Variability of the partial pressure of CO2 on a daily-to-seasonal time scale in a shallow coastal system affected by intensive aquaculture activities (Bay of Cadiz, SW Iberian Peninsula)

The present study describes the temporal variability of the water fCO₂ as well as the different driving forces controlling this variability, on time scales from daily to seasonal, in the Rio San Pedro, a tidal creek located in a salt marsh area in the Bay of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula). This shallow tidal creek system is affected by effluents of organic matter and nutrients from the surrounding marine fish farms. Continuous pCO₂, salinity and temperature were recorded for four periods of approximately one month, between February and September in 2004.Major processes controlling the CO₂ variability are related to three different time scales. Daily variations in fCO₂ are controlled by tidal advection and mixing of the water from within the creek and the seawater that enters from the Bay of Cadiz. Significant cyclical variations of the fCO₂ have been observed with the maximum values occurring at low tide. On a fortnightly time scale, the amplitude of the daily variability of fCO₂ is modulated by the variations in the residence time of the water within the creek, which are related to the spring–neap tide sequence.On a third time scale, high seasonal variability is observed for the temperature, salinity and fCO₂. Maximum and minimum values for fCO₂ were 380 µatm and 3760 µatm for February and July respectively. Data suggest that seasonal variability is related to the seasonal variability in discharges from the fish farm and to the increase with temperature of organic matter respiratory processes in the tidal creek. The fCO₂ values observed are in the same range as several highly polluted European estuaries or waters surrounding mangrove forests. From the air–water CO₂ flux computed, it can be concluded that the Rio San Pedro acts as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere throughout the year, with the summer accounting for the higher average monthly flux.     

The importance of shale composition and pore structure upon gas storage potential of shale gas reservoirs

The effect of shale composition and fabric upon pore structure and CH₄ sorption is investigated for potential shale gas reservoirs in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Devonian–Mississippian (D–M) and Jurassic shales have complex, heterogeneous pore volume distributions as identified by low pressure CO₂ and N₂ sorption, and high pressure Hg porosimetry. Thermally mature D–M shales (1.6–2.5% VRo) have Dubinin–Radushkevich (D–R) CO₂ micropore volumes ranging between 0.3 and 1.2 cc/100 g and N₂ BET surface areas of 5–31 m²/g. Jurassic shales, which are invariably of lower thermal maturity ranging from 0.9 to 1.3% VRo, than D–M shales have smaller D–R CO₂ micropore volumes and N₂ BET surface areas, typically in the range of 0.23–0.63 cc/100 g (CO₂) and 1–9 m²/g (N₂).     

Phytoplankton production in two east coast estuaries: Photosynthesis-light functions and patterns of carbon assimilation in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

Chesapeake Bay is a large and productive estuary that has received close scrutiny in recent years because of indications that its water quality and biota have been damaged by man's activities. Data on primary production for the estuary as a whole, however, are surprisingly sparse. We describe here the distribution of photosynthetic carbon assimilation by phytoplankton in Chesapeake Bay, and relate productivity patterns to hydrographic characteristics of the estuary. Between March 1982 and April 1983, a series of four cruises was conducted on Chesapeake Bay, and two cruises on the urbanized Delaware Bay for comparison. The upper Chesapeake and Delaware were highly turbid with high concentrations of suspended particulate matter and dissolved inorganic nutrients. Low chlorophyll concentrations were usually found in these areas of high turbidity, despite the abundance of nutrients, suggesting light limitation. Application of Wofsy's (1983) model of phytoplanton growth confirmed this suggestion. Chlorophyll and productivity maxima usually occurred seaward of the turbidity maxima where light penetration increased and suffient nutrients were present to support active phytoplankton growth. Further seaward of the chlorophyll maxima in the Chesapeake, the photic zone depth increased, concentrations of nutrients decreased, and phytoplankton biomass decreased, suggesting that nutrient availability, rather than light, controlled phytoplankton growth in the lower portion of the estuary. In contrast to the Chesapeake, Delaware Bay was more turbid, had generally higher nutrient concentrations, and was lower in phytoplankton productivity. The chlorophyll maxima and region of rapid phytoplankton growth occurred further toward the lower estuary and shelf regions in Delaware Bay because the high turbidity extended further seaward. Nutrients were never depleted at the shelf end of the estuary sufficiently to retard phytoplankton growth. Photosynthesis-irradiance (P-I) curves from simulated in situ and constant intensity incubations showed a strong correlation of the light-limited slope (a^B) with the light-saturated rate ( ) on each cruise. Spatial variations in corresponded to patterns of phytoplankton abundance, as did integral production (PP) and carbon-based growth rates (μ_C, μ_m), and photosynthetic parameters varied significantly with temperature.     

