全球大气位温的两个不等价约束及其服从Gamma分布的证明

本文对全球大气位温积分守恒和热力学总熵守恒的物理含义及其不等价性进行了讨论。认为，作为对大气热力学状态较完整的描述，应将大气热力学总熵守恒这一约束条件补入数值预报模式中去。利用最大熵原理和上述两个约束条件，在理论上对大气位温服从Gamma分布这一从实际资料中揭示出来的事实进行了证明，得到了理论与实际完全吻合的结果。     

A Concentration pdf for the Relative Dispersion of a Contaminant Plume in the Atmosphere

Observations of the dispersion of a contaminant plume in theatmospheric boundary layer, obtained using a Lidar, are analysedin a coordinate frame relative to the instantaneous centre of massof the plume. To improve the estimates of relative dispersionstatistics, maximum entropy inversion is used to remove noise fromthe Lidar concentration profiles before carrying out the analysis.A parametric form is proposed for the probability density function(pdf) of concentration, consisting of a mixture of a betadistribution and of a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD). Thispdf allows for the possibility of a unimodal or bimodaldistribution, and is shown to give a satisfactory fit toobservations from a range of positions relative to the source. Thevariation of the fitted parameters with crossplume location isanalysed, and the maximum possible concentration is found todecrease away from the plume centre.     

Analysis of Urban Atmosphere Plume Concentration Fluctuations

Concentration variability in the fast-response tracer dataset for continuous, near-surface, point source releases in the urban core from the Joint Urban 2003 field study is analyzed. Concentration variability for conditionally and unconditionally sampled time series is characterized by probability densities, concentration fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis. Significant day-night differences in plume dispersion are observed. Relative to daytime, nighttime plumes were more likely to have reduced concentration fluctuation intensities, higher normalized surface concentrations, suppressed vertical mixing, and a greater prevalence of Gaussian-like distributions rather than log-normal or mixed mode distributions. This was in spite of the similar stability and turbulence conditions in the urban core for day and night. The potential roles of flow meander and thermal stability in explaining these differences are examined. Probability densities of concentration are found to be a strong function of fluctuation intensity. There are few differences in probability densities between day and night when classified by fluctuation intensity. There are no appreciable differences between conditional and unconditional probability densities and only small differences between conditional and unconditional sampling statistics relative to the larger differences usually observed in more homogeneous settings. Fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis are higher for the daytime experiments, and closer to the source, but show little difference between conditional and unconditional results over most of their range of values. The log-normal distribution provides a better overall fit to a broader range of the dataset than the exponential or clipped-normal distributions.     

降水量Γ分布模式的普适性研究

利用2015年6月1日—7月31日三个全球数值预报业务中心(CMA、ECMWF和NCEP)的24 h降水集合预报资料和我国东南地区降水观测资料,采用贝叶斯模型平均方法(A方案)和基于A方案的统计降尺度模型二次订正方法(B方案)对上述三个中心和多模式超级集合降水预报进行订正,并对比两种方案的订正效果;然后,选取2015年8月1—31日降水预报进行独立样本检验,分析订正前后的降水预报效果。结果表明:以第50百分位的降水预报为例,经A方案订正后各中心和多模式的集合平均消除了大量的小雨空报,其对小雨、中雨的订正效果很明显,对大雨以上的降水量级订正效果不明显。随着降水阈值增加,A方案的订正效果随之减弱。此方案对雨带走向的订正不明显,会使降水大值区量级降低甚至消失。采用B方案订正后,不仅可降低原始集合预报的空报率,还可对降水量级和落区进行订正,使降水预报的范围和量级与实况更接近,但对大量级降水,如50.0 mm以上的降水量级订正效果仍然不显著。

     

