灰色控制系统GM（1,1）动态模型预测发震时刻的一种方法

应用GM(1,1)模型,选取全国1966至1986年每月Ms≥6.0级以及1970至1986年每月5.5≤Ms<6.6地震集合的时间序列,作为建立预报发震时刻模型的样本,分别给出了四个震级区间即Ms≥7.0,6.5≤Ms<7.0,6.0≤Ms<6.5,5.5≤Ms<6.0相应的预测发震时刻的微分方程的解算结果——时刻函数形式的时间(离散)响应动态模型 (K+1),且对衡量模型精度的关联度R进行了计算。用此模型对所取样本进行了预测检验,取得了较满意的结果。     

非等步长GM(1,1)模型在建筑物变形监测中的应用研究

将灰色系统理论应用于建筑物变形监测数据分析,针对观测周期的不确定性因素,提出使用非等步长GM(1,1)模型进行监测,并用最小二乘法求解模型参数,给出模型精度的检验方法,并以实际的建筑物的沉降观测数据为例说明应用此方法的全部过程,将分析和预测结果与传统GM模型进行比对,获得了更好的拟合数据和预测数据,且精度更高。     

铁磁形状记忆合金研究进展与展望（Ⅱ）：本构模型

阐述了铁磁形状记忆合金（Ferromagnetic Shape Memory Alloy,简写为FSMA）本构模型研究的重要性。以时间为顺序,重点介绍了FSMA本构模型研究的发展历程和研究现状。仔细分析了各种FSMA本构模型在理论基础、适用范围、精度以及复杂程度等方面的特点,讨论了各种理论应用于FSMA本构模型的局限性,指出了它们在面向应用时存在的问题。研究表明,由于FSMA兼具磁致形状记忆效应、热弹性形状记忆效应等多种独特性能,使对其本构模型的研究存在一定困难,进一步的研究还有待开展。最后指出,对既能揭示FSMA微观机理又能预测其宏观热磁力学行为的本构模型、描述FSMA所有特性的统一模型、面向应用的FSMA简化本构模型等问题,尚有待深入研究。     

以介质参数尾波Q~（－1）作为响应的加卸载响应比研究

以地球介质参数尾波Ｑ（－１）作为响应，给出了加卸载响应比Ｙ（Ｑ－１）的计算公式。利用美国南加州地区频率分别为１．５Ｈｚ，３．０Ｈｚ，６．０Ｈｚ，１２．０Ｈｚ，２４．０Ｈｚ等５个频段的尾波Ｑ数据，研究了美国北岭地震（１９９年１月１７日，Ｍｗ６．７）前后的加卸载响应比Ｙ（Ｑ－１）随时间的变化。结果表明，除频率为１２．０Ｈｚ这一频段外，其它频段的加卸载响应比Ｙ（Ｑ－１）在震前都有不同程度的变化，其中频率为２４．０Ｈｚ的Ｙ（Ｑ－１）在１９９３年明显升高。震后各频段的Ｙ（Ｑ－１）趋于正常。     

FRP（钢绞线）加筋混凝土梁正截面受弯承载力计算

纤维增强复合筋、不锈钢绞线等高强材料作为混凝土梁的受力筋可以充分发挥强度高、耐腐蚀性能好等优点,在土木工程中得到了广泛应用。为了分析此类高强材料加筋混凝土梁的受弯性能,在平截面假定基础上,对混凝土和受力纵筋分别采用混凝土Hongnestad模型和线弹性模型,通过平衡条件,推导了FRP（钢绞线）加筋混凝土梁受弯承载力的计算公式,并与国内外82根简支梁的试验结果进行了对比。研究结果表明：加筋混凝土梁抗弯强度试验值与理论值之比的平均值为1.07,标准差为0.14。建议公式可以较好地计算FRP（钢绞线）加筋混凝土梁的受弯承载力。实际工程构件抗弯截面设计时,建议安全配筋率取1.4倍平衡配筋率,设计截面弯矩取0.625倍理论受弯承载力,以使构件具有足够安全储备。     

