冬季鄂霍次克海海冰对北太平洋风暴轴年际变化的影响

利用北极海冰密集度资料和NCEP＼NCAR再分析资料，运用统计方法讨论了冬季鄂霍次克海及其邻近海区海冰异常与同期北太平洋风暴轴的联系。结果发现，冬季鄂霍次克海西南部海区海冰面积异常与北太平洋海温异常共同作用对北太平洋风暴轴在西北一东南方向的伸缩及强度的年际变化有重要影响，而在海温异常的共同作用下，鄂霍次克海东北部及舍列霍夫海海区海冰面积异常则主要影响风暴轴的南北位移和强弱。     

夏季北极密集冰区范围确定及其时空变化研究

研究夏季北极密集冰区的范围变化是了解北极海冰融化过程的重要手段。密集冰区与海冰边缘区之间没有明确的分界线, 海冰密集度在两者之间平滑过渡, 确定密集冰区范围就需确定一个密集度阈值。文中依据分辨率为6.25 km的AMSR-E遥感数据, 发现不同密集度阈值所围范围在密集冰区边缘处的减小存在由快变慢的过程, 同时与周围格点的密集度差异变化在该处最为显著, 对这两个特征进行统计分析, 获得的阈值同为89%, 具有明确的物理意义和合理性。以此为基础, 运用腐蚀算法剔除海冰边缘区, 同时结合连通域法排除小范围密集冰的影响, 进而确定密集冰区的范围。结果表明, 2002-2006年密集冰区覆盖范围较大, 年际变化较小, 2007年以后明显减小, 2010年与2011年相继出现最小值, 其中2011年的范围最小值仅为2006年的64%。密集冰区范围的变化不同于海冰覆盖范围, 是具有独立特性的海冰变化参数, 反映出高密集度海冰区域的变化特征。海冰的融化与海冰边缘区的变化是导致密集冰区范围发生变化的两个主要因素, 受动力学因素的影响, 海冰边缘区发生伸展或收缩, 发生密集冰区与海冰边缘区互相转化。本文提出了一种研究北极海冰变化的新思路, 密集冰区覆盖范围的减小表明北极中央区域高密集度海冰正持续减少。     

南极普里兹湾邻近海域海冰生消发展特征分析

利用美国冰雪数据中心发布的2003-2008年高分辨率海冰密集度数据,分6个阶段对普里兹湾区域海冰季节性变化的空间分布特征进行了研究,并根据普里兹湾海区的地形和环流对这些特征的成因进行了分析.结果表明,普里兹湾海冰冻结过程和融化过程分别经历7个月和5个月,海冰融化速度最快月份是10月和11月,主要表现形式为海冰密集度的减少;海冰冻结速度4月和6月最快,海冰外缘线向北扩展.由于普里兹湾近岸达恩利角冰间湖、普里兹湾冰间湖和Barrier湾冰间湖的存在,海冰的融化呈现大洋区由北向南、近岸区由南向北的双向融化特征;而在普里兹湾口、弗拉姆浅滩和四女士浅滩均存在不易融化的冰舌,两者之间的低密集度海冰区,则对应于暖水侵入普里兹湾的通道.南极绕极流在流经凯尔盖朗海台中部时向北偏转,造成此处在盛冰期较其它经度的海冰外缘更靠北,可达57°S.南极辐散带的表层流场和上升暖流抑制海冰冻结和聚集,形成了低海冰密集度区域.     

预报中心信息管理室现有如下资料

1.《南极海冰图集及资料》。资料样本年限为1973～1986年。内容有:(1)南极海冰密集度分布图;(2)南极海冰面积指数;(3)南极海冰长期变动图.2.《南半球500百帕平均高度及距平图集》.运用1972年5月～1990年4月共18年美国NCAR华盛顿天气预报中心和欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的南半球逐日500百帕5×5经纬度网格点高度资料,计算了多年平均的候、旬、月高度场和逐年逐月的平均高度及距平,并参考常规资料分析绘制而成。     

