地震灾害盲场快速评估系统及其应用

震后灾害损失盲场快速评估的技术方法及其计算机软件系统可在确定地震震级、震中位置和发震时间等参数后,在人员未到地震现场的情况下,快速给出该次地震对一个区域造砀 经济损失和人员伤亡的初步评估结果。选择鲁南地震重点监视防御区为评估区域,并使用该软件系统对１９９５年９月－２０日发生在苍山的５．２级地震进行了灾害损失快速评估的实际检验。从检验结果可看出 ,用固定资产损失率矩阵计算经济损失,获得基础资料方便,     

唐山地震序列应力触发的粘弹性力学模型研究

根据前人对唐山地震破裂分布、地壳波速和粘性结构的研究,考虑局部应力场、孔隙流体压力和断层附近软介质的影响,计算了唐山地震产生的,投影到后续大余震断层面和滑动方向上的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明,随后发生的滦县地震和宁河地震均发生在唐山地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化为正的区域。为研究唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震对后续小震的触发作用,根据前人对该地区构造应力场和地震破裂分布的研究,假定构造应力量值为10 MPa,求得了震源附近各处可能的小震震源机制。将上述3次地震产生的应力变化投影到可能的小震破裂面和滑动方向上,发现唐山地震、滦县地震和宁河地震产生的正库仑破裂应力变化的ldquo;蝴蝶rdquo;形分布与后续小震发生的空间分布具有较好的一致性,95%的余震发生在库仑破裂应力变化增加的区域,说明唐山地震序列中前面的大震对后续小震的发生起到了调制作用。该研究结果对大震后余震的危险性快速评估具有一定意义。如果大地震发生后能够快速确定详细的破裂分布和震源区域详细断层及滑动特性资料,本文方法可用来预测未来大余震的发震位置。      

液化识别方法盲测对比——以2011年2月22日新西兰6.3级地震为例

液化实时监测作为减轻地震灾害的新手段,其核心技术是建立依据强震记录识别场地液化的方法,但目前所提出的方法十分有限,可靠性也缺少实际地震检验.2011年新西兰地震中液化及其震害现象显著,为检验现有液化识别方法提供了条件.目前已有并可供程使用的四种液化识别方法为:Miyajima法、Suzuki法、KY法(Kostadin...     

地震前后唐山地震台地形变数据频谱特征分析

该文以唐山地震台1984年以来的地形变数据为研究对象,对其用自回归模型分析后,采用Daniell滑动窗得到其频谱.通过唐山地方震(ML≥5.0)与华北强震(ML≥6.0)前后自回归阶数变化的对比,表明基线的自回归阶数在震前较大,震后变小.水准数据除了在1995年唐山地震的例子中,也有类似的特征.频谱分析也表明,唐山地震台形变数据中反映的周期在2～11天之间.震前的谱成分多于震后的谱成分,基线的频谱变化较水准的频谱变化显著.     

场地PGA放大系数与场地特征参数相关性及地震动快速评估方法研究

场地地震动PGA放大系数是重大工程地震预警、烈度速报技术及结构抗震设计地震动输入的基础。搜集整理日本Kik-net台网239个Ⅱ场地台站的地震记录,以场地覆盖层厚度D、场地特征周期T、场地v_(s30)以及场地等效剪切波速v_(se)为场地特征参数,以井下记录PGA为地震动强度指标,研究场地PGA放大系数F_(PGA)与场地特征参数之间的相关性;以地表PGA值40 Gal作为预警阈值,采用回归决策树CART方法建立了地震预警的特征参数组合标准。分析结果表明:场地F_(PGA)与场地覆盖层厚度D及场地特征周期T负相关,与场地vs30正相关,与vse相关性可忽略;F_(PGA)与场地特征参数的相关性随着场地地震动强度增大而增大;通过搜集的地震数据对基于CART分类方法建立的场地地震动预警参数指标进行回判检验,检验的总体成功率达到90.09%,其中不预警的成功率为93.64%,预警成功率82.68%。虽然地震动快速评估方法总体成功率达到90%以上,但仍存在5.61%偏于危险的"漏判",所以本文方法仍需要进一步的改进和完善。     

