Deterministic Approach for the Seismic Microzonation of Bucharest

— The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method which combines the modal summation technique, valid for laterally homogeneous anelastic media, with finite-differences technique, and optimizes the advantages of both methods. For recent earthquakes, it is possible to validate the modeling by comparing the synthetic seismograms with the records. We consider for our computations the frequency range from 0.05 to 1.0 Hz and control the synthetic signals against the accelerograms of the Magurele station, low-pass filtered with a cut-off frequency of 1.0 Hz of the 3 last major strong (M_w > 6) Vrancea earthquakes. Using the hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation, scaled for the source dimensions and relatively simple regional (bedrock) and local structure models, we succeeded in reproducing the recorded ground motion in Bucharest at a satisfactory level for seismic engineering. Extending the modeling to the entire territory of the Bucharest area, we construct a new seismic microzonation map, where five different zones are identified by their characteristic response spectra.     

Deterministic earthquake damage and loss assessment for the city of Bucharest, Romania

On March 4, 1977, an earthquake with a moment magnitude M _w 7.4 at a hypocentral depth of 94 km hit the Vrancea region (Romania). In Bucharest alone, the earthquake caused severe damage to 33,000 buildings while 1,424 people were killed. Under the umbrella of the SAFER project, the city of Bucharest, being one of the larger European cities at risk, was chosen as a test bed for the estimation of damage and connected losses in case of a future large magnitude earthquake in the Vrancea area. For the conduct of these purely deterministic damage and loss computations, the open-source software SELENA is applied. In order to represent a large event in the Vrancea region, a set of deterministic scenarios were defined by combining ranges of focal parameters, i.e., magnitude, focal depth, and epicentral location. Ground motion values are computed by consideration of different ground motion prediction equations that are believed to represent earthquake attenuation effects in the region. Variations in damage and loss estimates are investigated through considering different sets of building vulnerability curves (provided by HAZUS-MH and various European authors) to characterize the damaging behavior of prevalent building typologies in the city of Bucharest.     

Advanced real-time acquisition of the Vrancea earthquake early warning system

The Vrancea seismogenic zone in Romania represents a peculiar source of seismic hazard, which is a major concern in Europe, especially to neighboring regions of Bulgaria, Serbia and Republic of Moldavia. Earthquakes in the Carpathian–Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. One of the cities most affected by earthquakes in Europe is Bucharest. Situated at 140–170 km distance from Vrancea epicenter zone, Bucharest encountered many damages due to high energy Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes; the March 4, 1977 event (M_w=7.2) produced the collapse of 36 buildings with 8–12 levels, while more than 150 old buildings were seriously damaged. A dedicated set of applications and a method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4–5 s from detection of P wave in the epicenter were developed. They were tested on all recorded data. The magnitude error for 77.9% of total considered events is in the interval [−0.3, +0.3] magnitude units. This is acceptable taking into account that the magnitude is computed from only 3 stations in a 5 s time interval (1 s delay is caused by data packing). The ability to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude combined with powerful real-time software, as parts of an early warning system, allows us to send earthquake warning to Bucharest in real time, in about 5 s after detection in the epicenter. This allows 20–27 s warning time to automatically issue preventive actions at the warned facility.     

Test of the Empirical Green's Function Deconvolution on Vrancea (Romania) Subcrustal Earthquakes

Vrancea is one of the few singular seismic regions of the world where intermediate-depth earthquakes are permanently generated (around 10 events/month with M _L > 3) within an extremely confined focal volume. This particularity and the relatively large number of short-period waveforms recorded by the Romanian local network provides us the opportunity to test the performance of the empirical Green's function technique in retrieving the source time function and source directivity of the Vrancea earthquakes. Three earthquakes that occurred on March 11, 1983 (M _L = 5.4), April 12, 1983 (M _L = 5.1) and August 7, 1984 (M _L = 5.1) in the lower part of the subducting lithosphere (h 150 km) were analyzed. A set of 28 adjacent events (3.0 < M _L < 4.4) which occurred between 1981 and 1997 were selected as corresponding empirical Green's functions. To test the confidence of the retrieved source time function, we compare the deconvolved pulses using Green's functions of different sizes and recorded simultaneously by short-period and broad-band instruments. Our tests show that the durations of the source time function is well-constrained and is not affected by the limited frequency range of the short-period instruments, or by the relative difference in the focal mechanism between the main event and Green's event. The apparent duration of the source time function outlines source directivity effects, and when these effects are sufficiently strong, they can identify the real fault plane. Relatively short source duration and correspondingly high stress drop values are in agreement with other previous results emphasizing a specific seismic regime in the lower part of the Vrancea subducting lithosphere.     

Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area

Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.     

Seismic source-parameter relations for earthquakes in Greece

A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM ₀ and magnitudeM _s andm _b and betweenM ₀ andM _s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.     

Large earthquake doublets and fault plane heterogeneity in the northern Solomon Islands subduction zone

In the Solomon Islands and New Britain subduction zones, the largest earthquakes commonly occur as pairs with small separation in time, space and magnitude. This doublet behavior has been attributed to a pattern of fault plane heterogeneity consisting of closely spaced asperities such that the failure of one asperity triggers slip in adjacent asperities. We analyzed body waves of the January 31, 1974,M _w =7.3, February 1, 1974,M _w =7.4, July 20, 1975 (1437)M _w =7.6 and July 20, 1975 (1945),M _w =7.3 doublet events using an iterative, multiple station inversion technique to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic moment release associated with these events. Although the 1974 doublet has smaller body wave moments than the 1975 events, their source histories are more complicated, lasting over 40 seconds and consisting of several subevents located near the epicentral regions. The second 1975 event is well modeled by a simple point source initiating at a depth of 15 km and rupturing an approximate 20 km region about the epicenter. The source history of the first 1975 event reveals a westerly propagating rupture, extending about 50 km from its hypocenter at a depth of 25 km. The asperities of the 1975 events are of comparable size and do not overlap one another, consistent with the asperity triggering hypothesis. The relatively large source areas and small seismic moments of the 1974 doublet events indicate failure of weaker portions of the fault plane in their epicentral regions. Variations in the roughness of the bathymetry of the subducting plate, accompanying subduction of the Woodlark Rise, may be responsible for changes in the mechanical properties of the plate interface.To understand how variations in fault plane coupling and strength affect the interplate seismicity pattern, we relocated 85 underthrusting earthquakes in the northern Solomon Islands Are since 1964. Relatively few smaller magnitude underthrusting events overlap the Solomon Islands doublet asperity regions, where fault coupling and strength are inferred to be the greatest. However, these asperity regions have been the sites of several previous earthquakes withM _s 7.0. The source regions of the 1974 doublet events, which we infer to be mechanically weak, contain many smaller magnitude events but have not generated any otherM _s 7.0 earthquakes in the historic past. The central portion of the northern Solomon Islands Arc between the two largest doublet events in 1971 (studied in detail bySchwartz et al., 1989a) and 1975 contains the greatest number of smaller magnitude underthrusting earthquakes. The location of this small region sandwiched between two strongly coupled portions of the plate interface suggest that it may be the site of the next large northern Solomon Islands earthquake. However, this region has experienced no known earthquakes withM _s 7.0 and may represent a relatively aseismic portion of the subduction zone.     

Uncertainties in the estimation of earthquake magnitudes in Greece

Instrumental magnitudes in Greece have been reported as: a) Mmagnitudes based on the records of the Wiechert or Mainka seismographs,b) M_LGR magnitudes based on the records of the Wood-Anderson(WA) seismographs (T_o = 0.8 sec, V_effective 1000) or othershort period seismographs calibrated against WA records and,c) M_LSM magnitudes based on strong motion records(accelerograms). Comparison of such magnitudes with momentmagnitudes, M_w, for 329 earthquakes, with epicenters in thebroader Aegean area, performed in this study, showedthat M, M_LGR+0.5 and M_LSM are practically equalto M_w, with a small overall standard error ( = 0.23).Therefore, equivalent moment magnitudes, M_w ^*,estimated from these magnitudes and reported in the catalogues of theGeophysical Laboratory of the University of Thessaloniki are equal tomoment magnitudes for all practical purposes with reasonable uncertainties.It has been further shown that surface wave magnitudes, M_s,for M_s <6.0, can be also transferred into momentmagnitudes, M_w ^*, but the larger uncertaintiesencountered make its use rather problematic.     

Dynamic properties of the Quaternary sedimentary rocks and their influence on seismic site effects. Case study in Bucharest City,Romania

