Physical criterion to evaluate seismic activity associated with the seismic cycle of great interplate earthquakes

A new criterion is introduced to judge if the vicinity of the source region of a great interplate earthquake is in an active period. It is based on the stress change caused by the great earthquake. A region is regarded as being in an active period of seismicity if the occurrence rate of earthquakes on faults in the stress shadow of the great earthquake is significantly higher than in the early stage of the seismic cycle, and if the stressing rate of these faults is sufficiently low. This criterion was applied to the seismicity in the central part of southwest Japan before and after the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The results show that before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, the region was in an active period from at least 1927.The region was in a quiet period for almost50 years after the 1946 Nankai earthquake.Data after 1995 show that the region is once more in an active period of seismicity preceding the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough,although the total number of earthquakes has not yet significantly increased. Our results indicate that earthquake probability in the central part of southwest Japan will become high in the coming decades until the next great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough.     

Rejuvenated extension of the Philippine Sea plate and its effect on subduction dynamics in the Nankai Trough

The Nankai Trough, Japan, is a subduction zone characterized by the recurrence of disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. Slow earthquakes and associated tremor also occur intermittently and locally in the Nankai Trough and the causal relationship between slow earthquakes and large earthquakes is important to understanding subduction zone dynamics. The Nankai Trough off Muroto, Shikoku Island, near the southeast margin of the rupture segment of the 1946 Nankai earthquake, is one of three regions where slow earthquakes and tremor cluster in the Nankai Trough. On the Philippine Sea plate, the rifting of the central domain of the Shikoku Basin was aborted at ~15 Ma and underthrust the Nankai forearc off Muroto. Here, the Tosa-Bae seamount and other high-relief features, which are northern extension of the Kinan Seamount chain, have collided with and indented the forearc wedge. In this study, we analyzed seismic reflection profiles around the deformation front of accretionary wedge and stratigraphically correlated them to drilling sites off Muroto. Our results show that the previously aborted horst-and-graben structures, which were formed around the spreading center of the Shikoku Basin at ~15 Ma, were rejuvenated locally at ~6 Ma and more regionally at ~3.3 Ma and have remained active since. The reactivated normal faulting has enhanced seafloor roughness and appears to affect the locations of slow earthquakes and tremors. Rejuvenated normal faulting is not limited to areas near the Nankai Trough, and extends more than 200 km into the Shikoku Basin to the south. This extension might be due to extensional forces applied to the Philippine Sea plate, which appear to be driven by slab-pull in the Ryukyu and Philippine trenches along the western margin of the Philippine Sea plate.     

Development of Long-period Ground Motions from the Nankai Trough, Japan, Earthquakes: Observations and Computer Simulation of the 1944 Tonankai (Mw 8.1) and the 2004 SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) Earthquakes

Strong ground motions recorded in central Tokyo during the 1944 Tonankai Mw8.1 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough demonstrate significant developments of very large (>10 cm) and prolonged (>10 min) shaking of long-period (T > 10–12 s) ground motions in the basin of Tokyo located over 400 km from the epicenter. In order to understand the process by which such long-period ground motions developed in central Tokyo and to mitigate possible future disasters arising from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, we analyzed waveform data from a dense nation wide strong-motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) deployed across Japan for the recent SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) earthquake of 5 September 2004 that occurred in the Nankai Trough. The observational data and a corresponding computer simulation for the earthquake clearly demonstrate that such long-period ground motion is primarily developed as the wave propagating along the Nankai Trough due to the amplification and directional guidance of long-period surface waves within a thick sedimentary layer overlaid upon the shallowly descending Philippine Sea Plate below the Japanese Island. Then the significant resonance of the seismic waves within the thick cover of sedimentary rocks of the Kanto Basin developed large and prolonged long-period motions in the center of Tokyo. The simulation results and observed seismograms are in good agreement in terms of the main features of the long-period ground motions. Accordingly, we consider that the simulation model is capable of predicting the long-period ground motions that are expected to occur during future Nankai Trough M 8 earthquakes.     

