晴天及阴天条件下WRF模式中几种边界层参数化方案的对比分析研究

利用WRF模式中5种常用边界层参数化方案(ACM2、YSU、BouLac、MYJ和MYNN2.5)及美国能源部大气辐射观测试验(ARM)寿县综合观测数据(2008年8—12月),对比分析了晴天及阴天条件下,不同参数化方案对典型农田下垫面气象要素及边界层结构的模拟效果,结果表明:(1)模式对于云层状况的模拟,非局地方案ACM2和YSU方案优于局地方案.(2)对于近地层气象要素,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案对于2 m温度和比湿的模拟效果最好,MYJ方案对于风向风速的模拟效果最好.(3)对于位温及比湿垂直廓线的模拟,晴天和阴天条件下均是非局地方案(ACM2和YSU)对白天的模拟效果优于局地方案;ACM2方案对夜间弱稳定层结和逆湿结构的模拟最优;(4)对于风速垂直廓线的模拟,白天不稳定条件下,晴天条件MYJ方案最优,阴天MYNN2.5方案的模拟效果最好;夜间弱稳定条件下,晴天条件ACM2方案与观测值之间的偏差最小,阴天YSU方案模拟效果最好;(5)总体而言,在对典型农田下垫面进行模拟时,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案更具优势.     

两种边界层参数化方案模拟热带气旋Megi(2010)路径差异的机理分析

本文利用中尺度数值模式WRF,分别采用YSU和MYJ两种边界层参数化方案对2010年超强台风Megi的移动路径进行了模拟,研究了热带气旋(TC)路径模拟对边界层方案的敏感性,并从模拟TC尺度差异所造成的影响角度揭示了模式边界层方案影响TC路径的机理.结果表明:由于两种方案对边界层垂直混合作用过程的描述不同,两个试验模拟的低层水汽垂直输送存在差异.相对于能很好模拟出Megi路径的MYJ方案,YSU方案模拟的TC外围螺旋雨带更活跃,造成TC尺度增大,引起TC中心北侧外围气压梯度和径向风速增加,使得由副高向TC中心输送更多的质量,造成副高异常减弱,从而导致由副高主导的引导气流发生改变,最终使得采用YSU方案模拟的Megi路径出现提前转向.     

MYJ和YSU方案对WRF边界层气象要素模拟的影响

研究新一代中尺度气象模式WRF中两种大气边界层方案(MYJ,YSU)对沈阳冬季大气边界层结构模拟的影响,重点分析温度层结、低层风场、边界层高度等对污染物扩散有重要影响的气象要素.和观测数据的比对表明WRF基本能够模拟出温度风速的日变化特征,但模拟风速偏大.YSU方案由于模拟的边界层顶卷挟和边界层内混合作用较强,夜间接地逆温强度低于MYJ方案,逆温维持时间比MYJ方案短4小时,同时模拟边界层高度也高于MYJ方案,有利于污染物垂直扩散.边界层高度的3种计算方法中,湍流动能方法计算的边界层高度最高,Richardson数方法次之,位温方法得到的高度最低.Richardson数方法对临界值的选取较敏感.     

边界层参数化方案对边界层热力和动力结构特征影响的比较

本文利用高分辨率中尺度WRF模式,通过改变边界层参数化方案进行多组试验,评估该模式对美国北部森林地区边界层结构的模拟能力,同时比较了五种不同边界层参数化方案模拟得出的边界层热力和动力结构.结果表明：除个别方案外,配合不同边界层方案的WRF模式都能成功模拟出白天对流边界层强湍流混合特征和夜间稳定边界层内强逆温、逆湿和低空急流等热力和动力结构.非局地YSU、ACM2方案在白天表现出强的湍流混合和卷夹,相比于局地MYJ、UW方案,模拟的对流边界层温度更高、湿度更低、混合层高度更高、感热通量更大,更接近实际观测,这表明在不稳定层结下考虑非局地大涡输送更为合理,但局地方案在风速和风向的预报上存在一定优势.TEMF方案得到的白天局地湍流混合强度为所有方案中最弱,混合层难以发展,无法体现对流边界层内气象要素垂直分布均匀的特点.对于夜间稳定边界层的模拟,不同参数化方案之间的差异较小,但是YSU方案在一定程度上高估了机械湍流,导致局地湍流混合偏强,从而影响了其对稳定边界层的模拟能力.     