南极普里兹湾邻近海域海冰生消发展特征分析

利用美国冰雪数据中心发布的2003—2008年高分辨率海冰密集度数据,分6个阶段对普里兹湾区域海冰季节性变化的空间分布特征进行了研究,并根据普里兹湾海区的地形和环流对这些特征的成因进行了分析。结果表明,普里兹湾海冰冻结过程和融化过程分别经历7个月和5个月,海冰融化速度最快月份是10月和11月,主要表现形式为海冰密集度的减少;海冰冻结速度4月和6月最快,海冰外缘线向北扩展。由于普里兹湾近岸达恩利角冰间湖、普里兹湾冰间湖和Barrier湾冰间湖的存在,海冰的融化呈现大洋区由北向南、近岸区由南向北的双向融化特征;而在普里兹湾口、弗拉姆浅滩和四女士浅滩均存在不易融化的冰舌,两者之间的低密集度海冰区,则对应于暖水侵入普里兹湾的通道。南极绕极流在流经凯尔盖朗海台中部时向北偏转,造成此处在盛冰期较其它经度的海冰外缘更靠北,可达57°S。南极辐散带的表层流场和上升暖流抑制海冰冻结和聚集,形成了低海冰密集度区域。     

北极高密集度冰区海冰的多时间尺度变化特征及其极端低值事件分析

利用美国冰雪中心(NSIDC)高分辨率海冰密集度等多种数据,定义了北极高密集度冰区(High concentration ice region:HCIR)海冰变化指数,在此基础上研究了1989—2017年HCIR海冰多尺度变化特征及其极端低值事件的可能形成原因。结果表明:北极HCIR海冰密集度具有显著的单峰型季节变化特征,4月密集度最高,9月密集度最低,年较差达17.70%,兼有夏季融冰期短、冬季结冰期长且持续稳定的特点。HCIR海冰存在显著的年际年代际变化,在2007年发生了年代际转折以后,海冰变化指数的年际变化幅度和频次明显加强,且在2016、2012、2007、2011、2008和2010年依次出现海冰密集度极端降低事件;2016年9月初HCIR海冰密集度达到历史最低值,接近50%。对HCIR海冰密集度极端低值事件的统计研究表明,29年间共出现874天(次)极端低值事件,约占总频次的8%;空间上海冰密集度的降低主要出现在沿HCIR边界线一带,存在巴伦支海-喀拉海北缘的斯瓦尔巴群岛-北地群岛和东西伯利亚-波弗特海两个中心区域,该空间分布与气旋式大气环流引起的北冰洋Ekman漂流的辐散分布相一致。这表明HCIR海冰密集度的极端降低与极涡的动力作用有关,同时风场对海冰的动力辐散作用还会引起HCIR开阔水域的扩大,进一步加强海冰反照率的正反馈机制,使得热力和动力作用耦合起来共同影响HCIR海冰的加速融化。     

南极海冰快速下降历史事件的时空特征分析

卫星记录以来,南极海冰范围发生5次快速下降事件,研究这5次事件的时空特征,对进一步认识海冰快速下降事件的物理机制具有重要意义。基于海冰范围和海冰密集度的卫星数据,从时间和空间两个维度总结5次南极海冰快速下降事件的特征,再结合大气和海洋各项环境因素的再分析数据,探讨海冰快速下降的影响因素及其驱动过程。结果显示:南极海冰快速下降的空间分布存在季节性差异, 2021年8～12月以及2016年8～12月的春季南极海冰快速下降由别林斯高晋海、威德尔海、印度洋和西太平洋区域的海冰减少所主导; 2010年12月至2011年4月以及1985年12月至1986年4月的夏季南极海冰快速下降由威德尔海、罗斯海沿岸和西太平洋区域的海冰减少所主导;2008年4～8月的冬季南极海冰快速下降则由别林斯高晋海和西太平洋的部分区域的海冰减少所主导。探究影响海冰的环境因素发现,海表面温度和海表面净热通量对海冰减少的热力效应影响具有区域性差异。此外,南极海冰快速下降受阿蒙森低压的影响,相应的海表面风异常既通过经向热输运的热力效应导致海冰减少,也通过风的动力效应驱动海冰漂移使得海冰密集度降低。     