北半球中层大气中NOx的垂直分布特征

对UARS卫星1992、1993、1994、1995、1996、1998年夏季的HALOE观测资料分别进行客观分析,把卫星观测资料插值到5°×5°的网格点上.并分别做了30°N和40°N多年平均NO2和NO混合比的垂直剖面分析,各年同纬度不同经度及同经度不同纬度处NO和NO2混合比的垂直分布特征分析.结果表明NO混合比含量在1hPa和l×10-5hPa高度处有两个峰值,0.1hPa处是一个极小值,50hPa到0.3hPa之间NO混合比含量非常稳定,而0.1hPa以上NO含量向上增长.在热层中的NO混合比分布有一定起伏.NO2混合比含量在l00hPa及0.5hPa高度处是极小值,从5hPa到10hPa则为最大值.但l00hPa以下进入对流层后含量急剧增加,往往会超过10-8.在平流层中NO2分布廓线基本吻合,同纬度不同经度极值出现的位置变化不大,但不同纬度极值的位置有一定差异,低纬区极值位置偏高.在中层大气中NOx(NO+NO2)和O3具有非常相似的分布特征,尤其在平流层,它们几乎在同一高度达到极值,说明它们之间有非常密切的联系.     

Probability Distribution of Summer Daily Precipitation in the Huaihe Basin of China Based on Gamma Distribution

The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin (HB) is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution.The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorologic...     

辐射报表预审中常见问题及解决办法

本文简要介绍了全球定位系统的基本原理，给出了国内外在气象应用领域的最新研究进展。GPS信号在通过大气层进行传输时会引起传输路径变化和引入附加时延，这些在定位系统中的干扰信号被气象学家作为一种新型探测手段而使用。通过精确测定GPS卫星信号，从中提取出附加延迟量，再通过一套反演理论处理，从而得到大气中的温度、压力、湿度等大气物理参数的过程，被称为GPS气象学。     

天津城区秋季PM2.5质量浓度垂直分布特征研究

为研究天津大气颗粒物的污染水平和时空分布特征,利用天津大气边界层观测铁塔(255m),分别在40m、120m、220m处设立监测点,通过监测到的PM2.5的质量浓度,结合PM10、能见度等资料来分析污染物的时空分布规律和分布特征.结果表明,天津城区PM2.5污染水平相当严重,日均质量浓度远高于美国1997年制定的65μg*m-3的排放标准.混合层厚度和稳定度的变化对PM2.5浓度变化有一定的影响,随混合层厚度的变化,不同高度PM2.5质量浓度值有所不同.23时至11时,120m浓度明显高于其它各层,11-18时,由于大气扩散能力的增强,三层污染物质量浓度开始下降,而到了18-23时,低层污染物浓度较高,各层浓度总体趋势为120m＞40m＞220m.PM2.5质量浓度的日变化与稳定度的变化较一致.气象条件和早晚出行高峰期的影响导致PM2.5的质量浓度出现峰值.PM10与PM2.5的总体变化趋势基本一致,说明污染物来源基本相同.能见度水平和细粒子污染水平呈现较好的负相关,细粒子质量浓度的高低是决定能见度好坏的主要因子.降水过程是颗粒物从大气中清除的重要机制.     

The Application of Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian Transport Scheme in a Spectral Atmosphere Model

A flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme(FFSL) was implemented in a spectral atmospheric GCM developed and used at IAP/LASG.Idealized numerical experiments show that the scheme is good at shape preserving with less dissipation and dispersion,in comparison with other conventional schemes.Importantly,FFSL can automatically maintain the positive definition of the transported tracers,which was an underlying problem in the previous spectral composite method(SCM).To comprehensively investigate the impact of FFSL on GCM results,we conducted sensitive experiments.Three main improvements resulted:first,rainfall simulation in both distribution and intensity was notably improved,which led to an improvement in precipitation frequency.Second,the dry bias in the lower troposphere was significantly reduced compared with SCM simulations.Third,according to the Taylor diagram,the FFSL scheme yields simulations that are superior to those using the SCM:a higher correlation between model output and observation data was achieved with the FFSL scheme,especially for humidity in lower troposphere.However,the moist bias in the middle and upper troposphere was more pronounced with the FFSL scheme.This bias led to an over-simulation of precipitable water in comparison with reanalysis data.Possible explanations,as well as solutions,are discussed herein.     

Richardson Number in a Moist Atmosphere and Its Application in the Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Events

To better describe the stability of a moist atmosphere,a new Richardson number,the Richardson number in a non-uniformly saturated moist atmosphere(Ri~*),is defined in this paper.Ri~* is the same as the Richardson number(Ri) except that the generalized potential temperature introduced by Gao et al.in 2004 is used to calculate the Brunt-Vaisala frequency.Then,with outputs from simulations of two heavy rainfall events,Ri~* is applied to diagnosing instabilities of rainfall areas.The results show that convec...     

