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1.
The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.  相似文献   

2.
The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.  相似文献   

3.
基于植被状态指数的云南省农业干旱状况时空分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文首先计算了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱指数VCI,然后使用Pearson相关系数评价降水与VCI的相关性,基于VCI识别云南省2004-2013年农业干旱事件,最后,与SPEI气象干旱识别结果进行对比分析,在VCI农业干旱识别的基础上,使用干旱频率和干旱面积占比指标分析了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱时空特征。结果表明:降水只是影响VCI指数的关键因素之一;VCI和SPEI指数均能够较好对干旱进行监测并识别典型干旱,但两者的识别结果存在差异;云南省农业干旱频率在春冬两季较高,夏季较低,秋季介于夏季和春冬季之间;春夏冬三季农业干旱频率空间分布较为均匀,秋季农业干旱频率呈南低北高的分布态势,整体上北部干旱频率高于南部;2004-2013年云南省整体干旱面积占比呈现先减小后增加再波动的趋势,春冬两季整体干旱面积占比最高,分别为46.63%和47.18%,呈现下降趋势,夏季整体干旱面积占比最低,为43.81%,呈现上升趋势,秋季整体干旱面积占比介于冬春季和夏季之间,为45.74%,呈现下降趋势。总之,云南省农业干旱春冬易发性最高,影响范围最大,夏季易发性最低,影响范围最小。  相似文献   

4.
随着全球气候变化加剧和城市化进程的发展,暴雨洪涝灾害对城市社会经济活动造成的影响越来越严重。作为量化灾害影响程度、社会经济损失与风险评估的重要方法,城市洪涝灾害脆弱性研究对洪涝灾害风险管理与规划具有重要意义。目前,城市脆弱性的内涵进一步延伸,脆弱性指标体系不断丰富,所取得的研究成果能够反映一定时期内城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的整体特征,却无法同时有效地解决城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的空间非均匀性问题和动态计算问题。本文从脆弱性的动态特征出发,提出了城市洪涝灾害动态脆弱性计算方法,建立了城市洪涝灾害脆弱性量化模型与面向洪涝灾害脆弱性计算的多智能体模型,形成了基于多智能体的城市洪涝灾害脆弱性计算方法。在NetLogo平台上,利用智能体模型对浙江省丽水市城区的动态脆弱性进行了仿真模拟。研究结果表明该模型有助于发现不同时空条件下城市存在的“脆弱区”,为城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的时空分异特征分析、区域脆弱性的精细化评价提供方法支撑,能够为缓解措施的实施和洪涝灾害的精细化管理提供有效指导。  相似文献   

5.
中国山洪灾害造成的经济损失在各类灾害损失中所占比重日趋增大,其中房屋损毁是造成经济损失和人员伤亡的重要因素。本文以房屋为研究对象,基于全国山洪灾害调查评价提供的数据,分析房屋暴露量的时空分布特征,构建山洪灾害房屋损毁风险评估模型,对房屋损毁风险进行分析及原因探究。结果表明:① 中国山洪灾害防治县以一层住宅为主,占比达50%以上的防治县分布范围大致与中国第二、三阶梯分界线一致;砖混结构仍为迄今为止中国山区农村运用最为广泛的房屋结构类型,其次为砖木结构,再次为钢混结构和其它结构;② 中国山洪灾害防治县房屋脆弱性呈现西北高、东南低的整体空间格局;房屋损毁风险呈现东部高、西部低的空间分布特征,且损毁风险较高的地区呈带状或集聚状态分布。损毁风险很高的地区集中于辽东半岛、山东半岛、海南岛及东南沿海地带,且在燕山-太行山区呈现沿东北-西南方向的条带状分布,损毁风险较高的地区主要分布于太行山区及长江中下游地区;③ 房屋类型对山洪灾害房屋损毁风险贡献度较高的地区主要为山东省、山西省及河北省;山洪强度对房屋损毁风险贡献率较高的地区主要呈3条条带状分布:燕山-太行山分布带、浙闽滨海丘陵分布带、两广滨海分布带。  相似文献   

