Effect of Sea Level Variation on Calculation of Design Water Level

The long-term variation and seasonal variation of sea level have a notable effect on the calculation of engineering water level. Such an effect is first analyzed in this paper. The maximal amplitude of inter-annual anomaly of monthly mean sea level along the China coast is larger than 60 cm. Both the storm surge disaster and cold wave disaster are seasonal disasters in various regions, so the water level corresponding to the 1% of the cumulative frequency in the cumulative frequency curve of hourly water level data for different seasons in various sea areas is different from design water level, for example, the difference between them reaches maximum in June, July and August for northern sea area, and maximum in September, October and November for Southern China Sea. The hourly water level data of 19 gauge stations along the China coast are analyzed. Firstly, the annual mean sea level for every station is obtained; secondly, linear chan ging rates of annual mean sea level are obtained with the stochasti     

Sea level variations in the regional seas around Taiwan

The patterns and trends of sea level rise in the regional seas around Taiwan have been investigated through the analyses of long-term tide-gauge and satellite altimetry data. Series of tide-gauge data extending over 50 years reveal decadal and interannual variations and spatially-inhomogeneous patterns of generally rising sea level. The East Asia tide-gauge stations around Taiwan show an average trend of +2.4 mm/yr from 1961–2003, which is larger than the reported global rate of +1.8 mm/yr for the same period. These stations also show significantly larger sea level rise rates (+5.7 mm/yr) than global values (+3.1 mm/yr) during the period from 1993–2003. Consistent with the coastal tide-gauge records, satellite altimetry data show similar increasing rates (+5.3 mm/yr) around Taiwan during the same period. Comparisons with temperature anomalies in the upper ocean suggest that thermal expansion and heat advection in the upper layer contribute significantly to the long-term sea level variations in this area with correlations >0.9 for observations after 1992. Thermosteric sea level variations may also explain the interannual and decadal variations of the observed sea level rises around Taiwan. Our analysis also indicates that the altimetry data are only part of a long-term, larger-scale signal. Finally, we have found that a non-linear smoother, LOESS, is more suitable for extracting long-term trends in sea level than the traditional linear regression approach.     

Seasonal responses of monthly mean sea levels in the Bohai Sea to hydrometeorological forcing and their double screening regression models

-In this paper, the maximum entropy spectral, the cross-spectral and the frequency response analyses are madeon the basis of the data of monthly mean sea levels at coastal stations in the Bohai Sea during 1965-1986. The results show that the annual fluctuations of the monthly mean sea levels in the Bohai Sea are the results of the coupling response of seasonal variations of the marine hydrometeorological factors. Furthermore, the regression prediction equation is obtained by using the double screening stepwise regression analysis method . Through the prediction test , it is proved that the obtained results are desirable.     

