Change of Support in Spatial Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis

Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is used to study how the variance of the output of a model can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. GSA is an essential component of model building as it helps to identify model inputs that account for most of the model output variance. However, this approach is seldom applied to spatial models because it cannot describe how uncertainty propagation interacts with another key issue in spatial modeling: the issue of model upscaling, that is, a change of spatial support of model output. In many environmental models, the end user is interested in the spatial average or the sum of the model output over a given spatial unit (for example, the average porosity of a geological block). Under a change of spatial support, the relative contribution of uncertain model inputs to the variance of aggregated model output may change. We propose a simple formalism to discuss this issue within a GSA framework by defining point and block sensitivity indices. We show that the relative contribution of an uncertain spatially distributed model input increases with its correlation length and decreases with the size of the spatial unit considered for model output aggregation. The results are briefly illustrated by a simple example.     

Feasibility of geoelectrical monitoring and multiphase modeling for process understanding of gaseous CO2 injection into a shallow aquifer

Potential pathways in the subsurface may allow upwardly migrating gaseous CO₂ from deep geological storage formations to be released into near surface aquifers. Consequently, the availability of adequate methods for monitoring potential CO₂ releases in both deep geological formations and the shallow subsurface is a prerequisite for the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage technology. Geoelectrical surveys are carried out for monitoring a small-scale and temporally limited CO₂ injection experiment in a pristine shallow aquifer system. Additionally, the feasibility of multiphase modeling was tested in order to describe both complex non-linear multiphase flow processes and the electrical behavior of partially saturated heterogeneous porous media. The suitability of geoelectrical methods for monitoring injected CO₂ and geochemically altered groundwater was proven. At the test site, geoelectrical measurements reveal significant variations in electrical conductivity in the order of 15?C30?%. However, site-specific conditions (e.g., geological settings, groundwater composition) significantly influence variations in subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently, the feasibility of geoelectrical monitoring. The monitoring results provided initial information concerning gaseous CO₂ migration and accumulation processes. Geoelectrical monitoring, in combination with multiphase modeling, was identified as a useful tool for understanding gas phase migration and mass transfer processes that occur due to CO₂ intrusions in shallow aquifer systems.     

Coupled Hydro-mechanical Processes Associated with Multiphase Flow in a Dual-continuum System: Formulations and an Application

Fractured rock has often been conceptualized as a dual-continuum system for many practical applications. This study proposes a systematic approach to deal with multiphase flow in a dual-continuum system. Considering that fluid flow occurs in pore volumes (including fracture apertures), we first develop a so-called pore-space conservation equation for deformed fractured rock and then combine this equation with fluid mass balance to derive governing equations for multiphase flow associated with rock deformation. Constitutive relationships are also presented for describing stress dependence of hydraulic properties and effective mechanical parameters for bulk rock body (as a function of the corresponding parameters for fracture and matrix continua). Finally, we applied the developed approach to a CO₂ geological sequestration problem to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach.     

全国二氧化碳地质储存适宜性评价编图技术方法研究

将全国CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性评价工作划分为5个阶段,依次为区域级预测潜力(E级)评价、盆地级推定潜力(D级)评价、目标区级控制潜力(C级)评价、场地级基础储存量(B级)评价和灌注级工程储存量(A级)评价阶段.第一阶段编制的成果图件主要为全国1∶500万CO2地质储存成果图系;第二、三阶段主要编制沉积盆地CO2地质储存成果图集;第四、五阶段主要编制CO2地质储存示范工程成果图册.提出中国CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性评价和编图是一项有步骤、分阶段逐步完成的工程,评价及编图方法有待通过潜力与适宜性评价和编图的实践不断完善.     

OpenGeoSys-ChemApp: a coupled simulator for reactive transport in multiphase systems and application to CO2 storage formation in Northern Germany

Sequestration of CO₂ into a deep geological reservoir causes a complex interaction of different processes such as multiphase flow, phase transition, multicomponent transport, and geochemical reactions between dissolved CO₂ and the mineral matrix of the porous medium. A prognosis of the reservoir behaviour and the feedback from large-scale geochemical alterations require efficient process-based numerical models. For this purpose, the multiphase flow and multicomponent transport code OpenGeoSys-Eclipse have been coupled to the geochemical model ChemApp. The newly developed coupled simulator was successfully verified for correctness and accuracy of the implemented reaction module by benchmarking tests. The code was then applied to assess the impact of geochemical reactions during CO₂ sequestration at a hypothetical but typical Bunter sandstone formation in the Northern German Basin. Injection and spreading of 1.48 × 10⁷ t of CO₂ in an anticline structure of the reservoir were simulated over a period of 20 years of injection plus 80 years of post-injection time. Equilibrium geochemical calculations performed by ChemApp show only a low reactivity to the geochemical system. The increased acidity of the aqueous solution results in dissolution of small amounts of calcite, anhydrite, and quartz. Geochemical alterations of the mineral phase composition result in slight increases in porosity and permeability, which locally may reach up to +0.02 and 0.1 %, respectively.     

