基于光学与被动微波遥感的青藏高原地区土壤水分反演

青藏高原地区高精度的土壤水分反演对高原能水循环、全球大气循环研究有着极大的影响.因此,获取青藏高原土壤水分时空布信息是一个迫切需要解决的问题.温度植被干旱指数(TVDI),是基于光学与热红外遥感通道数据反演土壤水分的重要方法,但在研究区域较大、地表覆盖格局差异显著时,TVDI模型反演精度会受到地表温度(Ts)等因素的影响.被动微波AMSR-E数据精确记录了像元内的土壤水分信息,但空间分辨率低.本文利用同时期的MODIS与被动微波数据,发展了针对青藏高原地区高精度土壤水分反演算法.首先,在TVDI模型中,利用修正型土壤调整植被指数(MSAVI)代替归一化植被指数(NDVI),以改进NDVI易饱和的缺点;其次,利用ASTER GDEM数据,对地形高程和纬度差异引起的地表温度变化进行了校正;然后,通过神经网络训练建立基于TVDI、被动微波以及辅助气象数据的土壤水分反演模型,并应用该模型反演了青藏高原地区三个观测网(CAMP/Tibet、玛曲和那曲)的土壤水分;最后,利用实测土壤水分数据对反演结果进行验证,结果表明该模型的精度均方根误差(RMSE)数值可达到0.031~0.041 m~3·m~(-3).本文还应用该算法反演了青藏高原连续的土壤水分的空间分布,并比较了土壤水分的变化趋势与实测降水变化趋势,结果表明二者变化量的正负关系一致.     

Temporal and spatial changes of soil moisture and its response to temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

The temporal and spatial characteristics of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were analysed to explore the relative contributions of temperature and precipitation to soil moisture change. Non-significant changes in soil moisture were observed for the TP over the period 1950–2010, while a seasonal cycle was evident, with higher values in summer and smaller values in winter. The soil moisture showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the south than in the north of the TP. The soil moisture fluctuated with time, jointly influenced by precipitation and temperature changes, with precipitation the dominant factor, while temperature regulated the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation. The relative contribution of precipitation to soil moisture changes was over 80%, except for winter in which temperature was the dominant factor, with a relative contribution of more than 70%. Because of the sharp increase in temperature in winter, the uneven spatial distribution of soil moisture over the TP might harm the fragile ecological environment.     

青藏高原春季土壤湿度与我国长江流域夏季降水的联系及其可能机理

土壤湿度作为陆面过程的重要因子,对局地及邻近地区的大气环流和天气气候有重要影响.青藏高原的土壤湿度观测站点稀少,时间较短,鉴于此,本文使用经过部分观测站点检验的卫星反演数据,研究了春季高原土壤湿度的年际变化与后期夏季我国东部降水的联系和可能机理.结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,高原土壤湿度总体呈现出显著增加的趋势,去除该线性趋势后,我们定义了一个高原土壤湿度指数TPSMI来定量表征高原土壤湿度的年际变化特征,发现表层、中层、深层的土壤湿度年际变率趋于一致,且春季土壤湿度与夏季土壤湿度显著相关(相关系数可达0.56).当TPSMI偏大时,即高原东部土壤湿度偏大,而西部偏小时,夏季在高原东部(西部)存在一个潜热(感热)热源,二者共同作用下,在对流层中高层从高原西部经我国大陆直至东北地区激发出一个气旋—反气旋—气旋波列,该波列呈相当正压结构,有利于东北冷涡的加强及冷空气向南爆发;与此同时,南亚高压加强东伸,西太副高西伸加强,低空南方暖湿气流与北方干冷气流在长江流域汇合,伴随着上升运动加强,从而有利于夏季长江流域降水增多;反之,当TPSMI偏小时,夏季长江流域降水减少.     

