郁江流域堡上滑坡形成机制及稳定性分析

根据堡上滑坡的工程地质条件,分析了滑坡的形成机制,堡上滑坡变形破坏主要是受降雨及库水位变化的影响.在野外调查及勘查的基础上应用垂直条分法对滑坡的稳定性进行了计算,计算结果表明,在自重+408 m现状库水位的天然状态下,滑坡处于基本稳定状态,与现场调查所得结论一致,在暴雨和库水位变化的情况下,堡上滑坡稳定性系数逐渐降低,...     

三峡水库运行条件下金乐滑坡稳定性评价

三峡水库运行后,水库水位每年将在145m～162m～175m间波动,库水位的浸泡软化作用及水位升降引起的地下水位的波动将会降低库岸岩土体的抗剪强度,影响已有滑坡的稳定性.因此,在实际水库运行条件下滑坡的稳定性是目前迫切需要研究的重要课题.针对库区大型复杂滑坡——金乐滑坡,分析了该滑坡的工程地质条件和形成机制;建立了二维有限元计算模型并选择合理的岩土力学参数;利用英国帝国理工学院ICFEP有限元软件,依据水库实际运行曲线,在一年时间内分7种不同的模拟状态进行了模拟.结果表明:(1)金乐滑坡在天然状态下处于稳定状态;(2)库水位上升状态下,滑坡前缘稳定性较相应的稳定水位状态较好;(3)水位下降状态,滑坡前缘将出现破坏,特别是162m下降至145m时,滑坡前缘出现破坏,存在中前部渐进破坏的可能;(4)金乐滑坡变形破坏形式为牵引渐进式,在一个水位波动周期内不存在整体滑移的危险.建议对滑坡前缘进行治理.     

奉节县曾家棚滑坡时空差异性变形特征与成因机制分析

研究库水位波动和降雨影响下滑坡的位移变形特征并分析其破坏机制,对了解三峡库区滑坡的演化过程具有重要意义。以奉节曾家棚滑坡为例,基于GPS地表监测位移分析了滑坡在不同特征库水位运行阶段的变化规律,结合灰色关联度模型确定了滑坡不同部位的变形在不同阶段的主要控制因素,借助GEO-Studio软件模拟了曾家棚滑坡在历史降雨和库水位波动耦合作用下的稳定性变化,并与定量分析结果进行了交叉检验。结果表明:曾家棚滑坡的运动状态随时间变化,从缓慢蠕变状态进入阶跃变形状态。平面上,中东部坡体与西部坡体相比,运动更加强烈;剖面上,前缘变形早且变形量大。曾家棚滑坡变形失稳过程为初期蓄水启动了曾家棚古滑坡,前缘首先发生变形;降雨作为中后期主控因素,和库水位波动联合作用共同诱发了滑坡多次阶跃变形,使滑坡前中后部形成贯通裂缝;最终由二十年一遇的暴雨诱发滑坡发生整体破坏。     

库水位波动条件下万州瓦窑坪滑坡稳定性分析

库水位波动对滑坡的稳定性变化有重要影响,传统的定值分析方法未能考虑土体强度参数取值的不定性,而概率分析法能考虑土体强度参数分布的随机性,对库区滑坡的稳定性分析提供了更有力的依据。文章以万州瓦窑坪滑坡为例,在基于库水位实际波动进行拟合的条件下对滑坡的渗流场进行了模拟,同时对不同水位下滑坡的稳定性和破坏概率进行了分析。结果表明,滑坡在库水位波动条件下整体稳定性系数均大于1,处于基本稳定状态,滑坡具有低危险性。库水位下降到160.47 m水位时,边坡破坏概率超过30%,具有中等危险性。采用R/S分析法对监测数据进行分析,结果表明滑坡具有持续性的小变形,滑坡处于基本稳定状态,与稳定性分析结果一致。     

清江流域覃家田滑坡成因机制及稳定性分析

覃家田滑坡位于清江流域隔河岩库区,是灰岩顺向岸坡区沿软弱夹层滑移的代表。水库（区）蓄水后前缘塌岸变形明显,其稳定性直接关系到3户共12人的生命财产安全及隔河岩水库的正常运行。通过野外调查,采用工程地质测绘、钻探、槽探等工程勘查手段,查明滑坡形成条件,分析滑坡形成演化历史和成因机制,并应用极限平衡分析法对滑坡进行了稳定性计算。滑坡稳定性主要受暴雨、水库水位涨落等外动力因素的影响;稳定性计算表明,该滑坡整体稳定性较好,但在暴雨加库水位骤降工况条件下稳定系数有所降低,局部存在滑塌的可能。     