Bucharest is one of the cities most affected by earthquakes in Europe. Situated at 150–170 km distance from Vrancea epicentral zone, Bucharest had suffered many damages due to high energy Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes. For example, the 4 March 1977 event produced the collapse of 32 buildings with 8–12 levels, while more than 150 old buildings with 6–9 levels were seriously damaged. The studies done after this earthquake had shown the importance of the surface geological structure upon ground motion parameters. New seismic measurements are performed in Bucharest area aiming at defining better elastic and dynamic properties of the shallow sedimentary rocks. Down-hole seismic measurements were performed in a number of 10 cased boreholes drilled in the Bucharest City area. Processing and interpretation of the data lead to the conclusion that shallow sedimentary rocks can be considered weak in the area, down to 150–200 m depth. Seismic wave velocity values and bulk density values presented in the paper associated with local geology are useful primary data in the seismic microzonation of Bucharest City. They are used as 1D models to derive transfer functions and response spectra for the stack of sedimentary rocks in several parts of Bucharest area, leading to a better knowledge of the local site amplification and associated frequency spectra. In a recent study the H/V spectral ratio using Nakamura’s method was applied on the seismic noise measurements in 22 sites in Bucharest City in order to derive the fundamental period associated with these sites. The values confirm the previous results, showing a dominant resonance in the period range of 1.25–1.75 s. The fundamental periods obtained with Nakamura’s method are in good agreement with those computed on the basis of geological and geotechnical data in boreholes, which show an increase of the fundamental period in the Bucharest area from south to north, in the same direction as the increase of the thickness of the Quaternary deposits above the Fratesti layer which is considered the bedrock in the area.     

Re-visiting large historical earthquakes in the Colombian Eastern Cordillera

A re-assessment of the historic seismicity of the central sector of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) is made by revision of bibliographic sources, by calibration with modern instrumental earthquakes, and by interpretations in terms of current knowledge of the tectonics and seismicity of the region. Throughout the process we have derived an equation to estimate M_w for shallow crustal earthquakes in Colombia using the length of isoseismal VIII, L_VIII:

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

Source parameters of four strong earthquakes in Bulgaria and Portugal at the beginning of the 20th century

Using original seismograph records and bulletin data we re-determined theorigin time, location, seismic moment (M₀) and magnitudes(M_S and M_w) for four earthquakes in the beginning of the20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 nearKrupnik, Bulgaria (M_w = 6.8, M_S = 7.2 respectively), the April 231909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (M_S = 6.3), and the June14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (M_S = 6.3).Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a largenumber of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistentmethodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumentalinformation is presented.In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of theoriginal data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumentalepicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates weobtained (2.3 10¹⁸ M₀ 3.9 10¹⁹Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitudeestimates (6.3 M_S 7.2 and 6.2 M_w 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previousestimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskovand Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event ourestimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco andSykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismicactive regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences forhazard estimates in those regions.     

Water uptake and equilibrium sizes of aerosol particles at high relative humidities: Their dependence on the composition of the water-soluble material

Equilibrium water uptake and the sizes of atmospheric aerosol particles have for the first time been determined for high relative humidities, i.e., for humidities above 95 percent, as a function of the particles chemical composition. For that purpose a new treatment of the osmotic coefficient has been developed and experimentally confirmed. It is shown that the equilibrium water uptake and the equilibrium sizes of atmospheric aerosol particles at large relative humidities are significantly dependent on their chemical composition.List of symbols A proportionality factor - a _w activity of water in a solution - c _{p v} specific heat of water vapour at constant pressure - c _w specific heat of liquid water - f relative humidity - l _w specific heat of evaporation of water - M _i molar mass of solute speciesi - M _s mean molar mass of all the solute species in a solution - M _w molar mass of water - m ₀ mass of an aerosol particle in dry state - m _i mass of solute speciesi - m _s mass of solute - m _w mass of water taken up by an aerosol particle in equilibrium state - m total molality=number of mols of solute species in 1000 g of water - m _i molality of solute speciesi - m _k total molality of a pure electrolytek - O(m ²) remaining terms being of the second and of higher powers ofm - p ⁺ standard pressure - p total pressure of the gas phase - p pressure within a droplet - p ₁,p ₂,p ₃ coefficients in the expansion of M - p _1i, p_2i, p_3i specific parameters of ioni - p _s saturation vapour pressure - p _w water vapour pressure - R _w individual gas constant of water - r radius of a droplet - r ₀ equivalent volume radius of an aerosol particle in dry state - T temperature - T ₀ standard temperature - T ₁ temperature of the pure water drop in the osmometer - v _w specific volume of pure water - z _i valence of ioni - _i relativenumber concentration of ioni in a solution - correction term due to the adsorption of ions at liquid-solid interfaces - activity coefficient of solute speciesi in a solution, related to molalities - I bridge current - T temperature difference between solution and pure water drop in the osmometer - exponential mass increase coefficient - _w specific chemical potential of water vapour - _w specific chemical potential of water - ⁰ _w specific chemical potential of pure water vapour - ⁰ _w specific chemical potential of pure water - ₀ density of an aerosol particle in dry state - _w density of pure water - surface tension of a droplet - ₀ surface tension of pure water, i.e., at infinite dilution of the solute - osmotic coefficient - _k osmotic coefficient of a solution of a pure electrolytek - _k osmotic coefficient of a solution of a mixed solute - _M fugacity coefficient of water vapour - ^s _{i=1 i} z ² _i This work is part of a Ph.D. thesis carried out at the Meteorological Institute of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

