多年冻土区森林大火对生态服务功能的影响研究

在气候变暖背景下,大兴安岭森林大火导致多年冻土退化,植被发生更新和演替,对森林生态系统服务功能造成重要影响。文中选取大兴安岭北部多年冻土区满归和阿龙山火烧区为研究对象,通过定量方法计算了林火后,固碳释氧效益损失;净化环境效益损失,包括吸收SO₂和粉尘净化价值;水文效益损失,包括防洪和涵养水源效益;小气候效益损失;保护野生生物以及游憩效益损失。研究发现,满归和阿龙山火烧后,生态系统服务效益损失重大。其中,固碳释氧效益和净化环境效益损失较大,分别占总效益损失的42.34%和41.94%;水文效益和保护野生生物效益损失较小,分别为2.82%和0.80%;小气候效益和游憩效益居中,分别占8.61%和3.49%。即使针叶林生态系统恢复到阔叶林生态系统,净化环境效益损失仍然可达69.3%。由此看来,保护多年冻土区的针叶林,减少森林火灾的发生对维持多年冻土区森林生态系统的稳定性和可持续发展至关重要。     

青藏高原多年冻土监测及近期变化

对1995－2004年青藏高原多年冻土温度监测资料进行分析,结果表明：在全球气候变暖影响下,近10年来多年冻土发生了显著的变化,活动层厚度有明显的增大趋势,且高温多年冻土区活动层厚度增大趋势大于低温多年冻土区。多年冻土上限温度和6 m深度多年冻土温度均有明显的升温趋势,低温多年冻土区升温速率要大于高温多年冻土。青藏高原多年冻土变化对气候变暖有明显的响应关系。     

黑龙江省季节冻土形成发育规律及特征

在黑龙江省均有季节冻结和季节融化现象发生，多年冻土区有季节融化层，季节冻结层主要分布在多年冻土区以外的地区。按季节冻结类型可把黑龙江省季节冻土分为过渡型、半过渡型、长期稳定型和稳定型等类型。季节冻结和融化深度在年际间有很大的差异，在多年冻土区南界附近，季节冻深年际间变化最大。土季节冻结和融化的影响因素主要有雪盖、植被、土壤成分及含水量、地表状况和地形等。     

冻融作用对大兴安岭多年冻土区泥炭地土壤有机碳矿化的影响研究

冻融循环是影响土壤碳氮生物地球化学过程较为重要的因素。在全球变化背景下,冻融作用对冻土区土壤碳库稳定性及其关键生物地球化学过程影响研究是当前国际热点,尤其是冻融作用影响下多年冻土区泥炭地土壤有机碳矿化研究目前仍未明确。选取我国大兴安岭多年冻土区泥炭地表层（0~15 cm）和深层（15~30 cm）土壤,采用冻融试验及室内培养方法,探索分析了冻融作用影响下泥炭地土壤有机碳矿化特征,并从土壤活性碳和土壤酶活性角度阐述了影响机制。结果表明在短期的培养中,土壤有机碳矿化量在483~2836 mg/kg间波动,而冻融循环均显著降低了表层和深层土壤有机碳矿化量,并且对深层土壤有机碳的矿化抑制作用更为明显,高达76%。值得注意的是,冻融循环却明显促进了CH₄的排放,尤其是表层土壤,高达145%。冻融循环作用也显著增加了土壤可溶性有机碳（DOC）含量,但却降低了土壤微生物量碳（MBC）以及土壤纤维素酶、淀粉酶和蔗糖酶活性。冻融作用下低的土壤酶活性以及相对低质量碳是抑制土壤有机碳矿化的原因。全球变暖背景下,与单纯温度增加所导致的土壤有机碳矿化释放量相比,冻融循环作用能降低大兴安岭泥炭地活动层中土壤有机碳在短期内碳的释放。     

