Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).     

Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).     

Primary production in the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The eastern tropical Pacific includes 28 million km² of ocean between 23.5°N and S and Central/South America and 140°W, and contains the eastern and equatorial branches of the north and South Pacific subtropical gyres plus two equatorial and two coastal countercurrents. Spatial patterns of primary production are in general determined by supply of macronutrients (nitrate, phosphate) from below the thermocline. Where the thermocline is shallow and intersects the lighted euphotic zone, biological production is enhanced. In the eastern tropical Pacific thermocline depth is controlled by three interrelated processes: a basin-scale east/west thermocline tilt, a basin-scale thermocline shoaling at the gyre margins, and local wind-driven upwelling. These processes regulate supply of nutrient-rich subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and on their basis we have divided the eastern tropical Pacific into seven main regions. Primary production and its physical and chemical controls are described for each.Enhanced rates of macronutrient supply maintains levels of primary production in the eastern tropical Pacific above those of the oligotrophic subtropical gyres to the north and south. On the other hand lack of the micronutrient iron limits phytoplankton growth (and nitrogen fixation) over large portions of the open-ocean eastern tropical Pacific, depressing rates of primary production and resulting in the so-called high nitrate-low chlorophyll condition. Very high rates of primary production can occur in those coastal areas where both macronutrients and iron are supplied in abundance to surface waters. In these eutrophic coastal areas large phytoplankton cells dominate; conversely, in the open-ocean small cells are dominant. In a ‘shadow zone’ between the subtropical gyres with limited subsurface ventilation, enough production sinks and decays to produce anoxic and denitrified waters which spread beneath very large parts of the eastern tropical Pacific.Seasonal cycles are weak over much of the open-ocean eastern tropical Pacific, although several eutrophic coastal areas do exhibit substantial seasonality. The ENSO fluctuation, however, is an exceedingly important source of interannual variability in this region. El Niño in general results in a depressed thermocline and thus reduced rates of macronutrient supply and primary production. The multi-decadal PDO is likely also an important source of variability, with the ‘El Viejo’ phase of the PDO resulting in warmer and lower nutrient and productivity conditions similar to El Niño.On average the eastern tropical Pacific is moderately productive and, relative to Pacific and global means, its productivity and area are roughly equivalent. For example, it occupies about 18% of the Pacific Ocean by area and accounts for 22–23% of its productivity. Similarly, it occupies about 9% of the global ocean and accounts for 10% of its productivity. While representative, these average values obscure very substantial spatial and temporal variability that characterizes the dynamics of this tropical ocean.     

Vertical structure variability in a seasonal simulation of a medium-resolution regional model of the Eastern South Pacific

A seasonal simulation from a medium-resolution ocean general circulation mode (OGCM) is used to investigate the vertical structure variability of the Southeast Pacific (SEP). The focus is on the extra-tropical Rossby wave (ETRW) variability and associated forcing mechanism. Some aspects of the model mean state are validated from available observations, which justifies a vertical mode decomposition of the model variability. The analysis of the baroclinic mode contributions to sea level indicates that the gravest mode is dominant over most of the domain at all frequencies. Annual variability is on average twice as large as the semi-annual variability which is confined near the coast for all the modes. The first baroclinic mode contribution to the annual cycle exhibits a clear westward propagation north of the critical latitude. The higher-order modes only contribute near the coast where they are associated with vertically propagating energy. The residual variability, which is the energy at all timescales other than annual and semi-annual periods peaks offshore between 20°S and 30°S for all baroclinic modes. The third baroclinic mode also exhibits a relative maximum variability off the coast of Peru south of the critical latitude of the annual cycle (13°S), where the Peru–Chile Undercurrent is the most intense. Sensitivity experiments to the atmospheric and boundary forcing suggest that the residual variability results from the non-linear interaction between annual Rossby waves and the mean flow, while the annual ETRWs in the model result from the summed-contribution from both the local wind stress and remote equatorial forcing. Overall the study extends the classical analysis of sea level variability in the SEP based on linear theory, and suggests that the peculiarities of the baroclinic modes need to be taken into account for interpreting the sea level variability and understanding its connection with the equatorial variability.     