Potential and Suitability Evaluation of CO2 Geological Storage in Major Sedimentary Basins of China, and the Demonstration Project in Ordos Basin

From 2010 to 2012, the China Geological Survey Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey (CHEGS) carried out the project “Potential evaluation and demonstration project of CO2 Geological Storage in China”. During this project, we developed an evaluation index system and technical methods for the potential and suitability of CO2 geological storage based on China’s geological conditions, and evaluated the potential and suitability of the primary basins for CO2 geological storage, in order to draw a series of regional scale maps (at a scale of 1:5000000) and develop an atlas of the main sedimentary basins in China. By using these tools, we delineated many potential targets for CO2 storage. We also built techniques and methods for site selection and the exploration and assessment of CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers. Furthermore, through cooperation with the China Shenhua Coal to Liquid and Chemical Co., Ltd., we successfully constructed the first coal-based demonstration project for CO2 geological storage in deep saline aquifers in the Yijinhuoluo Banner of Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which brought about the basic preliminary theories, techniques, and methods of geological CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers under China’s geological conditions.     

Delineating hazardous CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> fluxes from acid mine drainage

Incidents of hazardous accumulations of CO₂ in homes built on or near reclaimed mine land, in the last decade, have been shown to be linked to neutralization reactions between acidic mine drainage and carbonate material. Recent research has shown that CO₂ fluxes on reclaimed mine land with this hazard are, sometimes, spatially autocorrelated (i.e., the spatial variability is not random). This result implies geostatistics can be used to delineate hazardous areas where fluxes are likely to exceed established thresholds. This study applies sequential Gaussian simulation to delineate this emerging hazard on a site in southwestern Indiana, USA. Due to lack of regulatory threshold limits for CO₂ flux at the current time, the authors conduct a sensitivity analysis of the threshold limit using the 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of the measured fluxes for the first day of monitoring. These limits are used to produce hazard maps, which are validated with the known hazard at the site. This work further shows the potential of surface CO₂ flux monitoring as a cheap and effective strategy to monitor and delineate such hazards to avoid residential and commercial real estate development in high risk zones.     

Geological modeling and simulation of CO2 injection in the Johansen formation

The Johansen formation is a candidate site for large-scale CO₂ storage offshore of the south-western coast of Norway. An overview of the geology for the Johansen formation and neighboring geological formations is given, together with a discussion of issues for geological and geophysical modelling and integrated fluid flow modelling. We further describe corresponding simulation models. Major issues to consider are capacity estimation and processes that could potentially cause CO₂ to leak out of the Johansen formation and into the formations above. Currently, these issues can only be investigated through numerical simulation. We consider the effect of different boundary conditions, sensitivity with respect to vertical grid refinement and permeability/transmisibility data, and the effect of residual gas saturations, since these strongly affect the CO₂-plume distribution. The geological study of the Johansen formation is performed based on available seismic and well data. Fluid simulations are performed using a commercial simulator capable of modelling CO₂ flow and transport by simple manipulation of input files and data. We provide details for the data and the model, with a particular focus on geology and geometry for the Johansen formation. The data set is made available for download online.     

中国二氧化碳地质储存潜力评价与示范工程

2010—2012年,中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心承担完成的“全国二氧化碳地质储存潜力评价与示范工程计划项目”,全面建立了我国二氧化碳地质储存潜力与适宜性评价指标体系与评价技术方法,评价了主要沉积盆地的二氧化碳地质储存潜力与适宜性,完成了全国1∶500万评价图系和主要盆地评价图集编制,圈定出一批二氧化碳地质储存目标靶区;构建了深部咸水层二氧化碳地质储存工程选址、场地勘查与评价技术方法;与神华集团合作,在内蒙古鄂尔多斯市伊金霍洛旗成功实施了我国首个深部咸水层二氧化碳地质储存示范工程,基本形成了我国二氧化碳地质储存基本理论和技术方法体系。     

Contrasting Carbon Dioxide Inputs and Exchange in Three Adjacent New England Estuaries

Four surveys of the adjacent Cocheco, Bellamy, and Oyster estuaries reveal spatial heterogeneity with respect both to river-born carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes and CO₂ exchange with the atmosphere (−17 to 51 mmol m⁻² day⁻¹), a finding partially explained by CO₂ inputs from contributing watersheds. Nonuniform nutrient and organic carbon loading from upstream rivers and within the estuaries is considered as a mechanism resulting in the variability between estuaries. Conditions during the surveys included spring river runoff and phytoplankton blooms, drought with baseline river flow, and a historic flood which led to a large CO₂ release to the atmosphere. This study highlights the variability of CO₂ transport and release found between proximate estuaries over a wide range of flow conditions.     