The distribution of the carbonate parameters in the waters of Anadyr Bay of the Bering Sea and in the western part of the Chukchi Sea

The distribution of the total alkalinity (TA), the total inorganic carbon (TCO₂), the calcium (Ca), and the CO₂ partial pressure in the waters of the northwestern Bering Sea (Anadyr Bay) and in the western part of the Chukchi Sea is considered according to the data obtained in August–September 2002. It is shown that the areas treated were sinks of atmospheric CO₂ in the summer of 2002: the total CO₂ exchange between the atmosphere and the seawater was equal to about −20 mmol C/(m² day). The net community production according to the TCO₂ decrease in the upper photic layer in the west of the Chukchi Sea and in the Anadyr Bay waters amounted to 48 ± 12 and 72 ± 18 g C/(m² year), respectively. The comparison with historical data allows one to tell about the pronounced increase of the TCO₂, TA, and Ca concentrations in the waters of Anadyr Bay and in the western part of the Chukchi Sea in the summer 2002. The processes that might have caused the changes observed are the enrichment of the estuarine waters in marine salts under the ice formation in winter and the decrease of the supply of the waters of the Bering Slope Current to the northwestern part of the Bering Sea.     

Climate change: A looming challenge for fisheries management in southern Africa

It is now widely accepted that the earth's climate is changing under the influence of anthropogenic activities. A number of key changes in the earths atmosphere and ocean have already been detected (including increasing global surface temperature, rising sea levels, increases in incident UV radiation, changes in average annual precipitation, and increases in the variability and intensity of extreme weather events, among others), while speculation regarding future changes is rife. The implications of global climate change for fish stocks and fisheries is of concern to many scientists, but little effort has been made to incorporate observed changes or event such thinking into management models and paradigms. This paper summarises available evidence linking the production of key greenhouse gases with observed and future projected changes in the earth's climate, specifically in respect of a number of key atmospheric and oceanographic parameters likely to affect fish stocks in South Africa (temperature, pressure/wind fields, CO₂ concentration, rainfall, mean sea level and UV radiation). It also explores likely effects of these changes on fish stocks and key fishery sectors. In addition, it highlights a number of positive steps that be taken by management authorities to ensure that they and the fishing communities for which they are responsible are in the best possible position to deal with the effects of changing global climate as they become manifest.     

Effects of upwelling,tides and biological processes on the inorganic carbon system of a coastal lagoon in Baja California

The role of coastal lagoons and estuaries as sources or sinks of inorganic carbon in upwelling areas has not been fully understood. During the months of May–July, 2005, we studied the dissolved inorganic carbon system in a coastal lagoon of northwestern Mexico during the strongest period of upwelling events. Along the bay, different scenarios were observed for the distributions of pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) as a result of different combinations of upwelling intensity and tidal amplitude. DIC concentrations in the outer part of the bay were controlled by mixing processes. At the inner part of the bay DIC was as low as 1800 μmol kg⁻¹, most likely due to high water residence times and seagrass CO₂ uptake. It is estimated that 85% of San Quintín Bay, at the oceanic end, acted as a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere due to the inflow of CO₂-rich upwelled waters from the neighboring ocean with high positive fluxes higher than 30 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. In contrast, there was a net uptake of CO₂ and HCO₃⁻ by the seagrass bed Zostera marina in the inner part of the bay, so the pCO₂ in this zone was below the equilibrium value and slightly negative CO₂ fluxes of −6 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. Our positive NEP and ΔDIC values indicate that Bahía San Quintín was a net autotrophic system during the upwelling season during 2005.     