顺层缓倾型水库滑坡稳定性物理模拟试验研究—以向家坪滑坡为例

深入研究顺层缓倾型水库滑坡的变形破坏规律、影响因素以及失稳条件, 以三峡库区向家坪滑坡为典型实例, 基于相似理论建立地质物理模型, 考虑水位升降、降雨(含汛期)等诱发因素, 通过监测滑坡模型的位移、土压力及孔隙水压力的时空演化规律, 掌握滑坡的变形特征和规律。结果表明:库水位上升, 坡体前缘不断被浸没, 致使土体结构松散, 前缘发生滑移式滑塌; 库水位下降, 其位移、土压力和孔隙水压力在坡体中部和后缘均无变化, 但前缘破坏范围扩大, 延伸至中部; 库水位的独立变动仅影响下伏滑床水位, 但当其与后缘的基岩裂隙水耦合作用时, 可改变滑床的承压水头; 汛期降雨较小, 对滑坡稳定性影响不大, 仅土压力和孔隙水压有小幅度的变化, 没有位移变形; 在暴雨作用下, 中部和后缘先后发生变形, 土体应力累积和释放。库水位下降时, 强降雨将改变坡体原始应力状态, 坡体产生微小变形; 在极端条件下向家坪滑坡发生滑动的可能性较大, 库水位的下降、暴雨和后缘水位相互耦合作用导致坡体变形破坏。研究结果可为库区地质灾害防治和减灾提供科学依据。     

三峡库区黄土坡滑坡浸润线动态变化规律研究

以三峡库区黄土坡滑坡为研究对象,结合滑坡体地下水位监测数据,分析库水涨落对滑坡地下水位的影响。建立了黄土坡滑坡渗流模拟的有限元计算模型,并确定了模型合理的水头边界条件。利用Geo-Studio软件的SEEP/W模块,对库水位涨落情况下滑坡暂态渗流场的变化进行模拟,并且分析浸润线的动态变化过程,确定了库水位涨落对滑坡前缘浸润线影响区在滑坡前缘300 m范围内,并对库水位上升和下降两种工况下滑体前缘浸润线位置进行了预测。最后,分析了库水位涨落下库岸滑坡浸润线变化对滑坡稳定性影响,为研究库水位涨落下库岸滑坡浸润线和滑坡稳定性提供了依据。     

三峡库区某滑坡稳定性模型试验研究

三峡库区地质灾害严重而且多发,其中滑坡灾害问题尤为突出。开展滑坡的模型试验与理论研究对于防灾减灾以及滑坡预报具有重要的价值与意义。以塘角村1号滑坡为例,在充分认识其地质原型的基础上,在室内进行了大量土工试验及水理性质实验(包括野外取样实验及相似材料实验),并根据相似理论优选了该滑坡的相似材料,利用实验室自行研制的地质环境模拟实验装置建立了滑坡地质力学模型; 在滑带土模拟问题上,采用土工模及聚乙烯薄膜取代使模型试验更能与野外相吻合。考虑降雨及地表水体造成滑坡体地下水位变化及控制面抗剪强度削减从而改变其稳定性的过程,设计了2种切合实际的模拟工况进行实验,结合电感调频式传感器结合无纸记录仪实时监测滑坡地表位移、孔隙水压力、土压力等指标的变化情况。结果显示,在暴雨220mmd-1 持续3d后,在库水位下降至169m时,滑坡前缘失稳。最后对滑坡地表位移时间曲线的变形阶段进行划分,可看出滑坡体前缘可从稳定状态直接进入加速蠕变阶段。     

三峡水库水位波动条件下滑坡抗滑工程效果的数值研究

抗滑桩是三峡库区滑坡治理工程中常用的措施,在三峡水库长期的周期性水位波动条件下,抗滑桩工程效果如何,即是否能够保证滑坡的整体稳定,是目前迫切需要研究的重要课题。选择三峡库区巴东县新县城的谭家坪滑坡次级滑坡-白水沟滑坡为研究对象,在分析工程地质条件和设计资料的基础上,建立二维有限元计算模型,选择合理的岩土力学参数和桩计算参数;利用ANSYS 软件,依据不同的模拟方案,分别模拟分析了滑坡在仅考虑自重、自重加暴雨在水位变化条件下的变形和稳定性状况以及抗滑桩的工程效果,即滑坡在设桩条件下的变形和稳定情况。结果表明：①白水沟滑坡破坏机理为牵引式。在暴雨和水位下降条件下,滑坡稳定性降低;周期性水位变化后,滑坡稳定性逐步下降,最终失稳;②依据自重和暴雨工况,考虑175 m降至145 m水位进行的抗滑桩设计,起到了明显的抗滑效果。③周期性水位波动后,滑坡变形破坏逐步加剧,说明抗滑桩虽然起到了的抗滑作用,但阻滑效果逐步下降。因此,在滑坡抗滑工程设计时应考虑该因素的影响,适当提高安全储备。     

