El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

Guest Editorial to the Special Issue: Lessons Learned from post-2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Community Recovery

Identifying the spatial extent of volcanic ash clouds in the atmosphere and forecasting their direction and speed of movement has important implications for the safety of the aviation industry, community preparedness and disaster response at ground level. Nine regional Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres were established worldwide to detect, track and forecast the movement of volcanic ash clouds and provide advice to en route aircraft and other aviation assets potentially exposed to the hazards of volcanic ash. In the absence of timely ground observations, an ability to promptly detect the presence and distribution of volcanic ash generated by an eruption and predict the spatial and temporal dispersion of the resulting volcanic cloud is critical. This process relies greatly on the heavily manual task of monitoring remotely sensed satellite imagery and estimating the eruption source parameters (e.g. mass loading and plume height) needed to run dispersion models. An approach for automating the quick and efficient processing of next generation satellite imagery (big data) as it is generated, for the presence of volcanic clouds, without any constraint on the meteorological conditions, (i.e. obscuration by meteorological cloud) would be an asset to efforts in this space. An automated statistics and physics-based algorithm, the Automated Probabilistic Eruption Surveillance algorithm is presented here for auto-detecting volcanic clouds in satellite imagery and distinguishing them from meteorological cloud in near real time. Coupled with a gravity current model of early cloud growth, which uses the area of the volcanic cloud as the basis for mass measurements, the mass flux of particles into the volcanic cloud is estimated as a function of time, thus quantitatively characterising the evolution of the eruption, and allowing for rapid estimation of source parameters used in volcanic ash transport and dispersion models.

     

Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic clouds and the risk to global air traffic

Remote sensing instruments have been used to identify, track and in some cases quantify atmospheric constituents from space-borne platforms for nearly 30 years. These data have proven to be extremely useful for detecting hazardous ash and gas (principally SO₂) clouds emitted by volcanoes and which have the potential to intersect global air routes. The remoteness of volcanoes, the sporadic timings of eruptions and the ability of the upper atmosphere winds to quickly spread ash and gas, make satellite remote sensing a key tool for developing hazard warning systems. It is easily recognized how powerful these tools are for hazard detection and yet there has not been a single instrument designed specifically for this use. Instead, researchers have had to make use of instruments and data designed for other purposes. In this article the satellite instruments, algorithms and techniques used for ash and gas detection are described from a historical perspective with a view to elucidating their value and shortcomings. Volcanic clouds residing in the mid- to upper-troposphere (heights above 5 km) have the greatest potential of intersecting air routes and can be dispersed over many 1,000s of kilometres by the prevailing winds. Global air traffic vulnerability to the threat posed by volcanic clouds is then considered from the perspectives of satellite remote sensing, the upper troposphere mean wind circulation, and current and forecast air traffic density based on an up-to-date aircraft emissions inventory. It is concluded that aviation in the Asia Pacific region will be increasingly vulnerable to volcanic cloud encounters because of the large number of active volcanoes in the region and the increasing growth rate of air traffic in that region. It is also noted that should high-speed civil transport (HSCT) aircraft become operational, there will be an increased risk to volcanic debris that is far from its source location. This vulnerability is highlighted using air traffic density maps based on NOx emissions and satellite SO₂ observations of the spread of volcanic clouds.     

Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view

The volcanic ash or ‘tephra’ cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research.     

Automated forecasting of volcanic ash dispersion utilizing Virtual Globes

There are over 100 active volcanoes in the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, most of which are located in sparsely populated areas. Dispersion models play an important role in forecasting the movement of volcanic ash clouds by complementing both remote sensing data and visual observations from the ground and aircraft. Puff is a three-dimensional dispersion model, primarily designed for forecasting volcanic ash dispersion, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory and other agencies. Since early 2007, the model is in an automated mode to predict the movement of airborne volcanic ash at multiple elevated alert status volcanoes worldwide to provide immediate information when an eruption occurs. Twelve of the predictions are within the NOPAC region, nine more within the southern section of the Pacific ring of fire and the others are in Europe and the Caribbean. Model forecasts are made for initial ash plumes ranging from 4 to 20 km altitude above sea level and for a 24-h forecast period. This information is made available via the Puff model website. Model results can be displayed in Virtual Globes for three-dimensional visualization. Here, we show operational Puff predictions in two and three-dimensions in Google Earth^®, both as iso-surfaces and particles, and study past eruptions to illustrate the capabilities that the Virtual Globes can provide. In addition, we show the opportunity that Google Maps^® provides in displaying Puff operational predictions via an application programming web interface and how radiosonde data (vertical soundings) and numerical weather prediction vertical profiles can be displayed in Virtual Globes for assisting in estimating ash cloud heights.     

