工业开采诱发地震（二）:监测技术和危险性研究

随着页岩气和地热等能源开采过程中可能诱发地震并造成灾害等问题的关注度的提高,及时总结分析国际上已经实施开展的针对可能的诱发地震的监测、危险性分析、风险评价和风险管理工作,对有针对性地预防和减轻此类地震灾害、实现有效的社会治理等均具有重要意义。本文重点对国际上公开发表的学术出版物进行了调研,对目前已有的针对可能的诱发地震的监测系统建设、地震危险性分析和风险评价、风险管理等方面的研究和工作进行了归纳,以期为诱发地震减灾工作提供参考。      

工业开采诱发地震（一）:发生机理和影响因素

对工业开采诱发地震的机理及其影响因素的研究,为解决社会上对工业开采诱发地震的各种争议,以及有针对性地开展诱发地震的预防、危险性评价、减灾行动、政策制定等方面具有重要意义。本文系统地整理了目前国际上对工业开采诱发地震的成因机理的主要认识和分歧,梳理了影响诱发地震产生的主要因素,以及涉及此类问题的主要研究方式,并介绍了基于上述认识建立的可能的减灾方式,试图为开展此类机理研究和推进减轻破坏性诱发地震灾害提供一定的科学参考。      

7 诱发地震

诱发地震为第六专题,共征集论文9篇,数量较少.然而,诱发地震研究,尤其是水库诱发地震研究是大会主持单位印度国家地球物理研究所(NGRI)的强项,所以倍受大会重视.大会主席NGRI的所长H.K.Gupta在开幕式后的特邀报告中,花了近一半时间讲述了世界闻名的印度柯依纳水库诱发地震的30年研究历史和近期的研究成果.     

由“诱发地震与地震诱发”谈起

在地震预报的实践中,常提到望朔对地震的诱发作用,于是有人把这种与望朔有关的地震也归于诱发地震之列。这是不对的。任何一个名词术语都有固定涵义。诱发地震,据胡毓良先生定义,应为“由于人类工程活动引起的地震”。这些人类活动,包括水库、油田、煤田、采矿、核爆、开洞等。因此,望朔等自然因素诱发的地震不应划入这一领域。研究诱发地震,是地震部门直接为国民经济服务的重要方面。陈章立付局长最近曾就地     

注水诱发地震

由于人们对工业活动会引发破坏性地震的关注,那些发生在特殊地点的地震已成为北美和欧洲科学界讨论的一个热点问题。水库蓄水、露天和地下采矿活动、地下水流体和天然气的抽取以及向地下岩层注入流体等都可能诱发地震活动,这一点早为人们所了解。注水诱发地震,尤其是在将水压致裂法应用到致密页岩层来提高之前贫油岩层的石油和天然气产量之后,越来越变成一个讨论的焦点。用水压致裂法提高致密页岩层油气产量这一过程,以及与提高产量和生产活动有关的废水处理等都有可能会诱发地震。本文回顾分析了最近发生的一些可能与工业活动有关的地震活动,重点分析了深井注废水处理引发的地震活动,科学评估注水诱发地震,并讨论了评估灾害危险性所面临的关键科学挑战。     

共和地震的诱发机制与水库诱发地震的研究

本文通过对龙羊峡水库蓄水使共和盆地应力、重力等条件改变的讨论，认为：共和地震的形成和发生与龙羊峡水库蓄水有密切的关联，在将共和地震与水库诱发地震的特征进行了比较后，发现共和地震所表现出来的特征与水库诱发地震特征极其相似，进而提出共和地震应属水库诱发地震的范畴。     

地震力学（上）

1 引言地震是由构造应力引起的在地壳和地幔中的一种突然的破裂过程。为了解地震的物理学,确定在地震发生前、发生时及发生后各个阶段应力状态是非常重要的。在最近的几十年里,在地震学方面取得了重大进展,地震断层带附近应力状态的细节也变得越来越清楚。然而,应力状态一般来说是由在复杂结构传播的地震波间接地推算而来。由此确定的应力参数依赖于     

Geotomographic imaging in the study of mining induced seismicity

Geotomographic imaging is a technique which allows seismic waves to be used to gain information about the internal structure of rock masses, in a way conceptually similar to medical CAT scanning. Traditional approaches to the study of mining-induced seismic phenomena have concentrated on using passive monitoring methods. This paper gives an overview of the developments in the acquisition, processing and interpretation of geotomographic data and outlines how images can be used in conjunction with passive techniques to study mining-induced seismicity.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal 1987.     

Quantitative studies of global seismicity (2)

In this paper, the seismicity indexes of global earthquakesM ≥ 6 during 1964–1983 were calculated, using data of ISC and USGS. The authors suggested a method suitable to make a set of regression formulas betweenm _bandM _s. Calculation showed that the level of global seismicity of shallow earthquakes during the years 1964–1965, 1968, 1971, 1975–1976 was higher than normal, especially the peak for the years 1975–1976 was more conspicuous. The year 1984 took the place of the year 1954 in the 20th century as the year of lowest global shallow focus seismicity. According to the actual value ofA(b) calculated, the level of deep focus seismicity reached the highest point in 1971 and dropped to the lowest point in 1977. In the time interval of 1977–1983 the global shallow focus seismicity decreased continuously whereas the deep focus seismicity increased with fluctuations.     

Induced seismicity in the Khibiny Massif (Kola Peninsula)

The topic of this paper is to review recent processes of increasing seismic activity in the Khibiny Massif in the Kcla Peninsula. It is a typical example of induced seismicity caused by rock deformation due to the extraction of more than 2·10⁹ tons of rock mass since the mid-1960s. The dependence of seismic activity on the amount of extracted ore is demonstrated. Some of the induced earthquakes coincide with large mining explosions, thus indicating a trigger mechanism. The largest earthquake, which occurred on 16 April 1989 (M _L= 4.1) could be traced along the surface for 1200 m and observed to a depth of at least 220 m. The maximum measured displacement was 15–20 cm.     