台风暴雨条件下滑坡地下水渗流特征及成因机制

台风暴雨常引发大量的滑坡灾害,造成生命财产损失,因而研究台风暴雨条件下滑坡地下水渗流特征及成因机制对滑坡的防治、预警预报具有重要意义.以浙江省中林村滑坡为例,采用有限元数值方法,模拟了台风暴雨的两种常见工况（工况1:等强度降雨;工况2:渐变强度降雨）下滑坡地下水的暂态渗流场及稳定性.结果表明:两种工况条件下,滑坡地下水渗流特征基本相同,地下水位响应迅速,地下水位位于强风化和中风化接触面附近,且在坡脚形成溢流;但是工况1较工况2地下水水位上升速度快、幅度大;滑坡稳定系数与地下水水位及降雨强度等密切相关,在高强度降雨条件下,随地下水水位上升稳定系数快速下降,水位稳定以后,稳定系数下降速度减缓;中林村滑坡为典型的滑塌-拉裂-蠕滑缓动型变形破坏模式,台风暴雨引起斜坡岩土体地下水水位上升,基质吸力降低和孔隙水压力增加是其发生变形破坏的主要原因.本文所得结论能够为东南沿海地区台风暴雨诱发滑坡的预测预报与防治提供理论支持.      

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.     

Long-term growth of the oil industry in the United States

A number of growth models have been developed and used in an attempt to project the historical pattern of oil activities to some estimate of their upper limit. Techniques are outlined for the estimation of parameters of the logistic and Gompertz curves. Factor analysis indicated a close relationship between production and demand, whereas annual discoveries and discoveries classified by year of discovery tended to comprise unique factors which were indifferent to changes in time. The growth models projected relatively high values for ultimate demand and production in comparison to the figures for ultimate reserves. Inasmuch as these trends seemed to be occurring independently, some reconciliation of the results was necessary. Using the highest projections of estimates for reserves suggests that over 420 billion barrels of oil in place will eventually be discovered in the United States, with perhaps 200 billion barrels of this eventually to be proved in the form of reserves. Projections for production were higher, corresponding to a trend indicating high levels in demand for crude oil. The only credible long-term estimate of demand was given by a bounded exponential growth model, in which ultimate cumulative demand for crude oil would reach about 416 billion barrels. These figures imply that over 150 billion barrels of oil would be imported into the United States from 1970 to 2070. Provided the time pattern for one of the variables has been determined, then estimates of the other variables probably would be facilitated because of the high interrelationship between variables. Models are suggested in which accurate pivotal forecasting in the short term might be possible—assuming the particular future trend in some of the independent variables has been predetermined.Research Council of Alberta Contribution No. 596.     

Quantifying the failure probability of a canal levee

Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by flood defence systems along main water bodies such as rivers, lakes or the sea. Inside polders, canal levees provide protection from smaller water bodies. Canal levees are mainly earthen levees along drainage canals that drain excess water from polders to the main water bodies. The water levels in these canals are regulated. During the last decades, probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the probability of failure of flood defences along the main water bodies. This paper proposes several extensions to this method to quantify the probability of failure of canal levees. These extensions include a method to account for (i) water-level regulation in canals, (ii) the effect of maintenance dredging on the geohydrological response of the canal levee and (iii) survival of loads in the past. The results of a case study demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of quantifying the probability of failure of canal levees and is useful for exploring the relative benefit of risk mitigating measures for canal levees.     

