvial sediments of the Guadalfeo River will be entirely cut off or drastically reduced. Different scenarios reproducing the possible evolution of the aquifer under operation of the Rules Dam have been modelled. In most cases, results indicate that the conditions of the aquifer would worsen, with a general advance of the freshwater–saltwater interface. The area with most risk of saltwater intrusion is the old mouth of the Guadalfeo River, where the mixing zone could advance 1200 m inland. It is proposed that maintaining a 5–6 Mm³ year^?1 ‘ecological flow’ in the Guadalfeo River could prevent this saline advance. This application demonstrates that variable‐density models are potentially useful tools for estimating the effects of dams on the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical conditions of a coastal aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transience of seawater intrusion and retreat in response to incremental water‐level variations

This paper provides for the first time an experimental study where the impact of sea‐level fluctuations and inland boundary head‐level variations on freshwater–saltwater interface toe motion and transition zone dynamics was quantitatively analysed under transient conditions. The experiments were conducted in a laboratory flow tank where various (inland and coastal) head changes were imposed to the system and the response of the key seawater intrusion parameters was analysed with high spatial and temporal resolution. Two homogeneous aquifer systems of different grain size were tested. The numerical code SEAWAT was used for the validation. The results show that in cases of sea‐level variations, the intruding wedge required up to twice longer time to reach a new steady‐state condition than the receding wedge, which thereby extend the theory of timescale asymmetry between saltwater intrusion and retreat processes in scenarios involving sea‐level fluctuations. The intruding and receding rates of the saltwater wedge were respectively similar in the scenario involving sea‐level and the freshwater‐level changes, despite change in transmissivity. The results show that, during the intrusion phase, the transition zone remains relatively insensitive, regardless of where the boundary head change occurs (i.e., freshwater drop or sea‐level rise) or its magnitude. By contrast, a substantial widening of the transition zone was observed during the receding phase, with almost similar amplitude in the scenario involving a rise of the freshwater level compared with that caused by a drop of the saltwater level, provided that an equivalent absolute head change magnitude was used. This transition zone widening (occurring during saltwater retreat) was greater and extended over longer period in the low hydraulic conductivity aquifer, for both freshwater‐level rise and sea‐level drop scenarios. The concentration maps revealed that the widening mechanism was also enhanced by the presence of some freshwater sliding and into the wedge during saltwater retreat, which was thereafter sucked upward towards the interface because of density difference effects.     

The impact of aquifer stratification on saltwater intrusion characteristics. Comprehensive laboratory and numerical study

Laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were utilized in this study to assess the impact of aquifer stratification on saltwater intrusion. Three homogeneous and six layered aquifers were investigated. Image processing algorithms facilitated the precise calculation of saltwater wedge toe length, width of the mixing zone, and angle of intrusion. It was concluded that the length of intrusion in stratified aquifers is predominantly a function of permeability contrast, total aquifer transmissivity and the number of heterogeneous layers, being positively correlated to all three. When a lower permeability layer overlays or underlays more permeable zones its mixing zone widens, while it becomes thinner for the higher permeability strata. The change in the width of the mixing zone (WMZ) is positively correlated to permeability contrast, while it applies to all strata irrespectively of their relative vertical position in the aquifer. Variations in the applied hydraulic head causes the transient widening of WMZ. These peak WMZ values are larger during saltwater retreat and are negatively correlated to the layer's permeability and distance from the aquifer's bottom. Moreover, steeper angles of intrusion are observed in cases where low permeability layers overlay more permeable strata, and milder ones in the inverse aquifer setups. The presence of a low permeability upper layer results in the confinement of the saltwater wedge in the lower part of the stratified aquifer. This occurs until a critical hydraulic head difference is applied to the system. This hydraulic gradient value was found to be a function of layer width and permeability contrast alike.     

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill‐posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non‐unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non‐linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one‐dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm³ cm^?3. It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (θ_s) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An investigation of numerical grid effects in parameter estimation

Modern ground water characterization and remediation projects routinely require calibration and inverse analysis of large three-dimensional numerical models of complex hydrogeological systems. Hydrogeologic complexity can be prompted by various aquifer characteristics including complicated spatial hydrostratigraphy and aquifer recharge from infiltration through an unsaturated zone. To keep the numerical models computationally efficient, compromises are frequently made in the model development, particularly, about resolution of the computational grid and numerical representation of the governing flow equation. The compromise is required so that the model can be used in calibration, parameter estimation, performance assessment, and analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in model predictions. However, grid properties and resolution as well as applied computational schemes can have large effects on forward-model predictions and on inverse parameter estimates. We investigate these effects for a series of one- and two-dimensional synthetic cases representing saturated and variably saturated flow problems. We show that "conformable" grids, despite neglecting terms in the numerical formulation, can lead to accurate solutions of problems with complex hydrostratigraphy. Our analysis also demonstrates that, despite slower computer run times and higher memory requirements for a given problem size, the control volume finite-element method showed an advantage over finite-difference techniques in accuracy of parameter estimation for a given grid resolution for most of the test problems.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach for predicting runoff generation in semi‐arid regions

This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km²) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Method for estimating available groundwater volume of small coral islands

We present a simple modelling method to estimate the volume of available groundwater in the freshwater lens of atoll islands under steady-state conditions. Model inputs include annual rainfall depth, island width for cross-sections along the length of the island, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and depth to the contact between the upper sand aquifer and the lower limestone aquifer. The methodology is tested for nine islands of varying size in the Maldives and Micronesia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lens volume on large islands typically is governed by the depth to the discontinuity, whereas lens volume for smaller islands is governed by rainfall rate and hydraulic conductivity. Volume curves, which relate lens volume to lens thickness, are developed for each of the nine islands and for three generic island shapes to allow rapid estimation of lens volume given field-estimated lens thickness. The methods presented in this study can be used for any small atoll island.     