6.
In this paper,we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change.The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system(CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion.A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability:exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China,where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS.Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators.The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas,while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones.Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances,showing highest sensitivity.Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences.After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons,climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats.The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map.Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope.This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.  相似文献   

7.
Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on waterlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1 km× 1 km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.  相似文献   

8.
At present, the methods widely applied to assess ecological risk of heavy metals are essentially single-point estimates in which exposure and toxicity data cannot be fully used and probabilities of adverse biological eff ects cannot be achieved. In this study, based on investigation of concentrations of six heavy metals (As, Hg, Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn) in the surface seawater and sediment near the outlet of a zinc factory, located in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, China, a tiered approach consisting of several probabilistic options was used to refine ecological risk assessment for the individuals. A mixture of various heavy metals was detected in the surface seawater, and potential ecological risk index (PERI) was adopted to assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the surface sediment. The results from all levels of aquatic ecological risk assessment in the tiered framework, ranging from comparison of single eff ects and exposure values to the use of distribution-based Hazard Quotient obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, are consistent with each other. Briefly, aquatic Zn and Cu posed a clear ecological risk, while Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in the water column posed potential risk. As expected, combined ecological risk of heavy metal mixture in the surface seawater was proved significantly higher than the risk caused by any individual heavy metal, calculated using the concept of total equivalent concentration. According to PERI, the severity of pollution by the six heavy metals in the surface sediment decreased in the following sequence: Cd>Hg>As>Pb>Cu>Zn, and the total heavy metals in the sediment posed a very high risk to the marine environment. This study provides a useful mathematical framework for ecological risk assessment of heavy metals.  相似文献   

9.
晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的GIS综合评价   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
生态环境脆弱性评估可以为退化系统的综合整治提供策略依据。晋北地区作为我国北方农牧交错带的组成部分,在自然和人为因素的综合作用下,表现出脆弱性的特征。本文利用空间主成分分析和层次分析法,结合遥感数据和地理信息系统技术,评价了晋北地区生态环境的脆弱性。结果表明:在自然和人为因素综合作用下,晋北地区生态环境脆弱性呈现不平衡的空间分布特征,东北部重,西南部轻。极度和重度脆弱区主要分布在东北部,占整个研究区面积的33.1%;微度和中度脆弱区主要分布在西南部,占41.9%;轻度脆弱区在整个研究区几乎均有分布,占24.9%。轻度和中度脆弱区占整个研究区面积的55.5%。总体来看,晋北地区大部分区域处于中度和轻度脆弱性水平。自然因素是晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的主导因素,人为因素是其脆弱性变化的关键外在因素。影响晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的自然因素主要有干旱、NDVI、水土流失比率;人为因素主要有土地利用、第二产业占GDP比重、环保投资指数、水资源量。研究结果为晋北地区合理调控人类活动,保护和治理生态环境提供一定的依据。  相似文献   

10.
以县域为研究对象,从影响生态环境的自然因素、人类干扰因素两个方面出发,确定了包括目标层-准则层-指标层在内的系统化评价指标体系;打破传统的以行政区域为单元分析的模式,通过GIS网格技术和模糊综合评价多属性特征分析,提出了将地理信息系统技术(GIS)和AHP-模糊综合评价模型互相融合,以网格单元进行生态环境脆弱性综合评价...  相似文献   

11.
干旱灾害给整个自然灾害体系带来的经济损失最为严重,也是目前检测难度较高的自然灾害之一。SaTScan在灾害时空聚集区的识别中已有应用,但其存在参数设定困难、识别区域不够精确等问题。本文对Moran散点图和局部空间关联指标(Local Indicators of Spatial Association, LISA)进行时空扩展,提出了一种时空Moran散点图的方法,根据研究者对关注现象阈值及置信程度的要求,筛选出符合条件的点,并将其绘制在对应的时空坐标系上,从而得到时空聚集区。以2009—2014年中国干旱时空聚集区识别为例,结果表明:① 时空Moran散点图识别到的干旱时空聚集区与实际基本相符,验证了方法的有效性;同时,与时空扫描法相比,该方法具有识别结果边界清晰、精确,参数设置容易等优点;② 2009年和2011年呈现大范围、较强的干旱时空聚集区,2010年和2014年出现局部、较强的干旱时空聚集,而2012年和2013年的干旱时空聚集情况较轻。综合来看,2009—2014年干旱时空聚集区主要出现在云贵川、东北、黄淮地区和长江中下游等地区。  相似文献   

