基于PSR框架模型的南四湖健康评价

根据＂压力-状态-响应＂（PSR）框架模型,对南四湖健康状态进行评价。选取南四湖流域人口密度、工农业供水需求、富营养化程度、南四湖生物多样性指数、环保投资指数等能够充分反映南四湖压力、状态和响应的指标构建评价指标体系;通过专家经验赋值法对各评价指标进行权重确定,并对指标进行标准化赋值;提出了南四湖健康评价模型并且得出南四湖的健康综合指数;根据健康综合指数,确定南四湖健康状况。研究结果表明,南四湖健康评价指数为0.4051,南四湖健康处于＂亚健康＂状态。     

基于PSR-熵权综合健康指数法的城市湖泊生态系统健康评价

本文结合城市湖泊生态系统的特点,利用OECD(联合国经济合作开发署)建立的压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架模型建立指标体系,将信息熵(IE)理论引入指标权重的确定,建立了城市湖泊生态系统健康评价模型,选用综合健康指数法(CHIM)进行城市湖泊生态系统健康评价,并应用山东省聊城市东昌湖的实测资料,对其生态系统健康状况进行了评价,评价结果与实际情况基本相符.     

基于DPSIR模型的沂河水资源可持续利用评价

基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”（DPSIR）系统模型,分别从水资源、经济社会和生态环境等方面选取22个评价指标,建立了沂河水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,运用基于层次分析法和熵值法的综合权重法确定各指标权重,采用综合指数法进行水资源可持续利用评价。研究表明：沂河水资源可持续利用综合评价值介于0.478～0.633,可持续利用水平为基本可持续,准则层以影响评价值最高,其次是状态、压力、驱动力和响应。通过实际调研可得,评价结果与流域实际情况基本相符。近年来,沂河水资源可持续利用水平逐渐提高,但未来仍需通过加大政府水利投入、增强人民环境保护观念等措施,提高沂河水资源可持续利用水平。     

基于结构方程模型的煤矿区生态安全评价指标体系研究

为了找出对煤矿区生态安全影响较大的因素,以压力-状态-响应模型作为框架,选取17个指标构建了初步的指标体系,然后利用结构方程模型和湖北赤壁两个煤矿的调研数据,计算出指标的权重并评估出模型整体拟合性,确定最终的评价指标体系。结果表明,各指标的权重中,对生态安全压力、生态安全状态和生态安全响应影响最大的因素分别是工业三废负荷压力、水体(源)污染和人均工业总产值,且模型整体拟合性良好。     

鄂北水资源配置工程受水区供水安全评价

基于"驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应"模型构建了包含自然条件、生活用水压力等11个要素及19个指标的供水安全评价指标体系,以鄂北水资源利用情况与供水特征为基础,运用层次分析法-熵权法耦合得出指标权重,并采用模糊综合评价法、TOPSIS法和灰色关联分析法对研究区供水安全程度进行评价.研究结果表明2015年、2019年和2...     

岩溶地区旅游生态安全评价及趋势分析——以广西为例

岩溶地区拥有丰富的旅游资源,但是生态环境相对脆弱,根据岩溶地区旅游发展的特点,以"压力-状态-响应"（PSR）模型为基础,同时从生态安全的概念出发,涵盖生态风险、生态健康和生态足迹指标,建立了岩溶地区旅游生态安全评价指标体系。调整的主要指标包括:土地压力指标、旅游经济密度、年平均气温和年平均降雨量指标、旅游空间密度、游客密度指数、旅游收入指标等。采用综合指数法和熵权法,分别引入2012年和2007年两年的数据,对广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全的现状、发展趋势及变化趋势的内在原因进行了分析。实证结果表明:（1）从现状评价看,2007、2012年广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全水平总体较低,处于安全级别的城市主要位于广西中部区域,其他城市则处于不安全级别;（2）从影响指标看,经济状态和旅游生态状态对当地的旅游生态安全影响较大;（3）从变化趋势看,广西岩溶地区旅游生态安全状态逐渐好转,广西中部地区保持安全状态,紧邻广西中部地区的地市处于持续危险区域,但综合指数呈上升趋势;梧州和贵港两个位于广西东部的城市同样处于持续危险区域,但是旅游生态安全综合指数呈小幅下降趋势;（4）旅游生态安全状态和趋势与岩溶分布没有显著的相关关系。      

