印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化

利用2003—2015年的重力恢复和气候实验(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)卫星观测数据, 揭示了印度洋海底压强的变化特征, 并探讨了其变化机制。结果表明, 印度洋海底压强具有显著的季节变化特征, 北半球冬季在40°S以北(南), 海底压强呈负(正)异常, 夏季分布与冬季相反。印度洋区域的海底压强空间分布与Ekman输送空间分布有较好的对应关系。正压涡度方程诊断结果表明, 利用风场重构的海底压强能够较好地解释印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化。此外, 海平面变化收支分析表明, 海底压强的变化在高纬度区域主导了海平面变化。     

Decadal variability in an OGCM Southern Ocean: Intrinsic modes,forced modes and metastable states

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to identify a Southern Ocean southeast Pacific intrinsic mode of low frequency variability. Using CORE data a comprehensive suite of experiments were carried out to elucidate excitation and amplification responses of this intrinsic mode to low frequency forcing (ENSO, SAM) and stochastic forcing due to high frequency winds. Subsurface anomalies were found to teleconnect the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) thermocline. The Pacific region of the ACC is characterised by intrinsic baroclinic disturbances that respond to both SAM and ENSO, while the Atlantic sector of the ACC is sensitive to higher frequency winds that act to amplify thermocline anomalies propagating downstream from the Pacific. Non-stationary cluster analysis was used to identify the system’s dynamical regimes and characterise meta-stability, persistence and transitions between the respective states. This analysis reveals significant trends, indicating fundamental changes to the meta-stability of the ocean dynamics in response to changes in atmospheric forcing. Intrinsic variability in sea-ice concentration was found to be coupled to thermocline processes. Sea-ice variability localised in the Atlantic was most closely associated with high frequency weather forcing. The SAM was associated with a circumpolar sea-ice response whereas ENSO was found to be a major driver of sea-ice variability only in the Pacific. This simulation study identifies plausible mechanisms that determine the predictability of the Southern Ocean climate on multi-decadal timescales.     

2000-2008年期间南海海面温度的年际与空间变异

通过对2000-2008年更高空间分辨率的南海海面温度(SST)的卫星遥感数据进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析,着重研究21世纪以来整个南海海域SST年际变化的时空变异,并探讨了其与南海海面风场和海面高度的关系,以及期间南海发生的两次负异常事件的特点和成因.SST年际变化的第一模态表现为全海盆同相变化,年际振荡主要发生在...     

Simulating present climate of the global ocean–ice system using the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM): simulation characteristics and variability in the Pacific sector

A long-term spin-up and a subsequent interannual simulation are conducted for the ocean–ice component of the climate model intercomparison project (CMIP)-class earth system model of the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute. This experiment has three purposes: first is to assess the ability of our model with the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs) forcing in reproducing the present ocean-climate; second is to understand the ocean-climate variability for the past 60 years; third is to present an example of evaluating an ocean–ice interannual variability simulation. The Pacific Ocean is focused on for the last two purposes. After integrating for about 1500 years with repeated use of a detrended CORE interannual forcing, the model reaches a quasi-steady state where the present climate is reproduced satisfactorily. Then, the interannual variability simulation is conducted with the retrieved forcing trend and the result is analyzed. The simulation is successful at reproducing the long-term variability in the Pacific and surrounding oceans. Brief analyses of the tropical and mid-latitude upper layer, deep circulation, and the Arctic sea ice are presented. A caveat in treating other parts of the globe is due to the recent intense convection in the Southern Ocean caused by a remarkably increasing trend of the Southern Hemisphere westerly. Overall, the current simulation with our CMIP-class ocean–ice model is shown to be useful for studying the present ocean-climate variability, specifically in the Pacific sector. It could also be used as a benchmark control experiment that facilitates further research, model development, and intercomparison.     

ENSO-induced interannual variability in the southeastern South China Sea

In this study, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced interannual variability in the South China Sea (SCS) is documented using outputs from an eddy-resolving data-assimilating model. It is suggested that during an El Niño (La Niña) event, off-equatorial upwelling (downwelling) Rossby waves induced by Pacific equatorial wind anomalies impinge on the Philippine Islands and excite upwelling (downwelling) coastal Kelvin waves that propagate northward along the west coast of the Philippines after entering the SCS through the Mindoro Strait. The coastal Kelvin waves may then induce negative (positive) sea level anomalies in the southeastern SCS and larger (smaller) volume transport through the Mindoro and Luzon Straits during an El Niño (La Niña) event.     

