The distribution and variability of simulated chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean from five CMIP5 models

Performances of 5 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated. Results show that these models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed chlorophyll concentration and reproduce the maximum chlorophyll concentration over the western part of the Arabian Sea, around the tip of the Indian subcontinent, and in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. The seasonal evolution of chlorophyll concentration over these regions is also reproduced with significant amplitude diversity among models. All of 5 models is able to simulate the interannual variability of chlorophyll concentration. The maximum interannual variation occurs at the same regions where the maximum climatological chlorophyll concentration is located. Further analysis also reveals that the Indian Ocean Dipole events have great impact on chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Indian Ocean. In the general successful simulation of chlorophyll concentration, most of the CMIP5 models present higher than normal chlorophyll concentration in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.     

Relationships of interannual variability between the equatorial pacific and tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) between the tropical Pacific (TP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOB) together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming (cooling) takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an El Niño (La Niña) in almost all the models. In some models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5), positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models (e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES).     

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.     

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) and upper ocean heat content(HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean.The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon(SWASM)(2.5°–20°N,35°–70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon(SEASM)(2.5°–20°N,70°–110°E).Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift,the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean.The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow.The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO.After the 1976/77 shift,there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM.However,before that shift,their relationship was weak.     

亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流的关系

为研究亚非夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其与热带东风急流的相关性,利用1948-2008年61年NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解和奇异值分解等方法讨论了亚非夏季风降水的变化及其与热带东风急流的关系。结果表明：从包括撒赫勒在内的北非地区到印度西北部、青藏高原南部,直到中国华北东北地区,是亚非夏季降水的最主要的空间分布型式。亚非夏季风降水总体呈现出逐年递减的趋势。多年亚非季风区夏季降水分布与热带东风急流的强度有密切关系,在急流不同部位降水特征不同。亚非夏季风降水与热带东风急流呈显著正相关,二者的分布趋势在极大程度上吻合。     

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the “oceanic channel dynamics” and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.     

Impact of El Nino on Large—scale Circulation of Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

Multi-year SST and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind data were employed to study the impacts of El Nino on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM),It was found that the impacts of El Nino on the SEASM differed distinctly from those on the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon(ISM).Composite analysis indicated that the “gear point“of coupling between the Indo-mosoon circulation and the Pacific-Walker circulation was located in the western margins of Southeast Asia when the developing stage of El Nino events covered the boreal summer.The anomalous circulations in the lower and upper troposphere and divergent circulation are all favorable for the strengthening of the SEASM during this period.Following the evolution of El Nino,the “gear point“ of the two cells shifted eastward to the central Pacific when the mature or decaying period of El Nino events covered the boreal summer.The anomalous circulations are favorable for the weakening of the SEASM ,The anomalous indexes of intenstity of SEASM accord well with the above resultsl.Additionally,the difference of SSTA patterns in the tropical In-do-Pacific OCean between the two stages of the El Nino may play an important role.     

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.     

Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Southern Flood and Northern Drought’ pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Northern Flood and Southern Drought’ pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the ’Silk Road’ teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.     

Impact of El Nio on Large-scale Circulation of Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

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热带次表层海温对中国东部夏季气候的影响

热带海洋热状况是影响中国气候变化的主要因子之一,为了研究热带次表层海温如何影响中国气候,通过相关计算和合成分析等方法讨论了热带太平洋至印度洋次表层海温异常对中国东部夏季降水和温度的影响。结果表明:当冬季赤道东印度洋至西太平洋次表层海温偏暖(偏冷),中印度洋和东太平洋次表层海温偏冷(偏暖),夏季,长江中下游地区降水偏少(偏多),华南、华北和东北大部地区降水偏多(偏少);中国东部大范围高温(低温)。其可能的影响途径为,东亚夏季风环流对热带次表层海温异常的响应导致了其年际变化,进而引起中国东部夏季气候的异常分布。     

Does the Asian monsoon modulate tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea?

To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.     

An analysis of the causes of decadal variations of rainfall in Shandong in summer

The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA).     