The Effect of Source Distribution on Bulk Scalar Transfer between a Rough Land Surface and the Atmosphere

We investigate the effect of source distribution on the bulk transfer of passive scalars between rough, vegetated land surfaces and the atmosphere, using data from a wind-tunnel experiment in which passive heat was emitted from both the underlying surface and canopy elements of a three-dimensional regular bluff-body array. The experimental results are compared with a simple one-dimensional, two-source model for scalar transfer. We find that: (1) the observed scalar transfer resistance across the boundary layer at the underlying surface is simply related to flat-plate theory by a constant of 0.62, despite the complexity of the turbulent flow within the wind-tunnel canopy; (2) one-dimensional gradient-transfer theory, even with extensions to account for the non-local nature of turbulent transfer within the canopy, does not describe the observed details of scalar concentration gradients in the highly three-dimensional canopy flow, but does provide a reasonable framework for bulk scalar transfer between the composite ground-canopy surface and the flow above the canopy; (3) the kB ⁻¹ parameter (which accounts for bulk excess resistance to scalar transfer over momentum transfer) is highly sensitive to scalar source partition between ground and canopy.     

Experimental Measurements of Expected Mass Fraction in a Contaminant Plume

The sudden release of a quantity of gas into the atmospheric boundary layer produces a contaminant cloud. The expected mass fraction function provides a relatively simple measure of the contaminant concentration values found within the cloud and represents the ensemble-averaged fraction of the conserved release mass found at the different contaminant concentration intervals as the cloud evolves. The plume generated by a line source in grid turbulence is used to investigate the expected mass fraction function as it applies to scalar concentration values found on a typical line normal to the plume axis. Simultaneous particle image velocimetry and planar laser induced fluorescence are used to measure velocity and concentration fields, respectively. The measured expected mass fraction functions are observed to be approximately self-similar when concentration values are normalized by the centreline mean concentration. The moments of the expected mass fraction function are observed to be simply related to the centreline moments of the probability density function of scalar concentration. Arguments based on a source fluid, non-source fluid decomposition of the scalar probability density function are used to explain these observations. The results are compared with the theoretical and experimental results established for a line source of scalar in grid turbulence.     

Dispersion Modelling of the Kilauea Plume

Emissions from the Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risksto the Hawaiian community. This paper describes progress toward simulating theconcentration and dispersion of plumes of volcanic aerosol after they emanate from thePu'u O'o vent of the Kilauea volcano.In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersionof volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HY-SPLIT) model was used. Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for theHY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during a field experiment was used to validate the model simulation of aerosol distribution.The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation, and concentration gradients as deduced from satellite images of aerosol optical depth.Comparison of the modelled and observed values suggests that the model was able to produce reasonable plume concentrations and spatial gradients downwind of the source. Model concentrations were generally less than those observed on the leeward side of the Island of Hawaii. This deficiency may be explained by a lack of (i) background concentrations, (ii) local sources of pollution and/or (iii) sea-breeze circulation in the prognostic input wind field. These results represent early progress toward the goal of future operational application of the HY-SPLIT model to predict volcanic aerosol concentrations in Hawaii. This may help mitigate their negative impacts of plumes respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation.     

A Stochastic Single-Particle Lagrangian Model for the Concentration Fluctuations in a Plume Dispersing Inside an Urban Canopy

A new approach for estimating concentration fluctuations intensity in dense built-up environments using a Lagrangian stochastic (LS) particle model is described. Following past success in modelling the dynamics of concentration variance as a diffusion-advection process, the ensemble-averaged concentration variance is represented by particles that advect and diffuse throughout the computational domain. The calculation of the concentration variance is addressed by assuming an appropriate distribution of effective variance sources for a given mean concentration field. Dissipation is treated by allowing the variance carried by every particle to decay exponentially with a locally-estimated decay time. The approach has the benefit of easily handling complex boundary conditions. It can also be easily and naturally implemented as an extension to an existing LS model, which is used for mean concentration estimations. The method differs from existing two-particle methods that demand knowledge of the structure function of the flow. It is also more computationally efficient than micro-mixing approaches that involve maintaining high population levels of particles in every grid volume. The model is compared with high frequency concentration measurements, taken as part of the JU2003 (Joint Urban 2003) experiment that was carried out in Oklahoma City. Good agreement is observed.     