Far-travelled ash in past and future eruptions: combining tephrochronology with volcanic studies

Studies of recent eruptions have improved our understanding of volcanic ash transport and deposition, but have also raised important questions about the behaviour of far-travelled (distal) volcanic ash. In particular, it is difficult to reconcile estimates of distal ash mass and transport distance determined from eyewitness accounts, mapped deposits, satellite-based observations and cryptotephra records. Here we address this problem using data from well-characterized eruptions that, collectively, include all four data types. Data from recent eruptions allow us to relate eyewitness accounts to mapped deposits on the ground and satellite-based observations of ash in the air; observations from an historical eruption link eyewitness accounts to cryptotephra deposits. Together these examples show that (i) 10–20% of the erupted mass is typically deposited outside the mapped limits; (ii) estimates of the ash mass transported in volcanic clouds cannot account for all of this unmapped ash; and (iii) ash fall observed at distances beyond mapped deposits can have measurable impacts, and can form cryptotephra deposits with high (>~1000 cm⁻³) shard counts. We conclude that cryptotephra data can be incorporated into volcanological studies of ash transport and deposition and provide important insight into both the behaviour and impacts of far-travelled volcanic ash particles.     

Worldwide environmental impacts from the eruption of Thera

The eruptions of Thera (Santorini) between 1628 and 1450 BC constituted a natural catastrophe unparalleled in all of history. The last major eruption in 1450 BC destroyed the entire Minoan Fleet at Crete at a time when the Minoans dominated the Mediterranean world. In addition, there had to be massive loss of life from ejecta gases, volcanic ash, bombs, and flows. The collapse of a majestic mountain into a caldera 15 km in diameter caused a giant ocean wave, a tsunami, that at its source was estimated in excess of 46 m high. The tsunami destroyed ships as far away as Crete (105 km) and killed thousands of people along the shorelines in the eastern Mediterranean area. At distant points in Asia Minor and Africa, there was darkness from ash fallout, lightning, and destructive earthquakes. Earthquake waves emanating from the epicenter near the ancient volcano were felt as far away as the Norwegian countries. These disturbances caused great physical damage in the eastern Mediterranean and along the rift valley system from Turkey to the south into central Africa. They caused major damage and fires in north Africa from Sinai to Alexandria, Egypt. Volcanic ash spread upward as a pillar of fire and clouds into the atmosphere and blocked out the sun for many days. The ash reached the stratosphere and moved around the world where the associated gases and fine particulate matter impacted the atmosphere, soils, and waters. Ground-hugging, billowing gases moved along the water surface and destroyed all life downwind, probably killing those who attempted to flee from Thera. The deadly gases probably reached the shores of north Africa. Climatic changes were the aftermath of the eruption and the atmospheric plume was to eventually affect the bristlecone pine of California; the bog oaks of Ireland, England, and Germany, and the grain crops of China. Historical eruptions at Krakatau, Tambora, Vesuvius, and, more currently, eruptions at Nevado del Ruiz, Pinatubo, and Mount Saint Helens, have done massive environmental damage but none can compare with the sociological, religious, economic, agricultural, and political impacts from Thera (Santorini). Major natural catastrophes that have occurred over historical time illustrate the force of nature and the impact on civilizations. Some examples of these are rains that flooded the Euphrates Valley during the time of Noah, and floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes in recent years, such as earthquakes in California and Hurricane Hugo on the east coast of the United States.     

Gigantic volcanic eruptions and climatic change in the early Eocene

23 layers of altered volcanic ash (bentonites) originating from the North Atlantic Igneous Province have been recorded in early Eocene deposits of the Austrian Alps, about 1,900 km away from the source area. The Austrian bentonites are distal equivalents of the “main ash-phase” in Denmark and the North Sea basin. We have calculated the total eruption volume of this series as 21,000 km³, which occurred in 600,000 years. The most powerful single eruption of this series took place 54.0 million years ago (Ma) and ejected ca. 1,200 km³ of ash material, which makes it one of the largest basaltic pyroclastic eruptions in geological history. The clustering of eruptions must have significantly affected the incoming solar radiation in the early Eocene by the continuous production of stratospheric dust and aerosol clouds. This hypothesis is corroborated by oxygen isotope values, which indicate a global decrease of sea surface temperatures between 1 and 2°C during this major phase of explosive volcanism.     