12.
在全球气候变暖的大背景下,干旱事件发生越来越频繁,严重危害我国的粮食生产安全。构建准确的干旱监测模型不仅能够及时地反映出干旱事件的发生,同时可以为地方政府制定减灾保产措施提供科学支撑和保障。传统的气象干旱监测方法因为缺乏对植被本身需水状态和土壤供水信息的考虑旱情判定结果往往比实际情况偏重,而遥感监测指标大多只考虑了植被或土壤等单方面因素具有局限性,目前已有的综合干旱监测模型大多以气象指标为因变量,一方面需要数据资料较多参数复杂,另一方面模型准确度依赖于气象指标对当地农业干旱的响应能力,而同一气象指标在不同区域适应性存在差异,因此同样存在局限性。本文以河南省的冬小麦为研究对象,利用2001-2011年的EOS-MODIS数据产品以及气象站点监测数据,计算了标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI、植被状态指数VCI、温度状态指数TCI、温度植被状态指数TVDI,同时结合河南省农业气象灾害旬报对冬小麦受灾的记录,构建了基于决策树的定性农业干旱监测模型。测试集结果表明,模型综合了大气异常信息、植被状态信息以及土壤水分信息,优于单个指标的监测结果。另外,基于此模型监测了河南省2009年4-5月的干旱事件,结果与实情相符,能够较好地反映农业旱情的发生和空间演变情况。  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlán, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility,magnitude(area-velocity ratio) and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources(Google Earth,aerial photographs and historical information).Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques:(i) logistic regression,(ii) quadratic discriminant analysis,(iii) linear discriminant analysis, and(iv)neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model(DEM)of 10 m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief.These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then,due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment(SAVE) model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments.Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.  相似文献   

14.
This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource- based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals- and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities.  相似文献   

15.
以广东省各地级市辖区和县域中心点为公路网络节点,通过对各节点城市的中心职能强度指数分析及其相互之间在公路网络的连通关系为基础,综合应用日通达性模型、通达性度量模型和潜力模型,对广东区域通达性进行分析,并以不同指标和度量模型的广东区域通达性的空间格局和分异特征进行GIS分析。结果表明,广东省的城市通达性空间格局,总体上呈现出一种圈层空间分布结构,以广州市核心区域和佛山市中心区域(禅城区和顺德区)为中心向外辐射。其影响通达性区域差异的主要因素包括城市经济水平、交通条件和地理区位等,其中,在交通条件影响下的通达性区域差异,在空间上表现出高等级公路网络指向性。研究结果反映出广东省省域公路网络通达性的空间分异规律,诠释了城市的经济发展水平、交通条件和地理区位对通达性的综合作用,从而为广东省城镇网络体系发育、区域经济协调及珠三角产业转移规划优化提供科学支撑。  相似文献   

16.
Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed (increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends (P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960s to the 1990s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970s and 1980s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming.  相似文献   