基于简化参数方法的蒙古干旱区土壤湿度被动微波遥感

卫星被动微波遥感土壤湿度,是准确分析大空间尺度上陆表水分变化信息的有效手段.美国航天局(NASA)发布的基于AMSR-E观测亮温资料的全球土壤湿度反演产品,在蒙古干旱区的实际精度并不令人满意.本文基于对地表微波辐射传输中地表粗糙度和植被层影响的简化处理方法,采用AMSR-E的6.9 GHz,10.7 GHz和18.7 GHz之V极化亮温资料,应用多频率反演算法,并以国际能量和水循环协同观测计划(The Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project)即CEOP实验在蒙古国东部荒漠地区的地面实验资料作为先验知识,获取被动微波遥感模型的优化参数,以期获得蒙古干旱区精度更高的土壤湿度遥感估算结果.分析表明,本文方法反演的白天和夜间土壤湿度结果与地面验证值之间的均方根误差(RMSE)接近0.030 cm³/cm³, 证明所用方法在不需要其他辅助资料或参数帮助下,可较精确地反演干旱区表层土壤湿度信息,能够全天候、动态监测大空间尺度的土壤湿度变化,可为干旱区气候变化研究及陆面过程模拟和数据同化研究提供高精度的表层土壤湿度初始场资料.     

Factors controlling the spatial variability of surface soil moisture within revegetated‐stabilized desert ecosystems of the Tengger Desert,Northern China

The spatial structure of surface soil moisture was investigated at a grid scale with 10 × 10 m intervals on a plot of 4500 m² in a re‐vegetated desert area in Shapotou, the Tengger Desert. The site topography varies from dune crest to dune hollow, and again to dune crest. Volumetric soil moisture contents were measured 21 times over 6 months in 2006 by using Delta‐T Theta‐Probes in the 0–6 cm surface soil layer before and after rainfall. At the same time, soil texture, relative elevation, and plant coverage were measured, to examine (i) the spatial variability of surface soil moisture; (ii) the main factors controlling the spatial variability patterns; and (iii) how the importance of these factors varies with the seasonal variations in soil moisture content. The results indicated that the normal distribution of surface soil moisture was more obvious in wet conditions than in dry conditions; the spatial variability of surface soil moisture was inherent and decreased with increased soil moisture content; and precipitation increased the spatial dependence of surface soil moisture. The relative elevation of the landscape, the shrub coverage of the community, and the soil texture were the main factors influencing surface soil moisture variability, while the effect of soil texture strengthened gradually following the heavy precipitation events. The correlation between the spatial variability of surface soil moisture and the environmental factors, such as, the dry and wet conditions, the landscape coverage and the relative elevation suggests that increasing stability of the soil moisture resulted in a significant increase of soil moisture. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global Soil Moisture Patterns Observed by Space Borne Microwave Radiometers and Scatterometers

Within the scope of the upcoming launch of a new water related satellite mission (SMOS) a global evaluation study was performed on two available global soil moisture products. ERS scatterometer surface wetness data was compared to AMSR-E soil moisture data. This study pointed out a strong similarity between both products in sparse to moderate vegetated regions with an average correlation coefficient of 0.83. Low correlations were found in densely vegetated areas and deserts. The low values in the vegetated regions can be explained by the limited soil moisture retrieval capabilities over dense vegetation covers. Soil emission is attenuated by the canopy and tends to saturate the microwave signal with increasing vegetation density, resulting in a decreased sensor sensitivity to soil moisture variations. It is expected that the new low frequency satellite mission (SMOS) will obtain soil moisture products with a higher quality in these regions. The low correlations in the desert regions are likely due to volume scattering or to the dielectric dynamics within the soil. The volume scattering in dry soils causes a higher backscatter under very dry conditions than under conditions when the sub-surface soil layers are somewhat wet. In addition, at low moisture levels the dielectric constant has a reduced sensitivity in response to changes in the soil moisture content. At a global scale the spatial correspondence of both products is high and both products clearly distinguish similar regions with high seasonal and inter annual variations. Based on the global analyses we concluded that the quality of both products was comparable and in the sparse to moderate vegetated regions both products may be beneficial for large scale validation of SMOS soil moisture. Some limitations of the studied products are different, pointing to significant potential for combining both products into one superior soil moisture data set.     

近50a淮河流域汛期降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征

选用1961-2010年淮河流域145个地面气象站的观测资料,分析淮河流域汛期(5-9月)降水的时空变化规律.结果表明:淮河流域汛期降水的空间分布不仅受到地理位置和地形的影响,而且与湿度和风速的空间分布具有较好的相关性;在时间变化上,雨日出现频率有下降的趋势,但暴雨日比重和暴雨日平均降水量均有升高的趋势.淮河流域汛期暴雨日出现频率以及各类型雨日的平均降水量均有上升的趋势,强降水时空变化呈现局地性和频发性.     