强震前的“加速矩释放”（AMR）现象：对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究

近年来,国际上对于强震前的加速矩释放（AMR）现象是否可作为一种可靠的、带有普遍性的地震前兆现象争议较大.本文以2008年3月21日新疆于田MS7.3地震为例,试图从前兆存在的客观性和与地震发生的物理相关性两方面考察本次地震前的AMR现象.用“破裂时间分析”方程中的幂指数m作为描述震前加速矩释放“程度”的参量,在时间-空间-地震序列截止震级组成的三维参数空间（T,R,Mc）内考察AMR现象存在的客观性.考虑了多种因素对m（T, R, Mc）分布图像可能的影响,其中,余震是否删除和Mc对计算影响不大,但ML6.0以上“干扰”事件的影响则较大.结果表明,于田地震前的确存在AMR现象,但得到的m（T, R, Mc）分布图像较为复杂,可观测到两个明显的AMR集中分布区.此外,在以实际震中为圆心的多个圆形区域内,使用固定时间窗向实际发震时刻滑动逼近,可观测到m值逐渐减小,即加速特征逐渐明显的过程.对震前矩释放程度m值的时-空扫描结果显示,出现AMR现象的空间区域与震中位置似有较好的对应,但其时-空演化图像与滑动时-空窗的选取有关.这表明,本次MS7.3地震前的确存在AMR现象,并与其孕震过程在物理上相关.但本文仅是一个震例的研究,无法给出具有统计显著性的结论,此外,用AMR来约束地震发生的时间看来是困难的.     

GM(1,1)-Markov模型在地震应急基础数据更新中的应用

受灾地区的国民生产总值(GDP)数据是地震应急基础数据库中一类重要的基础数据,由于数据收集的周期较长,造成GDP数据的现势性差.利用灰色一马尔可夫模型(GM(1,1 )-Markov 模型),建立甘肃省县一级GDP增长模型,实现静态GDP基础数据在地震发生时的动态计算,使其接近于社会经济发展的实际情况;在实际数据未得到...     

四川理县蒲溪乡边坡变形监测及降雨影响分析

四川省阿坝州理县蒲溪乡河坝村后山边坡属于老滑坡区,2014年6月以来,出现地表拉裂、鼓胀、下挫及挡墙剪切错断等现象,并不断加剧恶化,严重威胁当地民众安全。为预防滑坡灾害,当地政府在边坡前修建防护坝。为评估该防护工程效果,获取6个新建GNSS观测点实时变形观测数据,运用灰色关联法,明确降水变率是造成该区形变的主要因素,进而采用边坡变形量行业常用GM(1, 1)模型,预测可能的边坡形变量,并与GNSS观测点实测值对比,结果表明,在防护坝建成1年7个月后,边坡变形速率逐渐减缓,防护工程治理效果显现。     

呼和浩特—包头地区平均波速比研究

The geological structure is complex in the Hohhot-Baotou area.Several earthquakes with MS≥6.0 have occurred in the area in history.This article selected the Hohhot-Baotou area as the study region and divided it into 2 sub-regions,each with a spatial scope of 3°×2°,according to the spatial distribution of ML≥1.0 earthquakes occurring between January 2001 and April 2010,and the layout of the seismic network in the study region.Average velocity ratios of respective sub-regions were calculated,and comparative analysis was made on their temporal and spatial variations.Results show that there are slight differences between sub-regions in the variation amplitude of average velocity ratio curves over time,which mostly remains between 2.5% to 2.584%.In the Hohhot area,the average velocity ratio is 1.722,significantly lower than the average velocity ratio of 1.733 in the Baotou area.We preliminarily concluded that this was related to the distribution of fault structures and properties of underground media in the Hohhot area.     