Large-scale aseismic creep in the areas of the strong earthquakes revealed from the GRACE data on the time variations of the Earth’s gravity field

The refinement of the accuracy and resolution of the monthly global gravity field models from the GRACE satellite mission, together with the accumulation of more than a decade-long series of these models, enabled us to reveal the processes that occur in the regions of large (M_w≥8) earthquakes that have not been studied previously. The previous research into the time variations of the gravity field in the regions of the giant earthquakes, such as the seismic catastrophes in Sumatra (2004) and Chile (2010), and the Tohoku mega earthquake in Japan (2011), covered the coseismic gravity jump followed by the long postseismic changes reaching almost the same amplitude. The coseismic gravity jumps resulting from the lower-magnitude events are almost unnoticeable. However, we have established a long steady growth of gravity anomalies after a number of such earthquakes. For instance, in the regions of the subduction earthquakes, the growth of the positive gravity anomaly above the oceanic trench was revealed after two events with magnitudes M_w=8.5 in the Sumatra region (the Nias earthquake of March 2005 and the Bengkulu event of September 2007 near the southern termination of Sumatra Island), after the earthquake with M_w=8.5 on Hokkaido in September 2007, a doublet Simushir earthquake with the magnitudes M_w = 8.3 and 8.1 in the Kuriles in November 2006 and January 2007, and after the earthquake off the Samoa Island in September 2009 (M_w=8.1). The steady changes in the gravity field have also been recorded after the earthquake in the Sichuan region (May 2008, M_w = 8.0) and after the doublet event with magnitudes 8.6 and 8.2, which occurred in the Wharton Basin of the Indian Ocean on April 11, 2012. The detailed analysis of the growth of the positive anomaly in gravity after the Simushir earthquake of November 2006 is presented. The growth started a few months after the event synchronously with the seismic activation on the downdip extension of the coseismically ruptured fault plane zone. The data demonstrating the increasing depth of the aftershocks since March 2007 and the approximately simultaneous change in the direction and average velocity of the horizontal surface displacements at the sites of the regional GPS network indicate that this earthquake induced postseismic displacements in a huge area extending to depths below 100 km. The total displacement since the beginning of the growth of the gravity anomaly up to July 2012 is estimated at 3.0 m in the upper part of the plate’s contact and 1.5 m in the lower part up to a depth of 100 km. With allowance for the size of the region captured by the deformations, the released total energy is equivalent to the earthquake with the magnitude M_w = 8.5. In our opinion, the growth of the gravity anomaly in these regions indicates a large-scale aseismic creep over the areas much more extensive than the source zone of the earthquake. These processes have not been previously revealed by the ground-based techniques. Hence, the time series of the GRACE gravity models are an important source of the new data about the locations and evolution of the locked segments of the subduction zones and their seismic potential.     

Determination of source duration and moment of earthquakes in the Indian Peninsula using love waveforms

Love waves recorded by a long-period seismograph at New Delhi (NDI) from seven earthquakes of magnitude 4.3 to 5.2 in Koyna and Bhatsa on the western coast and one earthquake in Ongole on the eastern coast of the Indian Peninsula have been used to determine the seismic moment for each of the earthquakes by waveform modeling. Transverse component of the synthetic seismogram shows that the maximum amplitude of waveform decreases with an increase of source duration. Thus for an evaluation of the seismic moment by equating the amplitude level of the observed and synthetic waveforms, we must know the source duration. The synthetic seismogram also indicates that a short source duration gives rise to a small but sharp pulse and this pulse is interpreted as anLg wave. Comparison of the observed and synthetic waveforms has been used for a simultaneous evaluation of the source duration and seismic moment. The source durations are found to vary between 2.2 and 4.4 s; for earthquakes with a magnitude range between 4.3 and 5.2 these durations are slightly higher than normal. We obtain moment (M ₀) of Ongole earthquake (M _L =5.1)as 1.7×10²⁴ dyne-cm; moments of Koyna and Bhatsa earthquakes (4.3M _L 5.2) on the western coast lie between 0.7×10²³ and 3.6×10²³ dyne-cm. Moment (M ₀)-magnitude (M _L ) relation logM ₀=1.5M _L +16.0 for the western United States region agrees as well, in general, with the results for the earthquakes in the Indian Peninsula.     