雄安新区地震危险性评估

地震危险性评估对确定工程抗震设防等级、制定城市规划与减轻地震灾害等具有重要意义.由于传统分析方法存在诸多缺陷,用其对特定区域进行地震危险性评估可靠性差.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了利用岩石破裂自相似性预测研究区标志性预震的方法,并进而创立了一种以地震物理预测为基础的地震危险性评估新方法.雄安新区位于唐山地震区内,近邻运城地震区.基于唐山和运城地震区地震趋势分析结果及主要断裂展布与雄安新区位置关系,在唐山地震区内划分了保定研究区,在运城地震区内划分了行唐和十渡研究区.采用上述方法,预测了这三个区将发生的较大预震.根据某些学者提出的地震烈度经验公式,评估了唐山地震区发生标志性地震、预震及运城地震区发生预震导致的雄安新区地震烈度.结果表明,未来50年内,雄安新区抗震设防烈度从原7度调整为8度为宜.     

标贯法对巴楚地震液化场地适用性及误判原因分析

以2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师地区液化调查为基础。检验国内外现有以标准贯入击数试验为指标的液化判别方法的适用性,包括我国规范液化判别方法和Seed-Idriss方法。检验结果表明,我国规范和Seed-Idriss方法在对巴楚地震液化场地判别成功率较低,总体成功率均为66%,非液化场地的判别成功率分别为85%和84%,但对液化场地判别成功率仅为43%和48%,明显偏于危险。原因可能是标贯形成数据主要来源其它地区而巴楚地区砂土与之差异较大所致,值得深入研究。     

岩石圈结构对大地震震后形变的影响——以1976年唐山大地震和2001年昆仑山大地震为例

大地震发生之后通常会诱发一系列的余震序列,对比1976年M_S7.8唐山大地震和2001年M_S8.1昆仑山大地震周边区域的地震事件可以看出,唐山大地震余震活动时间要明显长于昆仑山大地震余震活动时间.余震序列往往与震后形变密切相关,而影响震后形变的因素不仅与地震发震断层和震级有关,同时与岩石圈的结构有关.考虑到唐山大地震的发震区华北地块和昆仑山大地震的发震区青藏高原有着较大的岩石圈结构差异,本文采用PSGRN/PSCMP软件计算了岩石圈分层模型的大地震同震和震后形变,分析了地壳弹性模量、弹性厚度以及黏滞性系数对同震和震后形变的影响,进而讨论了影响唐山地震和昆仑山地震余震序列差异的原因.计算结果显示,震后形变会在黏弹性效应的作用下逐渐调整,震后形变的持续时间与地壳弹性模量、地壳弹性厚度和下地壳黏滞性系数有关.上地壳和下地壳弹性模量越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越短,弹性模量对震后形变稳定值影响很小.地壳弹性厚度越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越短,当断层面底端深度小于地壳弹性厚度时,地壳弹性厚度的增加会引起震后形变稳定值的减小;下地壳厚度对震后形变达到稳定值的时间和稳定值基本无影响.下地壳黏滞性系数越大,震后形变达到稳定值的时间越长,反之亦然.结合唐山地震区的华北地块和昆仑山地震的青藏高原深部结构发现,两者之间的上地壳弹性模型差别不大,唐山地震区地壳弹性厚度略大于昆仑山地震区,但昆仑山地震区下地壳黏滞性系数明显低于唐山地震区.这些因素均决定了昆仑山地震的震后形变持续时间短（余震时间序列短）而唐山地震的震后形变持续时间长（余震时间序列长）.由此可见,岩石圈结构差异可能是导致唐山地震和昆仑山地震余震序列差异的主要因素之一.     

唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析

运用震后航空像片抽样统计了唐山地震的房屋倒塌率,分析了造成人员伤亡的主要原因是房屋毁坏。据此,建立了地震人员伤亡率与房倒率的回归方程,该方程可用于震前人员伤亡预测和震后快速粗估     

2021年青海玛多MW7.3地震同震和早期震后断层滑动模型及发震构造摩擦属性

地震同震和早期震后断层滑动是研究发震断层深浅部孕震形态及摩擦性质的重要手段.本文基于雷达干涉测量(InSAR)数据获得了玛多地震同震和早期震后形变场,并反演得到了发震断层的滑动分布模型.研究结果表明同震滑动主要分布在上地壳浅部,并且存在多个滑动亏损区域.发震断层在东端分叉处的倾向与主断裂和西端倾向相反.基于N-SBAS方法获得的震后4.5个月形变场显示,断层近场震中区域的累积形变量达5 cm,远场区域累积形变达2 cm.震后早期余滑分布在断层浅部和深部以及两侧的横向延展区域;部分余滑区域与同震区域重叠.其中,上地壳浅部的余滑达20 cm且填充了同震滑动亏损.时序地震矩显示上地壳浅部区域在震后快速余滑而深部稳定滑动,表明了发震断层区域的复杂摩擦属性.     

Liquefaction assessments using seismic piezocone penetration (SCPTU) test investigations in Tangshan region in China

Shear wave velocity (V_s) measurements from seismic piezocone penetration (SCPTU) soundings have been increasingly used for site characterization and liquefaction potential assessments. Several sites in Tangshan region, China liquefied during the Tangshan earthquake, M_w=7.8 in 1976 and these sites were characterized recently using the SCPTU device. Other sites in the same region where liquefaction was not observed are also included in the present field investigations. Three liquefaction assessment models-based on measured shear wave velocity, shear modulus and tip resistance parameters of SCPTU are evaluated in this paper for their accurate predictions of liquefaction or non-liquefaction at the test sites. Analyses showed that the shear wave velocity—liquefaction resistance model with normalized overburden vertical stress have yielded a success rate of 78% in predicting liquefied site cases and another similar approach with mean stress based normalization has a success rate of 67%. The correlation of q_c/G_o-CRR_7.5 based on geological age has correctly assessed the liquefaction potential at most sites considered in this research. Overall, all three models based on shear wave velocity, shear modulus and cone tip resistance are proven valuable in the assessments of liquefaction at the present test sites in the Tangshan region.     

地震时砂土液化的数理统计预测

1976年唐山地震期间,附近一些地区出现了砂土液化现象。本文根据工程勘探中的实例及实验数据,进行了砂土液化作用的统计和综合预测。文章中采用贝叶斯准则下的逐步判别分析方法,对唐山地区已知液化地点和非液化地点,作了五种检验计算,挑选出准确度及可靠性最高的变量模式。从而,对于当地震为Ⅷ度烈度时的砂土液化进行了预测。五种预测结果相同,互相印证,可靠性高,分组最大后验概率大多在0.99以上。在此条件下,外推预测结果可信。工程实践中,迫切需要对砂土液化进行综合性预测,而一般采用地质学或试验方法,仅能对砂土液化作单因素或少量因素下的预测,本文提出了综合性的通用预测方法,为砂土液化统计预测提供了新途径。砂土液化是平原地区的一种重要地震灾害。国内外多次大地震中,都曾因饱水砂土受到地震作用,引起孔隙水压增高及砂粒间的结合力和摩擦力降低,而使砂层发生液化状态的流动,并伴随有地基承载能力降低或失效。1964年以来,新潟地震及阿拉斯加地震时,由砂土液化造成了罕见的灾害。激发了各国、尤其是美国和日本对砂土液化预测的研究。但还多是单因素或少量因素影响下的分析方法。未能进行综合分析及推断。采用数理统计方法,可以综合分     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test using multi-gene genetic programming model

This paper discusses the evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil based on standard penetration test (SPT) dataset using evolutionary artificial intelligence technique, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). The liquefaction classification accuracy (94.19%) of the developed liquefaction index (LI) model is found to be better than that of available artificial neural network (ANN) model (88.37%) and at par with the available support vector machine (SVM) model (94.19%) on the basis of the testing data. Further, an empirical equation is presented using MGGP to approximate the unknown limit state function representing the cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) of soil based on developed LI model. Using an independent database of 227 cases, the overall rates of successful prediction of occurrence of liquefaction and non-liquefaction are found to be 87, 86, and 84% by the developed MGGP based model, available ANN and the statistical models, respectively, on the basis of calculated factor of safety (F _s ) against the liquefaction occurrence.     