多年冻土对青藏高原草地生态承载力的贡献研究

草地生态系统是一个复杂的社会、经济、生态系统,多年冻土作为高寒草地生态系统结构和功能维系的重要因素,是客观刻画高寒草地生态承载力不容忽视的重要方面。文中采用结构动力学方法,从草地质量、草地干预、草地潜力、草地压力4个维度建立高寒草地生态承载力结构动力学模型,分析青藏高原多年冻土区草地生态承载力的变化以及主要结构要素,量化多年冻土变化对青藏高原高寒草地生态承载力的贡献率,结果表明：(1)多年冻土区草地生态承载力呈增加趋势,尤其是1998年以后上升显著,这主要归因于草地生长季节降水增加、气温升高、净初级生产力增幅驱动以及生态保护工程建设的共同作用。(2)多年冻土活动层厚度变化与草地生态承载力呈负相关,多年冻土活动层厚度对草地生态承载力的贡献率约为10%,即多年冻土活动层厚度每增加1个单位,将导致草地生态承载力下降0.1个单位。由于青藏高原空间差异显著,加之气候变化的不确定性,这一贡献水平只是一个粗略的参照值。     

青藏铁路适应气候变化的筑路工程技术

 气候变化对高温高含冰量冻土影响显著，因此，青藏铁路穿越多年冻土地区的筑路工程设计必须考虑未来气候变化的影响。为了减缓、适应气候变化的影响，解决高温高含冰量路基稳定性问题，修建青藏铁路时提出了冷却路基、降低多年冻土温度的设计新思想。该筑路工程技术通过采用调控热的传导、辐射和对流以及综合调控措施达到降低多年冻土温度、适应气候变化的目的，最大限度地确保多年冻土区路基的稳定性。     

ERA-Interim地表温度资料在青藏高原多年冻土区的适用性

地表温度综合反映了大气和地表植被、土壤等局地因素相互作用的能量交换状况,是许多冻土分布模型和寒区陆面过程模式的上边界条件,对多年冻土分布和活动层厚度估算具有重要意义。为了检验ERA-Interim再分析地表温度资料在青藏高原(下称高原)多年冻土区的适用性,综合比较了2011年1月1日至2012年12月31日期间高原不同类型多年冻土区3个综合观测场的观测地表温度和ERA-Interim再分析资料之间的偏差、均方差、相关系数、解释方差、均方根误差和平均绝对误差。结果表明,ERA-Interim再分析资料能较好地再现高原多年冻土区3个综合观测场地表温度的基本特征,并能较好地描述高原地表温度的季节变化。但ERA-Interim再分析年平均地表温度比观测值偏低,西大滩、五道梁和唐古拉站依次偏低1.7,1.0和0.9℃;地表温度的再分析值和观测值之间的相关系数和解释方差都较高,均方差也相近。ERA-Interim再分析地表温度资料对观测站点相对稀少且空间分布不均匀的高原多年冻土区具有较好的适用性,可以作为地表温度的有效代用资料。     

大兴安岭火区上空云和降水微物理结构特征个例研究

1987年5月24日云物理专业考查飞机对大兴安岭火区上空的云进行了水平观测。对此次观测结果的分析与研究表明:(1)来自空间状及空间技状区域的冰粒子(25—800μm)及降水粒子(200—6400μm)平均浓度较高;而来自枝状及枝星状区域的冰和降水粒子其平均浓度较低。(2)依据不同降水粒子形态所计算出的降雪强度以空间枝状为最大。     

多年冻土区土壤蒸散发对气候变化的敏感性分析

由于不同区域蒸散发对气候变化的敏感性各不相同,为摸清多年冻土活动层陆面过程中冻土-气候变化-水文循环之间的相互关系,选择青藏高原风火山区域的典型多年冻土区,依据气象站观测资料,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算了典型多年冻土区土壤蒸散发和蒸散发气候敏感系数,分析了多年冻土区土壤蒸散发对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:多年冻土区土壤蒸散量对相对湿度的敏感性最高(-1. 291),其次为风速(0. 658),对空气温度的敏感性最低(0. 248);土壤完全融化的植被生长期,蒸散发对各气象因子的敏感性最高,土壤完全冻结的植被枯萎期,蒸散发对各气象因子的敏感性都最低;年内尺度,蒸散发对气温、相对湿度和风速的敏感性均在8月最高,在1月或12月最低;蒸散发对气温和相对湿度的敏感性变化与植物生长变化过程高度一致,而蒸散发对风速的敏感性则较为复杂,与土壤的冻融过程相关,分别在土壤逐渐融化的植物生长前期和土壤完全融化的植物生长期敏感性较高。     

模拟多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应

在气候变化背景下,活动层厚度的变化会对多年冻土区水文,生态,寒区工程等产生较大的影响.本研究利用中科院气候系统模式CAS-FGOALS-g3和陆面过程模式CAS-LSM模拟分析了活动层厚度的变化趋势和相对变化.结果表明:活动层厚度整体上呈现出增加的趋势.1979-2014年,多年冻土区活动层厚度的区域平均为1.08 m...     

