Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for spatially correlated data

The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test is a convenient method for investigating whether two underlying univariate probability distributions can be regarded as undistinguishable from each other or whether an underlying probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution. Application of the test requires that the sample be unbiased and the outcomes be independent and identically distributed, conditions that are violated in several degrees by spatially continuous attributes, such as topographical elevation. A generalized form of the bootstrap method is used here for the purpose of modeling the distribution of the statistic D of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The innovation is in the resampling, which in the traditional formulation of bootstrap is done by drawing from the empirical sample with replacement presuming independence. The generalization consists of preparing resamplings with the same spatial correlation as the empirical sample. This is accomplished by reading the value of unconditional stochastic realizations at the sampling locations, realizations that are generated by simulated annealing. The new approach was tested by two empirical samples taken from an exhaustive sample closely following a lognormal distribution. One sample was a regular, unbiased sample while the other one was a clustered, preferential sample that had to be preprocessed. Our results show that the p-value for the spatially correlated case is always larger that the p-value of the statistic in the absence of spatial correlation, which is in agreement with the fact that the information content of an uncorrelated sample is larger than the one for a spatially correlated sample of the same size.     

The influence of serial correlation on the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median

The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistical test for assessing the significance of a shift in median or mean requires a tested series to be serially independent. However, hydrological time series such as water quality, streamflow, and others may frequently display serial correlation. In such cases, the existence of serial correlation might alter the ability of the test to detect a shift in mean. This study investigates this issue by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results indicate that: (i) when there is no shift or a moderate shift in mean, the existence of positive serial correlation will increase the possibility to reject the null hypothesis of no shift while it might be true; and the existence of negative serial correlation will reduce the possibility to detect a shift; (ii) when a bigger shift occurs in a time series, for a series with smaller sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is similar to that in (i), but it is much less than that in (i); while for a series with larger sample size, the influence of serial correlation on the test is opposite to (i), i.e., positive serial correlation reduces the power of the test for detecting a shift while negative serial correlation slightly increases the power of the test for identifying a shift; and (iii) removal of serial correlation by pre-whitening can effectively remove the serial correlation and eliminate the influence of the serial correlation on the test.     

Global test of seismic static stress triggering model

Introduction Whether static stress change generated by earthquakes can trigger subsequent earthquakes heretofore is still in debate. Some researchers believe that seismic Coulomb failure stress change generated by earthquake can affect the seismicity nearby (King, et al, 1994; Toda, et al, 1998; Stein, 1999; Seeber, Armbruster, 2000). However, some researchers believe that this model is wrong. For example, Beroza and Zoback (1993) found that stress change generated by the 1989 Loma Prieta …     

Assessment of modified Anderson–Darling test statistics for the generalized extreme value and generalized logistic distributions

An important problem in frequency analysis is the selection of an appropriate probability distribution for a given sample data. This selection is generally based on goodness-of-fit tests. The goodness-of-fit method is an effective means of examining how well a sample data agrees with an assumed probability distribution as its population. However, the goodness of fit test based on empirical distribution functions gives equal weight to differences between empirical and theoretical distribution functions corresponding to all observations. To overcome this drawback, the modified Anderson–Darling test was suggested by Ahmad et al. (1988b). In this study, the critical values of the modified Anderson–Darling test statistics are revised using simulation experiments with extensions of the shape parameters for the GEV and GLO distributions, and a power study is performed to test the performance of the modified Anderson–Darling test. The results of the power study show that the modified Anderson–Darling test is more powerful than traditional tests such as the χ², Kolmogorov–Smirnov, and Cramer von Mises tests. In addition, to compare the results of these goodness-of-fit tests, the modified Anderson–Darling test is applied to the annual maximum rainfall data in Korea.     

Random field characteristics of earthquake occurrence and test of earthquake occurrence rate

ＲａｎｄｏｍｆｉｅｌｄｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅａｎｄｔｅｓｔｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅｒａｔｅＭｅｎｇ－ＴａｎＧＡＯ（高孟潭）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，Ｓｔａｔｅ...     

Evaluating simplified models in predicting global seismic responses of a shake table–test building isolated by triple friction pendulum bearings

This paper evaluates the ability of simplified superstructure models, including two shear frame models and a single-story model, in predicting global responses of a full-scale five-story steel moment-frame buildings isolated by triple friction pendulum bearings subjected to earthquake motions. The investigated responses include displacement of the isolation system, roof drift, story drift, and floor acceleration. Mechanical properties of the simplified superstructure models were derived from the modal information of a verified full 3-D model. The comparison between the analytical responses and experimental responses shows that the simplified models can well predict the displacement of the isolation system. Furthermore, the shear-frame models are adequate for predicting floor acceleration when the specimen is subjected to horizontal ground motions. However, when the specimen is subjected to 3-D motions, the shear-frame models un-conservatively predict floor acceleration. The full 3-D model improves the prediction of story drift compared with the simplified models for both horizontal and 3-D motions.     

Bayesian comparison of different rainfall depth–duration–frequency relationships

Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations. An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses: the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence case.     

