黄淮海流域旱涝时空分布及组合特性

以黄淮海流域及其周边地区204个气象站点1961-2010年逐日降水过程资料、国家1:25万DEM数据和1:20万土地利用数据为基础,在利用降水Z指数对黄淮海流域旱涝进行评价的基础上,采用下垫面数据对结果进行修正,并分析黄淮海流域旱涝面积的时间变化特征,对黄淮海地区的易旱区、易涝区进行了划分,进一步选取集对分析法划分了流域内季节间旱涝交替的易发区。结果表明:黄淮海流域内夏秋两季旱涝问题较为严重,且秋旱面积上升趋势较为明显;黄河和海河流域以干旱居多,淮河则是干旱和雨涝并存,季节间的旱涝交替多集中在淮河流域中上游地区。     

气候变化背景下海河流域干旱特征及趋势

为了深入研究近60年来多种气候、水文要素对海河流域干旱变化的影响,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法对流域内气温、降水、径流等要素进行了分析,并采用Z指数法对流域的干旱特征进行了研究。结果表明：20世纪50年代以来,海河流域经历了湿润-正常-干旱的变化过程;21世纪初,流域北部地区出现偏旱现象,多次干旱的面积覆盖率低于40%,少部分干旱覆盖率较高,最高达98%;从时间上看,1980年是发生干旱现象的一个临界点,无论是从发生次数还是覆盖面积上,1980年以后要明显大于1980年以前。从干旱发生频率上分析,海河流域发生轻度和一般干旱的高频地区多分布在滦河流域以及北部山区,中部平原地区干旱爆发频率相对较低,重大干旱事件则在中南部平原地区发生频率更高。综合全部干旱事件,滦河流域为干旱频发区,其次为海河流域东部地区,西部地区则频率相对较低。     

1961-2009年西北地区基于SPI指数的干旱时空变化特征

利用西北五省区137个测站的1961-2009年逐月降水量资料计算标准化降水指数(SPI), 统计了逐月、春末夏初、初夏、夏季及秋季的干旱、重旱、特旱的频率及面积率, 分析其时空变化特征.结果表明: 新疆北部、青海的中部及甘肃河西是西北地区干旱频率较高的区域, 干旱频率在15个月以上, 新疆南部除个别月份干旱发生频率较高外, 总体干旱发生频率较低;干旱发生区域随月份有由南到北、由西向东变化的趋势;除新疆、青海、及甘肃个别区域重旱频率超过5月外, 其他区域基本上都在5月以下;新疆南部重旱频率仍然较低;夏季发生范围高于其他季节;新疆北部、甘肃河西是特旱的高发区. 不同等级的月及季节干旱面积率其逐年变化具有相似的特征, 西北干旱面积率的变化总体上可以分为3个阶段: 1961-1980年干旱面积率比较高, 平均在35%左右;1981-1990年为转折期, 干旱面积率下降到15%左右;而1991-2009年为稳定期, 干旱面积率变化不大.全球气候变暖导致西北地区降水量、冰川融水量、河川径流量增加和湖泊水位上升、面积扩大, 是1987年以来干旱面积率下降的原因.     

1951～2005年海河流域汛期降水量的时空变化特征分析

本文根据<海河流域汛期10区域旱涝预报物理模型>的分区标准,对1951～2005年海河流域的9个分区和全区的汛期(6～9月)降水量和干旱洪涝的时空变化和年际变化特征做了深入的统计分析和研究.在近55年来.海河流域的9个流域性多雨洪涝和大涝年有2/3集中在1954～1964年的11年中,1965～2005年的41年只有3个洪涝年.在1991～2005年的近15年中,有11年汛期较常年同期偏少,只有1995～1996年发生了洪涝.本文通过图表能够使读者比较清楚地了解和掌握海河流域9个分区和全区性洪涝和干旱的变化规律,更好地合理利用海河流域的宝贵水资源.     