夏冬季热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度年际异常的年代际变化

用Nino 3指数、印度洋单极指数、偶极子指数描述热带太平洋、印度洋海表温度 (SST)的年际异常 ,季节分析表明 :冬季Nino3区与热带印度洋海表温度距平 (SSTA)相互关系表现为单极 ,且 1976年以后两者的相互关系减弱 ,其可能原因 :一是冬季是ENSO(厄尔尼诺 )事件的盛期 ;二是冬季西太平洋暖水区东移 ,造成两洋的垂直纬向环流耦合减弱。夏季两者相互关系表现为偶极 ,1976年以后两者的相互关系加强 ,其可能原因 ,一是夏季是偶极子盛期 ,ENSO事件的发展期 ;二是夏季西太平洋暖水区虽然东移 ,但暖水区位置偏北 ,且东南印度洋的上升支强度增大 ,造成两洋的纬向环流耦合更强烈     

Influences of two types of El Ni?o event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the Had ISST1 and NCEP datasets,we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Ni?o event(CP-EL)and eastern Pacific El Ni?o event(EP-EL)on the Sea Surface Temperature(SST)anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean.Considering the remote ef fect of Indian Ocean warming,we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific,which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate.Results show that during the El Ni?o developing year of EP-EL,cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean.At the end of that autumn,all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs.However,considering the statistical significance,more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year.For further research,EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(EPI-EL)and CP El Ni?o accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(CPI-EL)events are classified.With the remote ef fects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies,the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific.For the EPI-EL developing year,large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May,and persist to the autumn of the El Ni?o decaying year.However,for the CPI-EL,weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Ni?o decaying spring.Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean,distinct zonal SST gradient,atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Ni?o decaying years.Specifically,the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years,can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean.The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific.As a result,a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally.Furthermore,the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL.Af fected by the local WindEvaporation-SST(WES)positive feedback,the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year,which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.     

Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: A multi-member study with CCSM4

Based on a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated with a six member ensemble of simulations for the period 1850–2100. The model can simulate the IOD features realistically, including the east-west dipole pattern and the phase locking in boreal autumn. The ensemble analysis suppresses internal variability and isolates the radiative forced response. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, a weakening of the Walker circulation leads to the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the shoaling thermocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and sea surface temperature and precipitation changes show an IOD-like pattern in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the thermocline feedback intensifies with shoaling, the interannual variability of the IOD mode surprisingly weakens under global warming. The zonal wind feedback of IOD is found to weaken as well, due to decreased precipitation in the EEIO. Therefore, the atmospheric feedback decreases much more than the oceanic feedback increases, causing the decreased IOD variance in this model.     

Southern ocean SST variability and its relationship with ENSO on inter-decadal time scales

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Hemisphere (0°-60°S). In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest- north-east direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with El Nio and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.     

The link between interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and summer precipitation in Shandong Province

Relationship between the onset date of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Shandong Province was examined by comprehensive analysis to establish a conceptual model of the link. If the summer monsoon occurs earlier, the 500 hPa level would induce the teleconnection of Eurasian pattern in the summer (June-August), which indicates that the western Pacific subtropical high is displaced northward further than usual, the Siberian high is intensified and the Okhotsk low is deepened. Under such circumstance, Shandong, located in the west side of the subtropical high and in front of the mid-Siberia high, would be expected to have a wet summer because it is quite possible for cold and warm air to meet and interact with each other in Shandong. Statistical analysis revealed that the 500 hPa anomalies over Korea and Japan were sensitive to the SCS monsoon onset date and very important to precipitation in Shandong, and that the convective activities over the deep water basin in the SCS in 24-26 pentads significantly influenced the position of the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high. These findings yielded better understanding of the causative mechanisms involved in the precipitation generation, so that the knowledge gained can possibly be applied for long-lead forecast.     

贵州与印度的夏季风的异同分析

季风作了气象科学的一个重要课题，许多人都作了大量研究，中国和印度均处于季风区，印度季风和中国季风的研究已作了大量研究，揭露了不少事实，但中国季风的研究多指我国的东部，而贵州位于我国西南部，地处东亚季风和印度季风之间的过渡区，因此，对贵州省的论及较少，从气候的角度出发，把贵州和印度的季风的某些特征量，如降雨、风、环流等进行对比分析，在一定程度上反映了贵州和印度夏季风的主要异同。     

Historical temporal variation in precipitation over Western Himalayan Region: 1857-2006

This study has examined the temporal variation in monthly, seasonal annual precipitation over the Western Himalayan Region(WHR) and the influence of global teleconnections, like the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Southern Oscillation(SO) Indices on seasonal annual precipitation. The Mann–Kendall non-parametric test is applied for trend detection and the Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test is used to detect possible shift. Maximum entropy spectral analysis is applied to find the periodicity in annual seasonal precipitation. The study shows a non-significant decreasing trend in annual precipitation over WHR for the period 1857-2006. However, in seasonal precipitation, a significant decreasing trend is observed in monsoon and a significant increasing trend in post-monsoon season during the same period. The significant decrease in monsoon precipitation may be due to weakening of its teleconnection with NAO as well as SO Indices mainly during last three decades. It is observed that the probable change of year in annual monsoon precipitation over WHR is 1979. The study also shows significant periodicities of 2.3-2.9 years and of 3.9-4.7 years in annual seasonal precipitation over WHR.