Multiple-point geostatistical modeling based on the cross-correlation functions

An important issue in reservoir modeling is accurate generation of complex structures. The problem is difficult because the connectivity of the flow paths must be preserved. Multiple-point geostatistics is one of the most effective methods that can model the spatial patterns of geological structures, which is based on an informative geological training image that contains the variability, connectivity, and structural properties of a reservoir. Several pixel- and pattern-based methods have been developed in the past. In particular, pattern-based algorithms have become popular due to their ability for honoring the connectivity and geological features of a reservoir. But a shortcoming of such methods is that they require a massive data base, which make them highly memory- and CPU-intensive. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for which there is no need to construct pattern data base and small data event. A new function for the similarity of the generated pattern and the training image, based on a cross-correlation (CC) function, is proposed that can be used with both categorical and continuous training images. We combine the CC function with an overlap strategy and a new approach, adaptive recursive template splitting along a raster path, in order to develop an algorithm, which we call cross-correlation simulation (CCSIM), for generation of the realizations of a reservoir with accurate conditioning and continuity. The performance of CCSIM is tested for a variety of training images. The results, when compared with those of the previous methods, indicate significant improvement in the CPU and memory requirements.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Fracture Reactivation Associated with Deep Underground CO2 Injection

In the context of carbon capture and storage, deep underground injection of CO₂ induces the geomechanical changes within and around the injection zone and their impact on CO₂ storage security should be evaluated. In this study, we conduct coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical modeling to investigate such geomechanical changes, focusing on probabilistic analysis of injection-induced fracture reactivation (such as shear slip) that could lead to enhanced permeability and CO₂ migration across otherwise low-permeability caprock formations. Fracture reactivation in terms of shear slip was analyzed by implicitly considering the fracture orientations generated using the Latin hypercube sampling method, in one case using published fracture statistics from a CO₂ storage site. The analysis was conducted by a coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulation to first calculate the three-dimensional stress evolution during a hypothetical CO₂ injection operation and then evaluate the probability of shear slip considering the statistical fracture distribution and a Coulomb failure analysis. We evaluate the probability of shear slip at different points within the injection zone and in the caprock just above the injection zone and relate this to the potential for opening of new flow paths through the caprock. Our analysis showed that a reverse faulting stress field would be most favorable for avoiding fracture shear reactivation, but site-specific analyses will be required because of strong dependency of the local stress field and fracture orientations.     

A numerical study of mineral alteration and self-sealing efficiency of a caprock for CO2 geological storage

Geochemical interactions of brine–rock–gas have a significant impact on the stability and integrity of the caprock for long-term CO₂ geological storage. Invasion of CO₂ into the caprock from the storage reservoir by (1) molecular diffusion of dissolved CO₂, (2) CO₂-water two-phase flow after capillary breakthrough, and (3) CO₂ flow through existing open fractures may alter the mineralogy, porosity, and mechanical strength of the caprock due to the mineral dissolution or precipitation. This determines the self-enhancement or self-sealing efficiency of the caprock. In this paper, two types of caprock, a clay-rich shale and a mudstone, are considered for the modeling analyses of the self-sealing and self-enhancement phenomena. The clay-rich shale taken from the Jianghan Basin of China is used as the base-case model. The results are compared with a mudstone caprock which is compositionally very different than the clay-rich shale. We focus on mineral alterations induced by the invasion of CO₂, feedback on medium properties such as porosity, and the self-sealing efficiency of the caprock. A number of sensitivity simulations are performed using the multiphase reactive transport code TOUGHREACT to identify the major minerals that have an impact on the caprock’s self-sealing efficiency. Our model results indicate that under the same hydrogeological conditions, the mudstone is more suitable to be used as a caprock. The sealing distances are barely different in the two types of caprock, both being about 0.6 m far from the interface between the reservoir and caprock. However, the times of occurrence of sealing are considerably different. For the mudstone model, the self-sealing occurs at the beginning of simulation, while for the clay-rich shale model, the porosity begins to decline only after 100 years. At the bottom of the clay-rich shale column, the porosity declines to 0.034, while that of mudstone declines to 0.02. The sensitive minerals in the clay-rich shale model are calcite, magnesite, and smectite-Ca. Anhydrite and illite provide Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ to the sensitive minerals for their precipitation. The mudstone model simulation is divided into three stages. There are different governing minerals in different stages, and the effect of the reservoir formation water on the alteration of sensitive minerals is significant.     

