中小流域防洪规划决策支持系统──Ⅱ个例分析

以洪汝河流域为研究对象,详细介绍了中小流域防洪规划决策支持系统的建立及使用,并对相关结果作了分析,个例证明把决策支持系统方法引入防洪规划问题中是有现实意义的,它不仅可以提高防洪规划的速度,同时可以提高防洪规划的准确性,是一种可行的尝试.     

鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统

位于浙江省温州市南部的鳌江是一条洪水灾害频繁的河流.介绍了鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统的总体设计、功能模块、逻辑结构、模型组织以及应用水文学及水力学的方法对流域洪水演进过程进行模拟计算的方法等,建立了一个可以在中小流域推广应用的防洪预报调度系统.     

防洪减灾预警系统建设探讨

我国地域广阔,河流众多,历史上"三年一大灾,两年一小灾"是我国洪水灾害的特点之一。通过对防洪预警建设必要性分析,对防洪预警系统组成中的防汛信息采集系统、数据存储与管理系统、防洪综合信息服务系统、防洪预报预警系统和防洪决策支持系统进行论述说明,并对防洪预警系统建设前景进行阐述讨论,提升防汛会商能力,提高防汛抗旱调度指挥决策的科学性、主动性、及时性,正确地对防汛形势做出分析,对发展趋势做出预测、预报,可以为河流规划及流域经济发展提供优质服务。     

长江防洪决策支持系统——数据库及其信息查询系统

针对长江防洪决策支持系统的需要,在分析研究防洪决策支持系统数据库和信息查询特点以及开发方法的基础上,采用先进的系统开发方法和可视化的编程工具,在微型计算机上使用Windows开发平台完成了水情数据库、工程数据库的开发和部分信息查询系统的程序设计.所建数据库和信息查询系统是一个内容丰富、数据结构复杂的子系统,也是一个数据规范性较强、结构合理、具有较高灵活性、可维护性和可扩充性的子系统.     

水库群联合优化调度研究进展与展望

系统阐述了线性规划、非线性规划、网络流、大系统、动态规划、启发式算法等主要的水库群联合优化调度方法,对近年来国内外水库群优化调度理论及应用进展进行综述;重点分析了库群联合调度的基本原则、目标函数、优化算法及在防洪调度、兴利调度和多目标调度中的应用;展望了水库群联合优化调度的多目标技术,决策支持系统和效益分配等研究的方向。     

综合利用水库优化调度决策支持系统

以石头河水库为例,应用决策支持系统原理,阐述了综合利用水库优化调度决策支持系统设计的原理和方法,并开发研制了石头河水库优化调度决策支持系统.该系统集成了数据采集与传输、数据库管理、水文预报、用水计划编制、兴利调度计划编制、度汛计划编制、实时兴利调度、实时防洪调度、水库优化调度和系统维护10个子系统.     

宁波市防汛网络信息系统建设研究

以宁波市为例，探讨了我国东南沿海独流入海中小流域防汛网络信息的结构特征，建立了宁波市防汛网络信息系统，初步实现子全市水情信息自动采集传输，水情查询显示、洪水预警和防洪调度等辅助决策功能，该系统的建立为该市防洪减灾提供了有力支持，并为该市防汛抗旱工作现代化创造了条件。     

数据挖掘技术在水文预报中的应用及水文预报发展趋势研究

数据挖掘作为知识发现过程中的重要步骤,是从大型数据库中提取未知的、有价值的和可操作性的关系、模式和趋势用于决策支持的过程。我国目前在防洪领域存在着大量水文数据,如何充分有效地利用各种智能算法对这些数据进行分析与挖掘,以形成相应的水文预报模型进行准确的水文预报是防洪决策支持系统完善和发展的重要方面。本文首先全面地介绍数据挖掘的功能分类及以数据挖掘为基础的水文预报体系,然后对数据挖掘技术在水文预报中的应用进行了探讨和研究。     

嘉陵江(凤县段)防洪规划设计洪水的简析

设计洪水的计算，在大、中、小流域治理中得到了普遍应用，本文就防洪规划设计洪水进行了简析。     

长江防洪决策支持系统——决策方案管理系统

在分析防洪决策特点的基础上,以长江防洪决策支持系统为例,设计开发了具有生成新方案、删除旧方案、选择方案、选择模型、设置模型参数、运行模型、查询显示运行结果、给出方案描述、比较多种方案等功能的防洪决策方案管理系统(DCMS,Decision Case Management System),并对实现这一系统的技术途径作了描述.     

沂沭泗防汛水情信息系统

沂沭泗防汛水情信息系统是防汛调度决策支持系统中的一个重要组成部分。主要介绍系统的开放性、水情信息处理的自适应性、水情信息图形化、图形漫游、水情信息综合显示、多窗口结合、图形叠加、人机对话、历史资料检索以及屏幕绘图与绘图仪绘图相对应等主要设计特点。     

七大流域设计洪水修订成果分析

在全国各大流域防洪规划和综合规划设计洪水成果的基础上,整理设计洪水相关资料,延长洪水系列,进行还原计算和频率适线分析。经过数年工作,完成了七大流域设计洪水成果的修订和审查工作。设计洪水修订的项目主要包括设计洪峰和不同时段的洪量,修订后的设计洪水成果代表性更好。介绍了七大流域设计洪水修订成果及变化情况,并对不同流域影响设计洪水成果的因素进行了分析,通过与原审批成果的对比分析,推荐了设计洪水成果修订的采用成果,以此作为各站点修订后的成果以及以后工程设计的依据。     

淮河中游洪水演进模型

针对淮河流域的特点,建立了以水动力学方法为主的河道一维、行洪区二维及对无实测资料地区采用水文学方法为辅的流域洪水演进数学模型.并提出了河道一维、行洪区二维耦合的求解方法.对占相当大比重的无资料地区径流流入干流作了技术处理,这对模型的成功建立起着重要作用.通过9次洪水的验算表明,模型具有较高的精度、较强的通用性、灵活性和实用性.为淮河流域的防洪规划提供了工具.模型的主要思路同样适用于其它流域.     