Inferring the global mean sea level from a global tide gauge network

An attempt is made to infer the global mean sea level(GMSL) from a global tide gauge network and frame the problem in terms of the limitations of the network. The network,owing to its limited number of gauges and poor geographical distribution complicated further by unknown vertical land movements,is ill suited for measuring the GMSL. Yet it remains the only available source for deciphering the sea level rise over the last 100 a. The poor sampling characteristics of the tide gauge network have necessitated the usage of statistical inference. A linear optimal estimator based on the Gauss-Markov theorem seems well suited for the job. This still leaves a great deal of freedom in choosing the estimator. GMSL is poorly correlated with tide gauge measurements because the small uniform rise and fall of sea level are masked by the far larger regional signals. On the other hand,a regional mean sea level(RMSL) is much better correlated with the corresponding regional tide gauge measurements. Since the GMSL is simply the sum of RMSLs,the problem is transformed to one of estimating the RMSLs from regional tide gauge measurements. Specifically for the annual heating and cooling cycle,we separate the global ocean into 10-latitude bands and compute for each 10-latitude band the estimator that predicts its RMSL from tide gauges within. In the future,the statistical correlations are to be computed using satellite altimetry. However,as a first attempt,we have used numerical model outputs instead to isolate the problem so as not to get distracted by altimetry or tide gauge errors. That is,model outputs for sea level at tide gauge locations of the GLOSS network are taken as tide gauge measurements,and the RMSLs are computed from the model outputs. The results show an estimation error of approximately 2 mm versus an error of 2.7 cm if we simply average the tide gauge measurements to estimate the GMSL,caused by the much larger regional seasonal cycle and mesoscale variation plaguing the individual tide gauges. The numerical model,Los Alamos POP model Run 11 lasting 3 1/4 a,is one of the best eddy-resolving models and does a good job simulating the annual heating and cooling cycle,but it has no global or regional trend. Thus it has basically succeeded in estimating the seasonal cycle of the GMSL. This is still going to be the case even if we use the altimetry data because the RMSLs are dominated by the seasonal cycle in relatively short periods. For estimating the GMSL trend,longer records and low-pass filtering to isolate the statistical relations that are of interest. Here we have managed to avoid the much larger regional seasonal cycle plaguing individual tide gauges to get a fairly accurate estimate of the much smaller seasonal cycle in the GMSL so as to enhance the prospect of an accurate estimate of GMSL trend in short periods. One should reasonably expect to be able to do the same for longer periods during which tide gauges are plagued by much larger regional interannual(e. g.,ENSO events) and decadal sea level variations. In the future,with the availability of the satellite altimeter data,we could use the same approach adopted here to estimate the seasonal variations of GMSL and RMSL accurately and remove these seasonal variations accordingly so as to get a more accurate statistical inference between the tide gauge data and the RMSLs(therefore the GMSL) at periods longer than 1 a,i. e.,the long-term trend.     

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the South China Sea Over 1950–2009

Spatial patterns of interannual sea level variations in the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated by analyzing an EOF-based 2-dimensional past sea level reconstruction from 1950 to 2009 and satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2009. Long-term tide gauge records from 14 selected stations in this region are also used to assess the quality of reconstructed sea levels and determine the rate of sea level along the coastal area. We found that the rising rate of sea levels derived from merged satellite altimetry data during 1993–2009 and past sea level reconstruction over 1950–2009 is about 3.9 ± 0.6 mm/yr and 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. For the longer period, this rate is not significantly different from the global mean rate (of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr). The interannual mean sea level of the SCS region appears highly correlated with Niño 4 indices (a proxy of El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO), suggesting that the interannual sea level variations over the SCS region is driven by ENSO events. Interpolation of the reconstructed sea level data for 1950–2009 at sites where tide gauge records are of poor quality (either short or gapped) show that sea level along the Chinese coastal area is rising faster than the global mean rate of 1.8 mm/yr. At some sites, the rate is up to 2.5 mm/yr.     

Absolute sea level variability of Arctic Ocean in 1993–2018 from satellite altimetry and tide gauge observations

Arctic absolute sea level variations were analyzed based on multi-mission satellite altimetry data and tide gauge observations for the period of 1993–2018. The range of linear absolute sea level trends were found ?2.00 mm/a to 6.88 mm/a excluding the central Arctic, positive trend rates were predominantly located in shallow water and coastal areas, and negative rates were located in high-latitude areas and Baffin Bay. Satellite-derived results show that the average secular absolute sea level trend was (2.53±0.42) mm/a in the Arctic region. Large differences were presented between satellite-derived and tide gauge results, which are mainly due to low satellite data coverage, uncertainties in tidal height processing and vertical land movement (VLM). The VLM rates at 11 global navigation satellite system stations around the Arctic Ocean were analyzed, among which 6 stations were tide gauge co-located, the results indicate that the absolute sea level trends after VLM corrected were of the same magnitude as satellite altimetry results. Accurately calculating VLM is the primary uncertainty in interpreting tide gauge measurements such that differences between tide gauge and satellite altimetry data are attributable generally to VLM.     