Downward migration of seismic activity prior to some great shallow earthquakes in Japanese subduction zones—a possible intermediateterm precursor

Before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake along the Nankai Trough, seismic activity increased in the shallow depths, and then the activity gradually migrated downwards. When it reached its limit (a depth of approximatelty 70 km), the main shock occurred. Several deep earthquakes, including one ofM5.3, occurred several months prior to the Tonankai earthquake. A similar downward migration pattern also can be recognized regarding the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake. In this case the deepest earthquakes reached about 400 km. This may be one of the intermediate-term precursory phenomena of great thrusttype earthquakes in subduction zones. Recent observations in the Tokai district along the Suruga Trough, where a large earthquake is expected to occur in the future, suggest a similar downward migration pattern in the land area.     

Continuous Observation of Groundwater and Crustal Deformation for Forecasting Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes in Japan

In 2006, we started construction of an observation network of 12 stations in and around Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula to conduct research for forecasting Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. The purpose of the network is to clarify the mechanism of past preseismic groundwater changes and crustal deformation related to Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. Construction of the network of 12 stations was completed in January 2009. Work on two stations, Hongu-Mikoshi (HGM) and Ichiura (ICU), was finished earlier and they began observations in 2007. These two stations detected strain changes caused by the slow-slip events on the plate boundary in June 2008, although related changes in groundwater levels were not clearly recognized.     

Deformable backstop as seaward end of coseismic slip in the Nankai Trough seismogenic zone

Wide-angle seismic surveys performed in the last decade have clarified the 3-D crustal structure along the Nankai Trough. The geometry and velocity structure of the southwestern Japan subduction zone are now well constrained. Comparing these observations with the rupture distribution of historic great thrust earthquakes, it appears that the coseismic rupture occurred along plate boundaries deeper than the wedge/backstop boundary (the boundary between the Neogene-Quaternary accretionary wedge and the crust forming the backstop). From the view of spatial relationship, both rupture distributions of the last two large events and the crust forming the backstop are considerably retreated from the trough axis in the west and east off the Kii Peninsula. In both areas, seamount or ridge subduction is apparent in seismic results, geomorphological data and geomagnetic data. The landward indentation of the deformable backstop, which corresponds to the crustal block of old accreted sediments, may be formed by seamount subduction according to published results of sandbox modeling. In particular, the subducted seamount may be a structural factor affecting the recession of the crustal block forming the backstop.     

1994年10—12月的全球地震动态

１９９４年第四季度，全球地震在维持了一年多的中等水平以后，出现了高水平的活动。全球地震如１９９３年，继续以西北太平洋地震带为中心，千岛群岛和日本本州以东接连发生海沟浅源大地震。１９９３－１９９４两年，全球最大地震发生在西北太平洋地区。菲律宾海周边地区发生强烈地震多次，日本南部近海海槽区发生大地震的形势更加迫近。中国大陆东半部地震活动有增强的迹象，１９９５年，中国华北地震活动将有新发展。本季度美洲地     

日本南海海槽地震区域应力场及其板块构造动力学特征

为了研究海沟型巨大地震发生机制及其构造动力学特征，详细研究了地震活动与震源机制结果，根据地震俯冲带几何形状及其内应力场区域特征，南海海槽下的俯冲带可划分为两段: 东部的四国-纪伊半岛段和西部的九州段. 东部的菲律宾海板块地震俯冲带呈现出低角度俯冲(10°～22°)，且俯冲深度相当浅(60～85km)的特征;而西部九州段的俯冲带为高角度俯冲(40°)，且俯冲深度较深(160km). 东、西部俯冲带内部应力场也截然不同. 东部的四国大部分地区和纪伊半岛的俯冲带内表现为俯冲压缩型应力场， 而西部的九州段则为明显的俯冲拉张型应力场. 本文在综合分析了重力异常、GPS、热流量等地球物理观测结果后指出，南海海槽东部， 即四国-纪伊半岛以南的海槽区域， 具有与智利海沟极其相似的地震发生板块构造动力学背景和高应力积累等特征， 属于年轻活动俯冲带的高应力型俯冲. 而西部的九州段，虽然也是海沟型地震活动区， 但不具有大地震发生的构造动力学背景和高应力积累， 不属于年轻活动俯冲带的高应力型俯冲. 俯冲带年龄的不同很可能是造成南海海槽东、西段板块构造动力学以及应力场不同的根本原因之一.     

