江苏省人为热排放现状及未来变化趋势分析

依据1990~2013年江苏省能源消费统计资料和1990、1995、2000、2005、2010年的人口空间分布数据,估计江苏省人为热排放量、探讨其时空分布特征并预测其未来变化趋势。研究结果表明,20多年来江苏省的人为热排放量持续增长,从1990年全省平均的0.59 W/m~2增加到2013年的2.85 W/m~2。排放的空间分布也不均匀,总体上江苏南部地区的排放通量高于江苏北部。近些年江苏省的人为热排放已成为区域问题,高值区已连接成片,2010年江苏省大部分地区的人为热排放高于2.5 W/m~2,南部主要城市排放通量大于10 W/m~2、北部城市也多大于5 W/m~2。江苏各城市的城区人为热排放通量稳步增长,2002年后增长加速、增量最高可达到2 W m~(-2) a~(-1)。在2030年和2050年江苏省的平均人为热排放通量将分别达到5.7 W/m~2和9.1 W/m~2,可能对中国东部的气候和大气环境产生重要影响。     

Anthropogenic heat in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q _F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm^?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm^?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm^?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q _FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q _FS) and human metabolism (Q _FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m^?2?month^?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q _F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.     

热带太平洋和印度洋热源对大气影响的季节变化特征

本文利用1970—1979年COADS2°×2°格点月平均资料,计算了30°S—30°N热带太平洋和印度洋洋面上的有效长波辐射、感热和潜热通量以及它们的季节变化和年变化。结果指出:在冬季半球热带海洋外侧有大量的长波辐射、感热和潜热向大气输送,输送通量的季节变化大;热带太平洋地区西北部热通量的季节变化最大,赤道洋面地区热通量的年变化最小,潜热是洋面上热量输送的最大项,季节变化也最大;感热的输送量虽不及有效长波辐射,但其季节变化与有效长波辐射的变化相当;赤道地区是有效长波辐射和潜热通量的低值区,暖池地区是有效长波辐射的低值中心,靠近秘鲁海域的东南赤道太平洋是感热通量的负值区;热带太平洋西北部和阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾地区的热通量及年、季变化与亚洲季风有密切的关系,同时对我国和南亚地区的气候有重要的影响。      

Estimating spatial and temporal patterns of urban anthropogenic heat fluxes for UK cities: the case of Manchester

A model is proposed for determining the temporal and spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat fluxes in UK urban areas. It considers buildings, traffic, and metabolic heat flux sources and has been evaluated to a good accuracy against alternative data for the Greater Manchester area in the UK. Results are presented at spatial resolution of 200 ×?200 m although the model itself is scalable depending on data availability. In this paper, results are generated using a set of urban morphology units so that detailed and time-consuming accounting of individual building and road emissions is not required. The model estimates a mean heat emission of 6.12 Wm^-2 across Greater Manchester, with values in the region of 10 Wm^-2 for non central urbanized areas and 23 Wm^-2 in city center areas. Despite this difference, the results are not described by a simple distance decay function, as has been reported for other cities, due to the influence of satellite towns and the influence of the road network. Buildings are the dominant emitter, contributing some 60% of total emissions across the city compared to around 32% for road traffic and 8% for metabolic sources.     

全球年平均人为热释放气候强迫的估算

利用能源经济领域具有权威性的英国石油公司(BP)世界能源统计资料和联合国人口统计资料,通过一些简单的数值计算,初步估算了人为热释放的全球气候强迫。结果表明:当前(2008年)全球年平均人为热释放的气候强迫还不是很大,约为0.031W/m2;但随着人口及能源消费总量的增加,未来人为热释放产生的全球年平均气候强迫将有可能达0.30W/m2。     

广州地区人为热释放的日变化和年际变化估算

基于《广州市统计年鉴》2001~2012年数据估算了广州2000~2011年人为热释放的日变化以及年际变化,计算中考虑了人类新陈代谢、工业、交通以及生活排放人为热。计算结果显示:4种排放源中工业12年平均达到了55%,交通达到36%,其次依次为生活排放和新陈代谢排放。总的人为热在这12年时间里大致呈现上升的趋势,从2000年的2.7×1017 J增加到2011年的4.4×1017 J,但在2006年后有小幅的下降,这主要是由于工业释放是人为热释放的主要部分,在2006年后工业能源效率有所提高以致能源消耗排放率下降造成的。日变化在10:00(北京时间,下同)和14:00达到最大,并且12年间随时间的推移日变化呈现出下降的趋势,主要是由于城市化进程的速度远远快于能源消耗、人口和车辆保有量增加的速度。对比WRF模式中城市模块中的人为热释放的日变化系数,这些原始系数在广州使用的误差主要与广州地区和西方国家的生产生活作息时间有关。     

