Towards rational harvesting of the South African anchovy considering survey imprecision and recruitment variability

Alternative harvesting schemes for the South African anchovy resource are considered. For this preliminary study, strategies in which quotas are simply related to the pre-catch survey estimates of spawning biomass and recruitment are investigated, using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. The schemes evaluated are the strategies of a constant catch, a constant proportion of the recruitment estimate, and a variant on constant escapement. The relationship between modal recruitment and spawning biomass is assumed known, and the values of parameters such as natural mortality and mass-at-age are initially taken to be exact. True recruitment is assumed log-normally distributed about its modal value. The annual survey estimates of recruitment and spawning biomass are generated with typical measurement errors included. The results show the cost (expressed as a loss of potential annual yield) of imperfect survey information, natural recruitment variability, and constraints on year-to-year catch variability. The analysis is extended to integrate the outcome of specific harvesting strategies over the current estimates of the probability distributions for the model parameters, assuming that these are not updated as harvesting is continued. The final results suggest that the mean annual yield of the South African anchovy resource could be increased by about 40 per cent through use of a more flexible harvesting strategy than is the current practice, without at the same time increasing the risk of collapse.     

Top predators in the Benguela ecosystem — implications of their trophic position

Many top predators in the Benguela ecosystem feed on prey species targeted by commercial fisheries. Their roles as indicators of the state of exploited prey resources, as competitors with commercial fisheries for resources, and as susceptible to impact from commercial fishing on those resources are briefly considered. Trends in the occurrence of anchovy Engraulis capensis and pilchard Sardinops ocellatus in the diet of Cape gannets Morus capensis off South Africa's west coast are related significantly to survey estimates of the abundance of these fish species, and they provide useful confirmation of those estimates. In the 1980s, anchovy decreased in the diet of Cape gannets, but pilchard increased. In both the northern and southern portions of the Benguela system, groundfish were thought to eat most (66–73%) of the total quantity of cephalopods and vertebrates consumed by predators and man in the 1980s. South African fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus, predatory pelagic fish and man removed roughly equal amounts, with squids, seabirds and cetaceans having a smaller impact. In the 1980s, man and seals removed about two million tons live mass more than in 1930. Indices of the rate of natural mortality of anchovy and pilchard attributable to Cape gannets are not related to biomass of the prey species. That for anchovy was high in 1989 when a poor anchovy year-class was formed. Decreased abundance of anchovy led to poor breeding by Cape cormorants Phalacrocorax capensis in 1989 and 1990. A model linking the Cape cormorant population with anchovy is used to explore the impact of possible exploitation strategies for anchovy on Cape cormorants.     

The potential use of predictions of recruitment success in the management of the South African anchovy resource

In the existing management procedure for the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis resource, an initial Total Allowable Catch (TAC) is set at the start of the fishing season in January, before the year's recruitment of 0-year-old fish, an important component of the catch, is known. Recruitment is therefore assumed to be equal to the observed median. This TAC may be revised in May or June, after the actual recruitment has been estimated. This procedure incorporates a risk that, if recruitment is below the median, the stock could be adversely depleted before the mid-year recruitment survey. A simulation approach is used in this paper to assess the possible benefits, in terms of average annual catch and interannual fluctuations in catch, of three different methods of predicting recruitment earlier in the season, if such methods were available. The results show that the average annual catch could be increased theoretically by up to 48 per cent if a very precise prediction (CV = 0,1) could be made at the start of the fishing season. In practice, more modest improvements of 21 per cent by prerecruit surveys undertaken in March each year, or 16 per cent by means of a two-class ordinal prediction with 70 per cent success, may be attainable. However, these improvements would result in increased interannual fluctuations in catch, a situation which may be detrimental to the fishing industry.     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.     

Forecasting in South African pelagic fisheries management: the use of expert and decision support systems

Understanding long-term variability of pelagic fish populations is important in developing forecasting strategies for fisheries management and planning. However, many current fisheries models have only short-term datasets available, whereas those of suitable duration often lack reliability. As resources are placed under increasing pressure, all available information should be used to assist management. Two simple rule-based deterministic modelling approaches are described, which use semi-quantitative and qualitative rules to relate recruitment success of South African anchovy Engraulis capensis to physical and biological indices. The first model relates recruitment success to indices of wind and sea surface temperature by way of a rule-based decision support system. In the second model, significant environmental and biological factors were identified and related to anchovy recruitment by way of an expert system approach. These two approaches are evaluated and compared. It is suggested that these types of models, when satisfactorily validated, have great potential in supporting the future management of the South African anchovy fishery in the dynamic environment of the Benguela Current.     