Can the mean structure of the tropical pycnocline affect ENSO period in coupled climate models?

The dynamical link between mean state biases and dominant timescales of interannual variability is examined using the output from two state-of-the-art coupled model simulations, results from an ocean-only simulation forced with observed surface fields, and various observational data sets. The focus of this study is the relative role of the mean upper ocean density structure vs. anomalous wind forcing in controlling the spectral characteristics of tropical Pacific interannual variability. It is shown that an extensive South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) creates a potential vorticity (PV) barrier in the Southern Hemisphere similar to the one associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Northern Hemisphere in both climate models. The PV barrier in the Southern Hemisphere strongly constrains the mean equatorward flow in the ocean model pycnocline, creating a “choke point” for the mean flow around 10°S. It is then examined whether the PV barrier can also limit the anomalous flow associated with mass recharge/discharge to/from the equatorial thermocline at interannual timescales. If the anomalous flow were impeded by the mean PV structure the meridional extent of the area involved in the mass recharge/discharge process would be narrower, leading to a shorter adjustment (and ENSO) timescale. Comparison of the two climate models, both of which have similarly erroneous PV structures in the southern tropical Pacific, but different interannual timescales, shows that the meridional extent of the anomalous meridional transport is primarily controlled by the latitudinal location of the wind stress curl anomalies, while the mean state bias in the Southern Hemisphere does not seem to have any significant influence.     

The Southern Annular Mode and opposite-phased Basin Mode of the Southern Ocean circulation

Over the Southern Ocean the dominant modes of the atmospheric field are known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Antarctic Oscillation, and the Pacific South American (PSA) pattern. Statistical analysis of sea surface wind (SSW) from satellite observation revealed two leading modes of SAM-like and PSA patterns. In the high latitudes, the SAM-like pattern of the SSW had a large amplitude over the Bellingshausen Basin and Australian-Antarctic Basin, with opposite phase between the two basins. On the intraseasonal time scale, large-scale sea surface height (SSH) also had notable variability, showing a basin-scale anti-phase mode over the two basins. To explain the response of oceanic variations to these atmospheric modes, we analyzed the relationship between the dominant modes of wind stress and large-scale SSH on the intraseasonal time scale. The SAM-like pattern of wind stress was correlated with the SSH variation over the two basins. The SSH basin mode was most simply explained by a simple barotropic response to the SAM-like mode of wind stress, with the curl of opposite phase between the two basins. We conclude that the zonal asymmetry of the wind field of the SAM plays an important role in driving the antiphase SSH basin modes.     

Long-term variability of oceanic frontal zones associated with large-scale atmospheric forcing

Global satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data for the period of 1982–2009 have been used to study the relationship between long-term variability of oceanic frontal zones (OFZ) and large-scale atmospheric forcing. Statistically significant positive correlations between the maximum magnitude of the meridional gradient of zonally averaged SST and meridional shear of zonal wind (which is an estimate of the Ekman convergence intensity) were found for all subpolar and subtropical OFZ of the World Ocean. Variability of the latitudinal position of OFZ cores may be associated with Ekman advection variability due to zonal wind variations. Strengthening of zonal wind results in a shift of subpolar OFZ cores to the south/north in the Northern/Southern hemispheres.     

Climatic variability of transport in the upper layer of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from hydrological and satellite data

Based on the satellite altimetry dataset of sea level anomalies, the climatic hydrological database World Ocean Atlas-2009, ocean reanalysis ECMWF ORA-S3, and wind velocity components from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the interannual variability of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport in the ocean upper layer is investigated for the period 1959–2008, and estimations of correlative connections between ACC transport and wind velocity components are performed. It has been revealed that the maximum (by absolute value) linear trends of ACC transport over the last 50 years are observed in the date-line region, in the Western and Eastern Atlantic and the western part of the Indian Ocean. The greatest increase in wind velocity for this period for the zonal component is observed in Drake Passage, at Greenwich meridian, in the Indian Ocean near 90° E, and in the date-line region; for the meridional component, it is in the Western and Eastern Pacific, in Drake Passage, and to the south of Africa. It has been shown that the basic energy-carrying frequencies of interannual variability of ACC transport and wind velocity components, as well as their correlative connections, correspond to the periods of basic large-scale modes of atmospheric circulation: multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, Southern Annual Mode, and Southern Oscillation. A significant influence of the wind field on the interannual variability of ACC transport is observed in the Western Pacific (140° E–160° W) and Eastern Pacific; Drake Passage and Western Atlantic (90°–30° W); in the Eastern Atlantic and Western Indian Ocean (10°–70° E). It has been shown in the Pacific Ocean that the ACC transport responds to changes of the meridional wind more promptly than to changes of the zonal wind.     