17.
There is an increasing concern for potentially hazardous metals pollution, which can threaten crops production and human health. In this study, the spatial distribution and environmental risks of eight heavy metals in surface soil samples collected from the paddy fields in Yongshuyu irrigation area, Northeast China were investigated. The mean concentrations of Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Cd, Hg and As were 34.6 ± 4.67, 82.8 ± 9.51, 17.3 ± 4.09, 21.2 ± 12.0, 88.6 ± 17.9, 0.18 ± 0.15, 0.22 ± 0.07 and 8.77 ± 2.47 mg/kg, respectively, which were slightly higher than their corresponding background values of Jilin Province, indicating enrichment of these metals in the paddy soils, especially for Ni, Cd and Hg. The spatial distribution of heavy metals was closely correlated with local anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural production, mining and transportation. The hot-spot areas of As and Cd were mainly concentrated in the up-midstream where were associated with agricultural activities. Cr and Cu showed similar spatial distributions with hot-spot areas distributed the whole irrigation area uniformly. Ni was mainly distributed in the downstream where Ni quarries concentrated, while the spatial distribution patterns of Hg was mainly located in the upstream and downstream where the soil was significantly influenced by irrigation and coal mining emission. The spatial distributions of Pb and Zn were mainly concentrated along the highway side. The pollution levels of Yongshuyu irrigation area were estimated through index of geo-accumulation(Igeo), Nemerow integrated pollution index(NIPI) and potential ecological risk index(PERI). The results showed that Cd and Hg were the main pollutants in the study area. Health risk assessment results indicated that children were in higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks than adults with the carcinogenic metal of As. Ingestion was the main exposure pathway to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk for both adults and children. Principal component analysis(PCA) indicated that Cr and Cu were mainly from parent materials, while Cd and As were mainly affected by agricultural activities. Pb and Zn were controlled by traffic activities, and the accumulations of Ni and Hg were associated with mining activities. This study would be valuable for preventing heavy metals inputs and safety in rice production of the Songhua river basin.  相似文献   

18.
Vulnerability is a new field and analytical tool in the study of urban safety. Analysis and assessment of vulnerability provide a new basis for urban planning. This study constructed a quantitative index system for assessing vulnerability, based on the city’s sensitivity and emergency response capacity. City size, density, and spatial form influence a city’s sensitivity to crises and risks, to which vulnerability is positively related. Levels of socio-economic development, infrastructures, and emergency management contribute to a city’s emergency response capacity, with which vulnerability is inversely associated. Vulnerability of 19 large Chinese cities was assessed. Harbin and Shenzhen demonstrated the highest and lowest vulnerability among 19 cities, while Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou ranked the 5th, the 9th and the 12th. Spatially, northern cities tended to be more vulnerable than southern cities. And the differences in vulnerability among cities were explored based on cities’ physical geography conditions, level of socio-economic development, infrastructures, regional status, history of disaster, history of urban planning and development, government policies, etc.  相似文献   

19.
 近年来,干旱灾害频繁发生,对区域内农业生产和生态环境造成了极大的破坏。为了快速准确地获取大面积地表土壤水分信息用以评估地表受旱程度,本文以2010年年初中国西南大旱为例,运用MODIS可见光-红外波段数据以及像元可信度综合生成了归一化干旱指数(NDDI)。同时,结合研究区内地面气象站点实测的土壤湿度数据验证了NDDI对地表土壤湿度的敏感度。结果表明:相比于植被状态指数(VCI)干旱监测模型,NDDI能更加灵敏地对浅层地表干湿变化做出迅速响应。最后,本文利用NDDI分析了2010年年初中国西南大旱旱情发展的时空演变过程,宏观上重现了此次旱情的发展历程,并使用该指数统计了不同时间节点、不同干旱等级下的贵州省土地受旱面积。结果显示:2010年1月-2010年4月为贵州省旱情最为严重的4个月,平均受旱面积达103 352km2,最大受旱面积达132 257km2,占贵州省总面积的75%以上。同时,旱情等级为重旱的土地面积最大达到88 246 km2,占贵州全境土地面积的50%以上。  相似文献   

20.
干旱遥感监测方法及其应用发展(可下载全文)   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
 干旱是世界上影响范围最广和造成社会经济损失最严重的一种自然灾害。本文从干旱遥感监测的不同角度出发,总结了目前干旱遥感监测的主要方法、应用状况及优缺点。主要包括针对裸土地表类型的热惯量法、微波法,针对植被覆盖地表类型的可见光、近红外、短波红外等波段反射率数据的归一化植被指数法、距平指数法、条件植被指数法、归一化差值水分指数、归一化干旱指数、植被供水指数等,以及热红外遥感数据的温度植被干旱指数、温度条件指数、作物缺水指数、水分亏缺指数等。最后,提出了加强干旱遥感监测技术研究的建议,同时指出将可见光和微波相结合的指数模型的研究是干旱遥感监测可能的发展方向。  相似文献   

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