A model for developing best practice volcano monitoring: a combined threat assessment,consultation and network effectiveness approach

This paper presents a combined approach to achieving best practice volcano monitoring through a review of New Zealand’s volcano-monitoring capability as established under the GeoNet project. A series of benchmark, consultation and network performance studies were undertaken to provide a comprehensive review of volcano monitoring in New Zealand and to establish plans for future improvements in capability. The United States Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System method was applied to benchmark the established monitoring networks against recommendations for instrumentation based on a volcano’s threat level. Next, a consultative study of New Zealand’s volcanology research community was undertaken to canvass opinions on what future directions GeoNet volcano monitoring should take. Once the seismic network infrastructure had been built, a noise floor analysis was conducted to identify stations with poor site noise characteristics. Noise remediation for poor sites has been implemented by either re-locating the site or placing sensors in boreholes. Quality control of Global Navigation Satellite System networks is undertaken through the use of multipath parameters derived from routine processing. Finally, the performance of the monitoring networks is assessed against two recent eruptions at Mount Tongariro and White Island. This combined approach can be used as a model to assess the need for future monitoring levels on any volcano.     

Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation

Satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions can provide critical information for aviation hazard mitigation, particularly when ash detection techniques fail. Recent developments in space-based SO₂ monitoring are discussed, focusing on daily, global ultraviolet (UV) measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. OMI’s high sensitivity to SO₂ permits long-range tracking of volcanic clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and accurate mapping of their perimeters to facilitate avoidance. Examples from 2006 to 2007 include eruptions of Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), Rabaul (Papua New Guinea), Nyamuragira (DR Congo), and Jebel at Tair (Yemen). A tendency for some volcanic clouds to occupy the jet stream suggests an increased threat to aircraft that exploit this phenomenon. Synergy between NASA A-Train sensors such as OMI and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite can provide critical information on volcanic cloud altitude. OMI and AIRS SO₂ data products are being produced in near real-time for distribution to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) via a NOAA website. Operational issues arising from these improved SO₂ measurements include the reliability of SO₂ as proxy for co-erupted ash, the duration of VAAC advisories for long-lived volcanic clouds, and the potential effects of elevated concentrations of SO₂ and sulfate aerosol in ash-poor clouds on aircraft and avionics (including cumulative effects after multiple inadvertent transits through dilute clouds). Further research is required in these areas. Aviation community assistance is sought through continued reporting of sulfurous odors or other indications of diffuse volcanic cloud encounters, in order to validate the satellite retrievals.     

新西兰Taranaki盆地中新世Kora火山高精度地层格架

建立埋藏火山的高精度地层格架对了解火山系统的演化、储层成因和资源潜力等具有重要意义.以新西兰Taranaki盆地中新世Kora火山为例,利用小波变换和井震联合对比等方法,开展火山地层高精度格架分析.在Kora火山识别出20个堆积单元,主要为火山碎屑堆积单元以及再搬运碎屑堆积单元,可合并为5个部分（相当于5个火山机构）;整体上火山地层的建造与喷发中心的形成和迁移有关. 利用井和常规三维地震数据可以较为准确地识别出喷发间断不整合界面系统、可建立堆积单元尺度的高精度地层格架,利用常规三维地震数据只能识别出部分喷发间断不整合界面、只能建立火山机构尺度的地层格架. 相对年代的高精度地层格架是埋藏火山的更好选择.      

全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征

本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次.     

长白山天池地区全新世以来火山活动及其特征

新生代以来,强烈而频繁的火山活动铸成了长白山火山的主体——白头山火山锥。近几年来,从火山学和火山灾害学角度在该区进行研究和调查所获得的资料发现,长白山天池地区在全新世至少有六期火山活动在地表留下了记录。除白云峰期和八卦庙期喷发出大量碱流岩质浮岩形成的火山碎屑流造成了严重的火山灾害之外,其他四次喷发的规模均较小、影响面不大。老虎洞期活动发生在浮岩喷发之前,主要产物为玄武质火山渣和熔岩;气象站期喷发可能是该火山近期活动的表现,以碱流岩喷溢为主。这些喷发活动证实,该区近代火山活动不仅从未停止过,相反,活动的频度却逐渐加大。     

同期叠置式火山构造地层层序的建立--以福建永泰油洋地区早白垩世寨下组火山岩地层为例

在大面积火山岩分布地区填图，对于复杂的相互叠置的同期不同喷发次的火山岩，通过火山构造的研究、不同喷发次界面的确定及不同岩石组合特征的归并，划分出喷发间歇期区（带），并理清不同火山构造和群体间的上下关系。在这基础上，依据各火山构造和群体的地层剖面建立地层层序。这不仅反映了测区火山活动的全貌，而且对建立火山岩地层的层序更趋合理。     

Glacier Peak,Washington: A potentially hazardous cascade volcano

Recent field studies of postglacial volcanic deposits at Glacier Peak indicate the volcano has erupted more often, more voluminously, and more recently than previously thought. These past eruptions produced pyroclastic flows, extensive lahars, and widely distributed tephra falls. Analysis of the magnitude of past eruptions and the distribution of volcanic sediments indicates that future eruptions at Glacier Peak as large as those of the last several thousand years would dramatically affect people and property downstream and downwind from the volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lateral blasts would primarily affect uninhabited valleys within a few tens of kilometers of the volcano. Lahars and floods constitute the major hazard to populated areas from future eruptions, and could affect areas at low elevation along valley floors and in the Puget lowland as far as 100 km downvalley west of the volcano. Air-fall tephra from future eruptions will probably be deposited primarily east of Glacier Peak because of prevailing westerly winds.     

腾冲火山区上新世以来的火山活动

对腾冲火山区上新世以来的火山,尤其是具有最新活动的黑空山、打鹰山和鞍山进行了比较系统的Ｋ－年龄分析。去除样品中含有过剩氩的斜长石斑晶和橄榄石斑晶以后获得了一系列准确的基质Ｋ－Ａｒ年龄;根据火山活动的时空变化把腾冲火山活动分为三个期。第一期为上新世晚期,火山活动集中于火山区的西北和东南两端;第二期为早更新世期间,火山活动向腾冲盆地中心迁移和扩展,活动规模和分布面积最大;第三期为早更新世末期至全新世,     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987110000356

We have analyzed the July 15,2009,Fiordland earthquake(M_w 7.8),which occurred in the southwestern part of the South Island of New Zealand.This thrust-related earthquake in the southern Fiordland subduction zone is the largest New Zealand earthquake in the past 80 years.We have constrained a rupture model for this earthquake using coseismic offsets derived from the continuous geodetic network(Global Positioning System) of the New Zealand Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS Science).Our anal...     

Tall clouds from small eruptions: the sensitivity of eruption height and fine ash content to tropospheric instability

A critical factor in successfully monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash dispersion for aviation safety is the height reached by eruption clouds, which is affected by environmental factors, such as wind shear and atmospheric instability. Following earlier work using the Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model for strong Plinian eruptions, this study considered a range of eruption strengths in different atmospheres. The results suggest that relatively weak volcanic eruptions in the moist tropics can trigger deep convection that transports volcanic material to 15–20 km. For the same volcanic strength there can be ~9 km difference between eruption heights in moist tropical and dry subpolar environments (a larger height difference than previously suggested), which appears consistent with observations. These results suggest that eruption intensity should not be estimated from eruption height alone for tropospheric eruptions and also that the average height of volcanic eruptions may increase if the tropical atmospheric belt widens in a changing climate. Ash aggregation is promoted by hydrometeors (particularly liquid water), so the smaller modelled eruptions in moist atmospheres, which have a relatively small ash content for their height and water content, result in a relatively small proportion of fine ash in the dispersing cloud when compared to a dry atmosphere. This in turn makes the ash clouds much more difficult to detect using remote sensing than those in dry atmospheres. Overall, a weak eruption in the tropics is more likely to produce a plume above cruising levels for civil aviation, harder to detect and track, but with a lower concentration of fine ash than a mid-latitude or polar equivalent. There is currently no defined ‘acceptable’ concentration of ash for aircraft, but as these results suggest low-grade encounters in the tropics from undetected clouds are likely, it would be desirable to explore that issue.     