Influence of the Kuroshio Fluctuations on Sea Level Variations along the South Coast of Japan

The correlation between the Kuroshio and coastal sea level south of Japan has been examined using the altimetry and tide gauge data during the period 1992–2000. The sea level varies uniformly in a region bounded by the coast and the mean Kuroshio axis, which stretches for several hundred kilometers along the coast. These variations are related with the Kuroshio velocity, as coastal sea level decreases (or increases) when the Kuroshio is faster (or slower). To the east of the Kii Peninsula, where sea level variations are different from these to the west, movement of the Kuroshio axis additionally affects coastal sea level variations.     

基于观测数据的2003?2014年北冰洋海平面时空特征

本文对比了3个不同机构提供的北冰洋月均高度计数据,发现英国极地观测与建模中心和丹麦科技大学空间中心两套数据比较一致且空间覆盖率高,适用于北冰洋海平面变化研究,而前者在数据分辨率、平滑性和与验潮站的符合程度方面均更优。对高度计和验潮站数据的分析表明,北冰洋海平面的气候态特征表现为加拿大海盆的高值和欧亚海盆的低值之间形成鲜明对比;海平面的变化以季节变化和北极涛动引起的低频变化为主,加拿大海盆的季节和年际振幅均较大,俄罗斯沿岸海平面季节变化显著。2003?2014年,北冰洋平均海平面呈上升趋势,其中加拿大海盆海平面上升最快,而俄罗斯沿岸海平面有微弱下降趋势。加拿大海盆和俄罗斯沿岸由于海冰变化显著,不同高度计产品以及高度计与验潮站数据之间差别较大,使用时需慎重。     

Estimating the sea surface dynamic topography from Geosat altimetry data

Optimal interpolation method is applied to Geosat altimetry data both to remove orbit error and to separate temporal mean sea surface dynamic topography (SSDT) from temporal fluctuations around the mean. Loss of long-wavelength oceanic signals at orbit error reduction procedure is smaller in this method than that in conventional collinear methods, but the areal average height over the study domain is still removed as the orbit error. The fluctuation SSDT is quantitatively evaluated by sea level data from tide gauge stations at Japanese islands. The correlation coefficient of the two sea-level variations is 0.83 when the loss of the areal average is compensated by the seasonal variation of the areal average height determined from the climatological monthly-mean SSDT. In addition, the improvement of the geoid model by combined use of Seasat altimetry data and hydrographic data is validated through the estimated temporal mean SSDT. In a local area where hydrographic data contemporary with the Seasat mission exist, the geoid model has been significantly improved so that the absolute SSDT can be determined from combination of the altimetry data and geoid model; the absolute SSDT describes the onset event of a quasi-stationary large meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan very well. Outside this local area, however, errors of several tens of centimeters still remain in the improved geoid model.     

东海沿海季节性海平面异常成因

Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature(SST), air pressure and wind data during 1980–2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea(ECS) are investigated. The research results show:(1) sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30–45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.(2) Monthly mean sea level(MSL)anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.(3) Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%–80% of MSL anomalies.(4) The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.(5) Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4–7 a related to El Ni?o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2–3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down.     

渤海湾M2分潮的季节变化:增强调和分析的应用

M₂分潮的季节变化对沿海的海洋环境有着重要影响。增强调和分析(EHA)既可以提取主要分潮时变的振幅和迟角,同时可以得到其他分潮不随时间变化的振幅和迟角。本文利用EHA分析渤海湾两个站点的水位数据,研究了渤海湾M₂分潮的季节变化。为了评估EHA方法的准确性,在理想实验中设计了人造“水位数据”。利用EHA分析得到的M₂分潮时变振幅和迟角以及S₂、K₁、O₁分潮不随时间变化的振幅和迟角均比其他方法得到的结果更接近给定值,表明了EHA的有效性和可用性。当使用EHA分析渤海湾实际海平面观测数据时,得到的M₂分潮振幅具有明显的季节变化特征:夏季较大,冬季较小。敏感性实验表明,分析所得渤海湾M₂分潮振幅的季节变化趋势不受实验设置的影响,是鲁棒的,能够反映该海域真实的M₂分潮季节变化。此外,渤海湾M₂分潮振幅的季节变化可能是东亚季风通过影响平均海平面、层化和涡动黏性系数的季节变化而引起的。     