Climate variability and pelagic fisheries in northern Chile

A time series analysis of long-term climate variability in northern Chile (18°21′–24°00′S) shows anomalies associated with the El Niño events and the longer warm period observed since 1976, followed by a cooling trend since mid 1980s. The succession of pelagic fisheries, anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax), occurring in this fishing zone was analyzed taking into account the landings, the CPUE abundance index, the fishing effort, and the environmental variables. The anchovy production model is a negative linear function of fishing effort and turbulence. For sardine, the production model is a negative linear function of fishing effort and a quadratic function of the sea surface temperature.An analysis of the relationship between recruitment, adult biomass and the environment shows that the annual recruitment of anchovy increases with turbulence intensity until wind speed reaches a value of 5.46 m s⁻¹, decreasing for higher values. For sardine, the recruitment increases with turbulence intensity until 5.63 m s⁻¹, stabilizing thereafter.It is deduced that the climatic variations associated to the El Niño events affect the abundance of coastal pelagic fishes, without forgetting the most likely effects upon its distribution and the fishing effort. However, it is the long-term variability that mainly affects the fishing activity.     

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.     

Size matters: Short term loss and long term gain in a size-selective fishery

The maximum sustainable yield concept (MSY) and the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) have been recently adopted by the European Commission with the objective to achieve, over the long term, the highest possible sustainable yield from a given exploited stock. In this context, a fishing mortality MSY reference level (i.e., F_MSY) should be defined, taking into account recruitment, growth and natural mortality under current or recent ecosystem conditions. Thus, F_MSY is used as a generic term for a robust estimate of a fishing mortality level that is associated with high sustainable yield in the long term, assuming the current harvesting regime in terms of size selectivity. In this study, using the Eastern Baltic cod as an example, we challenge this rather simplified view showing that by using a different harvest selectivity and thus changing the size range of harvested cod, it is possible to largely increase the yield and revenue from the fishery compared to the fishing mortality stipulated in the management plan (i.e., F_MSY), while assuring sustainable high yield in the long term. Thus, implementing the MSY concept in terms of fishing mortality but neglecting selective harvesting effects will not achieve high long term sustainable yield for Eastern Baltic cod. The combination of size selective harvesting and economic reasoning may offer an important tool for the management of marine resources by potentially providing a common currency for the different stakeholders and offer guidance to achieve long term sustainability and human well-being. This would represent the natural step forward in the implementation of EAFM and MSY concepts.     

Population dynamics of the Brown mussel Perna perna at a Rocky beach near Cape Coast,Ghana

The brown mussel, Perna perna, is an ecologically important species which has a great potential for aquaculture in Ghana. Though it is harvested from the wild for consumption locally, there is no information on its population parameters to guide its management and subsequent culturing. The species inhabiting Iture rocky beach near Cape Coast (Ghana) was therefore investigated to elucidate its growth and other population parameters. Specimens had shell length ranging from 5.00 to 78.0 mm, a modal shell length class of 35.0–39.9 mm, and exhibited negative allometric growth. The asymptotic length (L∞), growth coefficient (K), and growth performance index (Φ') were 80.10 mm, 0.49 per year, and 3.49, respectively. The recruitment pattern showed that P. perna has year-round recruitment with a single peak between April and July. Total mortality (Z) was estimated at 2.79 per year, while natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F) were 0.87 and 1.92 per year, respectively. The calculated exploitation level of the population (E = 0.69) suggests possible overfishing of the mussels at Iture rocky beach. These results could serve as baseline information for management of the mussel population in Ghana.     

Revised estimates of abundance of South African sardine and anchovy from acoustic surveys adjusting for echosounder saturation in earlier surveys and attenuation effects for sardine

Hydro-acoustic surveys have been used to provide annual estimates of May recruitment and November spawner biomass of the South African sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus resources since 1984. These time-series of abundance estimates form the backbone of the assessment of these resources, and consequently the management of the South African sardine and anchovy is critically dependent on them. Upgrades to survey equipment over time have resulted in recent surveys providing more accurate estimates of abundance, yet in order to maintain comparability across the full time-series, estimates of biomass mimicking the old equipment were used for a number of years. In this paper we develop a method to revise the earlier part of the time-series to correct for receiver saturation in the older generation SIMRAD EK400 and EKS-38 echo sounders and to account for attenuation in dense sardine schools. This is applied to provide a revised time-series of biomass estimates for the South African sardine and anchovy resources with associated variance–covariance matrices. Furthermore, the time-series presented here are based on updated acoustic target strength estimates, making this the most reliable time-series currently available for both resources.     