Suboceanic earthquake location and seismic structure in the Kanto district,central Japan

We present a combined method, using sP depth-phase data and double-difference arrival times, to determine the precise hypocenter locations of earthquakes that occur under the Pacific Ocean outside of the area covered by the land-based seismic network. We assess the effectiveness of the combined method using a data set of P- and S-wave arrival times and sP depth phase from suboceanic earthquakes recorded by both land-based seismic stations and offshore seismic stations (OFS). The hypocenters of the offshore earthquakes relocated using the combined method are consistent with those determined using the standard location method and OFS data. The differences in the hypocenters relocated by the two methods are less than 4 km. We applied the method to the subduction region that underlies the Kanto district, central Japan, and located a large number of earthquakes that occurred beneath the Pacific Ocean. We then determined the detailed 3D seismic velocity structure by inverting a large number of arrival times of P- and S-waves and sP depth phase from the relocated earthquakes in the study region. High-velocity anomalies related to the cold subducting Pacific slab and low-velocity anomalies related to the hot mantle wedge are clearly imaged. Beneath active volcanoes, low-velocity zones are visible from the surface to a depth of 100 km, reflecting fluids released by dehydration of the subducting Pacific slab. Strong lateral heterogeneities are revealed on the upper boundary of the Pacific slab beneath the forearc region. The low-velocity areas under the offshore region are associated with low seismicity and weak interplate coupling. A low-velocity layer is imaged along the upper boundary of the Philippine Sea slab in the northern part of Kanto district, which may reflect dehydration of the slab. Our tomographic images indicate that the overlaying Philippine Sea plate has effects on the spatial distribution of active volcanoes related to the subducting Pacific slab in the study region.     

琉球海沟的构造和运动特征

琉球海沟是欧亚板块与菲律宾海板块之间的边界，海沟西坡是大陆性质的琉球岛弧，东坡是大洋性质的菲律宾海地壳．海底地震反射探测和地震震源定位表明，菲律宾海板块沿海沟向琉球岛弧下俯冲，俯冲角度与深度沿海沟走向变化．有证据显示，由于俯冲板前缘的横向移动，海沟和岛弧正朝大洋方向后退，弧后盆地-冲绳海槽发生拉张变形．最近一次的海沟后退与冲绳海槽扩张可能是从上新世末(2Ma前)开始的，岛弧的后退移动和弧后拉张在南部与海沟走向垂直，在中部和北部与海沟走向斜交，总体上向南的运动分量占优势、与海沟后退相关的弧后拉张集中在冲绳海槽，没有证据表明对其西侧的中国东海陆架盆地产生影响、海沟后退的原因可能与俯冲板的动力不平衡以及它与周围地幔的相互作用有关．     