Numerical modeling of the influence of exchange through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits on the hydrophysical fields of the Marmara Sea

A long-term (18 years) prognostic experiment on the formation of the Marmara Sea hydrodynamic structure driven by the exchange through straits with zero atmospheric forcing is carried out using a numerical nonlinear circulation model. The seasonal variability is taken into account by specifying the water temperature in the Bosporus. It is shown that the mutual adaptation of hydrophysical fields and their adjustment to the physical and geographical conditions of the sea are caused by rapid (tens of days) and slow (several tens of years) adjustment mechanisms. An S-shaped jet current directed from the Bosporus Strait to the Dardanelles is formed in the upper 20-m layer. A cyclonic eddy is periodically formed near the northern boundary of the Marmara Sea. An anticyclonic pattern is well defined in the central part of the sea. In deeper layers there is an abyssal jet current formed by the inflow of the high-density Aegean water to the Marmara Sea. These features of the Marmara Sea circulation are confirmed by observational data.     

风对中国东部海域海平面季节变化的影响

应用ROMS数值模式配置基本实验模拟了2004年到2006年中国东部海域海平面的季节变化。模拟结果与TOPEX／Poseidon（T／P）卫星高度计观测结果基本一致,海平面年较差从中国沿岸到黑潮路径逐渐变小。将数值模式的风应力项去掉,配置对比实验。与基本实验结果对比发现,对比实验海平面仍然具有季节变化,但是闽浙沿岸和苏北沿岸海平面春夏季异常偏低、秋冬季异常偏高现象消失,中国沿岸向太平洋的海平面变化减弱。春季和秋季,渤、黄海和黑潮附近海平面异于东海的现象减弱。对比实验海平面的年较差的数值明显减小,从近岸向黑潮海平面年较差渐变的过程消失。整个渤黄海的海平面年较差近似。对比实验海平面年较差占基本实验海平面年较差比率从近岸向黑潮路径逐渐增大。     

Reanalysis of seasonal and interannual variability of Black Sea fields for 1993–2012

A retrospective analysis has been done for the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea for 1993–2012 with the assimilation of undisturbed monthly average profiles of temperature and salinity that were obtained by using an original procedure of joint processing of satellite altimetry and rare hydrological observations. The accuracy of the reconstructed fields of temperature and salinity of the Black Sea is evaluated by comparison with the data of sounding from the hydrological stations and the Argo floats. A comparative analysis is performed for the integral characteristics of the fields of temperature, salinity, and kinetic energy with the same characteristics of the reanalysis for 1992–2012 that assimilated the average annual profiles of temperature and salinity, surface temperature and altimetry level of the sea after being adjusted with respect to climate seasonal variability. The proposed procedure of the reanalysis execution allows a more precise reconstruction of the interannual variability of temperature and salinity stratification in the main pycnocline. The correlation between the annual and seasonal variability of the eddy of the wind friction tangential stress and the average kinetic energy at the levels is revealed.     