海河流域地面沉降严重,急待治理

海河流域的唐山、天津、河北、山东一带,1985年地面沉降量大于0．5m的面积已近6000km^2,目前其范围仍在扩大,速度也在加快。整个海河地区中东部的沉降量大于1m的达700多平方公里。河北沧州附近尤为严重,沉降量大于2m的面积已覆盖全地区。预计2010年沧州、天津有些地带累计沉降量可能达到3．5m,令人忧虑。其沉降原因主要可以归结为毫无节制的过量汲取地下水。     

1980-2005年藏东南然乌湖流域冰川湖泊变化研究

基于1980年地形图和1988年、2001年Landsat数据以及2005年中巴资源卫星数据,对藏东南然乌湖流域1980-2005年25 a来冰川和湖泊的面积变化进行了研究.结果表明:1980-2005年间,冰川面积从496.64 km2减少到466.94 km2,冰川萎缩了29.7 km2,萎缩速率为1.19 km2·a-1 ,萎缩量占冰川总面积的5.98%,冰川面积占流域总面积的比例从22.42%减小到21.08%.区域冰碛湖泊面积则从1980年29.79 km2增大到2005年33.27 km2,湖泊面积扩大了3.48 km2,增加的速率为0.14km2·a-1,扩大面积占湖泊总面积的11.68%,湖泊而积占流域总面积的比例从1.34%增加到11.5%.其中,冰川面积在1980-1988年萎缩速率为1.73 km2·a-1 ,1988-2001年为0.82 km2·a-1和2001-2005年为1.3 km2·a-1.而湖泊面积在1980-1988年扩涨速率为0.11 km2·a-1,1988-2001年为0.12 km2·a-1,2001-2005年为0.27 km2·a-1,湖泊逐年加速扩涨.从流域内的气象数据来看,温度升高,是该区域冰川萎缩的根本原因,湖泊加速扩涨主要受到冰川萎缩,冰川融水量加大的影响.     

基于AHP的半干旱区泥石流易发性评价:以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例

半干旱区具有植被稀少、松散堆积物源丰富的特征,为泥石流的形成提供了有利条件。以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例,通过野外调查及遥感影像数据分析,研究了半干旱区的区域泥石流发育特征;选取地层岩性、断裂构造、斜坡坡度、流域相对高差、年平均降雨量和植被归一化指数等6项评价指标,利用GIS技术与AHP层次分析法相结合,建立半干旱区泥石流易发性评价模型,得到研究区泥石流易发性评价栅格图。对研究区进行小流域划分,以小流域为单元,进行区域统计分析并分类,制作基于流域单元的泥石流易发性分区图。分区结果表明:研究区泥石流高易发区和偏高易发区主要分布在金沙江沿岸的东北部、中部和西南部,面积约1 040.9 km2,占研究区总面积的35.7%。最后,构建检验曲线对泥石流易发性评价结果进行检验,高易发区和偏高易发区内实际发育的泥石流面积为651.4 km2,占泥石流总面积的51.1%,表明易发性评价分区效果良好。     

基于信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的玛纳斯河流域地质灾害易发性评价

本文以地质灾害多发的新疆玛纳斯河流域作为研究区,在剖析了信息量模型、逻辑回归模型在地质灾害易发性评价中各自的优势与局限性的基础上,探索了信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的科学性与优势;基于该区域地质环境与最新地质灾害数据,选取地形起伏度、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型、地层岩性、地形湿度指数(TWI)、河流、断层、高程9个影响因素作为评价因子,以全区355处地质灾害点为样本数据,在进行评价因子分析的基础上,通过ArcGIS平台对玛纳斯河流域进行了地质灾害易发性评价。评价结果表明,地质灾害高易发区主要分布于流域南部中低山丘陵地区,高易发区与较高易发区的面积分别为1760 km2、2200 km2,占研究区总面积7.98%、9.97%。经检验评价精度高达91.3%,该研究可为当地地质灾害防治与国土空间规划提供重要参考。     