Comparison of soil moisture products from microwave remote sensing,land model,and reanalysis using global ground observations

High-quality soil moisture (SM) datasets are in great demand for climate, hydrology, and other fields, but detailed evaluation of SM products from various sources is scarce. Thus, using 670 SM stations worldwide, we evaluated and compared SM products from microwave remote sensing [Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) (C- and X-bands) and European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI)], land surface model [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)], and reanalysis data [ECMWF Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)] under different time scales and various climates and land covers. We find that: (a) ESA CCI and GLDAS have the closest values to the in situ SM on the annual scale, whereas others overestimate the SM; ERA-Interim (averaged R = 0.58) and ESA CCI (averaged R = 0.54) correlate best with the in situ data, while GLDAS performs worst. (b) Overall, the deviations of each product vary in seasons. ESA CCI and ERA-Interim products are closer to the in situ SM at seasonal scales, and AMSR-E and NCEP perform worst in December–February and June–August, respectively. (c) Except for NCEP and ERA-Interim, others can well reflect the intermonthly variation of the in situ SM. (d) Under various climates and land covers, AMSR-E products are less effective in cold climates, whereas GLDAS and NCEP products perform poorly in arid or temperate and dry climates. Moreover, the Bias and R of each SM product differ obviously under different forest types, especially the AMSR-E products. In summary, SM from ESA CCI is the best, followed by ERA-Interim product, and precipitation is an important auxiliary data for selecting high-quality SM stations and improving the accuracy of SM from GLDAS. These results can provide a reference for improving the accuracy of the above SM products.     

青藏高原中东部地区土壤湿度模拟性能评估以及误差分析

土壤湿度不仅是地表水循环的重要组成部分,而且对天气和气候也有重要影响,它的模拟误差严重阻碍了人们对水循环的认知.本文首先评估了1°×1°水平分辨率的全球陆面数据同化产品(Global Land Data Assimilation System,GLDAS)对青藏高原中部那曲地区和东部玛曲地区土壤湿度的模拟性能;鉴于GLDAS较粗的分辨率无法精细描述分析区域土壤湿度空间分布特征,于是我们基于通用陆面过程模式(Community Land Surface Model,Version 4.5),开展了高分辨率0.1°×0.1°的模拟,并对高分辨率模拟土壤湿度误差的原因进行了深入分析.结果表明:(1)GLDAS陆面数据同化产品和高分辨率陆面模式模拟结果都可以反映出土壤湿度的季节变化特征,但在非冻结期均存在不同程度的干偏差,尤其是在玛曲地区;(2)对比观测和模拟的土壤湿度发现,观测数据表现出强烈的空间异质性,而模拟结果呈现出的是空间均一性.按照模拟误差进行归类分组,对比模拟性能优劣的两组站点发现,模式物理过程不是模拟性能差异的主要因素,而两组站点间地表特征参数中的土壤质地和地形参数,以及驱动数据均没有体现出空间异质性,这可能是土壤湿度模拟结果没有表现出空间异质性的原因.     

Improvement of snow depth retrieval for FY3B-MWRI in China

The primary objective of this work is to develop an operational snow depth retrieval algorithm for the FengYun3B Microwave Radiation Imager(FY3B-MWRI)in China.Based on 7-year(2002–2009)observations of brightness temperature by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS(AMSR-E)and snow depth from Chinese meteorological stations,we develop a semi-empirical snow depth retrieval algorithm.When its land cover fraction is larger than 85%,we regard a pixel as pure at the satellite passive microwave remote-sensing scale.A 1-km resolution land use/land cover(LULC)map from the Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,is used to determine fractions of four main land cover types(grass,farmland,bare soil,and forest).Land cover sensitivity snow depth retrieval algorithms are initially developed using AMSR-E brightness temperature data.Each grid-cell snow depth was estimated as the sum of snow depths from each land cover algorithm weighted by percentages of land cover types within each grid cell.Through evaluation of this algorithm using station measurements from 2006,the root mean square error(RMSE)of snow depth retrieval is about 5.6 cm.In forest regions,snow depth is underestimated relative to ground observation,because stem volume and canopy closure are ignored in current algorithms.In addition,comparison between snow cover derived from AMSR-E and FY3B-MWRI with Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)snow cover products(MYD10C1)in January 2010 showed that algorithm accuracy in snow cover monitoring can reach 84%.Finally,we compared snow water equivalence(SWE)derived using FY3B-MWRI with AMSR-E SWE products in the Northern Hemisphere.The results show that AMSR-E overestimated SWE in China,which agrees with other validations.     