赤道印度洋上层环流辐合辐散的年际变异成因分析

印度洋上层海气相互作用对印度洋和太平洋气候系统有重要影响。目前针对印度洋气候态环流特征已有较为全面的研究,但针对印度洋环流的年际变化及其季节性差异的特征分析和具体作用机制,仍缺乏深入的研究。本文利用1979—2007年Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA)再分析资料研究了赤道印度洋表层辐合辐散的年际变异及其季节依赖性。结果表明,以赤道为中心,印度洋上层异常海流,在经向上形成显著的辐合(辐散)现象,究其原因主要是赤道纬向风异常形成的Ekman流所导致。进一步分析表明,热带印度洋异常纬向风的成因与太平洋-印度洋的热力强迫过程作用有关,并且不同的热力强迫过程呈现出显著的季节差异性。此热力强迫过程,具体可分为3种类型:第一类是太平洋纬向海表热力差异的遥强迫作用,主要发生在冬末春初,热带太平洋的纬向热力差异通过调节Walker环流,在印度洋激发出一个异常的次级环流,对应的大气低层形成纬向风异常;第二类是东-西印度洋海表热力差异的局地强迫作用导致的局地环流,使赤道印度洋上空形成纬向风异常,此过程在春末夏初较为显著;第三类是太平洋-印度洋热力差协同作用的结果,使赤道印度洋盛行异常的纬向风,此过程在秋季起主导作用。     

ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.     

南大洋太平洋扇区中尺度涡旋的统计特性及其变化

中尺度涡旋在南大洋海洋动力学中具有重要地位,其对气候变化的响应表现也引起了海洋学家与气候学家的广泛关注。本文利用涡动动能与涡旋自动探测技术两种方法对南大洋太平洋扇区的涡旋特性及其变化进行了分析。与前人结果相一致的是,高值的涡动动能主要集中在南极极锋海区,并且自西向东逐渐减弱。在过去的20年里,涡动动能在太平洋扇区的显著增强也集中在中西部海域,这里也是南极绕极流斜压性较强的海域。涡旋统计特性揭示了涡动动能的空间分布及其年际变化主要归因于涡旋振幅与旋转速度,而并非涡旋个数或者涡旋半径。这些结果进一步确认了对应于南半球环状模正位相的绕极西风异常改变了南大洋的涡旋特性,从而表现出涡旋活跃性增强。     

Air-sea interactions associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in South China Sea summer monsoon and their effects on El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) behaves with prominent climate variability from the intraseasonal to interdecadal time scales. On the interannual time scale, the biennial variability (so-called tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO) is as important as the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period. Some observed data sets, including reanalysis data, are used to explore the associated air-sea interactive physical processes and how the SCSSM TBO affects the ENSO. The results show that the shearing vorticity induced by the north Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone both contribute to the TBO in the SCSSM. The results also indicate that the ENSO has a weak effect on the SCSSM TBO, whereas the latter affects the ENSO to some extent.     

An analysis of regional climate model performance over the tropical Americas. Part I: simulating seasonal variability of precipitation associated with ENSO forcing

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) constitute a major source of predictability in the tropics. We evaluate the ability of a regional climate model (the Rossby Centre Atmospheric Model; RCA) to downscale SST and large-scale atmospheric anomalies associated with ENSO. RCA is configured over the tropical east Pacific and tropical Americas and runs for the period 1979–2005, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) lateral and surface boundary conditions. We study the ability of RCA to represent regional patterns of precipitation, with respect to both the climatology and interannual variability associated with ENSO. The latter is achieved by grouping the simulations into El Niño and La Niña composites and studying the delayed response of precipitation to SST forcing in four regions of Central and South America.
In this paper, we concentrate on seasonal mean timescales. We find that RCA accurately simulates the main features of the precipitation climatology over the four regions and also reproduces the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO forcing. Furthermore, the model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different ENSO events. The model exhibits a wet bias over the northern Amazon and slightly overestimates the magnitude of ENSO anomalies over Central America.     

