Source mechanism of strong aftershocks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>⩾5.6) of the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake and the implication for seismotectonics

Dozens of >M5, hundreds of >M4, and much more >M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic stations. After relocated with P arrival, the >M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and regional seismograph network of China, and employed “Cut and Paste” method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big aftershocks (M⩾5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY) are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (∼18 km). So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault. The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX3-SW-153, KZCX2-YW-116-1), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40604004), and National Basic Technology R & D Program (Grant No. 2006BAC01B02-01-02).     

Is there evidence for global‐scale forcing of Southern Hemisphere Quaternary desert dune accumulation? A quantitative method for testing hypotheses of dune system development

Luminescence dating of desert dune sediments has generated many hundreds of ages, many used in reconstructions of Quaternary environmental changes, others in attempts to elucidate dune processes. Environmental and climatic interpretations of these records have proved problematic and it remains challenging to test hypotheses of the systematic response of dunefields to changes in external forcing in the past and to make predictions of the future. We use a method that quantifies dune sediment accumulation to interpret dune luminescence age datasets, rather than simply using the ages themselves as proxies of change. The Accumulation Intensity method allows periods of dune sediment accumulation, here over the timescale 10²–10⁵ years, to be identified from compilations of dated sand sea stratigraphic sequences. We apply this approach to two of the largest dune age datasets, from southern Africa and Australia, testing whether or not dunefield accumulation has co‐varied in the Late Quaternary and whether systematic relationships to external drivers at global, hemispheric, regional and local scales can be identified. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shape of Empirical and Synthetic Isoseismals: Comparison for Italian <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≤ 6 Earthquakes

We present results from a comparative analysis of empirical and synthetic shapes for isoseismals of low intensity (I = IV–VI on the MCS scale) for six Italian earthquakes of ML = 4.5–6. Our modeling of isoseismals is based on a plane-stratified earth model and on the double–couple point source approximation to calculate seismograms in the frequency range f 1 Hz. With a minimum of parameter variation we demonstrate that the low intensity isoseismals provide information on source geometry. We strive to avoid subjectivity in isoseismal constructions by using the new Diffuse Boundary method, which visualizes isoseismals with their uncertainty. Similar results in this direction are known for large earthquakes (M_L 6 or greater) with extended sources and for the higher isoseismals (I VI on the MM scale). The latter studies disregard the earth structure, use a greater number of parameters, and therefore have greater possibilities for fitting the data than our approach.     

Variations of δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O in Rivers of Crimea in Winter

The results of studies of variations of δ¹⁸O values in river water in Crimea Peninsula in January–February 2015–2017 are given. The variation range of δ¹⁸О in river water over the three years of studies never exceeded 3‰. A tendency toward an increase in δ¹⁸О in the water of the Salgir, Kacha, Al’ma, Bel’bek, Biyuk-Karasu from their sources to mouths was identified and explained by a decrease in evaporation in the mouth areas of the rivers relative to their sources and upper reaches, and the inflow of isotopically light precipitation (rain and snow) into the rivers in their upper reaches. The values of δ¹⁸О in waters of the rivers with regulated stream were found to increase under the effect of the Simferopol Reservoir on the Salgir River and the Izobil’nenskoe Reservoir on the Ulu-Zen’ River. The values of δ¹⁸О in the upper reaches of the large rivers of Kacha and Bel’bek (the northwestern slope of the Crimean Mountains) vary from ?8.7 to ?9.7‰, except for the rivers of Al’ma (?7.7‰) and Kokozka (?10.2‰) because of the different shares of groundwater in the recharge of these rivers.     

Modeling of the effect of the“apparent <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>1 layer” observed in the Radar-Progress experiment with the help of the software for automated processing of vertical sounding ionograms

The results of the modeling the anomalous behavior of the F ₁ layer characteristics are presented. The anomaly lies in the jump-like variations in the critical frequency of the layer f ₀ F1 and an abnormally large f ₀ F1 value for the considered season and time. The observed effect is simulated based on the propagation of a large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbance. The quantitative values of the disturbance parameter are obtained and some peculiarities of its propagation are analyzed. The investigation was carried out with the help of the software for automated processing of the vertical sounding ionograms. The experimental data were obtained during the Radar-Progress project.     