Humidity effects on gravitational settling and Brownian diffusion of atmospheric aerosol particles

The dependency on relative humidity of the settling velocity of aerosol particles in stagnant air and of the diffusion coefficient due to Brownian motion of aerosol particles was computed for six aerosol types and different particles sizes in dry state. The computations are based (1) on mean bulk densities of dry aerosol particles obtained from measurements or from the knowledge of the chemical composition of the particles, (2) on micro-balance measurements of the water uptake per unit mass of dry aerosol substance versus water activity at thermodynamic equilibrium, and (3) on measurements of the equilibrium water activity of aqueous sea salt solutions. The results show a significant dependence of the settling velocity and Brownian diffusion of aerosol particles on relative humidity and on the particle's chemical composition.Nomenclature A surface parameter of a particle - B surface parameter of a particle - c _L velocity of sound in moist air - C 1+Kn[A+Qexp(–B/Kn]=slip correction - D diffusion coefficient of a particle - D ₁ D(=1)=diffusion coefficient of a spherical particle - f P _w /P _we (T,P)=relative humidity (f=0 dry air,f=1 saturated air) - g acceleration due to gravity - g |g| - k 1.3804×10^–16 erg/°K=Boltzmann constant - Kn _L /r=Knudsen number of a particle - Kn _{0 0L} /r ₀=Knudsen number of a dry particle - m 4r ³/3=mass of a particle - m _L 4r ³ _L /3=mass of the moist air displaced by a particle - M mobility of a particle - M ₀ molar mass of dry air - M _w molar mass of water - Ma |u–u _L |/c _L =Mach number of the particles motion relative to the ambient air - n particle number per unit volume of air - P P ₀+P _w =pressure of the moist air - P ₀ partial pressure of the dry air - P _w partial pressure of the water vapour - P _we P _we (T,P)=equilibrium partial water vapour pressure over a plane surface of water saturated with air - Q surface parameter of a particle - r equivalent radius of a particle (radius of a sphere with the particles volume) - r ₀ equivalent radius of a particle in dry state - R 1+0.13Re ^0.85=inertia correction - R ₀ specific gas constant of dry air - R _w specific gas constant of water - Re 2r _L u–u _L / _L =Reynolds number of the particles motion relative to the ambient air - t time - T absolute temperature - u velocity of a particle - u (amount of the) settling velocity of a particle in stagnant air - u ₁ u(=1)=(amount of the) settling velocity of a spherical particle in stagnant air - u _L velocity of the ambient moist air (far enough from the particle where the flow pattern remains undistorted) - W drag coefficient of a particles equivalent sphere - empirical parameter in equation (3.1) - dynamic viscosity of a particles liquid cover - _L dynamic viscosity of moist air - _0L dynamic viscosity of dry air (at the same pressure and temperature like the moist air) - celsius temperature - dynamic shape factor of a particle (=1 for a sphere) - ₀ dynamic shape factor of a dry particle - _L mean free path of the molecules in moist air - _0L mean free path of the molecules in dry air (at the same pressure and temperature like the moist air) - _Po mean free path of the molecules in dry air at the pressureP ₀ of the dry air and the temperature given - factor of solid to liquid change-over (=1 for a solid particle) - mean bulk density of a particle - _L density of the moist air - _0L density of the dry air at the same pressure and temperature like the moist air - ₀ mean bulk density of a dry particle - ₀ mean diameter of the molecules of dry air - _w diameter of water molecules - relaxation time of a particle - gradient operation - 3.141593     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

Acceleration Time Histories for a Scenario Earthquake in Moscow at Sites with Different Soil Conditions

According to general seismic zoning maps, Moscow is in an area with a seismic intensity of 5, in which the maximum seismic effect is expected from remote deep-focal earthquakes in the Vrancea zone (Eastern Carpathians, Romania). In our previous studies, an earthquake with a hypocenter at a depth of 80–150 km in the Vrancea zone, a moment magnitude of M_w = 8.0, and a drop in stress of Δσ = 325 bar was used as a scenario earthquake for Moscow. A series of model acceleration time histories for ground vibrations was calculated for this earthquake for the reference local conditions of the Moskva seismic station (Moscow, Pyzhevskii per. 3). In this paper, these acceleration time histories are used to calculate the acceleration time histories and estimate the ground vibration parameters for an scenario earthquake at other sites on the territory of Moscow for which information on soil conditions is available. Since the epicentral distance is large (~1300 km), it can be assumed that changes in the shape and spectral content of the acceleration time histories at different sites in Moscow are only caused by different local conditions.