两极冷源和热带海洋热源的相互作用

两极海冰和热带海洋SST的异常变化对全球气候监测和预报都是极为重要的指标.本文使用了南极、北极海冰月平均距平资料和ENSO事件五要素,即SOI和4个Nino海区的SST月平均距平值,计算了各区海冰之间以及与ENSO事件的逐月移动交叉相关时间序列,分析其变化特征,寻找两个波发生相互作用最强的时期.(1)发现北极海冰在两极海冰相互作用过程中起主导作用.北极海冰异常影响到后期南极海冰的异常变化.(2)赤道中太平洋的海温(SST)与南极威德尔海区的海冰(SPI3)和罗斯海区的海冰(SPI2)有强的相互作用,并且具有明显的周期性变化.SST与SPI3的周期是5～6a,与SPI2的周期是准11a,这些周期变化尺度与它们自身变化的周期有关.当两者周期相近时,在位相差一定的时期发生共振,产生强烈的相互作用最佳时期.     

气候因子对渤海冰情影响的统计分析

运用相关分析、偏相关分析等统计分析方法研究了北极涛动、北极海冰和西伯利亚高压等气候因子对渤海海冰年际变化的影响。统计表明西伯利亚高压是影响渤海海冰年际变化最重要的因子。秋季北极海冰密集度、冬季北极涛动与渤海冰情显著相关,它们可能通过影响西伯利亚高压的强度,从而影响渤海海冰的严重程度。利用回归分析得到渤海冰情等级与西伯利亚高压、西太平洋副高之间的统计关系,回归结果较好的反映了渤海冰情年际变化。     

北极冬季季节性海冰双模态特征分析

近年来北极海冰快速变化,北极中央区边缘正由以多年冰为主转为季节性海冰为主。通过对北极冬季季节性海冰的EOF分解发现,2002-2012年期间北极季节性海冰变化的前两模态主要体现为2005年和2007年的季节性海冰距平。其中第二模态主要体现了北极海冰在2005年的一种极端变化,而第一模态不仅体现了北极海冰在2007年的变化,还体现了北极季节性海冰的从负位相到正位相的转变。通过比较发现,在研究时段北极季节性海冰最主要的变化发生在北极太平洋扇区,在2007年,冬季季节性海冰距平发生位相转变,2007-2010年一直维持正位相,北极太平洋扇区冬季季节性海冰保持显著正距平。太平洋扇区表面温度最大异常也发生在2007年,从大气环流来看,2007年之后波弗特海区异常高压有利于夏季太平洋扇区海冰的减少,而西风急流的减弱有利于夏季波弗特海区异常高压的维持,结合夏季海冰速度,顺时针的冰速分布有利于海冰离开太平洋扇区,因而会导致冬季太平洋扇区季节性海冰转为正距平并且从2007年一直维持到2010年。     

Dynamics of seasonal and interannual variability of the ocean bottom pressure in the Southern Ocean

Seasonal and interannual variability of ocean bottom pressure(OBP) in the Southern Ocean was investigated using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) data and a Pressure Coordinate Ocean Model(PCOM)based on mass conservation. By comparing OBP, steric sea level, and sea level, it is found that at high latitudes the OBP variability dominates the sea level variability at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. The diagnostic OBP based on barotropic vorticity equation has a good correlation with t...     

Linkages among halocline variability,shelf-basin interaction,and wind regimes in the Beaufort Sea demonstrated in pan-Arctic Ocean modeling framework

To address the mechanisms controlling halocline variability in the Beaufort Sea, the relationship between halocline shoaling/deepening and surface wind fields on seasonal to decadal timescales was investigated in a numerical experiment. Results from a pan-Arctic coupled sea ice-ocean model demonstrate reasonable performances for interannual and decadal variations in summer sea ice extent in the entire Arctic and in freshwater content in the Canada Basin. Shelf-basin interaction associated with Pacific summer and winter transport depends on basin-scale wind patterns and can have a significant influence on halocline variability in the southern Beaufort Sea. The eastward transport of fresh Pacific summer water along the northern Alaskan coast and Ekman downwelling north of the shelf break are commonly enhanced by cyclonic wind in the Canada Basin. On the other hand, basin-wide anti-cyclonic wind induces Ekman upwelling and blocks the eastward current in the Beaufort shelf-break region. Halocline shoaling/deepening due to shelf-water transport and surface Ekman forcing consequently occur in the same direction. North of the Barrow Canyon mouth, the springtime down-canyon transport of Pacific winter water, which forms by sea ice production in the Alaskan coastal polynya, thickens the halocline layer. The model result indicates that the penetration of Pacific winter water prevents the local upwelling of underlying basin water to the surface layer, especially in basin-scale anti-cyclonic wind periods.     