Map of epicentre distribution for 2001

For showing the epicenter distribution in and near China as well as all over the world, two epicentral maps for the earthquakes occurred last year are published annually in 6-th issue each year. Figure 1 and 2 represent the epicentral distribution in and near China and all over the world in 2001, respectively. Map of epicentre distribution for 2001@陈培善$InstituteofGeophysics,ChinaSeismologicalBureau!Beijing100081,China…     

Map of epicentre distribution for 2000

For showing the epicentral distribution in and near China as well as all over the world, two epicentral maps for the earthquakes occurred last year are published annually in the 6-th issue each year. Figures 1 and 2 represent the epicentral distribution in and near China and all over the world in 2000, respectively. ~~Map of epicentre distribution for 2000@陈培善…     

REE and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ε</Emphasis><Subscript>Nd</Subscript> of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents (ΣREE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (δCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, δCe >0.85, ΣREE <400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, δCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios or _ɛNd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to _ɛNd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the _ɛNd values of ™8 to ™6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the ε Nd values of ™9 to ™7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with ε Nd values of ™6 to ™3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with ε Nd values of ™13 to ™12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

IR band of O<Subscript>2</Subscript> at 1.27 μm as the tracer of O<Subscript>3</Subscript> in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: Correction of the method

The problem of systematic overestimation (20–50%) of the retrieved ozone concentrations in the altitude range of 60–80 km in the TIMED–SABER satellite experiment in the daytime has been solved. The reason for overestimation is the neglect of the electronic vibrational kinetics of photolysis products of ozone and molecular oxygen O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν) and O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν). The IR emission band of O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν = 0) at 1.27 μm can be correctly used in remote sensing in order to obtain the ozone altitude profile in the altitude range of 50–88 km only with the use of a complete model of electronic vibrational kinetics of O₂ and O₃ photolysis products (YM2011) in the Earth’s mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Alternative ozone tracers have been considered, and an optimum tracer in the altitude range of 50–100 km such as O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν = 1) molecule emissions has been proposed.     

Estimation of Occurrence Probability of Earthquake Intensity for a Period of Ten Years

A method of estimation of occurrence probability of earthquake intensity at a given site from the results of a ten-year scale of earthquake prediction described with a probability of occurrence in a given "prediction cell" is proposed in this paper. 2316 cities and towns in China were analyzed by using this method. The probability of intensity Ⅵ-Ⅸ were given for every city. These results can be used for the earthquake insurance, loss estimation, and planning of disaster protection.     

Characteristics of response spectra for long-periods of main-shock recordings of the Chi-Chi earthquake

Current practice uses predictive models to extrapolate long-period response spectra based on far-field recordings in moderate and weak earthquakes. However, the spectra are not long enough and the data are often not reliable, which means that the seismic design code cannot accurately define seismic design requirements for long-period structures. The near-field recordings in the main-shock of the Chi-Chi earthquake have a large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which makes them suitable for studying the long-period acceleration response spectrum up to 20 sec. The acceleration response spectra from 246 stations within 120 km of the causative fault are statistically analyzed in this paper. The influence of distance and site conditions on long-period response spectrum is discussed, and the shapes of the amplification spectra are compared with the standard spectra specified in the seismic design code of China. Finally, suggestions for future revisions to the code are proposed.     

Temporal variations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis><Superscript>18</Superscript>O of atmospheric water vapor at Delingha

Oxygen stable isotope of atmospheric water vapor is widely used to study the modern process of climate. Atmospheric water vapor samples were collected at Dlingha, northeast of Tibetan Plateau during the period from July 2005 to February 2006. The variation of δ ¹⁸O and the relationships between δ ¹⁸O and both the temperature and specific humidity are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the seasonal variation of δ ¹⁸O of atmospheric water vapor at Delingha is remarkable with higher δ ¹⁸O in summer and lower δ ¹⁸O in winter. The temporal variation of vapor δ ¹⁸O shows obvious fluctuations, with magnitude of over 37‰ The daily variation of the δ ¹⁸O is highly correlated with air temperature. The relationship between δ ¹⁸O and atmospheric water vapor content is complex. Study shows that δ ¹⁸O of atmospheric water vapor is positively correlated with specific humidity in winter in seasonal scale and inversely correlated with specific humidity in summer rainy period. The δ ¹⁸O values of atmospheric water vapor are lower than those of precipitation at Delingha, and the average difference is 10.7‰ Variations of δ ¹⁸O of atmospheric water vapor is also found to be affected by precipitation events, The model results show that the precipitation effect could have caused the vapor δ ¹⁸O in the raining season to lower by 7% in average in July and August. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40671043, 40571039 and 40771048) and National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422002)     

Methods and technique of measurements of ρ<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis></Subscript> variations by GEOMES-R6 device

Upgrading of the electrical resistance variometer GEOMES-R6 of the Institute of Geophysics of the Poland Academy of Sciences, with enhancement of functional capabilities of the GEOMES assemblage for its application in laboratory measurements on rock samples, has been carried out. The assemblage operation principle, specifications, and theory of operation are given. Results of the assemblage test at measurements on marble sample and concrete model are presented. It is shown that the installation allows long-duration registration of variations of the value ρ _k on high-ohmic samples.     