则木河断裂带（普格段）地质灾害发育规律及易发性评价

以则木河断裂带（普格段）为研究区,分析研究区的地质灾害控制效应以及发育规律;选取海拔高程、坡向、坡度等7个评价因子构建评价指标体系,运用确定性系数模型与信息量模型耦合的加权信息量模型,通过ArcGIS进行地质灾害易发性评价。结果显示,研究区地质灾害发育具有断层距离效应、地层效应以及高程和坡度微地貌效应;极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区和低易发区的面积分别为46.75 km2、123.78 km2、215.73 km2、285.34 km2,面积占比分别为6.96%、18.43%、32.12%、42.49%。研究结果对指导则木河断裂带地区以及同类区域的国土空间规划与地灾防治等方面具有重要现实意义。     

海河流域严重干旱500hPa信号场异常信号分析

基于严重少雨旬的定义,分析海河流域1961～2009年严重少雨旬的分布特征,进而对汛期40个典型严重少雨旬的500hPa信号场进行经验正交分解(EOF分析).结果表明:EOF第一模态的方差贡献率达到35.3％,远高于其他模态;第一模态呈现出2个负异常区和1个正异常区,在对应的环流背景下,海河流域受暖性高压控制,高纬冷空气及低纬暖湿气流难以到达流域上空交绥,持续高温少雨造成流域严重干旱.     

Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China

Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis.

     

Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China

Meteorological droughts can affect large areas and may have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts depend on the severity, duration, and spatial extent of the precipitation deficit and the socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected regions. This paper examines the spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts in the Haihe River basin. Meteorological droughts events were diagnosed using daily meteorological data from 44 stations by calculating a comprehensive drought index (CI) for the period 1961–2011. Based on the daily CI values of each station over the past 50 years, the drought processes at each station were confirmed, and the severity, duration and frequency of each meteorological drought event were computed and analyzed. The results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the use of the CI index can effectively trace the development of drought and can also identify the duration and severity of each drought event; (2) the average drought duration was 57–85 days in each region of the Haihe River basin, and the region with the highest average values of drought duration and drought severity was Bohai Bay; (3) drought occurred more than 48 times over the study period, which is more than 0.95 times per year over the 50 years studied. The average frequencies of non-drought days, severe drought days and extreme drought days over the study period were 51.2, 3.2 and 0.4 %, respectively. Severe drought events mainly occurred in the south branch of the Hai River, and extreme drought events mainly occurred in the Shandong Peninsula and Bohai Bay; (4) the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the Haihe River basin show decreasing trends over the past 50 years. The frequency of severe drought and extreme drought events has increased in the past 20 years than during the period 1961–1990. The results of this study may serve as a reference point for decision regarding basin water resources management, ecological recovery and drought hazard vulnerability analysis.     

海河流域暴雨的气候特征与环流分型

选用海河流域1961~2012年132站逐日降水资料,通过趋势分析、M-K检验、EOF和REOF等方法分析了50余年海河流域暴雨的气候统计特征。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和历史天气图资料,研究了海河流域14个典型强致灾暴雨过程的大气环流特征。结果表明:(1)海河流域夏季暴雨日站数和暴雨量的时空分布相近,暴雨日站数下降趋势较为显著;(2)海河流域夏季暴雨的空间分布可划分为3个分布型态:西南型、东北型和东南型;(3)海河流域暴雨在20世纪70年代末至80年代初存在一次突变现象;(4)海河流域强致灾暴雨过程可归纳为5类主要环流型,即高空低槽型、高空冷涡型、副高外围切变线型、低空低涡型和台风北上型。     