1985—2020年呼伦贝尔市冻土气候变化特征

利用1985—2021年呼伦贝尔市15个国家气象站各层地温、第一冻土层下限、最大冻土深度资料,研究呼伦贝尔市冻土气候演变特征,同时采用重标极差（R/S）和非周期循环分析,统计最大冻土深度等气象要素时间序列的Hurst指数、分维数和非周期循环的平均循环长度,分析最大冻土深度等气象要素变化趋势和记忆周期。研究表明：（1）0cm地温、40cm平均地温、80cm平均地温都呈现出增大趋势,且0cm地温增大趋势最显著,特别是0cm地温最小值增大更加明显。（2）冻结持续日数呈缓慢减小趋势,其中中部偏北海拔超过600 m山区持续时间最长,西南部和东南部地区持续时间最短。（3）7月中旬冻土在北部地区开始,9月开始到10月下旬向西南和东南地区扩展,次年5月上旬至6月下旬自西南和东南地区向北部地区开始消失。（4）最大冻土深度呈现逐年减小趋势,突变年份出现在1988年,最大冻土深度在7－9月最浅,次年2－4月最深,10月－次年1月是最大冻土深度不断加深的过程,5－6月是最大冻土深度显著减小的时段,其中最大冻土深度最大值出现在西部偏南地区。（5）R/S和非周期循环分析表明,冻结持续日数和最大冻土深度未来减小趋势仍将持续,持续时间分别为10 a和8 a;0cm地温、40cm平均地温、80cm平均地温未来增大趋势仍将持续,持续时间都为12 a。     

Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010: A Numerical Simulation

Since the 1990s, the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau(QTP) has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground. A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground(SFG) has long been recognized. Still, a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated,despite the expectation that it will b...     

Northward migration of permafrost along the Mackenzie highway and climatic warming

Based on two field surveys of permafrost distribution, conducted 26 years apart, along the Mackenzie Highway south of Great Slave Lake, Canada, the southern limit of the sporadic discontinuous permafrost zone in the region has migrated northward by about 120 km. To substantiate that the disappearance of perennial frozen ground is largely caused by climatic warming, a detailed trend analysis of monthly air temperature records from nine weather stations was performed using the non-parametric Kendall's test. The results show that the region experienced a general warming trend for the period 1949–1989 and warming is more prominent in the minimum than the maximum temperature series. From estimates of the magnitude of warming trends on a monthly basis, the resultant increase in mean annual air temperature could readily lead to the observed northward migration of permafrost.     

Permafrost hydrology in North America 1

Abstract

This paper reviews hydrologic processes in the permafrost regions of northern North America. Much work has recently been done at specific experimental plots to parallel the progress in laboratory investigations, improving our understanding of the heat and water fluxes in thawed and frozen grounds, infiltration in frozen soils, evaporation in a cold environment, interaction between snow and its frozen substrate, and the dynamics of storage in the active layer. Field research on permafrost slopes and in northern research basins adds to our knowledge of permafrost groundwater hydrology, runoff generating processes, river freeze‐up and breakup processes and allows more precise definition of basin water balance. Sufficient hydrometric data are now available to analyse the streamflow characteristics in an area with permafrost, and more work should be done along this line. It is urged that process studies be continued to gain a better understanding of the effect of permafrost upon the hydrologic cycle. Further research is needed to predict the impacts of human activities on the movement and redistribution of water.     

A retrospective analysis of pan Arctic permafrost using the JULES land surface model