基于WRF模式的青藏高原斜坡和平台加热影响亚洲夏季风的模拟研究

青藏高原大地形的热力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和发展具有重要的影响.本文利用较高分辨率的WRF区域模式,探讨了高原不同区域(斜坡和平台)的地形加热分别对南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风的影响.结果表明:高原南部喜马拉雅山脉的斜坡地形加热对其周围局地的环流形势和降水影响十分明显,是南亚夏季风北支分量形成和维持的主导因子,也是斜坡上气流爬坡和降水发生的必要条件.斜坡加热对东亚夏季风也有明显的增强作用,它不仅加强了中国东部低空西南季风环流,还会造成北部南下的异常干冷空气的响应.斜坡上的地形加热作用也是对流层高层暖中心位置维持在斜坡上空的一个重要原因.而高原平台加热对季风环流和降水的影响虽然没有喜马拉雅山脉斜坡加热那么显著,但是对南亚夏季风的影响范围更广,对经向哈得来环流影响更明显,能够调控高原以外更远处热带洋面上的西南季风环流.通过比较高原不同区域地形加热条件下的多种季风指数,进一步表明了高原地形加热对南亚和东亚夏季风均有增强作用,但是高原不同区域的地形加热对两类夏季风子系统又会产生不一样的影响.     

The East Asian Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from geological records in northern China

The impact of global warming on the climate of northern China has been investigated intensively, and the behavior of the East Asian monsoon during previous intervals of climatic warming may provide insight into future changes. In this study, we use paleovegetation records from loess and lake sediments in the marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) to reconstruct the EASM during the interval of warming from the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) to the Holocene. The results show that during the LGM, desert steppe or dry steppe dominated much of northern China; in addition, the southeastern margin of the deserts east of the Helan Mountains had a distribution similar to that of the present-day, or was located slightly further south, due to the cold and dry climate caused by a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and weakened EASM. During the last deglaciation, with the strengthening of the EASM and concomitant weakening of the EAWM, northern China gradually became humid. However, this trend was interrupted by abrupt cooling during the Heinrich 1(H1) and Younger Dryas(YD) events. The EASM intensified substantially during the Holocene, and the monsoon rain belt migrated at least 300 km northwestwards, which led to the substantial shrinking of the desert area in the central and eastern part of northern China, and to the large expansion of plants favored by warm and humid conditions. Paleoclimatic records from the marginal zone of the EASM all show that the EASM reached its peak in the mid-Holocene, and past global climatic warming significantly strengthened the EASM, thereby greatly improving the ecological environment in northern China. Thus, northern China is expected to become wetter as global warming continues. Finally, high resolution Holocene vegetation records are sparse compared with the numerous records on the orbital timescale, and there is a need for more studies of Holocene climatic variability on the centennial-to-decadal scale.     

变网格大气模式对1998年东亚夏季风异常的模拟研究

本文利用法国国家科研中心(CNRS)动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的可变网格的格点大气环流模式LMDZ4,对1998年东亚夏季降水进行了模拟,考查了变网格模式对东亚夏季降水的模拟性能.结果表明,模式在一定程度上能模拟出东亚夏季降水的极大值中心、夏季风雨带以及降水由东南向西北递减的空间分布特征.模式基本再现了1998年夏季两次雨带的进退特征,包括降水强度、雨带范围等,从而合理再现了1998年夏季江淮地区的"二度梅"现象.与观测相比,模拟的不足在于:在陡峭地形区附近存在虚假降水;江淮和华北地区以及四川盆地存在水汽输送的气旋式辐合偏差,同时高层环流辐散偏强,使得下层暖湿空气辐合上升、降水偏多;在东南地区存在反气旋式的水汽输送偏差,30°N以南地区降水偏少.对于1998年的"二度梅"现象,模拟偏差主要表现为长江中下游地区两次(特别是第二次)较强降水持续时间偏短,强降水范围偏小,而黄淮和华南地区却降水偏多.分析表明,模式对两次梅雨期降水的模拟偏差直接受环流形势模拟偏差的影响.LMDZ4区域模式版本的特点一是区域加密,二是加密区内预报场每10天向再分析资料恢复一次.敏感试验结果表明,LMDZ4加密区向强迫场的10天尺度恢复总体上有利于提高模式对华北降水的模拟能力,而对长江流域和华南降水的模拟具有不利影响.较之均匀网格模拟试验,加密试验由于在东亚的分辨率大大提高,对东亚夏季降水模拟效果更好.     