两种判断月干旱过程的方法在黄河流域的对比研究

利用黄河流域160个气象站1961-2010年逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI)指数, 对比分析两种用逐日CI指数判断月干旱过程的方法. 结果表明: 对重大干旱事件个例来说, 两种方法都能大体描述事件的月干旱过程, 但干旱的强度和范围有所不同. 从干旱发生的范围来看, 两种结果的差别较小, 方法I的识别结果范围更大、更连续, 特别是对青海旱情的判断常常比实际范围大;而方法II的识别结果范围稍小, 大体上能反应干旱的整体范围, 但有时也偶尔会遗漏小部分旱区;从干旱发生的强度来看, 方法I对干旱事实的描述偏轻, 而方法II以重-特旱为主, 与实际情况更相符. 从对黄河流域近50 a月干旱频率的分析结果来看, 两种方法一致表明黄河流域分界线以西的地区常年不容易发生干旱, 而对于分界线以东地区, 两种方法的统计结果有较大差异. 方法I的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率较大, 其中, 轻旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 而重旱和特旱的发生频率很小;方法II的结果表明, 分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率在60%~80%左右, 其中重旱的月发生频率最大, 其次为中旱, 轻旱和特旱的发生频率很小. 总体来说, 方法II对黄河流域月干旱情况的评估结果与干旱实际情况更一致.     

塔里木河流域干湿变化与大气环流关系

基于塔里木河流域39个气象站1961—2010年逐日观测数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,采用标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI）,分析了该流域近50年来干湿时空变化特征及典型干湿月份和突变前后的大气环流特征。对SPEI序列进行的趋势检验和突变分析表明,近50年来,塔里木河流域显著变湿并在1986年发生显著突变,SPEI上升趋势显著的站点较多的月份主要集中在暖季（5~10月）。对突变前后不同等级干湿事件频率变化的统计结果表明,突变后,极端干旱事件发生频率略有增加,但轻度和中度干旱事件发生频率有所减少,而不同等级的湿事件发生频率则一致地表现为增加。对典型干湿月份和突变前后对应的北半球500hPa位势高度场和风场变化的合成分析表明,暖季典型干湿月份环流系统配置存在明显差异,增加的水汽和弱不稳定大气层结构是该区域1986年后暖季变湿的原因之一。     

Evaluation of CHIRPS and its application for drought monitoring over the Haihe River Basin,China

To establish the drought index objectively and reasonably and evaluate the hydrological drought accurately, firstly, the optimal distribution was selected from nine distributions (normal, lognormal, exponential, gamma, general extreme value, inverse Gaussian, logistic, log-logistic and Weibull), then the Optimal Standardized Streamflow Index (OSSI) was calculated based on the optimal distribution, and last, the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrological drought based on the OSSI series was investigated through the monthly streamflow data of seven hydrological stations during the period 1961–2011 in Luanhe River basin, China. Results suggest: (1) the general extreme value and log-logistic distributions performed prominently in fitting the monthly streamflow of Luanhe River basin. (2) The main periods of hydrological drought in Luanhe River basin were 148–169, 75–80, 42–45, 14–19 and 8–9 months. (3) The hydrological drought had an aggravating trend over the past 51 year and with the increase in timescale, the aggravating trend was more serious. (4) The lower the drought grade was, the broader the coverage area. As for the Luanhe River basin, the whole basin suffered the mild and more serious drought, while the severe and more serious drought only cover some areas. (5) With the increase in time step, the frequency distribution of mild droughts across the basin tended to be concentrated, the frequency of extreme droughts in middle and upper reaches tended to increase and the frequency in downstream tends to decrease. This research can provide powerful references for water resources planning and management and drought mitigation.     

Evaluation of risk of hydrological droughts by the trivariate Plackett copula in the East River basin (China)

East River, one of the major tributaries of Pearl River, is the major source of water supply for mega-cites within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta, China. The availability and variability of water resources of the East River basin are therefore of practical importance. This study aims to investigate the probabilistic behavior of hydrological droughts in the East River basin using the trivariate Plackett copula. Daily streamflow data for the period of 1975–2009 from 3 hydrological stations in the East River basin are analyzed. Defining hydrological droughts by drought severity, duration, and minimum flow, secondary return periods are computed. Results show that the Plackett copula satisfactorily models bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of correlated drought variables. Results of risk evaluation show an increasing drought risk from the upper to the lower East River basin. This result is important for basin-scale water resources management in the East River basin.