The effect of roughness in simultaneously retrieval of land surface parameters

Using remotely-sensed data, various soil moisture estimation models have been developed for bare soil areas. Previous studies have shown that the brightness temperature (BT) measured by passive microwave sensors were affected by characteristics of the land surface parameters including soil moisture, vegetation cover and soil roughness. Therefore knowledge of vegetation cover and soil roughness is important for obtaining frequent and global estimations of land surface parameters especially soil moisture.In this study, a model called Simultaneous Land Parameters Retrieval Model (SLPRM) that is an iterative least-squares minimization method is proposed. The algorithm estimates surface soil moisture, land surface temperature and canopy temperature simultaneously in vegetated areas using AMSR-E (Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS) brightness temperature data. The simultaneous estimations of the three parameters are based on a multi-parameter inversion algorithm which includes model construction, calibration and validation using observations carried out for the SMEX03 (Soil Moisture Experiment, 2003) region in the South and North of Oklahoma.Roughness parameter has also been included in the algorithm to increase the soil parameters retrieval accuracy. Unlike other methods, the SLPRM method works efficiently in all land covers types.The study focuses on soil parameters estimation by comparing three different scenarios with the inclusion of roughness data and selects the most appropriate one. The difference between the resulted accuracies of scenarios is due to the roughness calculation approach.The analysis on the retrieval model shows a meaningful and acceptable accuracy on soil moisture estimation according to the three scenarios.The SLPRM method has shown better performance when the SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR) data are used for roughness calculation.     

Seasonal dynamics of suprapermafrost groundwater and its response to the freeing-thawing processes of soil in the permafrost region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The suprapermafrost groundwater in permafrost region not only is an important component of the water cycle and land surface process, but also is closely associated with the charges of ecological environment in cold region. However, the seasonal dynamics, driving factors, and mechanism of suprapermafrost groundwater are not well understood. Based on observation at slope scale on suprapermafrost groundwater dynamics of typical alpine meadows in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the seasonal dynamics, spatial distribution and driving factors of suprapermafrost groundwater were analyzed. The results showed that there were close relationships between the seasonal dynamics of suprapermafrost groundwater and the freezing-thawing processes of active soil in permafrost region. The seasonal dynamics of suprapermafrost groundwater and its slope distribution pattern were controlled by soil temperature of active layers. The phase and range of the suprapermafrost groundwater dynamics are determined by deep soil(below 60 cm depth) moisture and groundwater recharging sources. The relationship between active soil temperatures and dynamics of suprapermafrost groundwater levels was better described by Boltzmann functions. However, the influencing thresholds of soil temperature on groundwater dynamics varied at different depths of active layers and in different slope positions, which resulted in the significant spatial heterogeneity of suprapermafrost groundwater dynamics in slope scale. Land cover change and global warming certainly altered the dynamics of suprapermafrost groundwater and the hydraulic interaction between groundwater and rivers, and consequently altered the overall hydrologic cycle of watershed scale.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of daily,seasonal and annual precipitation concentration in Jharkhand state,India

Nowadays, climate change and global warming have led to changes in the distribution of precipitation, which affect on the availability of water resources. Therefore, investigating the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the previous period is highly important in the future planning for flood control and local management of water resources. Considering the importance of this issue, in the present study, the precipitation concentration indices have been used for analysing precipitation changes at daily, seasonal, and annual time scales in the period of 1971 to 2011 over the Jharkhand state, India. Also, Modified Mann–Kendall test has used to study the trend of precipitation concentration indices in annual and seasonal time scales. The result shows a highly irregular and non-uniform distribution in the annual scale. For the seasonal scale an irregular and non-uniform distribution has been also observed, although the summer had a better situation than other seasons. For daily scale, none of the stations had a regular concentration and in the northeast and southern parts of the study area, there have been more irregularities. Furthermore, the results of investigating annual precipitation trend showed a combination of increasing and decreasing trend over the study area. The results of this study can be applied to manage water supplies, drainage projects, construct collection structures of urban flood, develop plans to prevent soil erosion, and designing appropriate plans to cope with drought conditions.     