Effect Of A Heat Island On The Meteorology Of A Complex Urban Airshed

A three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to study the effect of an urban heat island in a relatively complex situation. A heat emission inventory was carried out for an urban airshed thatincludes sources such as motor vehicles, waste heat from industries and electricity consumption. To demonstrate the relative significance of anthropogenic heat flux and variant surface characteristics, three model simulations were conducted. In the first simulation, anthropogenic heat flux was ignored and non-variant surface properties were considered for the entire modelling domain. In the second simulation, variant surface characteristics were considered. While in the third simulation, gridded anthropogenic heat flux and variant surface characteristic were utilised. From these experiments, it was inferred that an additional source of heat in urban areas can substantially affect the wind and temperature regime under light wind conditions. During the day, the anthropogenic heat flux has minimum effect on the urban temperature, however it magnifies the intensity of the convergence near the urban areas.     

Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

气溶胶对东亚冬季风影响的数值模拟

利用NCAR/UCAR CAM5.1模式研究气溶胶对东亚冬季风的影响。模式从1991—2010年运行20年,取2001—2010年冬季的结果。模式结果可以较好地再现东亚冬季风的主要特征。试验结果表明:气溶胶增加使我国东南部地区和东北亚地区（35°~55°N,115°~150°E）冬季风减弱,同时,造成我国东南部地区降水减少。其中,热源热汇的变化和无辐散风减弱为主要原因。气溶胶增加改变了大气热源的分布,造成在我国东南部地区热源减弱,热汇加强;我国东北地区热汇减弱,日本列岛热源加强;气溶胶增加使这些区域全位能的产生减弱,消耗加强。同时,凝结潜热的变化主要影响热源和热汇,其中大尺度过程产生的凝结潜热变化起主要作用。在我国东南部和东北亚地区辐散风动能向全位能的转换增加,造成辐散风减弱。故该区域辐散风向无辐散风的转换减弱,导致无辐散风减弱,最终造成东亚冬季风减弱。     

中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的协同控制效应研究

目前,交通行业已成为中国局地大气污染物和温室气体的重要排放来源之一,而且随着交通运输规模的不断扩大,与工业和生活排放相比,交通排放贡献占比呈相对增加趋势。文中构建了“CGE-CIMS联合模型”,对中国交通行业实施环境经济政策的局地大气污染物和CO₂协同控制效应进行量化评估。结果显示,与BAU情景相比,环境税、碳税、成品油消费税以及政策组合情景均促进了交通行业的电力消费替代汽油、柴油等石油制品,即使考虑政策实施后电力消费增加导致的间接排放,各情景下综合大气污染物协同减排量（ICER）仍为正值,即各项环境经济政策均具有较好的协同控制局地大气污染物和CO₂的效果。本文最后提出了包括聚焦高排放交通工具,以补贴低碳交通方式配合绿色税制改革,以及电力行业低碳发展等交通行业实施环境经济政策的配套措施建议。     

Precipitation chemistry and ozone and sulfate concentrations in the ocean atmosphere observed by multi-year cruising in East Asia and West Oceania (35°N–35°S, 100–135°E) in August and September

A comprehensive study on the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere was carried out for the data sets in 1990’s. It is important to study the atmospheric situation over the past years as well as the latest, especially in the East Asian region where emission amount of anthropogenic air pollutants have increased year by year due to rapid economic growth. The survey was conducted for 5 years in East Asia and West Oceania (35°N–35°S, 100–135°E) in August and September in 1990’s. The purpose of the survey was to study and understand the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere comprehensively in one project. Rainfall over the ocean was insufficiently neutralized. Gas and aerosol over the ocean were mature, i.e., well-mixed, during the period of the transportation. The characteristic latitudinal dependence was observed in the tropospheric ozone concentration, namely, higher in the southern hemisphere and lower in the northern hemisphere (approximately 25 ppb in the 10–40°S region and 5–15 ppb in the 20–40°N region). On the other hand, high concentrations of tropospheric ozone of over 30 ppb were observed in the northern hemisphere, which was attributable to the long-range transportation. The TSP concentration was approximately under the level of 40 μg m^?3 irrespectively of the latitude; in contrast, the nss-SO₄ ^2- concentration showed a clear latitudinal dependence, i.e., higher in the northern hemisphere and lower in the southern hemisphere. The background levels of the nss-SO₄ ^2- concentration were approximately 0.5 μg m^?3 in the 10–40°S region and 2–3 μg m^?3 and 4–5 μg m^?3 in the 0–20°N and 20–40°N regions, respectively.     