利用地基遥感方法监测大气中汽态、液态水含量分布特征的分析

文章根据1992～1994年4～6月间利用北京大学研制的新一代双通道共天线地基微波辐射计在河北省石家庄等地的监测资料,分析了晴空、有云无雨两种天气条件下,大气中积分汽态水、液态水含量的分布特征,两种相态大气含水量的相对分布特点。结果表明,在有云无雨的天气条件下,云中液态水积分含量仅占大气中总水量的1%,说明作为人工增雨资源条件的云中液态水含量仅占大气总水量的一小部分。因此,分析认为,以往通常采用大气中水汽含量评估人工增雨资源条件的方法,存在着不确切性。     

自适应网格在大气海洋问题中的初步应用

自适应网格法是80年代兴起的通过求解椭圆型方程的边值问题来数值生成网格的一种新方法。它是在任意形状的区域上求偏微分方程的数值解的一种非常有效的工具。该方法抛弃了等距均匀的差分网格，代之以能够自动地适应所研究问题中解的特征的疏密程度不均的曲线网格。如在边界上计算网格与实际边界相重合，在区域内部可任意调节网格点的疏密程度等。本文扼要地介绍了自适应网格的原理及其构造方法。并将其应用于生成南海区域的计算网格以及数值预报台风路径的自适应网格。     

Size-Resolved Characterisation of Soluble Ions in the Particles in the Tropospheric Plume of Masaya Volcano, Nicaragua: Origins and Plume Processing

We present the first application of a multi-stage impactor to study volcanic particle emissions to the troposphere from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Concentrations of soluble SO₄ ^2–,Cl^–, F^–, NO₃ ^–, K⁺, Na⁺,NH₄ ⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were determined in 11 size bins from 0.07 m to >25.5 m. The near-source size distributions showed major modes at 0.5m (SO₄ ^2–, H⁺,NH₄ ⁺); 0.2 m and 5.0 m (Cl^–) and 2.0–5.0 m(F^–). K⁺ and Na⁺ mirrored the SO₄ ^2– size-resolvedconcentrations closely, suggesting that these were transported primarily asK₂SO₄ and Na₂SO₄ in acidic solution, while Mg²⁺ andCa²⁺ presented modes in both <1 m and >1 m particles. Changes in relative humidity were studied by comparing daytime (transparent plume) and night-time (condensed plume) results. Enhanced particle growth rates were observed in the night-time plume as well as preferential scavenging of soluble gases, such as HCl, by condensed water. Neutralisation of the acidic aerosol by background ammonia was observed at the crater rim and to a greater extent approximately 15 km downwind of the active crater. We report measurements of re-suspended near-source volcanic dust, which may form a component of the plume downwind. Elevated levels ofSO₄ ^2–, Cl^–, F^–,H⁺, Na⁺, K⁺ and Mg²⁺ were observed around the 10 m particle diameter in this dust. The volcanic SO₄ ^2– flux leaving the craterwas 0.07 kg s^–1.     

Scaling of the Vertical Spreading of a Plume of a Passive Tracer in a Rough-Wall Neutral Boundary Layer

The influence of surface roughness on the dispersion of a passive scalar in a rough wall turbulent boundary layer has been studied using wind-tunnel experiments. The surface roughness was varied using different sizes of roughness elements, and different spacings between the elements. Vertical profiles of average concentration were measured at different distances downwind of the source, and the vertical spread of the plume was computed by fitting a double Gaussian profile to the data. An estimate of the integral length scale is derived from the turbulence characteristics of the boundary layer and is then used to scale the measured values of plume spread. This scaling reduces the variability in the data, confirming the validity of the model for the Lagrangian integral time scale, but does not remove it entirely. The scaled plume spreading shows significant differences from predictions of theoretical models both in the near and in the far field. In the region immediately downwind of the source this is due to the influence of the wake of the injector for which we have developed a simple model. In the far field we explain that the differences are mainly due to the absence of large-scale motions. Finally, further downwind of the source the scaled values of plume spread fall into two distinct groups. It is suggested that the difference between the two groups may be related to the lack of dynamical similarity between the boundary-layer flows for varying surface roughness or to biased estimates of the plume spread.