三层模式背风波的理论研究

文中建立了一个背风波的三层理论模式 ;当三层Scorer参数在中层最大、高层次之、下层最小的情况下 ,利用该模式求得了背风波的理论波长及扰动的解析解 ,并对一个典型的个例计算了其背风波波长 ,并在此基础上分析了背风波波长对上、中、下三层Scorer参数变化的敏感性 ,结果表明波长对中层Scorer参数的变化比较敏感 ,对下层Scorer参数的大小和符号都不敏感 ,但在计算背风波波长时不能忽略下层的Scorer参数。     

三层模型背风波的计算分析和数值模拟

本文将背风波三层模式的理论应用于典型的背风波个例,判断了其解所属的类型,计算了这些个例的波长;指出当有多个波解存在时,最长波长所对应的波解是实际解;本文还用ARPS模式对这些个例作了数值模拟,模拟结果与解析解则有较好的一致性。     

三层模式中风场对背风波的影响

为了研究风场对背风波的影响,针对边界层附近为弱稳定层结的背风波,建立了一个三维三层的理论模型和线性计算模式,分析了各层中风速和风向的变化对背风波特征的影响,揭示了气流过孤立山脉产生背风波的有利风场条件。结果表明：背风波的波长、振幅等特征对各层风速和风向的变化具有相当的敏感性,波长随着低、高层风速的增大而增大,随着中层风速的增大先减小后增大;振幅随着低、中层风速的增大先增大后减小,随着高层风速的增大而增大。此外,风速和上下层风向切变的增大均使背风波的形态逐渐由横波型转为辐散型,但是上下层风向的切变对背风波形态的影响比风速更为显著。     

三层模式中地形对背风波振幅的影响

利用一个三层模式和钟形山脉研究了中尺度地形参数对背风波振幅的影响。理论分析表明,若保持地形高度不变,变化地形宽度时,当山脉半宽为背风波频率的倒数,波动的振幅可以达到最大;若地形高度和半宽按不同比例变化时,波动振幅的变化是不确定的;若高度和半宽按相同比例变化时,即保持山脉形状不变的情况下,半宽为频率的倒数的2倍时,振幅达到最大。最后利用ARPS模式对地形参数的变化进行了敏感性试验,模拟结果与理论结果相吻合。     

中尺度地形背风波的作用及其应用

文中探讨了中尺度地形背风驻波及对天气系统发生发展的影响问题,通过建立一个含类似大别山地形作用的简化数学模型并进行了数值计算,结果表明,当过山气流u取１０１ｍ／ｓ量级,层结参数Ｎ取１０(－３)ｓ(－１)量级,其比值Ｕ／Ｎ约为３×１０３～４×１０３时可出现一种相当正压的地形背风波,其波长近于Ｕ／ｆ～１０２ｋｍ（ｆ为柯氏参数）。结合上述理论结果和实际暴雨个例,分析指出在江淮梅雨期间,当有移动性的暴雨区移至大别山定常背风波的适当位置时,暴雨会得到增幅。     

小振幅背风波的非线性特征及水汽敏感性试验

从Scorer的背风波发生理论条件出发,首先考虑3层均匀干空气,利用WRF模式模拟出干空气条件下的小振幅拦截背风波动,波动主要发生在2~5 km的高度范围,波长为8 km左右,这与之前的观测和模拟结果相一致。分析表明:形成平稳背风波动过程中,存在能量波包向下游传播的性质,各位置振动的强度会发生周期性的增强和衰减。引入水汽进行的敏感性试验表明:随着水汽增多,背风波动的波长会增加,且波动传播中所能达到的最大垂直速度有变小趋势。     

水汽和潜热释放对背风波影响的数值试验

利用中尺度数值模式ARPS进行了理想场的数值模拟,分析研究了水汽和潜热释放对大气层结稳定度的影响以及其在背风波的发展和演变过程中的作用,研究发现,潜热释放对大气层结分布的影响要远大于水汽对大气层结分布的直接影响,如果没有潜热的释放,水汽对背风波的发展和演变的作用非常小,而潜热释放可以使湿层结稳定度急剧下降,迅速破坏原有的层结分布,使这个区域出现非拦截的强烈的垂直运动,波动的崩溃更加迅速和明显。但需要说明的是在试验中,将数值模式里控制潜热释放的参数设为:0、1/2、2的假定情况,则在实际的大气运动过程中是不可能存在的。     

冬、夏平流层定常环流的数值模拟

本文应用一个包括Rayleigh摩擦、Newton冷却及水平涡旋热量扩散准地转34层球坐标模式来模拟北半球冬、夏两季平流层大气环流。利用Lindzen和Kuo所提出的方法来解这样一种复什二阶偏微分方程。 计算结果表明:由模式计算所得到的冬、夏两季北半球实际地形与实际热源强迫所产生的定常行星波振幅与位相的垂直分布及在平流层定常扰动系统的分布均与实际观测得到的分布相一致,这说明平流层的定常扰动分布主要还是由于对流层内地形与热源强迫所产生的定常扰动往平流层传播的结果。     

热带对流层波动性扰动的特性

1.东风波 (1)发生分布 在热带平流层的大尺度波动被发现以前,人们已经知道在热带对流层中存在着波长更短的波动性扰动。平均而言,低纬对流层盛行东风,在东风带中常常观测到自东向西传播的扰动,这种扰动称为东风波。以前,主要是在资料比较丰富的西太平洋和加勒比海分析这些东风波,从而知道东风波的周期为3～6日,波长2000～5000公里。其后,由于在热带地区运用谱分析等定量分析方法,在热带中部太平洋、非洲大陆西部、热带大西洋、印度洋孟加拉湾等地区也发现有同样的波动存在。     

赤道辐合带上扰动不稳定性的简单理论分析

本文采用了简单的流体力学方法,在三种模式——正压扰动层、相当正压层、三维扰动——的情况下,对赤道辐合带上的扰动切变不稳定进行了理论分析,分别给出了分析解、数值解及可能的数值解方法。分析结果证明:不稳定情况的出现,与基本气流间切变的大小、纬度、及扰动的波长有关。一般在中高纬度分析中经常忽略的2ωcosφ是一个稳定因子。由简单到较复杂的模式分析中,可以看出实际情况是很复杂的,简单模式中所忽略的因子,可能增加了不稳定性。本文从理论上初步证实,在台风发生过程中,基本气流的动能由于不稳定转变为扰动动能,可能是一个并不是不重要的机制。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

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正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted