中国木本植物物候对气温变化的响应

本文利用全国21个站的木本植物物候资料和全国599个站的逐日气温资料,分析了1963~1988年中国木本植物物候对气温变化的响应,研究表明:26年来,植物春季物候期与春季气温在全国总体呈负相关,气温越高,物候期越提前;植物秋季物候期与秋季气温在全国呈正相关,但相关性没有春季物候期显著;我国木本植物物候生长季长度有明显的南-北向梯度,早春气温对植物物候生长季的影响比秋末气温对其影响更大。      

气候增暖对广东省植物物候变化的影响

根据广东省气象观测资料和10个农业气象观测站的物候观测资料,分析了1982~2004年温度变化对广东省木本植物物候变化的影响,并建立了物候期差异与温度之间的关系模式,分析了当前气候增暖背景下物候期对温度变化的响应关系。结果表明:平均温度上升,木本植物春季物候期提前;平均温度下降,木本植物春季物候期推迟。物候期的提前与推迟对温度的上升与下降的响应是非线性的。在同等升降温幅度情况下,降温导致的物候期推迟幅度较升温导致的物候期提前幅度大。     

影响鲁西南木本植物秋季物候期的气象要素分析

选取鲁西南地区1981—2020年旱柳、榆树、合欢、楝树4种不同科属典型木本植物物候期资料,结合当地相应时期的气候资料进行相关性分析,研究气象要素变化对不同种类木本植物秋季物候期产生的影响。结果表明：（1）鲁西南地区1981—2020年平均日平均气温、平均日最低气温均呈极显著上升趋势,上升速率分别为0482 ℃/10 a、0609 ℃/10 a。（2）受气候变化影响,鲁西南地区四种木本植物的秋季物候期均呈推迟趋势,榆树、旱柳对于气候变化的敏感度高于其他两种木本植物,木本植物的秋季物候期中落叶末期对气候变化响应最为强烈。（3）鲁西南地区木本植物秋季物候期变化受气温、地温、风速的影响较大,其中气温、地温越高,木本植物秋季物候期会出现的越晚;风速越大,木本植物秋季物候期会出现的越早。（4）鲁西南地区木本植物秋季物候期虽受日照、降水、空气湿度等气象要素影响,但影响并不显著。     

1986-2010年巴楚木本植物物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应分析

利用巴楚国家基本气候站1986-2010年的气象观测数据和地面物候观测资料,采用气候倾向率和气候趋势系数方法,分析气温、降水、日照时数的变化特征;木本植物选用新疆杨(Populus bolleanalanche),垂柳(Salix babylonica),杏树(Prunus armeniaca),苹果树(Malus pumila),沙枣树(Fdeagnys Qxycarpasehlecht),对植物物候期与气候变化的相互关系进行研究。研究表明：近25年来巴楚气候增暖现象较明显,增温率为0.18～0.95℃/10a,春、秋季变暖的趋势大于冬、夏季;降水量变化趋势不明显,整体呈现减少趋势,气候倾向率为-0.61 mm/10a,春、夏降水量呈减少趋势,冬、秋两季降水量均呈增多趋势;年日照时数呈减少趋势,气候倾向率为-30.34h/10a。除春季日照时数表现为增加趋势外,其他季节均表现为不同程度的减少趋势。其中,以冬季减幅最显著,平均减少-27.09h/10a。近25a来喀什木本植物芽开放期、展叶始期、开花始期表现为一致的提前趋势, 叶变色始期和落叶始期表现推迟的趋势;影响植物物候期的主要气候因子为气温和日照时数,随气温升高、日照时数增多,植物生长季延长。木本植物春季物候期与春季气温和春季日照时数呈负相关,且相关性显著,而与冬季气温和冬季日照时数几乎没有显著相关性。木本植物物候与秋季温度呈正相关,秋季气温升高,物候期推迟。在生产生活中,根据植物的物候期变化安排农、林业生产有重要的意义。     

粤中地区木本植物春季物候特征及其对气候变化的响应

根据1982-2012年高要气象站自然物候和气象观测资料,利用线性回归、相关分析等方法研究了近30 a来粤中地区木本植物木棉、苦楝春季物候特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明,粤中地区木本植物春季物候期总体呈提前趋势,苦楝展叶始期、开花盛期平均每年提前0.4 d和0.8 d,木棉开花盛期、展叶始期平均每年提前0.8 d和1.1 d。冬季平均气温、春季平均气温、年平均气温以及前期≥10℃积温均与苦楝、木棉展叶始期、开花盛期呈显著负相关,其中,2-3月平均气温对苦楝、木棉春季物候期的影响最为显著,高要市2-3月平均气温上升1℃,苦楝展叶始期、开花盛期分别提前5.4 d和6.9 d,木棉开花盛期、展叶始期分别提前6.6 d和8.0 d。物候期特征可作为评估区域气候变化的一个衡量指标,为当地生态系统保护、新物种引进、农时预报和农林业发展等提供参考。     

气候变化对阴山北麓木本植物物候期的影响

本文基于内蒙古农牧业气象观测站1994—2015年旱柳、榆树和小叶杨三种木本植物物候观测资料及同期气候数据,采用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数等方法,探讨了气候变化对阴山北麓木本植物物候的影响。结果表明：近22 a,阴山北麓旱柳、榆树和小叶杨的花芽开放期和落叶末期均表现为提前趋势,且落叶末期提前幅度较大,平均每10 a分别提前2.9 d、3.6 d、4.6 d。生长季缩短,平均生长季长度为182 d。气温是影响旱柳、榆树、小叶杨春季花芽开放期的关键气象因子,春季气温每升高1℃,花芽开放期提前4.1 d;而落叶末期对降水量较为敏感,水分条件是阴山北麓木本植物落叶末期的主要限制因子。     

中国植物物候变化预测

根据中国20个观测站点的木本、草本植物物候资料,结合气温、降水资料,预测了1989～2099年植物始展叶期、始花期物候,结果表明：未来我国气温、降水、季节开始时间变化,对我国植物物候期有明显的影响,其中气温对物候期的作用最为显著。春季气温升高,春季物候期提前,未来全国5区植物始展叶期、始花期均以显著的提前趋势为主,植物...     

中国木本植物物候变化特征分析

利用1963—1988年中国木本植物物候观测资料,运用趋势分析的方法研究了26 a来全国21个站的木本植物物候变化特征。结果表明:26 a来,全国各地区木本植物春季物候期和秋季物候期大体上都是推迟的,1976—1988年与1963—1975年相比,绝大多数植物物候期都有明显推迟,部分植物物候期推迟了10 d以上。     

气温对巴楚县乔木物候的影响

利用新疆巴楚气象站1987—2013年物候资料和气象资料,运用线性回归、t检验、相关分析等方法,分析了巴楚县气温和乔木物候期的变化特征,以及气温对植物物候期的影响。结果表明：近27a巴楚县乔木春季展叶始期表现出明显提前趋势,秋季叶变色始期表现出推迟趋势,生长季明显延长;3月份气温对展叶始期的影响最显著,巴楚县3月份气温每上升1℃,乔木展叶始期提前2.6d。     

用树木物候期做玉米播种期预报

利用呼和浩特1971—2007年气象资料与1988—2007年物候资料,分析了玉米适宜播种期与春季树木物候期的相互关系。结果表明:春季树木物候期与气温存在很好的相关性,用冬春季气温预报春季树木物候期,再由树木物候期确定玉米适播期,或用树木已出现的物候期预测下一个物候期,从而预报玉米适播期等方法均取得较好的预报效果。     

石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究

分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明：（1）石家庄春季物候期普遍提早,早春的物候期提前天数多,晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2～3年的周期。（2）通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系,发现与气温的关系最好,与降水日数表现出弱的相关性,与日照关系不明显,说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子,GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标,而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。（3）石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系,在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主,在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。     

基于遥感数据的内蒙古草原灌丛物候变化研究

植被物候研究是全球气候变化研究的重要内容,但国际上有关干旱半干旱区灌丛物候变化的研究还很缺乏。为了探讨气候变化对内蒙古草原灌丛物候的影响,利用2000~2011年的MODIS EVI时间序列影像,采用动态阈值法得到6种灌丛12 a物候年际变化情况,结合样点附近气象站的气温和降水数据,分析了灌丛物候与气候变化的动态关系。结果表明：（1）内蒙古中西部草原灌丛返青期、枯黄期都呈现提前的趋势,生长季长度缩短;（2）春季均温升高和前一年秋冬降水增加可以提前灌丛返青期,是影响返青期的主要因素;（3）秋季降水减少和夏秋均温上升都利于枯黄期提前,夏季降水的作用则因灌丛种类不同而略有差异;（4）夏秋均温上升缩短了生长季长度,夏秋降水量、春季均温则多与生长季长度呈正相关。     

Combined Impact of Climate Change,Cultivar Shift,and Sowing Date on Spring Wheat Phenology in Northern China

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980 s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China(NC).The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day(10 yr)~(-1). Moreover, while the vegetative growth period(VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period(RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period(WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator(APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC.Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat.Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages(i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures(cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.     

Combined impact of climate change,cultivar shift,and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China

Distinct climate changes since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in crop phenology in many parts of the world. This study investigated the trends in the dates of spring wheat phenology in relation to mean temperature for different growth stages. It also analyzed the impacts of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date adjustments on phenological events/phases of spring wheat in northern China (NC). The results showed that significant changes have occurred in spring wheat phenology in NC due to climate warming in the past 30 years. Specifically, the dates of anthesis and maturity of spring wheat advanced on average by 1.8 and 1.7 day (10 yr)^?1. Moreover, while the vegetative growth period (VGP) shortened at most stations, the reproductive growth period (RGP) prolonged slightly at half of the investigated stations. As a result, the whole growth period (WGP) of spring wheat shortened at most stations. The findings from the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model simulated results for six representative stations further suggested that temperature rise generally shortened the spring wheat growth period in NC. Although the warming trend shortened the lengths of VGP, RGP, and WGP, the shift of new cultivars with high accumulated temperature requirements, to some extent, mitigated and adapted to the ongoing climate change. Furthermore, shifts in sowing date exerted significant impacts on the phenology of spring wheat. Generally, an advanced sowing date was able to lower the rise in mean temperature during the different growth stages (i.e., VGP, RGP, and WGP) of spring wheat. As a result, the lengths of the growth stages should be prolonged. Both measures (cultivar shift and sowing date adjustments) could be vital adaptation strategies of spring wheat to a warming climate, with potentially beneficial effects in terms of productivity.     

Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)

Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat, rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately, human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact.     

全球变暖背景下中国东部气候变迁及其对物候的影响

鉴于我国东部地区对全球气候变化的高度敏感性,本文应用1960~2014年的CRU和HadISST等全球地表（地球表面的简称,包括陆地和海洋表面,下同）温度再分析资料,采用地理等温线和春、秋季（代表月地表温度）时间的变迁速度等指标,分析了全球和中国东部地区的气候变化速度以及春、秋季物候的变化。结果显示:（1）自1960年以来,全球地表温度呈现十分清晰的上升趋势,其中,北半球（陆地）比南半球（海洋）变暖更显著,地理等温线向两极方向迁移;（2）南、北半球的春（秋）季明显提前（滞后）;（3）中国东部地表温度呈快速上升趋势,陆地升温虽普遍快于海洋,但东部海域升温快于相邻的陆地,地理等温线总体向北迁移,海域的春、秋季物候变化较陆地显著;（4）中国东部生物物候受气候变化影响明显,海域地理等温线的北移受到沿岸地形的抑制,海洋生物适应气候变化的能力受到限制,海洋生态系统及生物多样性将面临气候变化带来的显著风险。     

Inter-Annual Variability and Decadal Trends in Alpine Spring Phenology: A Multivariate Analysis Approach

Plant phenological observations are of increasing value as indicators of climate change and variability. We developed a robust multispecies estimate for Swiss Alpine spring phenology for the period 1965–2002 by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on a combination of 15 spring phases. The impact of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation on the phenological development was investigated using a multivariate statistical model. This multispecies estimate proved to be a good approach to assess the pattern of spring appearance during the last 40 years. It revealed an earlier onset of spring in recent years, mainly since 1988 when a clear shift in spring appearance occurred. The mean overall trend of 1.5 days per decade was clearly driven by winter and spring temperatures whereas precipitation showed no significant influence. The dominant EOF patterns suggested a general climate forcing for the observed inter-annual variability independent of single plant phases. A more regional phenology signal was found in the second EOF mode, indicating slightly weaker phenological trends in southern Switzerland as well as in higher altitudes. Both, temperature and precipitation contributed to this pattern significantly. Analysis of single phases confirmed the pattern of the multispecies estimate. All species showed trends towards earlier appearance ranging from −1 to −2.8 days per decade and the appearance dates had a very high covariance with temperature.     

1982-2012年北半球荒漠草原过渡带植被物候特征及其与气候因子的关系

基于GIMMS（global inventory modeling and mapping studies）NDVI 3g数据,在提取北半球荒漠草原过渡带每年植被物候期的基础上,研究了1982-2012年物候期的时间演化趋势及空间分异特征,并结合全球气候再分析资料,探讨了物候变化的气候驱动因素。结果表明：在1998年之前,荒漠草原过渡带植被物候期变化地区间差异较大,而在1998年之后,北半球荒漠草原过渡带生长季结束期整体提前,平均提前0.41 d/a;同时,除萨赫勒以外的各地区植被生长季长度普遍缩短,平均缩短0.88 d/a。植被物候期与气候因子的相关分析发现,荒漠草原过渡带植被物候变化受气候变化影响显著,且空间差异明显。在中高纬度地区,气温是限制植被活动的关键因子,温度升高可以促进生长季开始期的提前,而降水增加则会妨碍植被生长;在较低纬度地区,水分是影响植被活动的关键因素,高温造成的水分亏缺会导致植被生长季缩短。从植被物候期对各气候因子响应的时滞性来看,荒漠草原过渡带植被的物候期对气温变化的响应最迅速,对蒸散的响应存在一定的滞后性,而对降水的响应不存在时滞差异。     

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T_mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T_mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T_mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.