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.     

宽甸火山群地质遗迹的地质特征与特殊性

宽甸地处营口-宽甸古隆起东部北缘,在距今0.12~8 Ma间,火山多次喷发留下了特殊的火山群地质遗迹.宽甸火山群的多期喷发,产生多种岩石组成的火山岩,火山岩中含有大量上地幔橄榄岩包体与丰富的巨晶矿物以及特殊的火山群地质地貌具有追溯地质历史的重大科学研究价值和观赏价值.     

天池火山三期浮岩气孔形态的复杂性及其动力学成因

爆炸式喷发过程中,火山碎屑物气孔记录了挥发分出溶、膨胀和合并等信息,其大小、形态、数量密度、空间分布等局域特征是推断火山喷发动力条件的重要参考。文章基于天池火山三期喷发(50 000年前大喷发的黄色浮岩、千年大喷发的灰白色浮岩和1668年八卦庙期喷发的黑色浮岩)野外地质工作,以非线性火山喷发动力学为指导,开展了火山通道内气泡生长的流体动力学研究,揭示出岩浆流体黏性力和界面张力的共同作用对于岩浆减压和气泡生长过程的约束。在浮岩气孔结构的定量化分析基础上,进一步研究了天池火山三期喷发的浮岩气孔参数,通过气泡生长流体动力学方程得到了千年大喷发灰白色浮岩毛细管数Ca值为253, 明显高于50 000年前大喷发黄色浮岩(Ca值为94)和八卦庙期喷发黑色浮岩(Ca值为111),表明了千年大喷发曾发生过明显的成分变化,推测可能与幔源基性岩浆注入有关;而50 000年前大喷发黄色浮岩气孔不规则形态参数(1-Ω)值为0.098,大于后两期喷发(分别为0.052和0.064),可能意味着天池火山系统动力学平衡的弛豫周期变小或浮岩气泡生长受动力学、流变学改造过程减弱,这可为进一步研究天池火山活动规律提供参考。三期浮岩毛细管数Ca量级为102,气孔不规则形态参数(1-Ω)量级为10-1,从动力学上首次证实了天池火山属于普林尼型或超普林尼型喷发。     

Holocene vegetation and volcanic activity,Auckland Isthmus,New Zealand

A 12 000 to 4000 yr BP pollen and tephra-bearing profile from Auckland, New Zealand, provides insights into the vegetation history and evidence for early Holocene volcanic activity in this area centred on the Mount Wellington basaltic volcano. Possibly 500 yr separated initial scoriaceous ash deposition (ca. 9500 yr ago) and subsequent major lava flows (ca. 9000 yr ago) from Mount Wellington. The local vegelation, topography, and drainage patterns were substantially modified during this time, and damming by the lava flows resulted in the formation of Lake Waiatarua in a shallow valley head ca. 9000 yr ago. Diatom evidence indicates that this lake was initially deep (> 5 m) but was shallowing around 4000 yr ago. In contrast to the Mount Wellington eruptions, tephra deposition resulting from distant rhyolitic volcanic activity of the central North Island and Mayor Island has had little effect on the Auckland vegetation during this time interval (12 000–4000 yr ago). Between ca. 12 000 and 10 000 yr ago, conifer-angiosperm forest was the predominant vegetation cover on Auckland Isthmus, but during the early Holocene, forest dominated by Metrosideros expanded, probably on to fresh volcanic surfaces resulting from the Mount Wellington eruptions. At this time, swamp forest communities developed in Waiatarua valley basin, and included species indicative of moist, mild, relatively frost-free climates. Some taxa show histories consistent with other records from the northern New Zealand region, including the rise of Ascarina lucida ca. 11 000 to 9000 yr ago, and its subsequent decline, and the expansion of Agathis australis (kauri) forest communities from ca. 6000 yr ago. Taken together the history of local and regional vegetation points to a mild, moist and weakly seasonal early Holocene climate, which subsequently became drier with greater seasonal temperature extremes.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