卫星重力捕捉龙滩水库储水量变化

利用近7年的Gravity Recovery and climate Experiment(GRACE)重力卫星资料,采用改进的滑动窗去相关滤波和扇形滤波技术计算了红水河上游区域的重力变化,结果显示红水河上游区域重力场有明显的上升趋势,利用Global Land Data Assimilation Systems(GL...     

Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation

We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.     

Spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes over the Loess Plateau in China and its relationship with climate and the environment

China's Loess Plateau is located at the edge of the Asian summer monsoon in a transition zone of climate and ecology. In the Loess Plateau, climate and environments change along with space, which has an obvious impact on the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes. Because of scarce land-surface observation sites and short observation time in this area, previous studies have failed to fully understand the land-surface energy balance characteristics over the entire the Loess Plateau and their effect mechanisms. In this paper, we first test the simulation ability of the Community Land Model(CLM) model by comparing its simulated data with observed data. Based on the simulation data for the Loess Plateau over the past thirty years, we then analyze the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes and compare the pattern differences between the area averages for the driest year and wettest year. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the spatial distribution of the components of the surface energy balance with longitude, latitude, altitude, precipitation and temperature. The main results are as follows: the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes are significantly different, with the surface net radiation and sensible heat flux increasing from south to north and latent heat flux and soil heat flux decreasing from southeast to northwest. The sensible heat flux at the driest point is nearly twice as high as that at the wettest point, whereas the latent heat flux and soil heat flux at the driest point are half as much as that at the wettest point. The impact of variations of annual precipitation on the components of the surface energy balance is also obvious, and the maximum magnitude of the changes to the sensible heat flux and latent heat flux is nearly 30%. To a certain extent, geographical factors(including longitude, latitude, and altitude) and climate factors(including temperature and precipitation) affect the surface energy fluxes. However, the surface net radiation is more closely related to latitude and altitude, sensible heat flux is more closely related to the monsoon rainfall and latitude, and latent heat flux and soil heat flux are more closely related to the monsoon rainfall.     

Relationship between δD and δ18O in precipitation on north and south of the Tibetan Plateau and moisture recycling

The local meteoric water line (MWL) has been established from north to south of the Tibetan Plateau based on the measured results of δD and δ¹⁸O in precipitation and river water, and the relationship between MWL and moisture origins discussed. The spatial and seasonal variations ofd in precipitation and river water on the Tibetan Plateau have been studied. Results show that the spatial and seasonal variations ofd between north and south of the Tanggula Mountains are related to different moisture origins and water recycling.     

Spatiotemporal variability of drought in the northern part of northeast China

The thermal and moisture balance of permafrost regions has been altered by global warming, profoundly influencing vegetation dynamics and forest carbon cycling. To understand the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving forces responsible for changes in moisture conditions in the permafrost region of the Greater and Lesser Hinggan Mountains, northeastern China, we assessed long‐term trends for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index. From 1951 to 2014, annual mean temperature had a significant increase trend and the annual precipitation was not with significant trend. Since 1951, the annual standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index has decreased significantly at the boundary between regions with seasonal soil freezing and permafrost, suggesting that conspicuous permafrost degradation and moisture loss has occurred. The study area can be divided into 4 parts with a different balance between thermal and moisture conditions: the northern Songnen Plains, the Hulun Buir Sand Land, the middle reaches of the Heilongjiang River, and the Mohe region. However, only the middle reaches of the Heilongjiang River showed an obvious long‐term drying trend. The 4 areas showed quasi‐periodic oscillation and sea surface temperature during the winter half‐year affected drought intensity in the northern of Songnen Plains. When El Niño strengthened, moisture conditions increased in the northern of Songnen Plains, whereas stronger La Niña events decreased water availability. The result of this study will be beneficial for regional water resource management and prepare for potential drought hazards in the northeastern China.     

A mathematical model of soil moisture spatial distribution on the hill slopes of the Loess Plateau

Based on important factors that affect soil moisture spatial distribution, such as the slope gradients, land use, vegetation cover, and surface water diffusion characteristics together with field measurements of soil moisture data obtained from the surface soil under different land use structures, a soil moisture spatial distribution model was established. The diffusion degree coefficient of surface water for different vegetations was estimated from soil moisture values obtained from field measurements. The model can be solved using the finite unit method. The soil moisture spatial distribution on the hill slopes in the Loess Plateau were simulated by the model. A comparison of the simulated values with measurement data shows that the model is a good fit.     

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.