一个简单的印-太海气耦合模式

本文基于一层半海洋模式和SVD(Singular Value Decomposition)大气模式构建了一个简单的海气耦合模式, 引入热通量的作用, 分析ENSO影响热带印度洋地区的动力学和热力学耦合过程。其中, 使用统计大气模式, 由给定的SST(Sea Surface Temperature)异常得到风应力异常, 进而驱动海洋环流反馈给SST, 完成海气的动力耦合; 使用块体经验公式由SST异常和风场异常计算热通量异常, 直接作用于SST, 实现海气的热力学耦合。动力耦合实验揭示, 太平洋第一EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Functions) 模态与观测基本吻合。并且模拟Ni?o 3指数存在两年左右的谱峰周期。这说明, 海气动力学耦合是ENSO生成的主要因素。热力耦合的加入是为了考察ENSO影响热带印度洋的热力学效应。同时考虑动力和热力耦合的实验结果表明, 热带太平洋暖异常中心更加接近观测值, 热带印度洋出现海盆尺度海温正异常。这意味着热带太平洋的ENSO信号通过海气界面的热量交换实现对热带印度洋地区的遥强迫, 导致印度洋海盆尺度增暖。     

Observed subsurface signature of Southern Ocean sea level rise

Satellite altimetry data show a strong increase in sea level in various parts of the Southern Ocean over the 1990s. In this paper, we examine the causes of the observed sea level rise in the region south of Australia, using 13 years of repeat hydrographic data from the WOCE SR3 sections, and the SURVOSTRAL XBT and surface salinity data. The hydrographic data show a poleward shift in the position of the Subtropical and the Subantarctic Fronts over the period. In the Antarctic Zone, the Antarctic Surface Water has become warmer and fresher, and the Winter Water tongue has become warmer, fresher, thinner and shallower. Increased freshening south of the Polar Front is linked to increased precipitation over the 1990s. Temperature changes over the upper 500 m account for only part of the altimetric sea level rise. The CTD sections show that the deeper layers are also warmer and slightly saltier and the observed sea level can be explained by steric expansion over the upper 2000 m. ENSO variability impacts on the northern part of the section, and a simple Sverdrup transport model shows how large-scale changes in the wind forcing, related to the Southern Annular Mode, may contribute to the deeper warming to the south.     

南海海面温度的年际模态及其与季风强迫的关系

通过对COADS和OISST海洋气象资料的分析，以南海的海面温度异常(SSTA)为指示因子，在研究年际尺度上的南海与大尺度ENSO关系的基础上，进一步探讨了季风强迫下Ekman抽吸对SSTA年际变化的贡献。研究发现，南海SSTA滞后5个月时与：Nifio 3的SSTA相关系数最大，且其年际变化依方差贡献大小，分别有42．7月、25．6月及36．6个月的周期，这3个年际模态基本上能够描述海面温度的年际变异，为南海在大尺度ENSO背景下存在区域响应提供了重要的证据；应用Krause—Turner混合层温度方程对南海异常暖事件的研究表明，除了经向风应力异常，Ekman抽吸也是影响SSTA年际变异的主要因素，在某些异常年份甚至是主导因素，为南海SSTA年际变化的研究提供了重要的补充。     

南大西洋副热带偶极子的年际变化

南大西洋副热带偶极子(South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole;SASD)为南大西洋海洋与大气相互作用的主要模态。它的空间型为海表面温度异常呈现东北-西南偶极子分布。当SASD指数大于1,为SASD正事件,小于-1,为负事件。根据1960-2016年HadISST(Hadley Center Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature)数据,本文鉴别出57年中共发生6次正事件和9次负事件。SASD存在显著的5~8年周期的年际变化特征。本文进一步利用1992-2016年ECCO2(Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,PhaseⅡ)模式数据,根据温度倾向方程分别诊断了SASD西南极和东北极的混合层温度变化。诊断结果表明,SASD的年际变化主要来自于表面热力强迫项的年际变化。考虑到表面热力强迫项主要由短波辐射项控制,SASD的年际变化最终来源于短波辐射项的年际变化。     

南海海温异常与ENSO的相关性

使用1958－1987COADS资料，应用复经验正交函数（CEOF）分析方法，分析南海海表面温度场（SST）和风场（u及v）。结果发现，南海海温异常基本独立于西太平洋，同时存在类似于ENSO事件的年际变化，ENSO发生前冬季南海有异常降温过程，之后有增暖事件发生。分析还表明，南海SST异常主要取决于经向风场的异常强迫。南海SST与ENSO事件的相关性实质上反映了季风异常对ENSO循环的影响。