Oxygen minimum zones in the eastern tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans

Within the eastern tropical oceans of the Atlantic and Pacific basin vast oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) exist in the depth range between 100 and 900 m. Minimum oxygen values are reached at 300–500 m depth which in the eastern Pacific become suboxic (dissolved oxygen content <4.5 μmol kg⁻¹) with dissolved oxygen concentration of less than 1 μmol kg⁻¹. The OMZ of the eastern Atlantic is not suboxic and has relatively high oxygen minimum values of about 17 μmol kg⁻¹ in the South Atlantic and more than 40 μmol kg⁻¹ in the North Atlantic. About 20 (40%) of the North Pacific volume is occupied by an OMZ when using 45 μmol kg⁻¹ (or 90 μmol kg⁻¹, respectively) as an upper bound for OMZ oxygen concentration for ocean densities lighter than σ_θ < 27.2 kg m⁻³. The relative volumes reduce to less than half for the South Pacific (7% and 13%, respectively). The abundance of OMZs are considerably smaller (1% and 7%) for the South Atlantic and only 0% and 5% for the North Atlantic. Thermal domes characterized by upward displacements of isotherms located in the northeastern Pacific and Atlantic and in the southeastern Atlantic are co-located with the centres of the OMZs. They seem not to be directly involved in the generation of the OMZs.OMZs are a consequence of a combination of weak ocean ventilation, which supplies oxygen, and respiration, which consumes oxygen. Oxygen consumption can be approximated by the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). However, AOU scaled with an appropriate consumption rate (aOUR) gives a time, the oxygen age. Here we derive oxygen ages using climatological AOU data and an empirical estimate of aOUR. Averaging oxygen ages for main thermocline isopycnals of the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean exhibit an exponential increase with density without an obvious signature of the OMZs. Oxygen supply originates from a surface outcrop area and can also be approximated by the turn-over time, the ratio of ocean volume to ventilating flux. The turn-over time corresponds well to the average oxygen ages for the well ventilated waters. However, in the density ranges of the suboxic OMZs the turn-over time substantially increases. This indicates that reduced ventilation in the outcrop is directly related to the existence of suboxic OMZs, but they are not obviously related to enhanced consumption indicated by the oxygen ages. The turn-over time suggests that the lower thermocline of the North Atlantic would be suboxic but at present this is compensated by the import of water from the well ventilated South Atlantic. The turn-over time approach itself is independent of details of ocean transport pathways. Instead the geographical location of the OMZ is to first order determined by: (i) the patterns of upwelling, either through Ekman or equatorial divergence, (ii) the regions of general sluggish horizontal transport at the eastern boundaries, and (iii) to a lesser extent to regions with high productivity as indicated through ocean colour data.     

Dissolved iron in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean (CLIVAR SR3 section): Meridional and seasonal trends

We report measurements of dissolved iron (dFe, <0.4 μm) in seawater collected from the upper 300 m of the water column along the CLIVAR SR3 section south of Tasmania in March 1998 (between 42°S and 54°S) and November–December 2001 (between 47°S and 66°S). Results from both cruises indicate a general north-to-south decrease in mixed-layer dFe concentrations, from values as high as 0.76 nM in the Subtropical Front to uniformly low concentrations (<0.1 nM) between the Polar Front and the Antarctic continental shelf. Samples collected from the seasonal sea-ice zone in November–December 2001 provide no evidence of significant dFe inputs from the melting pack ice, which may explain the absence of pronounced ice-edge algal blooms in this sector of the Southern Ocean, as implied by satellite ocean-color images. Our data also allow us to infer changes in the dFe concentration of surface waters during the growing season. South of the Polar Front, a comparison of near-surface with subsurface (150 m depth) dFe concentrations in November–December 2001 suggests a net seasonal biological uptake of at least 0.14–0.18 nM dFe, of which 0.05–0.12 nM is depleted early in the growing season (before mid December). A comparison of our spring 2001 and fall 1998 data indicates a barely discernible seasonal depletion of dFe (0.03 nM) within the Polar Frontal Zone. Further north, most of our iron profiles do not exhibit near-surface depletions, and mixed-layer dFe concentrations are sometimes higher in samples from fall 1998 compared to spring 2001; here, the near-surface dFe distributions appear to be dominated by time-varying inputs of aerosol iron or advection of iron-rich subtropical waters from the north.     