盘山山前地下水与矿泉水污染成因分析

文章利用主成分分析方法,结合揭示变量和样品之间在成因或空间上联系的对应分析,通过SPSS统计分析软件,对盘山山前地区地下水和矿泉水污染成因进行分析。研究表明,盘山山前存在地下水和矿泉水污染;局部范围的污染主要是由于食品厂等企业的排污引起的,污染成分主要是Cl-和NO3—N,主要污染地区是塔院地区,其次是西大佛塔至南营,污染程度与至污染源的距离有关;大部分地区存在三氮面状污染,农业氮肥的施用是其主要原因。     

Seismic hazard analysis for the Philippines

Two sample probabilistic hazard maps for the Philippine Region are compiled. In these are shown various levels of expected horizontal ground acceleration for some given annual probability of exceedence, namely, for 0.1% a.p.e. and for 0.01% a.p.e. Such hazard maps are needed by structural engineers for compiling seismic zoning maps. The hazard maps are derived from source-zone or seismogenic maps, which, in turn, are compiled from seismographic, geologic, and geotectonic data. Much weight is put on geotectonic data rather than on seismographic data. The former lends support to extrapolating to much longer periods of exposure time or longer periods of recurrence.     

Characterization and evaluation of the factors affecting the geochemistry of groundwater in Neyveli,Tamil Nadu,India

In order to achieve a better understanding of the nature of the factors influencing ground water composition as well as to specify them quantitatively, multivariate statistical analysis (factor analysis) were performed on the hydrochemical data of this area. R-mode factor analysis was carried out on the geochemical results of the 79-groundwater samples and the factor scores were transferred to areal maps. Fundamental chemical parameters of the groundwater have been compounded together for characterizing and interpreting a few empirical hydrogeochemical factors controlling the chemical nature of water. R-mode factor analysis reveals that the groundwater chemistry of the study area reflects the influence of anthropogenic activities, silicate weathering reactions, precipitation, dissolution and subsequent percolation into the groundwater. The data have been put into few major factors and the seasonal variation in the chemistry of water has been clearly brought out by these factors. Factor scores were transferred to contour diagrams and the factor score analysis has been used successfully to delineate the stations under study with various factors and the seasonal effect on the sample stations.     

造山带复杂结构构造区遥感-构造综合解析--以南天山东段铜花山-榆树沟地区解剖为例

通过对铜花山—榆树沟地区的解析研究,阐述了造山带复杂结构构造区遥感解析与构造解析交叉互动的优势。遥感解析以区域线状构造及由它划分的块状、片状地质体为宏观骨架(对应于构造解析划分的构造单元、构造均匀区段),以地质体中的岩体、构造岩石组合,线状、带状构造,透人性、非透人性面状(原始层理、新生面理)和褶皱等构造作为解析的结构构造要素,以造山带表壳组成和结构构造解析研究为主要内容。采用野外实测构造要素与遥感图像处理技术相结合,分解造山带不同层次、不同构造单元的物质组成和结构构造,达到解析造山带内各级各类构造及其内部构造要素之间的相互关系。     

Mineral variation in anorthositic, troctolitic, and adamellitic rocks of the Barth Island layered structure in the Nain anorthosite complex, Labrador

The Barth Island layered structure is an oval, 6 by 9 km body, consisting of rhythmically layered adamellitic rock in the center which grades outward through jotunite into troctolite. Farther outward the sequence repeats itself in reversed order, strongly reduced in magnitude and finer grained; the adamellitic zone is followed by jotunite which grades into coarse-grained leuconorite and into anorthosite of the Nain complex. The Barth Island structure, having an inverted conical base topped by a hemispherical depression, seems to represent a distorted sequence of rock layers with troctolite at the bottom, grading upward into adamellitic rocks which grade into anorthosite at the top. Trend-surface analysis demonstrates the regional variation of plagioclase and orthopyroxene compositions in the troctolite—adamellite sequence of the central part of the structure. The fits for the second- and third-degree surfaces are good and significant at the 99 percent level. The regression line for compositional variation in coexisting plagioclase and orthopyroxene in all analyzed rocks has a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.78. The difference between the trends in the troctolite—adamellite sequence and the anorthosite—adamellite sequence is insignificant. The regression curve for compositional variation in coexisting orthopyroxene and olivine has a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.98. The curve shows good correlation with the experimentally established partitioning curve of Medaris, which indicates that equilibrium conditions prevailed during formation of the olivine—ortho-pyroxene pairs. The results suggest that the troctolite—adamellite sequence and the anorthosite—adamellite sequence are products of fractional crystallization, possibly from the same parental magma.     

仿射坐标系下的因子分析—仿射因子分析

传统的因子分析以正交坐标系为其基础坐标系,因而存在某种固有缺陷。文中提出以仿射坐标系为因子分析的基础坐标系,并进而给出了仿射因子分析的方法。新方法不仅消除了原方法所存在的缺陷,同时还实现了样品和变量空间的统一。