晋祠泉域岩溶水生态系统健康评价

文章尝试性地提出岩溶水生态系统的概念,从系统的特征、功能和面临的威胁三方面论述了其内涵,基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型,综合考虑自然因素和人类活动叠加影响,构建了岩溶水生态系统健康评价指标体系;用层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,用综合评价法确定岩溶水生态系统所处健康状态,并将其分为很健康、健康、亚健康、不健康和病态五级。并以晋祠泉域为例,采用ArcGIS空间分析技术确定岩溶水生态系统健康评价等级。结果表明:泉域煤矿开采区处于不健康状态,东部平原区和中部径流区均处于亚健康状态,碳酸盐岩裸露区和汾河周边区域处于健康状态,分别占晋祠泉域总面积的29%、31%和40%。     

物元理论在危岩滑坡灾害社会经济易损性评价中的应用

文章分析了物元概念的可拓性。以万州为例,应用物元理论分析说明危岩、滑坡灾害的社会经济易损性具有发散性、可扩性、相关性和共扼性特点。进行区域易损性评价的基本目标是获取各种易损性参数,为滑坡灾害破坏损失评价提供基本资料。根据万州50a来的灾害统计资料,选取了灾害密度、灾害频数、经济(GDP)损失模数、生命损失模数等易损性评价指标,对该区的脆弱性和易损强度进行了综合评估,计算出其易损度。根据这些数据．提出用物元可拓集理论构造各易损程度指标等级标准的物元矩阵和待识别对象与各指标的关联度,根据关联度大小判断综合易损度(CVD)与计算结果相符合。最后提出减灾工作应在传统理论研究的基础上,应用物元理论采用可拓学方法,提出区域易损性分析、评估的简单思路,以期为滑坡区域防灾、减灾规划提供新的理论和方法依据。     

流域生态系统健康评价研究进展

流域生态系统评价体系是评价研究流域是否健康的基本依据,其评价结果为流域生态系统保护措施和政策制定提供基础。在介绍流域生态系统健康状态的前提下,总结了国内外流域生态系统评价理论和评价指标的发展历史及现状,整合出目前较为流行的评价体系,并着重阐述了五类实用模型,分别为:水基系统评价模型、改进物元分析、生物完整性指数法、压力-状态-响应模型(PSR)及景观格局分析法。针对不同的流域环境选择合适的评价体系是准确评价流域生态系统健康状况的根本。总结得到综合指标评价体系,主要包括物理、生物、社会环境、生态功能及社会功能等五种指标,在明确指标后按评价流程对流域进行系统评价。对现存的问题进行了分析与展望。     

长江经济带湿地生态系统健康评价与预测

对长江经济带湿地生态系统的健康状况进行综合评价并预测分析,为该湿地可持续发展提供依据。以“压力-状态-响应”（PSR）为框架,选取12个指标构建评价体系;采用层次分析法（AHP）计算各项指标的权重,同时将湿地健康状况划分为“健康、亚健康、脆弱、疾病、恶劣”五项;通过综合评价指数（CEI）对其健康进行分析,并利用整合移动平均自回归（ARIMA）模型预测2025年湿地健康状况。结果表明：长江经济带湿地健康综合评价指数在2005—2017年从0.475 5增长到0.613 7,健康等级从“脆弱”转变为“亚健康”,到2025年综合评价指数预计超过0.700 0,继续保持“亚健康”状态。在压力、状态、响应三项准则层中,压力子系统有相对风险,状态和响应指标应继续保持湿地生态系统的健康状态;在12个评价指标中,人口自然增长率、湿地面积变化率及自然保护区数、第三产业所占比重和湿地管理水平、生态环境恢复是影响长江经济带湿地生态系统健康状况的最主要因素。     

Rapid evaluation of an indicator of seismic vulnerability in small urban nuclei

The expected fraction of buildings lost in the event of an earthquake of a given intensity can be considered as a useful indicator of the seismic vulnerability of a small urban nucleus and can be used for the evaluation of seismic risk on a regional scale. This work describes a procedure for quantifying this indicator through data obtained from the buildings which constitute the nucleus during rapid on-site surveys. The knowledge on which the procedure is based is that given by the observed vulnerability of old Italian centres.     

基于熵权的模糊综合评价法在公路洪灾风险评价中的应用

公路洪灾是一个多因素耦合的复杂系统,本文针对公路洪灾风险的复杂性、模糊性及不确定性,构造了基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型,通过熵权使权重由主观判断转为由各指标数据之间的关系来确定,从危险性和易损性两方面选取24个评价因子,定量地对重庆境内渝黔高速公路进行洪灾风险评价。评价结果表明,熵权模糊综合评价法是科学可行的,为公路洪灾风险趋势预测以及风险等级划分提供了良好的分析方法,在实践中具有一定的应用价值。     

Earthquake risk assessment in urban fabrics based on physical,socioeconomic and response capacity parameters (a case study: Tehran city)