北京市高分辨率CO2排放清单研究

CO2排放清单是推动城市低碳发展的重要基础工作.文中采用自下而上和自上而下相结合的方法测算了2017年北京市CO2排放清单.自下而上方面,基于近13000座锅炉数据核算了CO2排放量.自上而下方面,利用改编后的北京市分行业分品种能源消费表对自下而上核算的分行业能源消费数据进行校验,从宏观上控制核算数据的系统误差.研究发...     

The radiative forcing benefits of “cool roof” construction in California: quantifying the climate impacts of building albedo modification

Exploiting surface albedo change has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the heating effect of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent modeling experiments have projected significant negative radiative forcing from large-scale implementation of albedo reduction technologies (“cool” roofs and pavements). This paper complements such model studies with measurement-based calculations of the direct radiation balance impacts of replacement of conventional roofing with “cool” roof materials in California. This analysis uses, as a case study, the required changes to commercial buildings embodied in California’s building energy efficiency regulations, representing a total of 4300 ha of roof area distributed over 16 climate zones. The estimated statewide mean radiative forcing per 0.01 increase in albedo (here labeled RF01) is ?1.38 W/m². The resulting unit-roof-area mean annual radiative forcing impact of this regulation is ?44.2 W/m². This forcing is computed to counteract the positive radiative forcing of ambient atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of about 41 kg for each square meter of roof. Aggregated over the 4300 ha of cool roof estimated built in the first decade after adoption of the State regulation, this is comparable to removing about 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) of CO₂ from the atmosphere. The point radiation data used in this study also provide perspective on the spatial variability of cool roof radiative forcing in California, with individual climate zone effectiveness ranging from ?37 to ?59 W/m² of roof. These “bottom-up” calculations validate the estimates reported for published “top down” modeling, highlight the large spatial diversity of the effects of albedo change within even a limited geographical area, and offer a potential methodology for regulatory agencies to account for the climate effects of “cool” roofing in addition to its well-known energy efficiency benefits.     

对IPCC第五次评估报告部门减排路径和措施评估结果的解读

分析、解读了IPCC第五次评估报告对能源供应,工业,交通,建筑,农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）等部门温室气体和CO2减排途径和措施评估的主要结论。2000年以来,除了AFOLU,其他部门的温室气体排放量一直在增长。在增加的排放量中能源系统、工业、交通运输和建筑部门分别贡献了47%、30%、11%和3%。未来,这些部门仍将是全球温室气体的主要排放源和减排的重点领域。通过推进技术进步,持续提高能源效率,进一步优化能源结构,提高碳排放效率,提高原材料使用效率,强化废物管理,提高产品使用效率,减少对产品及相应服务的需求以及广泛利用碳捕获与封存和CO2去除技术,到2050年与基准情景相比,这些部门的CO2排放量可减少15%～80%。所有这些减排措施对我国主要部门减排CO2均具有借鉴意义。     

南京和长三角地区CO_2与CH_4人为排放清单估算的不确定性分析

目前温室气体清单的编制主要基于IPCC方法,该方法用于特定城市或区域清单编制时可能会引起较大的不确定性,而目前对城市/区域尺度清单的不确定性的分析还存在很大的欠缺。本文通过南京市和长三角温室气体排放因子甄选,应用IPCC方法计算了2009年南京市和长三角的人为温室气体排放量,并以其为个例利用蒙特卡洛方法开展城市和区域尺度的温室气体人为排放清单不确定性的初步探究。研究结果表明:南京市CH4和CO2排放量的95%的概率分布范围分别为(1.08~1.86)×105t和(6.50~7.41)×107t,不确定性分别为-21.74%~34.78%和-7.01%~5.87%;长三角CH4和CO2排放量的95%的概率分布范围分别为(4.07~5.89)×106t和(1.62~1.82)×109t,不确定性分别为-15.60%~22.24%和-6.04%~5.34%。     