Dispersion modeling of volcanic ash clouds: North Pacific eruptions, the past 40?years: 1970–2010

Over the last 40 years, there have been numerous volcanic eruptions across the North Pacific (NOPAC) region that posed a potential threat to both local communities and transcontinental aircraft. The ability to detect these volcanic clouds using satellite remote sensing and predict their movement by dispersion modeling is a major component of hazard mitigation. The Puff volcanic ash transport and dispersion model, used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, was used to illustrate the impact that these volcanic ash clouds have made across the NOPAC and entire Polar region over the past 40 years. Nearly, 400 separate ash clouds were analyzed that were either reported or detected to have reached above 6 km (20,000 ft) above sea level, an average of one ash cloud every 1.25 months. Particular events showed that ash clouds can be tracked from Alaska to Greenland (Crater Peak, Mount Spurr in 1992), from Kamchatka to Alaska (Kluvicheskoi Volcano in 1994), from Alaska to California (Mount Cleveland Volcano in 2001) and from multiple events within 1 day (Mount Augustine Volcano in 2006). This study showed the vast number of events that have impacted this Polar region and how tracking them is useful for hazard mitigation.     

The Hianana Volcanics: Remnants of a Late Permian tuff ring and lava flow,Coombadjha Volcanic Complex,northeastern New South Wales

The Hianana Volcanics consist of bedded tuff and dacitic lava that form a locally mappable unit within the extensive, Late Permian silicic volcanic sequence of northeastern New South Wales. Principal components of the bedded tuff are crystal and volcanic lithic fragments ranging from coarse ash to lapilli, accompanied by variable amounts of fine ash matrix. Well denned plane parallel thin bedding is characteristic. Sandwave bed forms, including low‐angle cross‐beds and wavy beds, are confined to an area of 2–3 km² coinciding with the thickest sections (70 m) of bedded tuff. A high‐aspect ratio flow of porphyritic dacitic lava overlies the bedded tuff in the same area. The setting, lithofacies, extent and geometry of the bedded tuffs of the Hianana Volcanics are comparable with modern tuff rings which are composed of the deposits from base surges generated by explosive phreatomagmatic eruptions at primary volcanic vents. Many of these have also discharged lava late in their activity. Proximal parts of the Hianana tuff ring were buried by the porphyritic lava after the phreatomagmatic eruptions had ceased. In more distal sections, the bedded tuff is less than 10 m thick and dominantly comprises fine grained, plane parallel, very thin beds and laminae; these features suggest an origin by fallout from ash clouds that accompanied the phreatomagmatic eruptions. The distal ash was covered and preserved from erosion by a layer of welded ignimbrite, the source of which is unknown.     

Geochemical and isotopic insights into the assembly,evolution and disruption of a magmatic plumbing system before and after a cataclysmic caldera-collapse eruption at Ischia volcano (Italy)

New geochemical and isotopic data on volcanic rocks spanning the period ~75–50 ka BP on Ischia volcano, Italy, shed light on the evolution of the magmatic system before and after the catastrophic, caldera-forming Monte Epomeo Green Tuff (MEGT) eruption. Volcanic activity during this period was influenced by a large, composite and differentiating magmatic system, replenished several times with isotopically distinct magmas of deep provenance. Chemical and isotopic variations highlight that the pre-MEGT eruptions were fed by trachytic/phonolitic magmas from an isotopically zoned reservoir that were poorly enriched in radiogenic Sr and became progressively less radiogenic with time. Just prior to the MEGT eruption, the magmatic system was recharged by an isotopically distinct magma, relatively more enriched in radiogenic Sr with respect to the previously erupted magmas. This second magma initially fed several SubPlinian explosive eruptions and later supplied the climactic, phonolitic-to-trachytic MEGT eruption(s). Isotopic data, together with erupted volume estimations obtained for MEGT eruption(s), indicate that >5–10 km³ of this relatively enriched magma had accumulated in the Ischia plumbing system. Geochemical modelling indicates that it accumulated at shallow depths (4–6 km), over a period of ca. 20 ka. After the MEGT eruption, volcanic activity was fed by a new batch of less differentiated (trachyte-latite) magma that was slightly less enriched in radiogenic Sr. The geochemical and Sr–Nd-isotopic variations through time reflect the upward flux of isotopically distinct magma batches, variably contaminated by Hercynian crust at 8–12 km depth. The deep-sourced latitic to trachytic magmas stalled at shallow depths (4–6 km depth), differentiated to phonolite through crystal fractionation and assimilation of a feldspar-rich mush, or ascended directly to the surface and erupted.     