Influence of fluids and magma on earthquakes: seismological evidence

In this paper, we present seismological evidence for the influence of fluids and magma on the generation of large earthquakes in the crust and the subducting oceanic slabs under the Japan Islands. The relationship between seismic tomography and large crustal earthquakes (M=5.7-8.0) in Japan during a period of 116 years from 1885 to 2000 is investigated and it is found that most of the large crustal earthquakes occurred in or around the areas of low seismic velocity. The low-velocity zones represent weak sections of the seismogenic crust. The crustal weakening is closely related to the subduction process in this region. Along the volcanic front and in back-arc areas, the crustal weakening is caused by active volcanoes and arc magma resulting from the convective circulation process in the mantle wedge and dehydration reactions in the subducting slab. In the forearc region of southwest Japan, fluids are suggested in the 1995 Kobe earthquake source zone, which have contributed to the rupture nucleation. The fluids originate from the dehydration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab. The recent 2001 Geiyo earthquake (M=6.8) occurred at 50 km depth within the subducting Philippine Sea slab, and it was also related to the slab dehydration process. A detailed 3D velocity structure is determined for the northeast Japan forearc region using data from 598 earthquakes that occurred under the Pacific Ocean with hypocenters well located with SP depth phases. The results show that strong lateral heterogeneities exist along the slab boundary, which represent asperities and results of slab dehydration and affect the degree and extent of the interplate seismic coupling. These results indicate that large earthquakes do not strike anywhere, but only anomalous areas which can be detected with geophysical methods. The generation of a large earthquake is not a pure mechanical process, but is closely related to physical and chemical properties of materials in the crust and upper mantle, such as magma, fluids, etc.     

Upper mantle anisotropy beneath central and southwest Japan: An insight into subduction-induced mantle flow

Analysis of seismic anisotropy in the crust and mantle wedge above subduction zones gives much information about the dynamic processes inside the Earth. For this reason, we measure shear wave polarization anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle beneath central and southwestern Japan from local shallow, intermediate, and deep earthquakes occurring in the subducting Pacific slab. We analyze S phases from 198 earthquakes recorded at 42 Japanese F-net broadband seismic stations. This data set yields a total of 980 splitting parameter pairs for central and southwestern Japan. Dominant fast polarization directions of shear waves obtained at most stations in the Kanto–Izu–Tokai areas are oriented WNW–ESE, which are sub-parallel to the subduction direction of the Pacific plate. However, minor fast polarization directions are oriented in NNE–SSW directions being parallel to the strike of the Japan Trench, especially in the north of Izu Peninsula and the northern Tokai district. Generally, fast directions obtained at stations located in Kii Peninsula and the Chubu district are oriented ENE–WSW, almost parallel to the Nankai Trough, although some fast directions have NW–SE trends. The fast directions obtained at stations in northern central Honshu are oriented N–S. Delay times vary considerably and range from 0.1 to 1.25 s depending on the source depth and the degree of anisotropy along the ray path. These lateral variations in splitting character suggest that the nature of anisotropy is quite different between the studied areas. Beneath Kanto–Tokai, the observed WNW–ESE fast directions are probably caused by the olivine A-fabric induced by the corner flow. However, the slab morphology in this region is relatively complicated as the Philippine Sea slab is overriding the Pacific slab. This complex tectonic setting may induce lateral heterogeneity in the flow and stress state of the mantle wedge, and may have produced NNE–SSW orientations of fast directions. The ENE–WSW fast directions in Kii Peninsula and the Chubu district are more coherent and may be partly induced by the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate. The N–S fast directions in northern central Honshu might be produced by the trench-parallel stretching of the wedge due to the curved slab at the arc–arc junction.     

中国东部海域断裂构造格架与地震活动研究

渤海、黄海和东海等中国东部海域在地质构造上是大陆向海的自然延伸，海域内的构造方向与大陆一致，均为NNE-NE向，但属于不同的二级大地构造单元，渤海和北黄海属于华北地块，南黄海属于扬子地块，东海属于华南地块。由于各地块与现今活动板块边界位置不同，构造与地震活动性差异较大，渤海和北黄海地区地震活动主要受印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞形成的东喜马拉雅构造节远场效应影响，地震活动强烈；南黄海地区以中强地震活动为主；东海地区地震活动主要受菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块碰撞形成的琉球俯冲带影响。冲绳海槽是正在形成的（活动的）边缘海盆地，不仅有浅源地震，且有中源地震活动。东海陆架盆地由于受冲绳海槽扩张的影响，停止发育，构造与地震活动相对较弱。     

Regionality of deep low-frequency earthquakes associated with subduction of the Philippine Sea plate along the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan

The Fukuoka District Meteorological Observatory recently logged three possible deep low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) beneath eastern Kyushu, Japan, a region in which LFEs and low-frequency tremors have never before been identified. To assess these data, we analyzed band-pass filtered velocity seismograms and relocated LFEs and regular earthquakes using the double-difference method. The results strongly suggest that the three events were authentic LFEs, each at a depth of about 50 km. We also performed relocation analysis on LFEs recorded beneath the Kii Peninsula and found that these LFEs occurred near the northwest-dipping plate interface at depths of approximately 29–38 km. These results indicate that LFEs in southwest Japan occur near the upper surface of the subducting Philippine Sea (PHS) plate. To investigate the origin of regional differences in the occurrence frequency of LFEs in western Shikoku, the Kii Peninsula, and eastern Kyushu, we calculated temperature distributions associated with PHS plate subduction. Then, using the calculated thermal structures and a phase diagram of water dehydration for oceanic basalt, the water dehydration rate (wt.%/km), which was newly defined in this study, was determined to be 0.19, 0.12, and 0.08 in western Shikoku, the Kii Peninsula, and eastern Kyushu, respectively; that is, the region beneath eastern Kyushu has the lowest water dehydration rate value. Considering that the Kyushu–Palau Ridge that is subducting beneath eastern Kyushu is composed of tonalite, which is low in hydrous minerals, this finding suggests that the regionality may be related to the amount of water dehydration associated with subduction of the PHS plate and/or differences in LFE depths. Notable dehydration reactions take place beneath western Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula, where the depth ranges for dehydration estimated by thermal modeling agree well with those for the relocated LFEs. The temperature range in which LFEs occur in these regions is estimated to be 400–500 °C.     

菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的相互作用及其对东亚构造运动的影响

根据菲律宾海的演化,指出菲律宾海板块的特点:以俯冲边界为主,易于产生形变.将理论结果与地球物理、地质以及GPS测量结果进行比较,发现菲律宾海板块内部及边界有明显形变.讨论了菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的相互作用,指出其相互作用有明显的分段性.在南海海槽一带有较强的挤压,在琉球海沟一带由于两板块耦合较弱及冲绳海槽的开裂,没有形成对东亚大陆的挤压;台湾附近两板块碰撞,对中国东南形成较强的挤压;在菲律宾群岛一带形成两板块间的复杂变形带,使两板块间的作用减弱.     

Interplate Coupling in the Kanto District, Central Japan, and the Boso Peninsula Silent Earthquake in May 1996

— I studied crustal deformation in the Kanto district, central Japan, based on continuous GPS data. Horizontal as well as vertical displacement rate demonstrate significant interaction between the landward Kanto block and the Philippine Sea plate. Although the subduction effect of the Pacific plate is not apparent, it is reasonable to consider the entire Kanto district is displaced westward due to the interaction with the Pacific plate. The GPS velocity data were inverted to estimate the slip deficit distribution on the Sagami Trough subduction zone. The result delineates a strongly coupled region on the plate interface, part of which corresponds to the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The strongly coupled region is located shallower than 20 km. In addition, the plate interaction is laterally heterogeneous even in the same depth range, implying thermal structure is not the only factor controlling interplate coupling. The GPS data also detected a silent earthquake event on the interface of the Philippine Sea slab east of the Boso Peninsula in the middle of May, 1996. The silent rupture propagated over a 50 km * 50 km wide area during about a week. The maximum slip was approximately 50 mm and the released seismic moment was 4.7*10¹⁸Nm (M _w 6.4). There was a small seismicity triggered by this silent event. The silent slip was located in the peripheral of the strongly coupled area, suggesting that frictional properties and/or stress conditions are inhomogeneous on the plate boundary interface.     