Development and testing of a contamination potential mapping system for a portion of the General Separations Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina

 A methodology was developed to evaluate and map the contamination potential or aquifer sensitivity of the upper groundwater flow system of a portion of the General Separations Area (GSA) at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to integrate diverse subsurface geologic data, soils data, and hydrology utilizing a stack-unit mapping approach to construct mapping layers. This is the first time that such an approach has been used to delineate the hydrogeology of a coastal plain environment. Unit surface elevation maps were constructed for the tops of six Tertiary units derived from over 200 boring logs. Thickness or isopach maps were created for five hydrogeologic units by differencing top and basal surface elevations. The geologic stack-unit map was created by stacking the five isopach maps and adding codes for each stack-unit polygon. Stacked-units were rated according to their hydrogeologic properties and ranked using a logarithmic approach (utility theory) to establish a contamination potential index. Colors were assigned to help display relative importance of stacked-units in preventing or promoting transport of contaminants. The sensitivity assessment included the effects of surface soils on contaminants which are particularly important for evaluating potential effects from surface spills. Hydrogeologic/hydrologic factors did not exhibit sufficient spatial variation to warrant incorporation into contamination potential assessment. Development of this contamination potential mapping system provides a useful tool for site planners, environmental scientists, and regulatory agencies. Received: 1 April 1997 · Accepted: 4 November 1997     

Regional search, selection and geological characterization of a large anticlinal structure, as a candidate site for CO2-storage in northern Germany

This paper reports on the regional screening, selection and geological characterisation of a potential on-shore CO₂ storage site (saline aquifer) in north-eastern Germany. The main objective of this study was to identify and investigate a candidate storage site, capable to accommodate the total amount of approximately 400 million tons of CO₂. Such a volume is produced by a modern, lignite-fired power plant within its operation lifetime of approximately 40 years. Within north-eastern Germany, several saline aquifers of Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous age have been evaluated with respect to their regional occurrence, storage potential and basic reservoir properties. Subsequent to a ranking, considering different criteria, the anticlinal structure Schweinrich holding suitable saline aquifers of the uppermost Triassic and lowest Jurassic has been selected from a number of identified candidate sites. According to results of the geological site characterisation, including structural geological investigations and 3D reservoir modelling, the structure Schweinrich seems to be a suitable site for industrial large scale CO₂ storage. Further data acquisition (new wells and 3D seismics) and research (more detailed and comprehensive modelling) is needed in order to prove the structural integrity of the storage site and assure long-term safety.     

基于集合卡尔曼滤波的多相流模型参数估计——以室内二维砂箱中重质非水相污染物入渗为例

重质非水相有机污染物(DNAPL)泄漏到地下后,其运移与分布特征受渗透率非均质性影响显著。为刻画DNAPL污染源区结构特征,需进行参数估计以描述水文地质参数的非均质性。本研究构建了基于集合卡尔曼滤波方法(EnKF)与多相流运移模型的同化方案,通过融合DNAPL饱和度观测数据推估非均质介质渗透率空间分布。通过二维砂箱实际与理想算例,验证了同化方法的推估效果,并探讨了不同因素对同化的影响。研究结果表明:基于EnKF方法同化饱和度观测资料可有效地推估非均质渗透率场;参数推估精度随观测时空密度的增大而提高;观测点位置分布对同化效果有所影响,布置在污染集中区域的观测数据对于参数估计具有较高的数据价值。     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

A sensitivity analysis of factors affecting in geologic CO2 storage in the Ordos Basin and its contribution to carbon neutrality

To accelerate the achievement of China’s carbon neutrality goal and to study the factors affecting the geologic CO₂ storage in the Ordos Basin, China’s National Key R&D Programs propose to select the Chang 6 oil reservoir of the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin as the target reservoir to conduct the geologic carbon capture and storage (CCS) of 100000 t per year. By applying the basic theories of disciplines such as seepage mechanics, multiphase fluid mechanics, and computational fluid mechanics and quantifying the amounts of CO₂ captured in gas and dissolved forms, this study investigated the effects of seven factors that influence the CO₂ storage capacity of reservoirs, namely reservoir porosity, horizontal permeability, temperature, formation stress, the ratio of vertical to horizontal permeability, capillary pressure, and residual gas saturation. The results show that the sensitivity of the factors affecting the gas capture capacity of CO₂ decreases in the order of formation stress, temperature, residual gas saturation, horizontal permeability, and porosity. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of the factors affecting the dissolution capture capacity of CO₂ decreases in the order of formation stress, residual gas saturation, temperature, horizontal permeability, and porosity. The sensitivity of the influencing factors can serve as the basis for carrying out a reasonable assessment of sites for future CO₂ storage areas and for optimizing the design of existing CO₂ storage areas. The sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors will provide basic data and technical support for implementing geologic CO₂ storage and will assist in improving geologic CO₂ storage technologies to achieve China’s carbon neutralization goal.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.