The different relationship of Pacific interior subtropical cells and two types of ENSO

The Pacific interior subtropical?tropical cells (STCs) and their relation to the two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using GODAS reanalysis ocean data for the period of 1980–2017. The results show that the interior STC transport into the equatorial region across 9°S and 9°N has a close relationship with the eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, while it is much weaker with the central Pacific (CP) ENSO. It is suggested that the effect of interior STCs on the tropical Pacific climate is reflected in its relation with the western Pacific thermocline depth or SSHA. During the EP El Niño, the anomalous interior STCs at 9°S and 9°N converge to the equatorial region from the lag months of ? 25 to ? 8, leading to an accumulation of heat content in the equatorial Pacific; from the lag months of ? 8 to 10, they diverge poleward, inducing a discharge of equatorial heat content. The peak poleward interior STC anomaly first appears at 9°N at a zero-lag time, while that at 9°S is observed 4–5 months later. But there is also no appearance of a time lag between the interior STCs at 9°N and 9°S in recharging the period during the EP La Niña mature phase. However, during CP El Niño, only the conspicuous anomalous interior STC divergence appears during the mature and decay phases for the lag months of ? 2 to 10, with being symmetric at 9°N and 9°S.     

A deep cyclonic gyre in the Australian–Antarctic Basin

The traditional image of ocean circulation between Australia and Antarctica is of a dominant belt of eastward flow, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with comparatively weak adjacent westward flows that provide anticyclonic circulation north and cyclonic circulation south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This image mostly follows from geostrophic estimates from hydrography using a bottom level of no motion for the eastward flow regime which typically yield transports near 170 Sv. Net eastward transport of about 145 Sv for this region results from subtracting those westward flows. This estimate is compatible with the canonical 134 Sv through Drake Passage with augmentation from Indonesian Throughflow (around 10 Sv).A new image is developed from World Ocean Circulation Hydrographic Program sections I8S and I9S. These provide two quasi-meridional crossings of the South Australian Basin and the Australian–Antarctic Basin, with full hydrography and two independent direct-velocity measurements (shipboard and lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers). These velocity measurements indicate that the belt of eastward flow is much stronger, 271 ± 49 Sv, than previously estimated because of the presence of eastward barotropic flow. Substantial recirculations exist adjacent to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current: to the north a 38 ± 30 Sv anticyclonic gyre and to the south a 76 ± 26 Sv cyclonic gyre. The net flow between Australia and Antarctica is estimated as 157 ± 58 Sv, which falls within the expected net transport of 145 Sv.The 38 Sv anticyclonic gyre in the South Australian Basin involves the westward Flinders Current along southern Australia and a substantial 33 Sv Subantarctic Zone recirculation to its south. The cyclonic gyre in the Australian–Antarctic Basin has a substantial 76 Sv westward flow over the continental slope of Antarctica, and 48 ± 6 Sv northward-flowing western boundary current along the Kerguelen Plateau near 57°S. The cyclonic gyre only partially closes within the Australian–Antarctic Basin. It is estimated that 45 Sv bridges westward to the Weddell Gyre through the southern Princess Elizabeth Trough and returns through the northern Princess Elizabeth Trough and the Fawn Trough – where a substantial eastward 38 Sv current is hypothesized. There is evidence that the cyclonic gyre also projects eastward past the Balleny Islands to the Ross Gyre in the South Pacific.The western boundary current along Kerguelen Plateau collides with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that enters the Australian–Antarctic Basin through the Kerguelen–St. Paul Island Passage, forming an energetic Crozet–Kerguelen Confluence. Strongest filaments in the meandering Crozet-Kerguelen Confluence reach 100 Sv. Dense water in the western boundary current intrudes beneath the densest water of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current; they intensely mix diapycnally to produce a high potential vorticity signal that extends eastward along the southern flank of the Southeast Indian Ridge. Dense water penetrates through the Ridge into the South Australian Basin. Two escape pathways are indicated, the Australian–Antarctic Discordance Zone near 125°E and the Geelvinck Fracture Zone near 85°E. Ultimately, the bottom water delivered to the South Australian Basin passes north to the Perth Basin west of Australia and east to the Tasman Basin.     