永登5.8级地震序列及有关问题讨论

对永登５．８ 级地震序列及近１０ 年来永登—兰州地区的小震活动进行了研究,结果表明：永登５．８ 级地震为孤立型,震前近１０ 年震区一直有小震活动,主震是在小震活动经历了一个增多—加剧—平静的过程后才发生的。历史地震活动资料及地质构造表明,永登地区存在中强地震孕育的背景     

Historical 1942 Ecuador and 1942 Peru subduction earthquakes and earthquake cycles along Colombia-Ecuador and Peru subduction segments

Two large shallow earthquakes occurred in 1942 along the South American subduction zone inclose proximity to subducting oceanic ridges: The 14 May event occurred near the subducting Carnegie ridge off the coast of Ecuador, and the 24 August event occurred off the coast of southwestern Peru near the southern flank of the subducting Nazca ridge. Source parameters for these for these two historic events have been determined using long-periodP waveforms,P-wave first motions, intensities and local tsunami data.We have analyzed theP waves for these two earthquakes to constrain the focal mechanism, depth, source complexity and seismic moment. Modeling of theP waveform for both events yields a range of acceptable focal mechanisms and depths, all of which are consistent with underthrusting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The source time function for the 1942 Ecuador event has one simple pulse of moment release with a duration of 22 suconds, suggesting that most of the moment release occurred near the epicenter. The seismic moment determined from theP waves is 6–8×10²⁰N·m, corresponding ot a moment magnitude of 7.8–7.9. The reported location of the maximum intensities (IX) for this event is south of the main shock epicenter. The relocated aftershcks are in an area that is approximately 200 km by 90 km (elongated parallel to the trench) with the majority of aftershocks north of the epicenter. In contrast, the 1942 Peru event has a much longer duration and higher degree of complexity than the Ecuador earthquake, suggesting a heterogeneous rupture. Seismic moment is released in three distinct pulses over approximately 74 seconds; the largest moment release occurs 32 seconds after rupture initiation. the seismic moment as determined from theP waves for the 1942 Peru event is 10–25×10²⁰N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of 7.9–8.2. Aftershock locations reported by the ISS occur over a broad area surrounding the main shock. The reported locations of the maximum intensities (IX) are concentrated south of the epicenter, suggesting that at least part of the rupture was to the south.We have also examined great historic earthquakes along the Colombia-Ecuador and Peru segments of the South American subduction zone. We find that the size and rupture length of the underthrusting earthquakes vary between successive earthquake cycles. This suggests that the segmentation of the plate boundary as defined by earthquakes this century is not constant.     

Simple Spring-mass Model Simulation of Earthquake Cycle along the Nankai Trough in Southwest Japan

— Along the Nankai trough in southwest Japan, due to the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate, great earthquakes have occurred repeatedly. The rupture zone is divided into five segments. Historical documents show the characteristic features of the past several earthquake cycles, such as almost simultaneous rupture occurrence in segments in spite of different convergence rates, the recurrence time of 90 to 150 years, the existence of segment pairing in earthquake ruptures and the different coseismic slip behaviors in respective segments. Based on the rate and state friction law, we simulate these features with a simple block-spring model to investigate the physical mechanisms of earthquake cycle. Considering the actual fault parameters related to the geometry and the kinematics of the convergent plate in five segments, we calculate the model parameters for the corresponding blocks in the simulation. The features of the observed earthquake cycle are successfully reproduced by assigning the other following model parameters; (1) the stick-slip periods are the same (more than 150 years) for non-interacting blocks, (2) the different pairs of frictional parameters a-b and D _c are assigned in each segment, (3) the interactions between segments are large, (4) the convergence rate in the eastern Tokai segment is about half of those in the other segments.     

Analysis of deep focal mechanisms and revealing of possible large earthquake zones in the Kuril-Okhotsk region

The relationship between shallow and deep seismicity is investigated. The 2006 and 2007 large earthquakes of M = 8.3 and 8.1, which occurred off the southeast coast of Simushir, Kuril Islands, have been preceded by noticeable deep seismicity in the subducting slab. The methods and algorithms of focal mechanism analysis are developed for revealing possible large earthquake zones in the Kuril-Okhotsk region. Deep-focus earthquakes occurring in distant regions of the subducting slab with significant probability have triggered the large shallow earthquakes along the deep sea trench.