人工增殖蓝点马鲛作为利用鳀鱼资源另一途径的分析

一、前言 本文提出一个雏议,旨在引起有关方面对开发利用鳀鱼Engraulis japonicus Temminck & Schegel资源的另一途径问题进行讨论,以期取得对这个问题的充分认识和作出可行性判断。 我国近海和外海拥有的鳀鱼资源非常丰富。根据著者等的调查,1983年夏季在渤海上层的鱼类生物量中,鳀鱼占四分之三(6月)和三分之一(7月)的高比例。朱德山、王为祥报道的调查结果表明,1984年11月—1985年4月,黄东海外海鳀鱼资源量达200万     

The sensitivity of long-term yield targets to changes in fishery age-selectivity

Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been adopted as the primary management goal by several inter-government fishery organisations, and in the United States it forms the cornerstone of federal fishery management policy. MSY became a strategic goal for the management of Europe's fisheries following the resolution of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002 to restore or maintain fish stocks to MSY levels by 2015. Calculation of MSY requires information on the rate at which biomass increases through growth and reproduction and the rate at which it decreases through natural mortality and fishing. Population-selection, which measures the age-specific rates of fishing mortality, is a key component for the calculation of yield as a function of fishing mortality and MSY, yet selection rarely features in either management advice or sensitivity analyses. Effective management of selection can potentially lead to increases in long-term yield, but before taking action managers need to understand what long-term increases are possible. Using a hypothetical stock, equilibrium yield curves were calculated for three scenarios in which the shape of the population-selection curve varied. The results illustrate the potential extent of variation in MSY and the corresponding fishing mortality required to achieve it (F_MSY) that may result solely due to changes in population selectivity. They show that relatively subtle changes in selection can produce substantial differences in MSY and F_MSY. The results are discussed with specific reference to the development of long-term management targets and the mechanisms by which managers might try to influence population-selection.     

The role of acoustic surveys in the assessment of pelagic fish resources on the South African continental shelf

Acoustic data on the abundance and distribution of anchovy Engraulis capensis, pilchard Sardinops ocellatus and round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi on the South African continental shelf have been collected from 21 echo-integrator surveys between 1984 and 1991. Most effort has been concentrated on estimating adult biomass of anchovy and pilchard in November (spring) and anchovy recruitment in autumn. Distribution maps from all surveys are presented and the biomass estimates considered most reliable documented. A series of distribution maps tracing movements of three anchovy year-classes over a four-year period is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the surveys in migration studies. The major findings of the survey programme have been that anchovy are generally considerably more abundant and widespread than was thought to be the case prior to the surveys, that the pilchard resource has recovered substantially in recent years, and that the round herring resource, about which little was known prior to the surveys, is probably of the same order of magnitude as the anchovy resource and is probably underexploited. The anchovy and pilchard resources are currently managed through procedures based largely on the acoustic estimates of biomass and their estimated precision. The role of these estimates in the management procedures is discussed in some detail.     

Can anchovy age structure be estimated from length distribution data collected during surveys?

Historically, a time-series of proportions-at-age 1 from annual November hydro-acoustic surveys has been used to inform the assessment of, and in particular the choice of appropriate values for juvenile and adult natural mortality for, the South African anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus. However, information from direct ageing is limited and almost two decades old. A new method is developed to estimate the annual proportions of anchovy at age 1 directly from the population length distributions estimated from samples taken during the November surveys. This method involves modelling the annual length distributions of age 1 and age 2+ anchovy. The analysis provides a new time-series of proportions-at-age 1, together with associated standard errors, for input into assessments of the resource. The results also caution against the danger of scientists reading more information into data than is really there.     

Data-moderate assessments of Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus and west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis in Namibian waters

There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/F_MSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/B_MSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/F_MSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.     