Estimates of monoterpene and isoprene emissions from the forests in Switzerland

Emission rates of biogenic volatile organic compounds emitted by the forests were estimated for five geographical regions as well as for all Switzerland. Monoterpene and isoprene emissions rates were calculated for each main tree species separately using the relevant parameters such as temperature, light intensity and leaf biomass density. Biogenic emissions from the forests were found to be about 23% of the total annual VOC emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic) in Switzerland. The highest emissions are in July and lowest in January. Calculations showed that the coniferous trees are the main sources of the biogenic emissions. The major contribution comes from the Norway spruce (picea abies) forests due to their abundance and high leaf biomass density. Although broad-leaved forests cover 27% of all the forests in Switzerland, their contribution to the biogenic emissions is only 3%. Monoterpenes are the main species emitted, whereas only 3% is released as isoprene. The highest emission rates of biogenic VOC are estimated to be in the region of the Alps which has the largest forest coverage in Switzerland and the major part of these forests consists of Norway spruce. The total annual biogenic VOC emission rate of 87 ktonnes y^–1 coming from the forests is significantly higher than those from other studies where calculations were carried out by classifying the forests as deciduous and coniferous. The difference is attributed to the high leaf biomass densities of Norway spruce and fir (abies alba) trees which have a strong effect on the results when speciation of trees is taken into account. Besides the annual rate, emission rates were calculated for a specific period during July 4–6, 1991 when a photochemical smog episode was investigated in the Swiss field experiment POLLUMET. Emission rates estimated for that period agree well with those calculated for July using the average temperatures over the last 10 years.     

Effects of NOxand VOCs from Five Emission Sources on Summer Surface O3 over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

The impacts of emissions from industry,power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources on daily maximum surface ozone （O3DM） over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） region in North China in the summer of 2007 were examined in a modeling study.The modeling system consisted of the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model and the photochemical dispersion model,CAMx.The factor separation technique （FST） was used to quantify the effect of individual emission source types and the synergistic interactions among two or more types.Additionally,the effectiveness of emission reduction scenarios was explored.The industry,power plant,and transportation emission source types were found to be the most important in terms of their individual effects on O3DM.The key contributor to high surface O3 was power plant emissions,with a peak individual effect of 40 ppbv in the southwestern BTH area.The individual effect from the biogenic emission category was quite low.The synergistic effects from the combinations of each pair of anthropogenic emission types suppressed O3 formation,while the synergistic effects for combinations of three were favorable for O3 formation when the industrial and power plant emission source types coexisted.The quadruple synergistic effects were positive only with the combination of power plant,transportation,residential,and biogenic sources,while the quintuple synergistic effect showed only minor impacts on O3DM concentrations.A 30％ reduction in industrial and transportation sources produced the most effective impacts on O3 concentrations,with a maximum decrease of 20 ppbv.These results suggested that the synergistic impacts among emission source types should be considered when formulating emission control strategies for O3 reduction.     

Recent climatic change,greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

Summary In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions.India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data.Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively.According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population.About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy sources. In all cases, serious institulional barriers and resource limitations need to be addressed. The scope for carbon sequestration is limiled by land availabilily and other factors. It is argued that any response to global warming must be located firmly in the framework of sustainable development.With 5 Figures     

Temperature and precipitation long-term trends and variations in the Ili-Balkhash Basin

This study analyzed the long-term trends and variations of temperature and precipitation on annual timescale in the Ili-Balkhash Basin (IBB), Kazakhstan. Some statistical tools were employed to detect any climate variations at four stations in the IBB during the period between 1936 and 2005. These methods included the Mann–Kendall trend test, the Theil–Sen approach, and the sequential Mann–Kendall test. The results showed that in temporal scale, the climate in the IBB has been becoming warmer and wetter in the past several decades as a whole. The annual mean temperature and the annual precipitation in the IBB showed an increasing trend since the 1970s and the 1940s, respectively. The significance of the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation trends in the IBB was tested at >95 % confidence level. The slope of the increasing trend of annual mean temperature ranges from 0.019 to 0.029 °C/year, and that of the annual precipitation ranges from 0.654 to 2.179 mm/year. In spatial scale, the multiyear mean values of temperature and precipitation are greater in the southern mountain region than those in the northern plain and hilly land area of the basin. The multiyear mean temperature decreases with the increasing latitudes, while increases with the increasing altitudes except for Karaganda; the multiyear mean precipitation increase with the increasing altitudes, while decreases centered with the Lake Balkhash from the surrounding area. The results may provide climatic backgrounds for solving the problems related to water sources of the IBB.     

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.