Carbonate system and CO2 degassing fluxes in the inner estuary of Changjiang (Yangtze) River,China

We examined the carbonate system, mainly the partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TAlk) in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary based on four field surveys conducted in Sep.–Oct. 2005, Dec. 2005, Jan. 2006 and Apr. 2006. Together with our reported pCO₂ data collected in Aug.–Sep. 2003, this study provides, for the first time, a full seasonal coverage with regards to CO₂ outgassing fluxes in this world major river–estuarine system. Surface pCO₂ ranged 650–1440 μatm in the upper reach of the Changjiang River Estuary, 1000–4600 μatm in the Huangpujiang River, an urbanized and major tributary of the Changjiang downstream which was characterized by a very high respiration rate, and 200–1000 μatm in the estuarine mixing zone. Both DIC and TAlk overall behaved conservatively during the estuarine mixing, and the seasonal coverage of these carbonate parameters allowed us to estimate the annual DIC export flux from the Changjiang River as ∼ 1.54 × 10¹² mol. The highly polluted Huangpujiang River appeared to have a significant impact on DIC, TAlk and pCO₂ in the lower reaches of the inner estuary. CO₂ emission flux from the main stream of the Changjiang Estuary was at a low level of 15.5–34.2 mol m^− 2 yr^− 1. Including the Huangpujiang River and the adjacent Shanghai inland waters, CO₂ degassing flux from the Changjiang Estuary may have represented only 2.0%–4.6% of the DIC exported from the Changjiang River into the East China Sea.     

Interannual variations of the Antarctic Ocean CO2 uptake from 1986 to 1994

The interannual variations of CO₂ sources and sinks in the surface waters of the Antarctic Ocean (south of 50°S) were studied between 1986 and 1994. An existing, slightly modified one-dimensional model describing the mixed-layer carbon cycle was used for this study and forced by available satellite-derived and climatological data. Between 1986 and 1994, the mean Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake was 0.53 Pg C year⁻¹ with an interannual variability of 0.15 Pg C year⁻¹.Interannual variation of the Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake is related to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), which affects sea surface temperature (SST), wind-speed and sea-ice extent. The CO₂ uptake in the Antarctic Ocean has increased from 1986 to 1994 by 0.32 Pg C. It was found that over the 9 years, the surface ocean carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂) increase was half that of the atmospheric CO₂ increase inducing an increase of the air–sea fCO₂ gradient. This effect is responsible for 60% of the Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake increase between 1986 and 1994, as the ACW effect cancels out over the 9 years investigated.     

Primary production in the Strait of Gibraltar: Carbon fixation rates in relation to hydrodynamic and phytoplankton dynamics

Primary production was studied at nine sites distributed within the Strait of Gibraltar (Southern Spain) and North-Western (NW) Alboran Sea by analyzing photosynthesis-irradiance (P–I) relationships and integrated primary production rates in relation to the different types of Deep Chlorophyll Maxima (DCM) detected in the area. The characteristics of the DCM were examined by several methods, including flow cytometry, quantification of transparent expolymer particles and fluorimetric measurements that were applied in order to assess the photo-physiological state of the phytoplankton assemblages with respect to their species composition and water column structure (hydrology). The photosynthetic parameters (derived from P–I relationships) and integrated primary production (range 6–644 mg m⁻² d⁻¹) responded greatly to the diverse DCM identified and thereby the spatial variability of the primary production observed in the region was found to depend upon the occurrence of the different types of phytoplankton accumulations, which were themselves indicative of the previous history of the water column. The net contribution of the primary production to the air–sea CO₂ exchange process was also evaluated in the area. Results indicated that this region behaved as a net sink for the atmospheric CO₂, with the intensity of the flux being strongly modulated by the wind intensity.     