Principles for Verification of Historic Earthquake Records

The principles are summarized in this paper for tackling problems related with the verification of historic earthquake records so as to enable proper utilization of the rich historic data of China.Case studies furnished in this paper show that those principles could be effectively utilized to solve the puzzling problems encountered in studying the historic earthquake data.The principles listed in this paper might also be used to tackle problems associated with the historic records of other branches of science.     

Selection of noise parameters for Kalman filter

The Bayesian probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the process noise and measurement noise parameters for a Kalman filter. With state vectors and covariance matrices estimated by the Kalman filter, the likehood of the measurements can be constructed as a function of the process noise and measurement noise parameters. By maximizing the likelihood function with respect to these noise parameters, the optimal values can be obtained. Furthermore, the Bayesian probabilistic approach allows the associated uncertainty to be quantified. Examples using a single-degree-of-freedom system and a ten-story building illustrate the proposed method. The effect on the performance of the Kalman filter due to the selection of the process noise and measurement noise parameters was demonstrated. The optimal values of the noise parameters were found to be close to the actual values in the sense that the actual parameters were in the region with significant probability density. Through these examples, the Bayesian approach was shown to have the capability to provide accurate estimates of the noise parameters of the Kalman filter, and hence for state estimation.     

‘Out with the Old?’ Why coarse spatial datasets are still useful for catchment‐scale investigations of sediment (dis)connectivity

The increasing popularity of remote sensing techniques has created numerous options for researchers seeking spatial datasets, especially digital elevation models (DEMs), for geomorphic investigations. This yields an important question regarding what DEM resolution is most appropriate when answering questions of geomorphic significance. The highest possible resolution is not always the best choice for a particular research aim, and DEM resolution should be tailored to fit both the scale of investigation and the simplicity/complexity of modelling processes applied to the dataset. We find that DEM resolution has a significant effect on a simple model of bed load sediment connectivity in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland. We apply a simple bed load transport threshold to catchment DEMs at three different resolutions – 1 m, 5 m, and 25 m. We find that using a 1 m resolution DEM generates numerous disconnections along tributary channel networks that underestimates the sediment contributing area, i.e. effective catchment area (ECA), of seven tributary basins of Lockyer Creek. Utilizing a coarser (lower‐resolution) DEM helps eliminate erroneous disconnections, but can reduce the detail of stream network definition. We find that the 25 m resolution DEM provides the best measure of ECA for comparing sediment connectivity between tributary catchments. The utility of simple models and coarse‐resolution datasets is important for undertaking large, catchment‐scale geomorphic investigations. As catchment‐scale investigations are becoming increasingly entwined with river management and rehabilitation efforts, scientists need not embrace an ‘out with the old’ philosophy. Simple models and coarse‐resolution datasets can help better integrate geomorphic research with management strategies and provide inexpensive and quick first‐order insights into catchment‐scale processes that can help focus future management efforts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan “4.20” <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>7.0 earthquake

The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief, post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake field team of the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) five days after the strong earthquake (M7.0) occurred in Lushan County of Sichuan Ya’an City at 8:02 on April 20, 2013 provides a scientific basis for emergency relief, economic loss assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper, the means for blind estimation of macroscopic intensity, field estimation of macro intensity, and review of intensity, as well as corresponding problems are discussed in detail, and the intensity distribution characteristics of the Lushan “4.20” M7.0 earthquake and its influential factors are analyzed, providing a reference for future seismic intensity assessments.     

Bias,variance and computational properties of Kijko’s estimators of the upper limit of magnitude distribution,M<Subscript>max</Subscript>

It is often assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that the magnitude distribution has an upper limit M _max, which indicates a limitation on event size in specific seismogeneic conditions. Accurate estimation of M _max from an earthquake catalog is a matter of utmost importance. We compare bias, dispersion and computational properties of four popular M _max estimators, introduced by Kijko and others (e.g., Kijko and Sellevoll 1989, Kijko and Graham 1998, Kijko 2004) and we recommend the ones which can be the most fruitful in practical applications. We provide nomograms for evaluation of bias and standard deviation of the recommended estimators for combinations of sample sizes and distribution parameters. We suggest to use the bias nomograms to correct the M _max estimates. The nomograms of standard deviation can be used to determine minimum sample size for a required accuracy of M _max.