Long-term trends and interannual variability of temperature in Drake Passage

Temperature data collected over the last 36 years (1969–2004) in Drake Passage are used to examine interannual temperature variation and long-term trends in the upper ocean. To reduce the effect of variation from different sampling locations and temporal variability introduced by meridional shifts in the Polar Front (PF), the data were divided into two sub-regions north (3800 temperature profiles) and south (3400) of the PF. Temperature anomalies were formed by removing a temporal mean field for each profile in each sub-region at 100 m depth intervals from the surface to 700 m. North of the PF, statistically significant warming trends of 0.02 °C yr⁻¹ were observed that were largely depth-independent between 100 and 700 m. A statistically significant cooling trend of −0.07 °C yr⁻¹ was observed at the surface south of the PF, which was smaller (−0.04 °C yr⁻¹) but still statistically significant when possible seasonal sampling biases were accounted for. The observed cooling at the surface and warming at depth is largely consistent with a poleward shift of the PF due to enhancement of westerly winds in the Southern Ocean, as recently suggested by models and observations. The observed annual temperature anomalies in the upper 400 m north of the PF and in the upper 100 m south of the PF are highly correlated to variability in sea ice, and also to climate indices of the Antarctic Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Variability in sea ice and temperature anomalies lag El Niño variability in the Pacific, with a phasing consistent with the observed cyclical patterns of sea ice and sea surface temperature associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave or Antarctic Dipole Mode in the Southern Ocean. In contrast, the sea ice variability and temperature anomalies at all depths north of the PF and at 0–100 m depth south of the PF were primarily coincident with, or led the Antarctic Oscillation Index. No significant correlations were found with the large-scale climate variability indices in southern Drake Passage below 100 m depth, which is occupied by upper Circumpolar Deep Water (uCDW). This water mass is not formed locally, is largely isolated from the surface, and exhibits vertical and lateral homogeneity. Hence changes may be difficult to detect in the available measurements, and climate variation in the source water regions of uCDW may take a long time to reach Drake Passage.     

Eddies and Tropical Instability Waves in the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

Mesoscale eddies and tropical instability waves in the eastern tropical Pacific, first revealed by satellite infrared imagery, play an important role in the dynamics and biology of the region, and in the transfer of mass, energy, heat, and biological constituents from the shelf to the deep ocean and across the equatorial currents.From boreal late autumn to early spring, four to 18 cyclonic or anticyclonic eddies are formed off the coastal region between southern Mexico and Panama. The anticyclonic gyres, which tend to be larger and last longer than the cyclonic ones, are the best studied: they typically are 180–500 km in diameter, depress the pycnocline from 60 to 145 m at the eddy center, have swirl speeds in excess of 1 m s⁻¹, migrate west at velocities ranging from 11 to 19 cm s⁻¹ (with a slight southward component), and maintain a height signature of up to 30 cm. The primary generating agents for these eddies are the strong, intermittent wind jets that blow across the isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico, the lake district in Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and the Panama canal. Other proposed eddy-generating mechanisms are the conservation of vorticity as the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) turns north on reaching America, and the instability of coastally trapped waves/currents.Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are perturbations in the SST fronts on either side of the equatorial cold tongue. They produce SST variations on the order of 1–2 °C, have periods of 20–40 days, wavelengths of 1000–2000 km, phase speeds of around 0.5 m s⁻¹ and propagate westward both north and south of the Equator. The Tropical Instability Vortices (TIVs) are a train of westward-propagating anticyclonic eddies associated with the TIWs. They exhibit eddy currents exceeding 1.3 m s⁻¹, a westward phase propagation speed between 30 and 40 km d⁻¹, a signature above the pycnocline, and eastward energy propagation. Like the TIWs, they result from the latitudinal barotropically unstable shear between the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and the NECC with a potential secondary source of energy from baroclinic instability of the vertical shear with the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC).This review of mesoscale processes is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