Earthquake simulation test of circular reinforced concrete bridge column under multidirectional seismic excitation

1 Introduction Since the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, a signi?cant amount of research has been conducted on the ductility capacity of reinforced concrete bridge columns, resulting in signi?cant advances in the seismic design of bridges. Since most tests have been done in static or quasistatic conditions and unidirectional loading conditions, however, no method that properly evaluates the effect of multidirectional dynamic loading has been developed, and design recommendations on this effect a…     

Blind identification of soil–structure systems

Surrounding soil can drastically influence the dynamic response of buildings during strong ground shaking. Soil’s flexibility decreases the natural frequencies of the system; and in most cases, soil provides additional damping due to material hysteresis and radiation. The additional damping forces, which are in non-classical form, render the mode shapes of the soil–structure system complex-valued. The response of a soil-foundation system can be compactly represented through impedance functions that have real and imaginary parts representing the stiffness and damping of the system, respectively. These impedance functions are frequency-dependent, and their determination for different configurations been the subject of a considerable number of analytical, numerical, and experimental studies. In this paper, we first develop a new identification technique that is capable of extracting complex mode shapes from the recorded free or ambient vibrations of a system. This technique is an extension of the second-order blind identification (SOBI) method, which is fairly well established in a number of other areas including sound separation, image processing, and mechanical system identification. The relative ease of implementation of this output-only identification technique has been the primary source of its appeal. We assess the accuracy and the utility of this extended SOBI technique by applying it to both synthetic and experimental data. We also present a secondary procedure, through which the frequency-dependent soil-foundation impedance functions can be easily extracted. The said procedure has a practical appeal as it uses only free or ambient responses of the structure to extract the foundation impedance functions, whereas current techniques require expensive and time-consuming forced-vibration tests.     

Study of Variations of Some Characteristics of the Giant Coronal Hole of 2015–2017

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Analysis of images of the full solar disk obtained by ground-based (BST-2, CrAO RAS) and space-based (SDO/AIA, SDO/HMI) instruments and the potential approximation...     

The Klyuchevskoi Eruptions of 2015–2016

This paper deals with the summit eruptions of 2015–2016, as well as with the 2016 subterminal eruption of Klyuchevskoi. We estimate the dimensions of the depression that was produced by a landfall in the southeastern trough of the volcano. We estimated the volume and area of landfall deposits. The observed volumes of landfalls during the terminal eruptions of 1944?1945, 1985, and 2016 can vary within 0.006?0.140 km³. The theoretical volumes can reach 4?8 km³. We discuss the leading factors that cause landfalls on Klyuchevskoi. These include irreversible creep at depth, the influence of cracks and fissuring in the volcanic cone, as well as the constant intrusive activity of the volcano. Geodetic measurements revealed that the rates of sliding for several individual patches on the slopes varied between 6.7 cm/yr and 19.4 cm/yr. Video and photographic observations were used to estimate the thermal power of stable steam–gas and ash jets, volume of pyroclastics, and the volume of the erupted lava. The thermal power of the steam–gas jets for 2015 was approximately 122 × 10⁶ kW, that of the gas–ash jets was 5.9 × 10⁶ kW. The volume of discharged pyroclastic material was V = 0.00007 km³ for 2015 and V = 0.0003 km³ for 2016.     

Numerical analyses of fault–foundation interaction

Field evidence from recent earthquakes has shown that structures can be designed to survive major surface dislocations. This paper: (i) Describes three different finite element (FE) methods of analysis, that were developed to simulate dip slip fault rupture propagation through soil and its interaction with foundation–structure systems; (ii) Validates the developed FE methodologies against centrifuge model tests that were conducted at the University of Dundee, Scotland; and (iii) Utilises one of these analysis methods to conduct a short parametric study on the interaction of idealised 2- and 5-story residential structures lying on slab foundations subjected to normal fault rupture. The comparison between numerical and centrifuge model test results shows that reliable predictions can be achieved with reasonably sophisticated constitutive soil models that take account of soil softening after failure. A prerequisite is an adequately refined FE mesh, combined with interface elements with tension cut-off between the soil and the structure. The results of the parametric study reveal that the increase of the surcharge load q of the structure leads to larger fault rupture diversion and “smoothing” of the settlement profile, allowing reduction of its stressing. Soil compliance is shown to be beneficial to the stressing of a structure. For a given soil depth H and imposed dislocation h, the rotation Δθ of the structure is shown to be a function of: (a) its location relative to the fault rupture; (b) the surcharge load q; and (c) soil compliance.     

Initial formation of channel–shoal patterns in double–inlet systems

Ocean Dynamics - Channel–shoal patterns are often observed in the back–barrier basins of inlet systems and are important from both an economical and ecological point of view. Focussing...     

Influence of plasticity on the seismic soil–micropiles–structure interaction

This paper includes an analysis of the influence of soil plasticity on the seismic response of micropiles. Analysis is carried out using a global three-dimensional modeling in the time domain. The soil behavior is described using the non-associated Mohr–Coulomb criterion. Both the micropiles and the superstructure are modeled as three-dimensional beam elements. Proper boundary conditions are used to ensure waves transmission through the lateral boundaries of the soil mass. Analyses are first conducted for harmonic loadings and then for real earthquake records. They show that plasticity could have a significant influence on the seismic response of the soil–micropiles–structure systems. This influence depends on the amplitude of the seismic loading and the dominant frequencies of both the input motion and the soil–piles–structure system.     

On The Question of North–South Asymmetry of Solar Activity

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The paper studies the dynamics of the distribution of the index of the north–south asymmetry of the sunspot number for the phase of the 11-year cycle, from cycle...