Long-Term and Short-Term Variations of Sea Level in Eastern Canada: A Review

This is a review of sea level data performed at three selected stations (Québec-Lauzon, Harrington Harbour,and Halifax) in eastern Canada in order to investigate the seasonal trends and other long-term and short-term changes which occurred since the beginning of the 20th century. Stations situated in riverine or estuarine regions (e.g., Québec-Lauzon) are significantly affected by freshwater flow in their annual cycle of sea level changes and exhibit a definite maximum in spring and minimum in autumn-winter. Other stations situated in the eastern half of the Gulf of St. Lawrence (e.g., Harrington Harbour) or near the open Atlantic coast (Halifax) mainly follow the general cycle of subarctic regions, with lows in spring-summer and highs in autumn-winter. Such seasonal variations appear to be related to the atmospheric pressure and baroclinic current variations. Secular trends in mean sea level in eastern Canadian waterbodies show a mean rise of about 2.56 mm/yr -1 due to tectonic motions, that is, land subsidence. At several stations in eastern Canada, evidence is found for the influence of the nodal tide (18.6 years), the sunspot cycle (10.8 years), the lunar perigee (8.47 years), the pole tide (14.5 months), the annual cycle (12 months), and semiannual tidal cycle (6 months) in sea level records. Beside long-term oscillations with periods of more than one year, evidence is found for high energetic semidiurnal and diurnal tides where they contribute largely (from 90-95%) to short term variability of sea level. In the residual signal (variations of sea level--tidal variations), short-term variations between 2 to 30 days can be attributed to meterological forcing (atmospheric pressure and winds), longitudinal seiches (2-10 h), atmospheric tides (12 h and 24 h) and inertial oscillations (16-18 h). A regressive model showed that the water discharge from the St. Lawrence River contributes 29% to the monthly residual sea level at Québec-Lauzon. The atmospheric pressure and winds contribute respectively 8.1% and 8.9% at this station. They contribute 52.1% and 7.7% at Harrington Harbour and 41.8% and 14.3% at Halifax. The regression coefficients of residual sea level on atmospheric pressure are respectively estimated to be -1.507 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ( - 0.345 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ), -0.776 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ( - 0.112 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ) and -0.825 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ( - 0.008 cm. ( hPa ) -1 ) at the three stations. Compared to the coefficient of the inverted barometer, estimated to be -1 cm. ( hPa ) -1 , these effects of the atmospheric pressure on sea level variations seem to be amplified at Que´bec-Lauzon by the wind effects (and water discharge) while they are reduced at Harrington Harbour and Halifax.     

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current revealed by HF ocean radars,coastal tide gauges,and bottom-mounted ADCP

Subinertial and seasonal variations in the Soya Warm Current (SWC) are investigated using data obtained by high frequency (HF) ocean radars, coastal tide gauges, and a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The HF radars clearly captured the seasonal variations in the surface current fields of the SWC. Almost the same seasonal cycle was repeated in the period from August 2003 to March 2007, although interannual variations were also discernible. In addition to the annual and interannual variations, the SWC exhibited subinertial variations with a period of 5–20 days. The surface transport by the SWC was significantly correlated with the sea level difference between the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk for both the seasonal and subinertial variations, indicating that the SWC is driven by the sea level difference between the two seas. The generation mechanism of the subinertial variation is discussed using wind data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. The subinertial variations in the SWC were significantly correlated with the meridional wind stress component over the region. The subinertial variations in the sea level difference and surface current delay from the meridional wind stress variations by one or two days. Sea level difference through the strait caused by wind-generated coastally trapped waves (CTWs) along the east coast of Sakhalin and west coast of Hokkaido is considered to be a possible mechanism causing the subinertial variations in the SWC.     