基于CCSM3气候模式的同化模拟试验

基于美国NCAR及其他科学家合作发展的共同气候系统模式CCSM3,利用nudging方法开展了把15 m到465 m的次表层海温同化到该模式的研究。1980—2000年的同化试验结果表明,经过同化得到的模拟结果与实际较为一致,较好的再现了中低纬太平洋海洋和大气的平均特征和随时间演变的规律,但仍存在如海表温度偏高、降水偏强等问题。尤其是在大洋的东边界,陆地地形比较陡峭的地区,通常出现较大的偏差。     

Assessment of excess nitrate development in the subtropical North Atlantic

Geochemical estimates of N₂ fixation in the North Atlantic often serve as a foundation for estimating global marine diazotrophy. Yet despite being well-studied, estimations of nitrogen fixation rates in this basin vary widely. Here we investigate the variability in published estimates of excess nitrogen accumulation rates in the main thermocline of the subtropical North Atlantic, testing the assumptions and choices made in the analyses. Employing one of these previously described methods, modified here with improved estimates of excess N spatial gradients and ventilation rates of the main thermocline, we determine a total excess N accumulation rate of 7.8 ± 1.7 × 10¹¹ mol N yr^− 1. Contributions to excess N development include atmospheric deposition of high N:P nutrients (adding excess N at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.9 × 10¹¹ mol N yr^− 1 for  38% of the total), high N:P dissolved organic matter advected into and mineralized in the main thermocline (adding excess N at 2.2 ± 1.1 × 10¹¹ mol N yr^− 1 for  28% of the total), and, calculated by mass balance of the excess N field, N₂ fixation (adding excess N at 2.6 ± 2.2 × 10¹¹ mol N yr^− 1 for  33% of the total). Assuming an N:P of 40 and this rate of excess N accumulation due to the process, N₂ fixation in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre is estimated at  4 × 10¹¹ mol N yr^− 1. This relatively low rate of N₂ fixation suggests that i) the rate of N₂ fixation in the North Atlantic is greatly overestimated in some previous analyses, ii) the main thermocline is not the primary repository of N fixed by diazotrophs, and/or iii) the N:P ratio of exported diazotrophic organic matter is much lower than generally assumed. It is this last possibility, and our uncertainty in the N:P ratios of exported material supporting excess N development, that greatly lessens our confidence in geochemical measures of N₂ fixation.     

Determination of picomolar iron in seawater by double Mg(OH)2 precipitation isotope dilution high-resolution ICPMS

A low-blank pre-concentration procedure is described for the analysis of picomolar iron (Fe) in seawater by isotope dilution high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass-spectrometry (HR-ICPMS). The procedure uses a two-step Mg(OH)₂ co-precipitation procedure to extract Fe from a 50 ml seawater sample into a 100 μl 4% nitric acid (HNO₃) solution followed by HR-ICPMS measurement. The high pre-concentration ratio ( 500:1) achieved by the procedure minimizes the Fe blank due to ICPMS instrumental Fe background and results in a detection limit of  2 pM and a precision of  4% at the 50 pM Fe level. The measurement of a low-Fe seawater sample spiked with gravimetric Fe standard shows that the method can clearly distinguish 0.01 nM Fe from 0.02 nM Fe in seawater with high accuracy. The method is demonstrated by the analysis of dissolved Fe in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.     

Ocean variability North of New Guinea derived from TRITON buoy data

We investigated variability in the ocean surface-subsurface layer north of New Guinea using Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) buoys at 2°N, 138°E and 0°N, 138°E during the period from October 1999 to July 2004. Both North and South Pacific waters were observed below the subsurface at these stations. The variability in the subsurface waters was particularly high at 2°N, 138°E. Clear interannual variability occurred near the surface; the water type differed before and after onset of the 2002–03 El Niño. Before summer 2001, water that appeared to be advected from the central equatorial Pacific occupied the near surface layer. After autumn 2001, waters advected by the New Guinea Coastal Current were observed near the surface. Intraseasonal and seasonal variations were also observed below the subsurface. With regard to seasonal variability, the salinity of the subsurface saline water, the South Pacific Tropical Water, was generally high during the boreal summer-autumn, when the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent was strong. Intraseasonal fluctuations on a scale of 20 to 60 days were also seen and may have been associated with intrinsic oceanic variability, such as ocean eddies, near the stations. Ocean variability in the thermocline layer between 100 and 200 m greatly affects the surface dynamic height variability; water variability before 2001 and variability in the pycnocline depth after 2002 are important factors affecting the thermocline.     

Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.     

The Rossby wave as a key mechanism of Indian Ocean climate variability

We analyze the time-longitude structure of composite cases from model-assimilated ocean data in the period 1958–1998, following on from earlier work by Huang and Kinter (J. Geophys. Res. 107(C11) (2002) 3199) that studied east–west thermocline variability in the Indian Ocean. Our analysis focuses on the Rossby wave signal along the thermocline ridge in the tropical SW Indian Ocean (10°S, 60–80°E), where wind stress curl is important. Anomalous winds in the equatorial east Indian Ocean force successive Rossby waves westward at speeds of 0.1 m s⁻¹±30%. With a wavelength of 7000 km, the period of oscillation is in the range 1.9–5.2 years. The Indian Ocean Rossby wave is partially resonant with the global influence of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, except during quasi-biennial rhythm. The presence of the Rossby wave offers potential predictability for east–west atmospheric circulation systems and climate that affect resources in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.     

Interactions between the Indonesian Throughflow and circulations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans

Circulations associated with the Indonesian Throughflow (IT), particularly concerning subsurface currents in the Pacific Ocean, are studied using three types of models: a linear, continuously stratified (LCS) model and a nonlinear, -layer model (LOM), both confined to the Indo-Pacific basin; and a global, ocean general circulation model (COCO). Solutions are wind forced, and obtained with both open and closed Indonesian passages. Layers 1-4 of LOM correspond to near-surface, thermocline, subthermocline (thermostad), and upper-intermediate (AAIW) water, respectively, and analogous layers are defined for COCO.The three models share a common dynamics. When the Indonesian passages are abruptly opened, barotropic and baroclinic waves radiate into the interiors of both oceans. The steady-state, barotropic flow field from the difference (open − closed) solution is an anticlockwise circulation around the perimeter of the southern Indian Ocean, with its meridional branches confined to the western boundaries of both oceans. In contrast, steady-state, baroclinic flows extend into the interiors of both basins, a consequence of damping of baroclinic waves by diapycnal processes (internal diffusion, upwelling and subduction, and convective overturning). Deep IT-associated currents are the subsurface parts of these baroclinic flows. In the Pacific, they tend to be directed eastward and poleward, extend throughout the basin, and are closed by upwelling in the eastern ocean and Subpolar Gyre. Smaller-scale aspects of their structure vary significantly among the models, depending on the nature of their diapycnal mixing.At the exit to the Indonesian Seas, the IT is highly surface trapped in all the models, with a prominent, deep core in the LCS model and in LOM. The separation into two cores is due to near-equatorial, eastward-flowing, subsurface currents in the Pacific Ocean, which drain layer 2 and layer 3 waters from the western ocean to supply water for the upwelling regions in the eastern ocean; indeed, depending on the strength and parameterization of vertical diffusion in the Pacific interior, the draining can be strong enough that layer 3 water flows from the Indian to Pacific Ocean. The IT in COCO lacks a significant deep core, likely because the model’s coarse bottom topography has no throughflow passage below 1000 m. Consistent with observations, water in the near-surface (deep) core comes mostly from the northern (southern) hemisphere, a consequence of the wind-driven circulation in the tropical North Pacific being mostly confined to the upper ocean; as a result, it causes the near-surface current along the New Guinea coast to retroflect eastward, but has little impact on the deeper New Guinea undercurrent.In the South Pacific, the IT-associated flow into the basin is spread roughly uniformly throughout all four layers, a consequence of downwelling processes in the Indian Ocean. The inflow first circulates around the Subtropical Gyre, and then bends northward at the Australian coast to flow to the equator within the western boundary currents. To allow for this additional, northward transport, the bifurcation latitude of the South Equatorial Current shifts southward when the Indonesian passages are open. The shift is greater at depth (layers 3 and 4), changing from about 14°S when the passages are closed to 19°S when they are open and, hence, accounting for the northward-flowing Great Barrier Reef Undercurrent in that latitude range.After flowing along the New Guinea coast, most waters in layers 1-3 bend offshore to join the North Equatorial Countercurrent, Equatorial Undercurrent, and southern Tsuchiya Jet, respectively, thereby ensuring that northern hemisphere waters contribute significantly to the IT. In contrast, much of the layer 4 water directly exits the basin via the IT, but some also flows into the subpolar North Pacific. Except for the direct layer 4 outflow, all other IT-associated waters circulate about the North Pacific before they finally enter the Indonesian Seas via the Mindanao Current.     