大气环流优势模态对北极海冰变化的响应Ⅰ.北极涛动

利用美国冰雪中心海冰密集度数据,分析了1979-2012年北极海冰面积的时间变化特征,发现北极海冰具有显著的年代际变化特征,分别在1997和2007年前后存在两次年代际转型突变点,相应的大气环流优势模态——北极涛动(AO)也存在显著的时空变化。1979-1996年阶段海冰下降趋势较弱并以较强的年际振荡为主,AO模态较强且显示出低频振荡特征;1997-2006年阶段北极海冰快速减退趋势占优,同时伴随着较弱的年际振荡,AO模态减弱且振荡周期缩短;2007-2012年阶段海冰范围较快下降同时具有极强的年际振荡,方差变化是前两个阶段的2~3倍,AO不仅强度加强,空间结构也发生了变化,极涡中心分别向格陵兰岛和白令海峡一侧延伸,这种结构有利于极地冷空气入侵欧洲和北美。利用ECHAM5大气模式进行的数值试验结果也证实了较强振荡的海冰强迫对AO模态的改变具有决定作用。     

Variability of Ice Conditions of the Bering Sea and Assessment of Their Possible Modeling

Oceanology - Various aspects of the seasonal and interannual variability of the sea ice cover are estimated based on all available Bering Sea ice data from 1960 to 2017. The possibility of...     

冬季婆罗洲岛西北沿岸上升流的时空特征及机理研究

Winter coastal upwelling off northwest Borneo in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated by using satellite data, climatological temperature and salinity fields and reanalysis data. The upwelling forms in December, matures in January, starts to decay in February and almost disappears in March. Both Ekman transport induced by the alongshore winter monsoon and Ekman pumping due to orographic wind stress curl are favorable for the upwelling. Transport estimates demonstrate that the month-to-month variability of Ekman transport and Ekman pumping are both consistent with that of winter coastal upwelling, but Ekman transport is two times larger than Ekman pumping in January and February. Under the influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), the upwelling shows remarkable interannual variability: during winter of El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, an anticyclonic(a cyclonic) wind anomaly is established in the SCS, which behaves a northeasterly(southwesterly) anomaly and a positive(negative) wind stress curl anomaly off the northwest Borneo coast, enhancing(reducing) the upwelling and causing anomalous surface cooling(warming) and higher(lower) chlorophyll concentration. The sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) associated with ENSO off the northwest Borneo coast has an opposite phase to that off southeast Vietnam, resulting in a SSTA seesaw pattern in the southern SCS in winter.     

Regime shift of the dominant factor for halocline depth in the Canada Basin during 1990–2008

The World Ocean Database(WOD) is used to evaluate the halocline depth simulated by an ice-ocean coupled model in the Canada Basin during 1990–2008. Statistical results show that the simulated halocline is reliable.Comparing of the September sea ice extent between simulation and SSM/I dataset, a consistent interannual variability is found between them. Moreover, both the simulated and observed September sea ice extent show staircase declines in 2000–2008 compared to 1990–1999. That supports that the abrupt variations of the ocean surface stress curl anomaly in 2000–2008 are caused by rapid sea ice melting and also in favor of the realistic existence of the simulated variations. Responses to these changes can be found in the upper ocean circulation and the intermediate current variations in these two phases as well. The analysis shows that seasonal variations of the halocline are regulated by the seasonal variations of the Ekman pumping. On interannual time scale, the variations of the halocline have an inverse relationship with the ocean surface stress curl anomaly after 2000,while this relationship no longer applies in the 1990 s. It is pointed out that the regime shift in the Canada Basin can be derived to illustrate this phenomenon. Specifically, the halocline variations are dominated by advection in the 1990 s and Ekman pumping in the 2000 s respectively. Furthermore, the regime shift is caused by changing Transpolar Drift pathway and Ekman pumping area due to spatial deformation of the center Beaufort high(BH)relative to climatology.     