Tree growth response to the 1913 eruption of Volcán de Fuego de Colima, Mexico

The impact of volcanic eruptions on forest ecosystems can be investigated using dendrochronological records. While long-range effects are usually mediated by decreased air temperatures, resulting in frost rings or reduced maximum latewood density, local effects include abrupt suppression of radial growth, occasionally followed by greater than normal growth rates. Annual rings in Mexican mountain pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) on Nevado de Colima, at the western end of the Mexican Neovolcanic Belt, indicate extremely low growth in 1913 and 1914, following the January 1913 Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego, 7.7 km to the south. That event, which is listed among the largest explosive eruptions since A.D. 1500, produced ashflow deposits up to 40 m thick and blanketed our study area on Nevado de Colima with a tephra fallout 15–30 cm deep. Radial growth reduction in 1913–14 was ≥30% in 73% of the sampled trees. We geostatistically investigated the ecological impact of the eruption by mapping the decrease in xylem increment and found no evidence of a spatial structure in growth reduction. Little information has been available to date on forest species as biological archives of past environments in the North American tropics, yet this historical case study suggests that treeline tropical sites hold valuable records of prehistoric phenomena, including volcanic eruptions.     

The terminal Cretaceous event: Circumterrestrial rings of tektite glass particles?

It is proposed to regard the terminal Cretaceous event as similar to the radiolarian extinction event in the late Eocene: the result of a volcanic eruption or series of eruptions on the moon. Some glassy ash, lapilli and blocks from these eruptions fell to the earth; some, in geocentric orbit, formed clouds around the earth. In accordance with current theory, it is found that the clouds in orbit would evolve into sets of rings, which would last a few hundred thousand to a few million years, and would perturb the climate of the earth. One such eruption apparently included iridium-bearing material, perhaps from the deep interior of the moon.The hypothesis permits a reconciliation between the evidence for the catastrophic intervention of extra-terrestrial masses in the earth environment, and the evidence for gradual (though rapid) change of flora and fauna at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. The formation of the E-ring of Saturn by ejecta from the Saturnian satellite Enceladus may have been analogous. The theory might be tested by studies of diurnal layering in molluscan shells.     

Climate-Volcanism Feedback and the Toba Eruption of 74,000 Years Ago

A general feedback between volcanism and climate at times of transition in the Quaternary climate record is suggested, exemplified by events accompanying the Toba eruption (74,000 yr ago), the largest known late Quaternary explosive volcanic eruption. The Toba paroxysm occurred during the δ¹⁸O stage 5a-4 transition, a period of rapid ice growth and falling global sea level, which may have been a factor in creating stresses that triggered the volcanic event. Toba is estimated to have produced between 10¹⁵ and 10¹⁶ g of fine ash and sulfur gases lofted in co-ignimbrite ash clouds to heights of at least 32 ± 5 km, which may have led to dense stratospheric dust and sulfuric acid aerosol clouds. These conditions could have created a brief, dramatic cooling or "volcanic winter," followed by estimated annual Northern Hemisphere surface-temperature decreases of 3° to 5°C caused by the longer-lived aerosols. Summer temperature decreases of 10°C at high northern latitudes, adjacent to regions already covered by snow and ice, might have increased snow cover and sea-ice extent, accelerating the global cooling already in progress. Evidence for such climate-volcanic feedback, following Milankovitch periodicities, is found at several climatic transitions.     

Volcanic hazards to airports

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries—USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom—have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators.     