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of air–sea CO2 fluxes and seawater carbonate chemistry in the Southern North Sea

A 3D coupled biogeochemical–hydrodynamic model (MIRO-CO₂&CO) is implemented in the English Channel (ECH) and the Southern Bight of the North Sea (SBNS) to estimate the present-day spatio-temporal distribution of air–sea CO₂ fluxes, surface water partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and other components of the carbonate system (pH, saturation state of calcite (Ω_ca) and of aragonite (Ω_ar)), and the main drivers of their variability. Over the 1994–2004 period, air–sea CO₂ fluxes show significant inter-annual variability, with oscillations between net annual CO₂ sinks and sources. The inter-annual variability of air–sea CO₂ fluxes simulated in the SBNS is controlled primarily by river loads and changes of biological activities (net autotrophy in spring and early summer, and net heterotrophy in winter and autumn), while in areas less influenced by river inputs such as the ECH, the inter-annual variations of air–sea CO₂ fluxes are mainly due to changes in sea surface temperature and in near-surface wind strength and direction. In the ECH, the decrease of pH, of Ω_ca and of Ω_ar follows the one expected from the increase of atmospheric CO₂ (ocean acidification), but the decrease of these quantities in the SBNS during the considered time period is faster than the one expected from ocean acidification alone. This seems to be related to a general pattern of decreasing nutrient river loads and net ecosystem production (NEP) in the SBNS. Annually, the combined effect of carbon and nutrient loads leads to an increase of the sink of CO₂ in the ECH and the SBNS, but the impact of the river loads varies spatially and is stronger in river plumes and nearshore waters than in offshore waters. The impact of organic and inorganic carbon (C) inputs is mainly confined to the coast and generates a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere and low pH, of Ω_ca and of Ω_ar values in estuarine plumes, while the impact of nutrient loads, highest than the effect of C inputs in coastal nearshore waters, also propagates offshore and, by stimulating primary production, drives a sink of atmospheric CO₂ and higher values of pH, of Ω_ca and of Ω_ar.     

Changes in ocean ventilation during the 21st Century in the CCSM3

Changes in the ventilation rate of the global ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries, as indicated by changes in the distribution of ideal age, are examined in a series of integrations of the Community Climate System Model version 3. The global mean age changes little in the 20th Century relative to pre-industrial conditions, but increases in the 21st Century, by an amount that is independent of the range of climate forcings considered. The increase is primarily due to a decrease in the ventilation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and to a lesser degree, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Changes in a regional volumetric census of age indicate that the changes in AABW are predominantly for waters that are already older than 100 years, so will likely have a moderate direct feedback on oceanic uptake of CO₂ and other tracers. On the other hand, the changes in NADW occur most strongly in waters that are a few decades old, so are more likely to have a feedback on the climate system. While the global mean age increases, the age does not increase everywhere in the ocean. Regions newly exposed to strong atmospheric forcing as sea ice retreats experience an increase in convection and decreasing age. Age also decreases over a large volume of the lower thermocline as the rate of upwelling of old deep water decreases with the weakening of the thermohaline circulation.     

Changes in deep-water CO2 concentrations over the last several decades determined from discrete pCO2measurements

Detection and attribution of hydrographic and biogeochemical changes in the deep ocean are challenging due to the small magnitude of their signals and to limitations in the accuracy of available data. However, there are indications that anthropogenic and climate change signals are starting to manifest at depth. The deep ocean below 2000 m comprises about 50% of the total ocean volume, and changes in the deep ocean should be followed over time to accurately assess the partitioning of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) between the ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and atmosphere. Here we determine the changes in the interior deep-water inorganic carbon content by a novel means that uses the partial pressure of CO₂ measured at 20 °C, pCO₂(20), along three meridional transects in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These changes are measured on decadal time scales using observations from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)/World Hydrographic Program (WHP) of the 1980s and 1990s and the CLIVAR/CO₂ Repeat Hydrography Program of the past decade. The pCO₂(20) values show a consistent increase in deep water over the time period. Changes in total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) content in the deep interior are not significant or consistent, as most of the signal is below the level of analytical uncertainty. Using an approximate relationship between pCO₂(20) and DIC change, we infer DIC changes that are at the margin of detectability. However, when integrated on the basin scale, the increases range from 8–40% of the total specific water column changes over the past several decades. Patterns in chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), along with output from an ocean model, suggest that the changes in pCO₂(20) and DIC are of anthropogenic origin.     