Space-time interaction amongst clusters of mining induced seismicity

Elementary cluster analysis of induced seismicity in a South African gold mine has shown that there is a clear interaction amongst the clusters; and that the level of the interaction is a function of the distance. The clusering algorithm used is an adaptation of the single-link cluster analysis which considers both three-dimensional space and time. A high level of interaction between the clusters is demonstrated from the cross-correlation analysis of seismic activity rates and radiated energy. A distinct decrease in the value of correlation coefficients was detectable as distance increased. This was somewhat surprising, considering the simplicity of the technique used. Since no attempt is made to study the physical mechanisms of interaction, these results are very preliminary, but interesting from an observational point of view.     

水库诱发地震研究的历史、现状与发展趋势

简要回顾了水库诱发地震(RIS)研究的历史。从诱震库区的地质构造条件、水库蓄水诱震机理的数学物理模型、水库诱发地震的地震学、水库诱发地层危险性评价的理论和方法四个方面，介绍了水库诱发地震研究过程中各阶段所取得的重要认识。指出了目前水库诱发地震研究中存在的主要问题。提出以岩体结构控制论为理论基础，重视库区岩体结构、水文地质结构研究以取得诱震环境模型的发展与创新，以非均质各向异性介质环境流固耦合数值模拟为手段，以取得诱震机理认识的深化，是未来水库诱发地层研究的发展趋势。     

Precursory signatures in the visibility graph analysis of seismicity: An application to the Kachchh (Western India) seismicity

The Visibility Graph (VG) method maps time series into networks or graphs, converting dynamical properties of time series in topological properties of networks. The VG method was applied to the aftershock depleted catalogue of the Kachchh Gujarat (Western India) seismicity from 2003 to 2012, in order to identify possible precursory signatures in the pattern of the VG parameters. The k–M slope (the slope of the line fitting the relationship between the magnitude of the events and their connectivity degrees) seems to sharply increase significantly before the occurrence of the largest shocks (M ⩾ 4.5) of the sequence.     

Comparison of surface and borehole locations of induced seismicity

Monitoring of induced microseismic events has become an important tool in hydraulic fracture diagnostics and understanding fractured reservoirs in general. We compare microseismic event and their uncertainties using data sets obtained with surface and downhole arrays of receivers. We first model the uncertainties to understand the effect of different acquisition geometries on location accuracy. For a vertical array of receivers in a single monitoring borehole, we find that the largest part of the final location uncertainty is related to estimation of the backazimuth. This is followed by uncertainty in the vertical position and radial distance from the receivers. For surface monitoring, the largest uncertainty lies in the vertical position due to the use of only a single phase (usually P‐wave) in the estimation of the event location. In surface monitoring results, lateral positions are estimated robustly and are not sensitive to the velocity model. In this case study, we compare event location solutions from two catalogues of microseismic events; one from a downhole array and the second from a surface array of 1C geophone. Our results show that origin time can be reliably used to find matching events between the downhole and surface catalogues. The locations of the corresponding events display a systematic shift consistent with a poorly calibrated velocity model for downhole dataset. For this case study, locations derived from surface monitoring have less scatter in both vertical and horizontal directions.     

白鹤滩水库诱发地震活动性特征浅析

1 研究背景 白鹤滩水电站是迄今为止我国最大水电站,其位于四川省宁南县和云南省巧家县境内,是金沙江下游干流河段梯级开发的第二个梯级水电站,具有以发电为主,兼有防洪、拦沙、改善下游航运条件和发展库区通航等综合效益.2021年4月,白鹤滩水库开始蓄水,正常蓄水最高水位可达825 m;2021年5月31日,白鹤滩水电站入选世界前12大水电站;2021年6月28日,白鹤滩水电站正式投产发电.     

Present-day seismicity of the south-eastern Elbe Fault System (NE Bohemian Massif)

The Variscan Bohemian Massif is disrupted by the NW-SE striking Elbe Fault System in its northern part. The increased tectonic activity associated with this structure is manifested by increased seismicity in the eastern part of the Sudetes. With the use of a temporary local seismic network, the total number of micro-earthquakes located in this region increased to 153 for the period 1996–2003. The local magnitudes vary between −0.6 and 1.8 and the seismic energy was often released in swarm-like sequences. Five seismic events with well-defined P-onset polarities at five or six stations enabled the estimation of focal mechanisms. The present-day activity of the WNW-ESE to NNW-SSE fault systems is discussed on the basis of source mechanisms, the alignment of the epicentres, as well as morphological and geological evidence. The majority of the recent seismic activity is concentrated in a 40–60 km wide zone of a generally NW-SE trend. This structure represents a regional zone of weakness within the SE termination of the Elbe Fault System, defined by a mesh of interconnected faults, of which many are deep-seated and highly permeable and some are associated with light to moderate historical earthquakes. Both in the areas due south and due north of this zone the present-day seismic activity is very low. The increased tectonic activity can be interpreted as a result of the abundance of suitably oriented faults and their interconnection into major fault systems, the proximity of the Outer Carpathian indentor and the Cainozoic volcanic and associated recent post-volcanic activity. The similar character of swarms and their coincidence with the post-volcanic activity in the southeastern part of the Elbe Fault System and in some focal zones of the western Bohemian seismically active area suggests that overpressurized fluids may represent a potential swarm-triggering mechanism.