水箱模型在大尺度流域实时洪水预报模型研制中的应用

水箱模型用于实时洪水作业预报的具体成果尚不多，本文研究的目的在于将水箱模型用于大尺度流域实时洪水预报。本文介绍了应用水箱模型建立实时洪水预报模型的方法。按照河段流量传播时间将寸滩以上干、支流划分为若干子河段，各子河段按照计算时段长分成若干单元河段，各单元河段区间降雨径流预报采用水箱模型．河道流量演算采用连续马斯京根法。河系预报模型精度在85％以上，能够满足实时洪水预报的要求。     

分布式流域水文模型刍议

本文，对水文模型，流域水文模型，分布式流域水文模型的概念进行了阐述；对分布式流域水文模型的性质、特点进行了论述，并对其在实时洪水预报中应用前景进行了分析。     

Interregional and Transnational Co-operation in River Basins – Chances to Improve Flood Risk Management?

In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management.     

中小河流山洪预警预报系统开发设计及应用

我国中小河流众多,山洪频发,洪灾损失严重,是造成人员伤亡的主要灾种。目前,我国中小河流山洪预报预警技术研究还处于初步阶段,山洪监测预警系统尚在试点建设中。介绍水利部公益性项目"中小河流突发性洪水监测与预警预报技术研究"开发的中小河流山洪预警预报原型系统,包括基于分布式水文模型、动态临界雨量的山洪预警预报方法,山洪预警预报原型系统的总体结构、软件设计与功能实现,以及在其中一个示范区江西遂川江的试运行情况,并对其实际应用进行了分析,以期为当前所开展的中小河流洪水易发区水文监测预警项目及全国山洪灾害防御非工程措施建设等工作提供参考。     

The emerging role of satellite rainfall data in improving the hydro-political situation of flood monitoring in the under-developed regions of the world

The systematic decline of in situ networks for hydrologic measurements has been recognized as a crucial limitation to advancing hydrologic monitoring in medium to large basins, especially those that are already sparsely instrumented. As a collective response, sections of the hydrologic community have recently forged partnerships for the development of space-borne missions for cost-effective, yet global, hydrologic measurements by building upon the technological advancements since the last two decades. In this article, we review the state-of-the-art on flood monitoring in medium and large ungauged basins where satellite remote sensing can facilitate development of a cost-effective mechanism. We present our review in the context of the current hydro-political situation of flood monitoring in flood-prone developing nations situated in international river basins (IRBs). Given the large number of such basins and the difficulty in acquisition of multi-faceted geophysical data, we argue that the conventional data-intensive implementation of physically based hydrologic models that are complex and distributed is time-consuming for global assessment of the utility of proposed global satellite hydrologic missions. A more parsimonious approach is justified at the tolerable expense of accuracy before such missions begin operation. Such a parsimonious approach can subsequently motivate the identified international basins to invest greater effort in conventional and detailed hydrologic studies to design a prototype flood forecasting system in an effort to overcome the hydro-political hurdles to flood monitoring. Through a modeling exercise involving an open-book watershed concept, we demonstrate the value of a parsimonious approach in understanding the utility of NASA-derived satellite rainfall products. It is critical now that real-world operational flood forecasting agencies in the under-developed world come forward to collaborate with the research community in order to leverage satellite rainfall data for greater societal benefit for inhabitants in IRBs.     

Flood Events in the Rhine Basin: Genesis,Influences and Mitigation

The paper analyses the hydrological regime of the Rhine catchment,the genesis of recent floods,and recommends some research and practical activities to mitigate flood damage. The catchment of the Rhine River can be divided into four main subcatchments: the alpine region with the Aare River as its main tributary and downstream the lower mountain regions of the tributaries Neckar, Main and Moselle. These four basins generate very different hydrographs. Due to the geographical conditions, the average discharge maximums shift from summer to winter downstream the Rhine. Moreover, the spatial and temporalprecipitation patterns of each river have a strong influence on the individual flood events. Some recent extraordinary floods are used to illustrate the parameters that have influenced these events.A strong relationship between recent climate change observationsand the occurrence of flood levels cannot be proven. However, the consequences of human interventions and the resulting changes to the river system (the Rhine and its tributaries) for the hydrograph can be quantified precisely.The influences of different land-use and climatic scenarios on flood conditions in the Rhine basin have not yet been separately identified. Thus, the Dutch-German project LAHoR was established. The primary aim of this project is to giveadvice for the ``Action Plan on Flood Defence' of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (IKSR). In this plan a multidisciplinary approach to mitigating floods is suggested.It is anticipated that the plan willgenerate synergistic effects between flood prevention, water management, regional planning, agriculture, forestry and ecological demands.