Low resistivity oil(gas)-bearing reservoir conductive model --Dual water clay matrix conductive model in the north area of Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China

Shaly sands reservoir is one of the most distributive types of the oil(gas)-bearing reservoirs discovered in China, and low resistivity oil(gas)-bearing reservoirs are mostly shaly sands reservoirs. Therefore, shaly sands reservoir conductive model is the key to evaluate low resistivity oil(gas)-bearing reservoirs using logging information. Some defects were found when we studied the clay distribution type conductive model, dual-water conductive model, conductive rock matrix model, etc. Some models could not distinguish the conductive path and nature of microporosity water and clay water and some models did not consider the clay distribution type and the mount of clay volume. So, we utilize the merits,overcome the defects of the above models, and put forward a new shaly sands conductive model-dual water clay matrix conductive model (DWCMCM) in which dual water is the free water and the microporosity water in shaly sands and the clay matrix(wet clay) is the clay grain containing water. DWCMCM is presented here, the advantages of which can tell the nature and conductive path from different water (microporosity water and freewater), in consid-eration of the clay distribution type and the mount of clay volume in shaly sands. So, the results of logging interpretation in the oil(gas)-bearing reservoirs in the north of Tarim Basin area, China with DWCMCM are better than those interpreted by the above models.     

晋冀蒙交界地区最小一维速度模型联合反演

文章使用内蒙古地震台网记录到的晋冀蒙交界地区517个定位地震,在参考原始编目报告的基础上,用和达法拟合走时曲线删除错误数据,使用Kissling方法联合反演得到晋冀蒙交界地区最小一维P波速度模型和震源位置。结果显示,研究区P波速度随着深度增加而递增,无明显间断面,联合反演得到的震中位置较原始报告分布更集中,簇状分布更明显。     

中原地区M≥6级地震后的减(增)震效应

通过对中原地区1500年－2000年所有19次M≥6级地震后空间图像的分析，初步认为M≥6级地震发生后平均63年内，在距原震中平均176km内无M≥5级地震发生，全部19次震例均呈现出内部减震效应，而在其外围出现地震增强的活动图像特征，增震效应对应率为72％。这种强震后的减（增）震效应，不仅对地震危险性分析，而且对1年尺度以上的地震趋势预测均有一定的意义。     

A watershed-scale study of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge (Annapolis Valley,Nova Scotia,Canada)

Abstract

The potential impacts of future climate change on the evolution of groundwater recharge are examined at a local scale for a 546-km² watershed in eastern Canada. Recharge is estimated using the infiltration model Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP), with inputs derived from five climate runs generated by a regional climate model in combination with the A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The model runs project an increase in annual recharge over the 2041–2070 period. On a seasonal basis, however, a marked decrease in recharge during the summer and a marked increase during the winter are observed. The results suggest that increased evapotranspiration resulting from higher temperatures does not offset the large increase in winter infiltration. In terms of individual water budget components, clear differences are obtained for the different climate change scenarios. Monthly recharge values are also found to be quite variable, even for a given climate scenario. These findings are compared with results from two regional-scale studies.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor M. Besbes     

1911年2月1日福建德化4.7级地震的考证及同年2月6日江西九江5级地震的质疑

通过对有关资料的分析和考证,认为1911年2月1日福建德化县城关发生了一次破坏性地震,震中烈度Ⅵ度,震级344。同时分析了《时报》宣统三年正月二十九日第3页刊载的地震事件可能是指福建省德化县城关地震,而不是江西省九江发生的地震事件,因此对同年2月6日江西九江5级地震存疑。     

The Present Space-Time Motion and Deformation Features of the Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Xizang（Tibet） Block and Its Adjacent Area

On the basis of Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA), and considering the moderate intrusion of specific block boundaries to different extents, the first-order block motion model is established for the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) block and the kinematical model for depicting deformation of small regions as well by using GPS observations of three periods (1991, 1999 and 2001). By simulating, we obtained the motion features of the firstorder blocks between the large WWN faults on the sides of the studied region, the distribution features of the principal strain rate field and the inhomogeneous motion features with spacetime of the faults in the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block.