中国海和泰国湾海域海平面的经向涛动

卫星高度计遥感海面高度距平资料(1992-2012年)的分析结果证实中国海(渤、黄、东海及南海)和泰国湾作为一个半封闭的狭长水域,其海平面存在显著的南北经向涛动。涛动呈现明显的季节性,冬季南高北低,夏季北高南低,以渤海和泰国湾的海平面高差作为涛动的测度,其多年平均波动幅度达63cm,较差超过80cm。时间序列分析显示,在季节尺度上这一涛动几乎完全受东亚季风的支配,表明东亚季风的局地强迫是造成季节涛动的主要原因。进一步的分析发现,除季节波动之外研究海域海平面的经向涛动还存在明显的年际变化。不过,与季节尺度的波动有所不同,经向涛动的年际变化不仅是东亚季风区局地作用的结果,而且与太平洋海盆尺度的大气强迫有关,其作用与季风在同一数量级。涛动的年际变化大致滞后各气候因子两个月。采用多输入线性模型做偏相关分析筛选的结果显示,除东亚季风指数之外,研究海域的海平面涛动指数主要与太平洋的南方涛动指数(SOI)和西太平洋遥相关指数(WP)相关。这表明外部强迫既来自热带,也来自中纬度。南方涛动所导致的赤道海域海平面的东西向年际涛动,以及中纬度西风急流年际波动对西北太平洋海平面的作用,都有可能导致研究海域海平面经向涛动的年际变化,其机制有待进一步探讨。     

Altimetry-observed semi-annual cycle in the South China Sea: Real signal or alias of K1 tidal error?

There have been a number of applications of satellite altimetry to seasonal and interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea. However, these applications usually exclude shallow waters along the coast, with one of the concerns being large aliased tide-correction error. In this study the authors analyzed 14 years of merged satellite altimeter data to obtain the amplitude and phase of the semi-annual cycle and to examine the variation at the K1 alias frequency (close to the semi-annual frequency). The results indicate that the amplitude of the semi-annual cycle ranges from 3-7 cm, substantial compared with that of the annual cycle; while the amplitude at the K1 alias frequency (error of the K1 tidal correction) is essentially 1 cm only. Altimeter–derived semi-annual cycle is in good agreement with that from independent tide-gauge observations, pointing to the competent ability of satellite altimetry in observing semi-annual sea level variations in the South China Sea.     

基于EOF法的长江口高潮位时空变化特征研究——长时间序列的高潮位EOF分析

根据长江口6个主要潮位站1993-2008年潮位资料,通过经验正交函数分析法(EOF法)分析了长时间序列和三峡工程前后月平均高潮位变化规律以及2000年的日高潮位变化规律,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:EOF分析前三个主成分贡献率为98.19%,可以反映潮位变化的主要过程。EOF1的影响因子是径流量,在空间上均为正值,呈上游至下游递减趋势,时间系数呈季节性变化;EOF2的影响因子是月平均海平面变化,在空间上有明显的分布差异,时间系数总体有上升趋势。三峡工程前后影响因子的作用有一定变化,径流量的影响增强,海平面减小。徐六泾以上河段的潮位站受径流丰枯影响,徐六泾以下高潮位受平均海平面控制更大。     

Fluctuation of the sea surface dynamic topography southeast of Japan as estimated from Seasat altimetry data

The sea surface dynamic topography (the sea surface height relative to the geoid; hereafter abbreviated SSDT) can be divided into the temporal mean SSDT and the fluctuation SSDT around the mean. We use the optimal interpolation method to reduce the satellite radial orbit error and estimate the fluctuation SSDT southeast of Japan from Seasat altimetry data during the 17-day near-repeat mission. The fluctuation SSDT is further combined with the mean geopotential anomalies estimated from hydrographic data during the Seasat mission in order to give the approximated total SSDT, called here the composite SSDT (the approximated mean plus fluctuation SSDT's). The fluctuation SSDT is in accord with the low-frequency sea-level fluctuation recorded at tide gauge stations in the Japanese islands. The composite SSDT describes thoroughly variations of the location of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan determined on the basis of the GEK (Geomagnetic Electro-Kinematograph) surface velocities and the horizontal temperature distribution. The composite SSDT also agrees with oceanic variations east of Japan found in the temperature distribution at the depth of 200 m. These results confirm that the SSDT derived from altimetry data can provide fairly precise synoptic views of low-frequency oceanic phenomena.