ENSO循环相关的海洋异常信号传播特征及其机制

通过分析最新的海洋模式同化资料(EstimatingtheCirculationandClimateoftheOcean,EC CO),研究了ENSO循环相关的海洋异常信号在太平洋中的传播过程。研究发现,导致ENSO位相变化的温跃层异常信号主要从北太平洋西传而来,该区与赤道东太平洋相反的温跃层异常信号到达西太暖池区,再从西太暖池沿赤道传到东太平洋,可使ENSO向反位相发展。该异常信号沿赤道东传过程中热带西南太平洋也会出现类似的温跃层异常变化,但是随着异常信号东移和从南太平洋东边界10°S左右传来的反异常信号入侵,热带西南太平洋的异常信号逐渐减弱并消失。稳定性分析表明,北太平洋较大面积区域存在斜压不稳定性或正压不稳定性,有利于ENSO相关的温跃层异常信号以Rossby波形式有效地西传;而在南太平洋,不稳定区的面积较小,且主要局限于海盆东侧,因而传播较弱,这样就造成了ENSO信号在太平洋南、北半球的非对称传播。一般来说,ENSO信号主要在以赤道波导区、东边界、北太平洋纬向区域和西边界组成的回路中循环,在南半球的传播不明显。     

The effect of a northward shift in the southern hemisphere westerlies on the global ocean

We examine the effect of a northward shift in the position of the southern hemisphere subpolar westerly winds (SWWs) on the vertical and horizontal distribution of temperature and salinity in the world ocean. A northward shift of the SWWs causes a latitudinal contraction of the subpolar gyres in the southern hemisphere (SH). In the Indian and Pacific, this leads to subsurface warming in the subtropical thermocline. As the southern margins of the gyres move into latitudes characterised by warmer surface air temperature (SAT), the layers at mid-depth below 400 m depth become ventilated by warmer water. We characterize the approximation of the ventilated thermocline in our coarse resolution model using a set of passive tracer experiments, and illustrate how the northward shift in the SWWs causes an equatorward shift in the latitude of origin of water ventilating layers deeper than 400 m in the Indian and Pacific, leaving the total surface ventilation of the upper 1200 m unchanged. In contrast, the latitudinal constraint on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current posed by the Drake Passage causes a cooling and freshening throughout the Atlantic thermocline; here, subsurface thermocline water originates from higher latitudes under the wind shift. On longer timescales Atlantic cooling and freshening is reinforced by a reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and surface salinification of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In effect, the latitude of zero wind stress curl in the SWWs regulates the relative importance of the “cold water route” via the Drake Passage and the “warm water route” associated with thermocline water exchange via the Indian Ocean. Thus, a more northward location of the SWWs corresponds with a reduced salinity contrast between the Indian/ Pacific Oceans and the Atlantic. This results in reduced NADW formation. Also, a more northward location of the SWWs facilitates the injection of cool fresh Antarctic Intermediate Water into the South Atlantic subtropical gyre. Beyond these changes, on a millennial timescale, the deep ocean warms throughout the water column in response to the wind shift. Global salinity stratification also becomes less stable, as more saline water remains at the surface and accumulates in the Indian and Pacific thermocline. The freshening of the deep ocean reflects a reduced stirring of the global ocean due to reduced net circulation arising from a misalignment between the westerlies and the topographically constrained ACC. Our results lend support to the idea that a more equatorward location of the SWW maximum during glacial climates contributed to cooler and fresher conditions in the Atlantic, inhibiting NADW.