Intercomparison of shipboard and moored CARIOCA buoy seawater fCO2 measurements in the Sargasso Sea

The ocean is an important sink for carbon and heat, yet high-resolution measurements of biogeochemical properties relevant to global climate change are being made only sporadically in the ocean at present. There is a growing need for automated, real-time, long-term measurements of CO₂ in the ocean using a network of sensors, strategically placed on ships, moorings, free-drifting buoys and autonomous remotely operated vehicles. The ground-truthing of new sensor technologies is a vital component of present and future efforts to monitor changes in the ocean carbon cycle and air–sea exchange of CO₂.A comparison of a moored Carbon Interface Ocean Atmosphere (CARIOCA) buoy and shipboard fugacity of CO₂ (fCO₂) measurements was conducted in the western North Atlantic during two extended periods (>1 month) in 1997. The CARIOCA buoy was deployed on the Bermuda Testbed Mooring (BTM), which is located 5 km north of the site of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS). The high frequency of sampling revealed that temperature and fCO₂ responded to physical forcing by the atmosphere on timescales from diurnal to 4–8 days. Concurrent with the deployments of the CARIOCA buoy, frequent measurements of surface fCO₂ were made from the R/V Weatherbird II during opportunistic visits to the BTM and BATS sites, providing a direct calibration of the CARIOCA buoy fCO₂ data. Although, the in situ ground-truthing of the CARIOCA buoy was complicated by diurnal processes, sub-mesoscale and fine-scale variability, the CARIOCA buoy fCO₂ data was accurate within 3±6 μatm of shipboard fCO₂ data for periods up to 50 days. Longer-term assessments were not possible due to the CARIOCA buoy breaking free of the BTM and drifting into waters with different fCO₂-temperature properties. Strategies are put forward for future calibration of other in situ sensors.     

Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941–2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.     

Remote sensing of particle backscattering in Chesapeake Bay: A 6-year SeaWiFS retrospective view

Traditional field techniques to monitor water quality in large estuaries, such as boat-based surveys and autonomous moored sensors, generally provide limited spatial coverage. Satellite imagery potentially can be used to address both of these limitations. Here, we show that satellite-based observations are useful for inferring total-suspended-solids (TSS) concentrations in estuarine areas. A spectra-matching optimization algorithm was used to estimate the particle backscattering coefficient at 400 nm, b_bp(400), in Chesapeake Bay from Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite imagery. These estimated values of b_bp(400) were compared to in situ measurements of TSS for the study period of September 1997–December 2003. Contemporaneous SeaWiFS b_bp(400) values and TSS concentrations were positively correlated (N = 340, r² = 0.4, P < 0.0005), and the satellite-derived b_bp(400) values served as a reasonable first-order approximation for synoptically mapping TSS. Overall, large-scale patterns of SeaWiFS b_bp(400) appeared to be consistent with expectations based on field observations and historical reports of TSS. Monthly averages indicated that SeaWiFS b_bp(400) was typically largest in winter (>0.049 m⁻¹, November–February) and smallest in summer (<0.031 m⁻¹, June–August), regardless of the amount of riverine discharge to the bay. The study period also included Hurricanes Floyd and Isabel, which caused large-scale turbidity events and changes in the water quality of the bay. These results demonstrate that this technique can provide frequent synoptic assessments of suspended solids concentrations in Chesapeake Bay and other coastal regions.     

Carbon dioxide in surface seawater of the eastern North Pacific Ocean (Line P), 1973–2005

Partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) in surface seawater has been measured in the northeastern Pacific Ocean at Station P and along Line P since 1973. These data have been divided into ‘oceanic’ and ‘coastal/transition’ zones, and the seasonal and interannual variability and the long-term trends for each zone have been examined. The oceanic zone shows little seasonality in surface seawater pCO₂, with undersaturation throughout the year. A strong, biologically-driven seasonal cycle is offset by variation in temperature-dependent solubility of CO₂. The coastal/transition zone shows a decline in pCO₂ from winter–spring through summer and fall that is likely the result of seasonal stratification and convection rather than coastal upwelling. Interannual variability all along Line P is correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), with lower seawater pCO₂ associated with El Niño conditions. Correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index are similar but weaker, in part because there are few data prior to the 1976 regime shift. The long-term trend in seawater pCO₂ in the oceanic zone is +1.36±0.16 μatm year^?1, indistinguishable from the atmospheric growth rate, and varies little among the seasons. In the coastal/transition zone a slow increase in the pCO₂ of surface seawater relative to that of the atmosphere has led to increasing undersaturation, particularly in spring. Aliasing of the seasonal and interannual variability due to sampling frequency may explain part of the observed trend in the coastal/transition zone, but real changes in physical or biological processes are also possible and require more detailed study.     