Wind-driven interannual variability over the northeast Pacific Ocean

Interannual variability of the sea surface height (SSH) over the northeast Pacific Ocean is hindcast with a reduced-gravity, quasi-geostrophic model that includes linear damping. The model is forced with monthly Ekman pumping fields derived from the NCEP reanalysis wind stresses. The numerical solution is compared with SSH observations derived from satellite altimeter data and gridded at a lateral resolution of 1 degree. Provided that the reduced gravity parameter is chosen appropriately, the results demonstrate that the model has significant hindcast skill over interior regions of the basin, away from continental boundaries. A damping time scale of 2 to 3 years is close to optimal, although the hindcast skill is not strongly dependent on this parameter.A simplification of the quasi-geostrophic model is considered in which Rossby waves are eliminated, yielding a Markov model driven by local Ekman pumping. The results approximately reproduce the hindcast skill of the more complete quasi-geostrophic model and indicate that the interannual SSH variability is dominated by the local response to wind forcing. There is a close correspondence the two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the local model and those of the observed SSH anomalies. The latter account for over half of the variance of the interannual signal over the region.     

Simulating present climate of the global ocean–ice system using the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM): simulation characteristics and variability in the Pacific sector

A long-term spin-up and a subsequent interannual simulation are conducted for the ocean–ice component of the climate model intercomparison project (CMIP)-class earth system model of the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute. This experiment has three purposes: first is to assess the ability of our model with the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs) forcing in reproducing the present ocean-climate; second is to understand the ocean-climate variability for the past 60 years; third is to present an example of evaluating an ocean–ice interannual variability simulation. The Pacific Ocean is focused on for the last two purposes. After integrating for about 1500 years with repeated use of a detrended CORE interannual forcing, the model reaches a quasi-steady state where the present climate is reproduced satisfactorily. Then, the interannual variability simulation is conducted with the retrieved forcing trend and the result is analyzed. The simulation is successful at reproducing the long-term variability in the Pacific and surrounding oceans. Brief analyses of the tropical and mid-latitude upper layer, deep circulation, and the Arctic sea ice are presented. A caveat in treating other parts of the globe is due to the recent intense convection in the Southern Ocean caused by a remarkably increasing trend of the Southern Hemisphere westerly. Overall, the current simulation with our CMIP-class ocean–ice model is shown to be useful for studying the present ocean-climate variability, specifically in the Pacific sector. It could also be used as a benchmark control experiment that facilitates further research, model development, and intercomparison.     

Descending surface water at the antarctic marginal ice zone and its contribution to intermediate water: An ice-ocean model

This study concerns the unique physical mechanism of Ekman convergence at the marginal ice zone (ECMIZ) produced by the difference between air-ice drag and air-water drag. A coupled ice-ocean model is used to show the strength and distribution of the ECMIZ with respect to Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation, which is important for the uptake of carbon dioxide. Strong ECMIZ occurs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors from July to October, matched in time and space with ice melting, while it is significantly weaker due to strongly divergent background winds in the Indian sector. Transport analysis by artificial tracer experiments reveals the interannual variability of the ECMIZ correlates well with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The downward transport of surface water at the MIZ during a positive SAM (2001) is about 1.4 times as large as that during a negative SAM (2000). In particular the transport in the Atlantic sector is twice that in the Pacific sector in both years. Once the downward flux is analyzed in isolation, the contribution from synoptic scale variability is found to increase the volume transport of surface water in the eastern region of the Pacific. Assuming strong isopycnal mixing, we suggest that ECMIZ is an important mechanism supplying surface water to the formation of AAIW, and its zonal variability is responsible for the interbasin differences in AAIW properties. In particular, the increased ECMIZ and surface melt water input in the Atlantic sector would produce AAIW that is colder and fresher than in the Pacific.