Evaluation of CPT-based Liquefaction Procedures at Regional Scale

The liquefaction database describing the response of the Christchurch area in the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) provides a unique basis for evaluating the regional application of various liquefaction analysis procedures, from liquefaction triggering analyses through to liquefaction vulnerability parameters. This database was used to compare the Robertson and Wride [17], Moss et al. [15] and Idriss and Boulanger [7] liquefaction triggering procedures as well as evaluate the impact of the 2014 versus 2008 Cone Penetration Test (CPT)-based liquefaction triggering procedure by Idriss and Boulanger on four liquefaction vulnerability parameters (S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN), the correlation of those parameters with observed liquefaction-induced damage patterns in the CES, and the mapping of expected damage levels for 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions in Christchurch. The effects on S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN were small relative to other sources of variability for the majority of the affected areas, particularly where liquefaction was clearly severe or clearly not. Nonetheless, considering the separation of the land damage populations as well as consistency between the events, the the IB-2008 liquefaction triggering procedures appears to give a slightly better fit to the mapped liquefaction-induced land damage for the regional prediction of liquefaction vulnerability for the Christchurch soils. The Boulanger and Idriss [1] triggering procedure produces improved agreement between the liquefaction vulnerability parameters and observations of damage for: areas south of the Central Business District (CBD) where there tends to be higher soil Fines Content (FC), and localized areas that experienced liquefaction during the smaller Magnitude (M) earthquake events. Implementation of the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure for mapping of expected liquefaction-induced damage at 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions is shown to require use of representative Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)-M values consistent with the de-aggregation of the seismic hazard. Use of equivalent magnitude-scaled PGA-M7.5 pairs, where the equivalency relates to previously published MSF relationships, with the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure is shown to be unconservative for certain situations.     

Liquefaction macrophenomena in the great Wenchuan earthquake

On May 12, 2008 at 14:28, a catastrophic magnitude M 8.0 earthquake struck the Sichuan Province of China.The epicenter was located at Wenchuan (31.00°N, 103.40°E). Liquefaction macrophenomena and corresponding destruction was observed throughout a vast area of 500 km long and 200 km wide following the earthquake. This paper illustrates the geographic distribution of the liquefaction and the relationship between liquefaction behavior and seismic intensity, and summarizes the liquefaction macrophenomena, including sandboils and waterspouts, ground subsidence, ground fissures etc., and relevant liquefaction features. A brief summary of the structural damage caused by liquefaction is presented and discussed. Based on comparisons with liquefaction phenomena observed in the 1976 Tangshan and 1975 Haicheng earthquakes, preliminary analyses were performed, which revealed some new features of liquefaction behavior and associated issues arising from this event. The site investigation indicated that the spatial non-uniformity of liquefaction distribution was obvious and most of the liquefied sites were located in regions of seismic intensity Ⅷ. However, liquefaction phenomena at ten different sites in regions of seismic intensity Ⅵ were also observed for the first time in China mainland. Sandboils and waterspouts ranged from centimeters to tens of meters, with most between 1 m to 3 m. Dramatically high water/sand ejections,e.g., more than 10 m, were observed at four different sites. The sand ejections included silty sand, fine sand, medium sand,course sand and gravel, but the ejected sand amount was less than that in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Possible liquefaction of natural gravel soils was observed for the first time in China mainland.     

唐山大地震近场宽频带地震动模拟

基于唐山地区大量的钻孔和波速测量等资料以及京津唐地区地壳结构模型,建立了唐山地区三维地下速度结构模型.利用宽频带地震动模拟方法模拟了 1976年唐山大地震的近场地震动,给出了极震区加速度时程和反应谱,并与烈度分布以及其他研究结果进行比对,本研究可为唐山市防震减灾提供参考.     