The 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano,Eritrea: perspectives on magmatic processes from melt inclusions

The 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano, Eritrea, produced one of the largest volcanic sulphur inputs to the atmosphere since the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, yet has received comparatively little scientific attention. Nabro forms part of an off-axis alignment, broadly perpendicular to the Afar Rift, and has a history of large-magnitude explosive silicic eruptions, as well as smaller more mafic ones. Here, we present and analyse extensive petrological data obtained from samples of trachybasaltic tephra erupted during the 2011 eruption to assess the pre-eruptive magma storage system and explain the large sulphur emission. We show that the eruption involved two texturally distinct batches of magma, one of which was more primitive and richer in sulphur than the other, which was higher in water (up to 2.5 wt%). Modelling of the degassing and crystallisation histories demonstrates that the more primitive magma rose rapidly from depth and experienced degassing crystallisation, while the other experienced isobaric cooling in the crust at around 5 km depth. Interaction between the two batches occurred shortly before the eruption. The eruption itself was likely triggered by recharge-induced destabilisation of vertically extensive mush zone under the volcano. This could potentially account for the large volume of sulphur released. Some of the melt inclusions are volatile undersaturated, and suggest that the original water content of the magma was around 1.3 wt%, which is relatively high for an intraplate setting, but consistent with seismic studies of the Afar plume. This eruption was smaller than some geological eruptions at Nabro, but provides important insights into the plumbing systems and dynamics of off-axis volcanoes in Afar.     

Tephrochronology of the Siple Dome ice core,West Antarctica: correlations and sources

A total of 24 tephra-bearing volcanic layers have been recognized between 550 and 987 m depth in the Siple Dome A (SDM-A) ice core, in addition to a number already recognized tephra in the upper 550 m (Dunbar et al., 2003, Kurbatov et al., 2006). The uniform composition and distinctive morphological of the particles composing these tephra layers suggest deposition as a result of explosive volcanic eruptions and that the layers therefore represent time-stratigraphic markers in the ice core. Despite the very fine grain size of these tephra (mostly less than 20 microns), robust geochemical compositions were determined by electron microprobe analysis. The source volcanoes for these tephra layers are largely found within the Antarctic plate. Statistical geochemical correlations tie nine of the tephra layers to known eruptions from Mt. Berlin, a West Antarctic volcano that has been very active for the past 100,000 years. Previous correlations were made to an eruption of Mt. Takahe, another West Antarctic volcano, and one to Mt. Hudson, located in South America (Kurbatov et al., 2006). The lowest tephra layer in the ice core, located at 986.21 m depth, is correlated to a source eruption with an age of 118.1 ± 1.3 ka, suggesting a chronological pinning point for the lower ice. An episode of anomalously high volcanic activity in the ice in the SDM-A core between 18 and 35 ka (Gow and Meese, 2007) appears to be related to eruptive activity of Mt. Berlin volcano. At least some of the tephra layers found in the SDM-A core appear to be the result of very explosive eruptions that spread ash across large parts of West Antarctica, off the West Antarctic coast, as well as also being recognized in East Antarctica (Basile et al., 2001, Narcisi et al., 2005, Narcisi et al., 2006). Some of these layers would be expected to should be found in other deep Antarctic ice cores, particularly ones drilled in West Antarctica, providing correlative markers between different cores. The analysis of the tephra layers in the Siple Dome core, along with other Antarctic cores, provides a timing framework for the relatively proximal Antarctic and South American volcanic eruptive events, allowing these to be distinguished from the tropical eruptions that may play a greater role in climate forcing.     

Volcanic ash forecast during the June 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds.     

Widespread dispersal of Icelandic tephra: how does the Eyjafjöll eruption of 2010 compare to past Icelandic events?

The Eyjafjöll AD 2010 eruption is an extraordinary event in that it led to widespread and unprecedented disruption to air travel over Europe – a region generally considered to be free from the hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Following the onset of the eruption, satellite imagery demonstrated the rapid transportation of ash by westerly winds over mainland Europe, eventually expanding to large swathes of the North Atlantic Ocean and the eastern seaboard of Canada. This small‐to‐intermediate size eruption and the dispersal pattern observed are not particularly unusual for Icelandic eruptions within a longer‐term perspective. Indeed, the Eyjafjöll eruption is a relatively modest eruption in comparison to some of the 20 most voluminous eruptions that have deposited cryptotephra in sedimentary archives in mainland Europe, such as the mid Younger Dryas Vedde Ash and the mid Holocene Hekla 4 tephra. The 2010 eruption, however, highlights the critical role that weather patterns play in the distribution of a relatively small amount of ash and also highlights the spatially complex dispersal trajectories of tephra in the atmosphere. Whether or not the preservation of the Eyjafjöll 2010 tephra in European proxy archives will correspond to the extensive distributions mapped in the atmosphere remains to be seen. The Eyjafjöll 2010 event highlights our increased vulnerability to natural hazards rather than the unparalleled explosivity of the event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

History of scoria-cone eruptions on the eastern shoulder of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift revealed in the 250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro

Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.