中国2007年以来全新世火山地质研究的主要进展

简要列举了近年来全新世火山地质领域的研究进展,主要涉及新确定的全新世火山、精细喷发序列与喷发频率、高分辨率火山机构多维框架研究、火山碎屑物粒度分布、形貌特征与成因、火山碎屑流、涌流和火山泥石流堆积、降落堆积成因亚类、火山活动与新构造和火山地质遗迹资源、环境及火山灾害。     

火山喷发机制、气候效应及火山地球工程

火山是地球内部与表层系统连接的纽带,是地球充满生机活力的体现.减轻大型火山喷发对全球气候和环境的影响是地球科学的重大研究主题.提出探索岩浆储库的累积组装和演变规律,研究火山喷发的触发机制,聚焦地球内、外层圈的相互作用,认识火山活动与全球气候和表层环境变化的互馈关系,构建火山地球工程的理论体系和技术框架,是减轻火山灾害对全人类不利影响的关键.其中,基于岩浆动力学和火山学的岩浆通道系统研究,将会为火山活动的预测和监测提供新的理论依据.火山活动的影响是全球性的.所以,我们要抢占先机,在深化火山喷发机制理论研究和构建减轻火山灾害影响的工程技术体系等方面有所作为.      

Merapi (Java,Indonesia): anatomy of a killer volcano

Merapi is Indonesia's most dangerous volcano with a history of deadly eruptions. Over the past two centuries, the volcanic activity has been dominated by prolonged periods of lava dome growth and intermittent gravitational or explosive dome failures to produce pyroclastic flows every few years. Explosive eruptions, such as in 2010, have occurred occasionally during this period, but were more common in pre‐historical time, during which a collapse of the western sector of the volcano occurred at least once. Variations in magma supply from depth, magma ascent rates and the degassing behaviour during ascent are thought to be important factors that control whether Merapi erupts effusively or explosively. A combination of sub‐surface processes operating at relatively shallow depth inside the volcano, including complex conduit processes and the release of carbon dioxide into the magmatic system through assimilation of carbonate crustal rocks, may result in unpredictable explosive behaviour during periods of dome growth. Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational or explosive lava dome collapses and subsequent lahars remain the most likely immediate hazards near the volcano, although the possibility of more violent eruptions that affect areas farther away from the volcano cannot be fully discounted. In order to improve hazard assessment during future volcanic crises at Merapi, we consider it crucial to improve our understanding of the processes operating in the volcano's plumbing system and their surface manifestations, to generate accurate hazard zonation maps that make use of numerical mass flow models on a realistic digital terrain model, and to utilize probabilistic information on eruption recurrence and inundation areas.     

Rhyolitic volcanic corridors in magmatic arcs: comparing North Wales and North Island, New Zealand

Exceptionally voluminous arc-related rhyolitic eruptions from clusters of caldera complexes, as seen in Snowdonia, North Wales (mid-Caradoc), and North Island, New Zealand (late Neogene-Quaternary), are characteristically confined within transient, fault-controlled corridors in continental crust. New Zealand rhyolitic corridors (Coromandel, Central, Taupo) have developed in response to the spearheading of an oceanic arc into continental crust, combined with subduction rollback-induced extension during clockwise rotation pivoting around central North Island. Inherited high heat flow from earlier arc magmatism, intracrustal plastic deformation, and mantle-derived magma ponding and fractionation beneath a less dense, fracture-toughened crust, all contribute synergistically to crustal fusion and catastrophic volcanism. A similar scenario is suggested for the Snowdonia volcanic corridor where at least six major rhyolitic centres were restricted in space and time (Soudleyan-Woolstonian). After the climactic Snowdonian eruptions, arc magmatism was extinguished in Wales: a fate predicted for New Zealand rhyolitic volcanism as subduction rollback continues.