There is mounting evidence that permafrost degradation has occurred over the past century. However, the amount of permafrost lost is uncertain because permafrost is not readily observable over long time periods and large scales. This paper uses JULES, the land surface component of the Hadley Centre global climate model, driven by different realisations of twentieth century meteorology to estimate the pan-arctic changes in near-surface permafrost. Model simulations of permafrost are strongly dependent on the amount of snow both in the driving meteorology and the way it is treated once it reaches the ground. The multi-layer snow scheme recently adopted by JULES significantly improves its estimates of soil temperatures and permafrost extent. Therefore JULES, despite still having a small cold bias in soil temperatures, can now simulate a near-surface permafrost extent which is comparable to that observed. Changes in snow cover have been shown to contribute to changes in permafrost and JULES simulates a significant decrease in late twentieth century pan-Arctic spring snow cover extent. In addition, large-scale modelled changes in the active layer are comparable with those observed over northern Russia. Simulations over the period 1967–2000 show a significant loss of near-surface permafrost—between 0.55 and 0.81 million km² per decade with this spread caused by differences in the driving meteorology. These runs also show that, for the grid cells where the active layer has increased significantly, the mean increase is ~10 cm per decade. The permafrost degradation discussed here is mainly caused by an increase in the active layer thickness driven by changes in the large scale atmospheric forcing. However, other processes such as thermokarst development and river and coastal erosion may also occur enhancing permafrost loss.     

2003年7月28日晋东南及豫北区域暴雨天气分析

利用MICAPS系统提供的资料，对2003年7月28日发生在晋东南和豫北区域暴雨过程的大尺度环流背景和物理量场进行了分析。得出：本次暴雨过程是在中纬度西风槽与中低空切变线的相互作用下产生的，前期不稳定能量的高度积累为暴雨提供了充沛的水汽和能量，近地面层的微弱扰动触发了不稳定能量的释放，为暴雨的发生提供了动力条件。     

一次高炮防雹效果的CINRAD/CC产品分析

结合2005年6月25日祁连山东部1次高炮消雹试验,利用新一代天气雷达高时空分辨率资料,从消雹前后雷达回波外形特征、垂直最大回波强度、回波顶高、雹云内部水平风场、垂直结构、最大垂直积分液态含水量的变化以及地面降水实况等方面进行了检验分析。结果表明:(1)高炮消雹抑制雹云的发展主要存在2方面作用:一是AgI在爆炸点附近快速四周散播,并与周围冻滴快速碰并而减少冻滴的平均质量和直径,二是炮弹爆炸动力抑制爆炸点下方附近上升气流的发展;(2)高炮消雹在有效抑制冰雹云发展的同时,有利于地面降水的产生,起到人工增雨的效果,对此次消雹过程而言,假设空中液态水以雨滴形式全部降到地面,消雹后地面降水将增加4.69%。     

大同市冻土气候变化初探

利用大同市所辖8个站1962—2012年地面气象观测记录中的冻土资料,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平等方法,分析大同市土壤开始冻结期、完全解冻期、冻结期及最大冻土深度的变化特征及其影响因素。结果发现：51年中大同市冻土主要表现为最大冻土深度减小, 开始冻结期推迟,解冻期提前, 冻结持续期缩短的总体变化趋势,冻土除了受气温的影响外,局地因素对最大冻土深度的影响较大。     

Progress on observation of cryospheric components and climate-related studies in China

Systematic studies on the cryosphere in China started in the late 1950s. Significant achievements have been made by continuous investigation of glacier inventories, frozen ground observations, paleo-climate analyses of ice cores, process studies and the modeling of cryopsheric/atmospheric interactions. The general facts and understanding of these changes include： （1） Solid precipitation, including the number of days with frost and hail storms, shows a decreasing tendency over the past half century. （2） In most areas glaciers are retreating or have completely vanished （〉80%）, some glaciers are still advancing （5%-20% depending upon time period）. The annual glacial melt water has been increasing since the 1980s. This increased supply of melt water to river runoff in Northwest China is about a 10%-13%. （3） The long-term variability of snow cover in western China is characterized by a large inter-annual variation superimposed on a small increasing trend. Snow cover variability in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） is influenced by the Indian monsoon, and conversely impacts monsoon onset and strength and eventually the drought and flood events in middle-low reaches of Yangtze River. （4） Frozen ground, including permafrost, is decaying both in QXP and in Northeast China. The most significant changes occurred in the regions with thickest seasonal frozen ground （SFG）, i.e., inland QXP, then northeastern and northwestern QXP. The cold season air temperature is the main factor controlling SFG change. The increase of ground surface temperatures is more significant than air temperature. （5） The sea ice coverage over the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea has deceased since the 1980s. （6） River ice duration and ice thickness is also decreasing in northern China.
In 2001, the Chinese National Committee of World Climate Research Program/Climate and Cyosphere （WCRP/CliC） （CNC-CliC） was organized to strengthen research on climate and cryosphere in China. Future monitoring of the cryosphe