Cheating about the cod

The Northeast Arctic cod is managed by a total quota shared evenly between Norway and Russia. It appears that Russia has been overfishing its quota by substantial amounts for a number of years, due to insufficient monitoring of fishing vessels. This paper considers what would be the best reply by Norway to given levels of Russian overfishing. It is found that in most cases the best Norwegian reply would be also to overfish its quota. An aggregate biomass model with stochastic growth and recruitment is used to analyze this question, with parameters estimated from 1946 to 2005 data. Recruitment is serially correlated but apparently independent of the spawning stock. A model using the estimated serial correlation in recruitment and a random disturbance is capable of reproducing recruitment patterns similar to the irregular pattern observed since 1946.     

Analysing environmental and fishing effects on a short-lived species stock: the dynamics of the octopus Octopus vulgaris population in Senegalese waters

Short-lived species are extremely dependent on the seasonal and interannual variability of environmental conditions, and determining their stock status is often difficult. This study investigates the effects of environmental variability and fishing pressure on the stock of octopus Octopus vulgaris in Senegalese waters over a 10-year period from 1996 to 2005. Monthly catches-at-age were estimated based on catch-at-weight data and a polymodal decomposition constrained by a given growth curve. Octopus recruitments and fishing mortalities were then estimated using a catch-at-age analysis performed on a monthly basis. Yield and biomass per recruit were simulated using a Thompson and Bell model and used to generate a diagnostic of the fishery's impacts. Results indicate that the high interannual and seasonal variability of the octopus stock biomass is linked to the spring recruitment event, the annual intensity of which was significantly correlated with the coastal upwelling index and sea surface temperature. Yield per recruit varied seasonally but remained almost unchanged from one year to the next. Even when catches vary strongly according to recruitment, the octopus stock appears to be consistently fully exploited, or slightly overexploited in some years. In this context of environmental variability, usual indicators such as the maximum yield per recruit, and the related fishing mortality and spawning potential ratio, remain useful for fisheries management purposes.     

Acoustic study on the abundance and distribution of anchovy spawners and recruits in South African waters

Direct surveys of Cape anchovy Engraulis capensis spawner and recruit biomass in South African coastal waters were made with a 38-kHz calibrated echo-sounder and custom-built digital echo-integrator. The spawning surveys were conducted each November between 1983 and 1985, predominantly on the Agulhas Bank. Recruit surveys were conducted in autumn 1985 and 1986, mainly on the West Coast. The spawning fish were widely distributed across the continental shelf, whereas recruit concentrations were highest close inshore. Employing a target strength per kilogramme expression for herring Clupea harengus, the spawning biomass in 1984 was estimated at 1,06 million tons and that in 1985 at 0,98 million tons. Similarly, recruit biomass in May/June 1985 and June 1986 was estimated at 310 and 466 thousand tons respectively. From an analysis of error in the latter two estimates, it was considered approximately 80 per cent certain that the recruitment in 1986 was greater than in 1985. The estimates of spawning biomass are 3–4 times higher than earlier estimates made by Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) of commercial catch data, and suggest that the stock is less seriously threatened by present catch levels than was indicated by VPA. It is concluded from the distribution and age structure of the spawning population that the VPA estimates are invalid because of the failure of commercial vessels to sample the major part of the adult population.     

High mortality and poor growth of green mussels, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Perna viridis</Emphasis>, in high chlorophyll-<Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> environment

The current study was carried out from May 2014 to April 2015 to estimate the stock status of P. viridis in Marudu Bay. The gonad development was monitored by histological examination, while the population parameters including asymptotic length (L_∞), growth coefficient (K), mortality rate (Z, F and M), exploitation level (E) and recruitment of P. viridis were estimated using the lengthfrequency data. Results of the current study demonstrated that P. viridis in Marudu Bay spawned throughout the year with two major peaks, one in April to May and another one in October to December. The recruitment pattern was continuous with the peak in May to June 2014, which corresponded to the first spawning peak in April. However, no significant recruitment was observed from the second spawning peak due to the difference in spawning timing between male and female populations. The estimated asymptotic length (L_∞), growth coefficient (K), total mortality (Z), natural mortality (M), fishing mortality (F) and growth performance (ф) of P. viridis in Marudu Bay were estimate to be 117 mm, 0.97 yr^-1, 4.39 yr^-1, 1.23 yr^-1, 3.16 yr^-1 and 4.123, respectively. The exponent b of the lengthweight relationship was 2.4 and exploitation level (E) was 0.72. The high mortality, low condition indices and negative allometric of P. viridis in Marudu Bay is caused by a lack of suitable food in the surrounding water.