可液化倾斜场地中桩基动力响应振动台试验研究

为研究倾斜场地中桩基的动力响应,以2011年新西兰地震中受损的Dallington桥为原型,设计并完成可液化倾斜场地桥梁桩-土相互作用的振动台模型试验。试验再现了喷砂、冒水、地裂缝、场地流滑等宏观现象。试验结果表明,土层足够的液化势及惯性是造成倾斜场地侧向流滑的必要条件;浅层土相比深层土更易液化,液化层中的加速度由下至上呈现逐渐衰减的趋势,而未液化砂土层却表现为逐渐增大的特征;深部测点的桩侧土压力明显大于浅部测点,且土体的液化会弱化土对结构的压力;结构应变最大值位于上部桥台,而结构弯矩在桩身中部及土层分界面附近出现两个较大值,桩端嵌固及倾斜场地流滑是造成出现两个弯矩较大值的主要原因。     

利用qc,D50评价砂土地震液化势研究

本文根据国内外地震液化调查资料，建立了利用双桥静力触探锥头阻力ｑｃ和平均粒径Ｄ５０判别地震液化势的半经验性方法。这种方法对评价地震液化势是颇为有效的。     

Assessment of soil liquefaction incorporating earthquake characteristics

This paper investigates the effect of nature of the earthquake on the assessment of liquefaction potential of a soil deposit during earthquake loading. Here, the nature of the earthquake is included via the parameter V, the ‘pseudo-velocity’, that is the gross area under the acceleration record of the earthquake at any depth below the ground surface. By analysing a number of earthquake records from different parts of the world, a simple method has been outlined to assess the liquefaction potential of a soil deposit based on the pseudo-velocity. For many earthquakes occurred in the past, acceleration records are available or can be computed at the ground level or some other depth below the ground surface. Therefore, this method is a useful tool at the preliminary design stage to determine the liquefaction potential before going into a detailed analysis. Validation of the method is carried out using a database of case histories consisting of standard penetration test values, acceleration records at the ground surface and field observations of liquefaction/non-liquefaction. It can be seen that the proposed method has the ability to predict soil liquefaction potential accurately, despite its simplicity.     

Threshold seismic energy and liquefaction distance limit during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Estimating the possible region of liquefaction occurrence during a strong earthquake is highly valuable for economy loss estimation, reconnaissance efforts and site investigations after the event. This study identified and compiled a large amount of liquefaction case histories from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China, to investigate the relationship between the attenuation of seismic wave energy and liquefaction distance limit during this earthquake. Firstly, we introduced the concept of energy absorption ratio, which is defined as the absorbed energy of soil divided by the imparted energy of seismic waves at a given site, and the relationship between the energy absorption ratio and the material damping ratio was established based on shear stress–strain loop of soil element and the seismic wave propagation process from the source to the site. Secondly, the threshold imparted seismic energy of liquefaction was obtained based on existing researches of absorbed energy required to trigger liquefaction of sandy soils and the ground motion attenuation characteristics of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the liquefaction distance limit of this earthquake was estimated according to the proposed magnitude–energy–distance relationship. Finally, the field liquefaction database of 209 sites of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was used to validate such an estimation, and the field observed threshold imparted seismic energy to cause liquefaction in recent major earthquakes worldwide was back-analyzed to check the predictability of the present method, and several possible mechanisms were discussed to explain the discrepancy between the field observations and the theoretical predictions. This study indicates that seismic energy attenuation and liquefaction distance limit are regional specific and earthquake dependent, and 382 J/m³ is the average level of threshold imparted seismic energy to cause liquefaction for loose saturated sandy soils, and the corresponding liquefaction distance limit is approximately 87.4 km in fault distance for a M_w?=?7.9 event in the Chengdu Plain. The proposed regional energy attenuation model and threshold imparted seismic energy may be considered as an approximate tool in evaluating the liquefaction hazard during potential earthquakes in this area.