Determination of the priorities for improvement of vulnerable urban fabrics based on a comprehensive assessment is among the main desires of local governments in earthquake-prone countries like Iran. However, in most countries, the comprehensive and absolute estimation of seismic risk is not possible due to shortages of the required data. In this paper, a new method is proposed for estimation of the risk through combination of hazard, vulnerability and response capacity indicators. Also, new evaluation methods based on relative scheme are presented for simple quantification of indicators in urban areas suffering from limited or insufficient database. For this purpose, important vulnerability parameters at urban areas are classified into physical, human life and socioeconomic groups. New hazard factors are also defined to evaluate the risk through combination of each vulnerability indicator and its directly related hazard factor. In addition, the capacity of response activities is accounted for in the model using planning, resource, accessibility and evacuation capacity indicators. The post-earthquake reduction of response capacity is also measured by means of reduction factors. Then, total relative seismic risk index is defined and calculated at each urban division (or zone) by weighted combination of the mentioned risk and response capacity indicators. This index represents the state of the risk in each zone in comparison with the others. The proposed method is applied to assess the earthquake risk at 22 municipal districts of Tehran. The results show that physical, human life and overall risk indices in district 15 of the city are considerably greater than the others. Meanwhile, in socioeconomic aspects, district 6 has the highest risk. Also, the analysis of the results demonstrates the major contribution of the response capacity term to determine the mitigation priorities. Finally, the results are compared with JICA (2000), using the same data, to show the efficiency of the proposed model. It is shown that the introduced method can significantly improve the results of the risk estimation and mitigation priorities.     

Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model

The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.

     

城市脆弱性的动态演变与模拟预测

针对目前对我国西部城市的城市脆弱性综合研究比较缺乏的现状,以乌鲁木齐市为主要研究对象,筛选出50个具体评价指标,从资源、生态、社会和经济等四个方面构建了城市脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用综合指数分析法,对乌鲁木齐市2006—2016年的城市脆弱性进行了综合评价。结果表明：2006—2016年乌鲁木齐市城市综合脆弱性指数处于下降状态;生态脆弱性和经济脆弱性呈现出不同程度的下降趋势,资源脆弱性整体上较为平稳,但社会脆弱性逐渐增长,尤其是在2014—2016年的增长趋势更加明显。此外,构建了三套预测模型,并从中优选出精度最高的模型对乌鲁木齐市城市脆弱性进行了预测。得出2016—2019年乌鲁木齐市的城市脆弱性会呈现上升,2019年后趋于下降。最后,有针对性地提出了乌鲁木齐市在未来城市发展中减少城市脆弱性需要注意和改善的问题。相关内容可为乌鲁木齐市城市脆弱性的调控决策提供科学依据,为我国其他中西部城市的城市脆弱性研究提供参考。     

新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义.     

辽宁省中南部分城市地下水脆弱性评价

通过对辽中南地区的地质与水文地质条件特征、含水层的富水性、开采利用地下水现状等资料的调查和了解,利用地下水脆弱性的DRASTIC评价模型和AHP模糊评价模型,对地下水固有脆弱性的七个因素指标进行了赋值、计算。最终得出了辽宁省中南部分城市地下水脆弱性分区分为强脆弱区、较强脆弱区、中等脆弱区、弱脆弱区。     

水力压裂对地下水影响的深部脆弱性评价

为评价区块尺度页岩气开采过程中深部污染物对上部含水层的污染风险,基于“源-途径-驱动力-受体”概念模型,采用层次分析法构建了页岩气开采对地下水影响的深部脆弱性评价指标体系.利用该体系对贵州省某页岩气开采区块进行了评价,结果表明:评价区地下水深部脆弱性以低和较低为主,两者面积占研究区总面积的69.15%,主要分布于研究区西北部、中部及东南部,中间层厚度是影响评价结果的主要指标.该评价体系能够评估页岩气开采区地下水深部脆弱性,丰富了现有地下水脆弱性评价体系,可为区块内页岩气井的布设选址及地下水环境保护提供技术支撑.      

Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing,China

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.

     

灌区运行状况综合评价的方法研究

研究了使用模糊综合评价和灰色系统评价对灌区的运行状况进行综合评价的方法。在确定权重时,运用了博弈论方法将主观赋权法(层次分析法)和客观赋权法(熵值法)进行集化、融合,使得到的综合权重与各单一权重向量之间的偏差最小,该法消除了单一权重法的片面性,操作简便,便于实际应用。以山东省部分灌区为例,运用上述方法对其进行综合排序,结果表明,其排序结果基本一致,说明将这两种方法运用到灌区综合评价中是切实可行的。