Alkalinity changes in the Sargasso Sea: geochemical evidence of calcification?

Strong seasonal patterns in upper ocean total carbon dioxide (TCO₂), alkalinity (TA) and calculated pCO₂ were observed in a time series of water column measurements collected at the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) BATS site (31 °50′N, 64 °10′W) in the Sargasso Sea. TA distribution was a conservative function of salinity. However, in February 1992, a non-conservative decrease in TA was observed, with maximum depletion of 25–30 μmoles kg⁻¹ occuring in the surface layer and at the depth of the chlorophyll maximum (˜ 80–100 m). Mixed-layer TCO₂ also decreased, while surface pCO₂ increased by 25–30 μatm. We suggest these changes in carbon dioxide species resulted from open-ocean calcification by carbonate-secreting organisms rather than physical processes. Coccolithophore calcification is the most likely cause of this event although calcification by foraminifera or pteropods cannot be ruled out. Due to the transient increase in surface pCO₂, the net annual transfer of CO₂ into the ocean at BATS was reduced. These observations demonstrate the potential importance of open-ocean calcification and biological community structure in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon.     

Adaptive variability to low‐pH river discharges in Acartia tonsa and stress responses to high PCO2 conditions

Environmental transitions leading to spatial physical–chemical gradients are of ecological and evolutionary interest because they are able to induce variations in phenotypic plasticity. Thus, the adaptive variability to low‐pH river discharges may drive divergent stress responses [ingestion rates (IR) and expression of stress‐related genes such as Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Ferritin] in the neritic copepod Acartia tonsa facing changes in the marine chemistry associated to ocean acidification (OA). These responses were tested in copepod populations inhabiting two environments with contrasting carbonate system parameters (an estuarine versus coastal area) in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and assessing an in situ and 96‐h experimental incubation under conditions of high pressure of CO₂ (_PCO₂ 1200 ppm). Adaptive variability was a determining factor in driving variability of copepods' responses. Thus, the food‐rich but colder and corrosive estuary induced a traits trade‐off expressed as depressed IR under in situ conditions. However, this experience allowed these copepods to tolerate further exposure to high _PCO₂ levels better, as their IRs were on average 43% higher than those of the coastal individuals. Indeed, expression of both the Hsp70 and Ferritin genes in coastal copepods was significantly higher after acclimation to high _PCO₂ conditions. Along with other recent evidence, our findings confirm that adaptation to local fluctuations in seawater pH seems to play a significant role in the response of planktonic populations to OA‐associated conditions. Facing the environmental threat represented by the inter‐play between multiple drivers of climate change, this biological feature should be examined in detail as a potential tool for risk mitigation policies in coastal management arrangements.     

Simulation and prediction of climate changes in the 19th to 21st centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, model of the Earth’s climate system

This paper presents results from a simulation of climate changes in the 19th–21st centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model Version 4 (INMCM4) in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). Like the previous INMCM3 version, this model has a low sensitivity of 4.0 K to a quadrupling of CO₂ concentration. Global warming in the model by the end of the 21st century is 1.9 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.4 K for RCP8.5. The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation changes driven by the enhanced greenhouse effect is similar to that derived from the INMCM3 model data. In the INMCM4 model, however, the heat flux to the ocean and sea-level rise caused by thermal expansion are roughly 1.5 times as large as those in the INMCM3 model under the same scenario. A decrease in sea-ice extent and a change in heat fluxes and meridional circulation in the ocean under global warming, as well as some aspects of natural climate variability in the model, are considered.     

Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats,throughout the 21st century

Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere–ocean coupled general climate models, have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay; these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that, from 2001 to 2099, sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm, as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting, under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model, extracted from LiDAR, data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds, vegetated dunes, shingle beaches, sea cliffs and supralittoral rock, wetlands and saltmarshes, terrestrial habitats, artificial land, piers, and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied, to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries, with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%, of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected, as a consequence of the sea level rise, is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change.