Saltwater intrusion modelling in Jorf coastal aquifer,South‐eastern Tunisia: geochemical,geoelectrical and geostatistical application

Marine intrusion is the most serious problem facing the coastal Jorf shallow aquifer, located in south‐eastern Tunisia on the Mediterranean Sea. Jorf Aquifer is intensively exploited to supply the growing needs of agriculture and domestic sectors. This work proposes a multidisciplinary investigation, involving hydro‐geochemical, geoelectrical survey and geostatistical techniques for modelling the saltwater intrusion. For this purpose, 36 water samples were conducted and analysed. Electric conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids and major ions were measured and analysed. Pie and Durov Diagrams, Q‐mode hierarchical cluster and geostatistical analysis were considered to identify the main groundwater mineralization processes. Results revealed that the Na‐Cl‐Ca‐SO₄ is the dominant water type suggesting that dissolution of halite and gypsum was the main mineralization source of groundwater in the central and southern part of study area. However, saltwater intrusion was shown to control groundwater quality essentially in coastal areas. Variographic analyses were used to select the variographic model that best fits the spatial development of apparent resistivity. Kriged apparent resistivity profiles showed an abnormal decrease of resistivity values in the coastal zone, implying highly saline water because of seawater intrusion. Apparent resistivity values also decrease considerably in the faulted areas, suggesting a contribution of faults to seawater intrusion. Finally, saltwater mixing ratio was computed for each sample, and a refined seawater intrusion map was developed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A groundwater-based, objective-heuristic parameter optimisation method for a precipitation-runoff model and its application to a semi-arid basin

A hydrologic model calibration methodology that is based on groundwater data is developed and implemented using the US Geological Survey's precipitation-runoff modelling system (PRMS) and the modular modelling system (MMS), which performs automatic calibration of parameters. The developed methodology was tested in the Akrotiri basin, Cyprus. The necessity for the groundwater-based model calibration, rather than a typical runoff-based one, arose from the very intermittent character of the runoff in the Akrotiri basin, a case often met in semi-arid regions. Introducing a datum and converting groundwater storage to head made the observable groundwater level the calibration indicator. The modelling of the Akrotiri basin leads us to conclude that groundwater level is a useful indicator for hydrological model calibration that can be potentially used in other similar situations in the absence of river flow measurements. However, the option of an automatic calibration of the complex hydrologic model PRMS by MMS did not ensure a good outcome. On the other hand, automatic optimisation, combined with heuristic expert intervention, enabled achievement of good calibration and constitutes a valuable means for saving effort and improving modelling performance. To this end, results must be scrutinised, melding the viewpoint of physical sense with mathematical efficiency criteria. Thus optimised, PRMS achieved a low simulation error, good reproduction of the historic trend of the aquifer water level evolution and reasonable physical behaviour (good hydrologic balance, Reasonable match of aquifer level evolution, good estimation of mean natural recharge rate).     

Transient Recharge Estimability Through Field‐Scale Groundwater Model Calibration

The estimation of recharge through groundwater model calibration is hampered by the nonuniqueness of recharge and aquifer parameter values. It has been shown recently that the estimability of spatially distributed recharge through calibration of steady‐state models for practical situations (i.e., real‐world, field‐scale aquifer settings) is limited by the need for excessive amounts of hydraulic‐parameter and groundwater‐level data. However, the extent to which temporal recharge variability can be informed through transient model calibration, which involves larger water‐level datasets, but requires the additional consideration of storage parameters, is presently unknown for practical situations. In this study, time‐varying recharge estimates, inferred through calibration of a field‐scale highly parameterized groundwater model, are systematically investigated subject to changes in (1) the degree to which hydraulic parameters including hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific yield (S_y) are constrained, (2) the number of water‐level calibration targets, and (3) the temporal resolution (up to monthly time steps) at which recharge is estimated. The analysis involves the use of a synthetic reality (a reference model) based on a groundwater model of Uley South Basin, South Australia. Identifiability statistics are used to evaluate the ability of recharge and hydraulic parameters to be estimated uniquely. Results show that reasonable estimates of monthly recharge (<30% recharge root‐mean‐squared error) require a considerable amount of transient water‐level data, and that the spatial distribution of K is known. Joint estimation of recharge, S_y and K, however, precludes reasonable inference of recharge and hydraulic parameter values. We conclude that the estimation of temporal recharge variability through calibration may be impractical for real‐world settings.     

Assessment of seasonal groundwater quality and potential saltwater intrusion: a study case in Urmia coastal aquifer (NW Iran) using the groundwater quality index (GQI) and hydrochemical facies evolution diagram (HFE-D)

Coastal aquifers are at threat of salinization in most parts of the world. This work investigated the seasonal hydrochemical evolution of coastal groundwater resources in Urmia plain, NW Iran. Two recently proposed methods have been used to comparison, recognize and understand the temporal and spatial evolution of saltwater intrusion in a coastal alluvial aquifer. The study takes into account that saltwater intrusion is a dynamic process, and that seasonal variations in the balance of the aquifer cause changes in groundwater chemistry. Pattern diagrams, which constitute the outcome of several hydrochemical processes, have traditionally been used to characterize vulnerability to sea/saltwater intrusion. However, the formats of such diagrams do not facilitate the geospatial analysis of groundwater quality, thus limiting the ability of spatio-temporal mapping and monitoring. This deficiency calls for methodologies which can translate information from some diagrams such Piper diagram into a format that can be mapped spatially. Distribution of groundwater chemistry types in Urmia plain based on modified Piper diagram using GQI_Piper(mix) and GQI_Piper(dom) indices that Mixed Ca–Mg–Cl and Ca-HCO₃ are the dominant water types in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. In this study, a groundwater quality index specific to seawater intrusion (GQI_SWI) was used to check its efficiency for the groundwater samples affected by Urmia hypersaline Lake, Iran. Analysis of the main processes, by means of the Hydrochemical Facies Evolution Diagram (HFE-Diagram), provides essential knowledge about the main hydrochemical processes. Subsequently, analysis of the spatial distribution of hydrochemical facies using heatmaps helps to identify the general state of the aquifer with respect to saltwater intrusion during different sampling periods. The HFE-D results appear to be very successful for differentiating variations through time in the salinization processes caused by saltwater intrusion into the aquifer, distinguishing the phase of saltwater intrusion from the phase of recovery, and their respective evolutions. Both GQI and HFE-D methods show that hydrochemical variations can be read in terms of the pattern of saltwater intrusion and groundwater quality status. But generally, in this case (i.e. saltwater and not seawater intrusion) the HFE-D method was presented better efficiency than GQI method (including GQI_Piper and GQI_SWI).     

Inverse modeling for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Insights about parameter sensitivities,variances, correlations and estimation procedures derived from the Henry problem

Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data.     

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in water budgets simulated by the variable infiltration capacity model for Canadian subarctic watersheds

In this study, we evaluate uncertainties propagated through different climate data sets in seasonal and annual hydrological simulations over 10 subarctic watersheds of northern Manitoba, Canada, using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Further, we perform a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the VIC model using a robust and state-of-the-art approach. The VIC model simulations utilize the recently developed variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS) technique that requires in this application more than 6,000 model simulations for a 30-year (1981–2010) study period. The method seeks parameter sensitivity, identifies influential parameters, and showcases streamflow sensitivity to parameter uncertainty at seasonal and annual timescales. Results suggest that the Ensemble VIC simulations match observed streamflow closest, whereas global reanalysis products yield high flows (0.5–3.0 mm day⁻¹) against observations and an overestimation (10–60%) in seasonal and annual water balance terms. VIC parameters exhibit seasonal importance in VARS, and the choice of input data and performance metrics substantially affect sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty propagation due to input forcing selection in each water balance term (i.e., total runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration) is examined separately to show both time and space dimensionality in available forcing data at seasonal and annual timescales. Reliable input forcing, the most influential model parameters, and the uncertainty envelope in streamflow prediction are presented for the VIC model. These results, along with some specific recommendations, are expected to assist the broader VIC modelling community and other users of VARS and land surface schemes, to enhance their modelling applications.     

Impact of the numbers of observations and calibration parameters on equifinality,model performance,and output and parameter uncertainty

The level of model complexity that can be effectively supported by available information has long been a subject of many studies in hydrologic modelling. In particular, distributed parameter models tend to be regarded as overparameterized because of numerous parameters used to describe spatially heterogeneous hydrologic processes. However, it is not clear how parameters and observations influence the degree of overparameterization, equifinality of parameter values, and uncertainty. This study investigated the impact of the numbers of observations and parameters on calibration quality including equifinality among calibrated parameter values, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. In the experiments, the number of observations was increased by expanding the calibration period or by including measurements made at inner points of a watershed. Similarly, additional calibration parameters were included in the order of their sensitivity. Then, unique sets of parameters were calibrated with the same objective function, optimization algorithm, and stopping criteria but different numbers of observations. The calibration quality was quantified with statistics calculated based on the ‘behavioural’ parameter sets, identified using 1% and 5% cut‐off thresholds in a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation framework. The study demonstrated that equifinality, model performance, and output/parameter uncertainty were responsive to the numbers of observations and calibration parameters; however, the relationship between the numbers, equifinality, and uncertainty was not always conclusive. Model performance improved with increased numbers of calibration parameters and observations, and substantial equifinality did neither necessarily mean bad model performance nor large uncertainty in the model outputs and parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.