WRF模式不同陆面方案对一次暴雨事件模拟的影响

本文利用中尺度模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.1版本及National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)分析资料,就2003年6月下旬我国江淮及南方地区的强降水事件, 以24 h短期天气模拟的方式,研究了模式中四个不同陆面方案对降水模拟的影响.结果表明,此次暴雨事件模拟对不同陆面方案是比较敏感的,模拟区域内雨量级别越高,不同方案的TS评分差异就越大,较大范围雨量可存在30%的差异,四种方案的暴雨中心值可存在100%～150%的较大差别;不同陆面方案还导致了模拟平均感热通量及潜热通量的系统性差异,这些差异的分布具有地域特点;陆面方案通过两种机理对模拟降水产生重要影响,即主要影响地表蒸发量,以及主要影响低层环流及水汽辐合,从而分别影响模拟的较大范围降水(如,平均约7%、最大约30%的较大范围雨量差异)及包含模拟降水中心的较小范围暴雨(如,方案间暴雨中心雨量可存在100%～150%的较大差别).可见,不同陆面过程可从不同空间尺度、不同程度上影响暴雨天气,改进陆面方案可以提高WRF模式对暴雨的模拟能力.     

耦合模式长期积分中东亚夏季风与ENSO联系的不稳定性

通过对挪威卑尔根全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合模式300a控制积分结果进行交叉子波分析,揭示了东亚夏季风（EASM）与同期Nio3区（90°W～150°W,5°S～5°N）海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在长期变化中是不稳定的,呈现出明显的阶段性特征.气候要素场在二者联系的紧密（HCP）和微弱（LCP）时期差别显著,在HCP时期,西北太平洋对流层低层出现一对耦合的异常气旋和反气旋性环流系统;东南亚地区对流层低层表现为强东风异常,风速的年际变率加大;热带西太平洋对流层温度和位势高度场的年际变率普遍加强.此外,中国夏季降水与同期Nio3区海洋表面温度异常的相关关系在上述两种时期也存在较大差别.     

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Climate control on summer precipitation in the Source Region of Three Rivers,China: East or South Asian summer monsoon?

ABSTRACT

The Source Region of Three Rivers (SRTR) has experienced wetter summer seasons than before in recent decades due to climate change. As the most important source of surface water, precipitation plays a key role in supplying the three largest rivers. This study investigates the impacts of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on precipitation in the SRTR. Using wavelet analysis tools, we found that: (i) summer precipitation in the SRTR showed notably different responses to the monsoon variability among the 14 stations studied; (ii) the influence of the EASM and SASM on summer precipitation was stronger in the southern and eastern SRTR; but (iii) this influence quickly dampened from southeast to northwest and became almost indiscernible in the northwestern SRTR. This research may help to increase the accuracy of long-term monsoon-rainfall prediction and improve water resource management in the SRTR.     

Environment Variation in North Margin of East Asian Summer Monsoon Record in Dali Lake over Past 168 Years

Water Resources - Lakes close to the limit of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) are sensitive to the climate changes, which record significant information about environmental changes and human...     

Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by regional climate model

ClimateconditionsintheLastGlacialMaximum(LGM)wereremarkablydifferentfromthepresentones.LGMglobalmeantemperaturewas5℃-10℃dropbutprecipitationdecreasescommonly.LGMhasbecomethekeyphasetoreconstructtheearthenvironmentalfield,retrieveextremecoldclimatecondit…     

东亚夏季风年代际变化的若干重要特征及两份大气再分析资料的异同

本文利用ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，以及部分观测资料，研究了东亚夏季风年代际变化的若干重要特征. 结果表明，东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代末减弱这一现象是普遍存在的，主要表现为江淮地区表面温度降低，海平面气压升高，出现偏北风异常. 研究发现，这次年代际变化还体现在与东亚季风环流密切相关的重要环流因子，如西太平洋副热带高压、欧亚西风、澳大利亚高压、南极涛动等，它们在20世纪70年代末以后都进入高指数时期. 此外，文章还揭示：ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料在东亚夏季风年代际变化上基本吻合，但也有很多差别.     

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.     

YSU边界层参数化方案中不同地形订正方法对地面风速及温度模拟的影响

为了修正中尺度气象模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)对低层风速模拟的系统性误差,有学者在新版本WRF模式的YSU(Yonsei University)边界层参数化方案中加入了两个地形订正方法:Jiménez方法和UW(University of Washington method)方法.本文利用这两个地形订正方法,选取了两个时间段,对北京地区的地面气象要素以及气象要素垂直廓线进行了个例模拟研究,模拟结果和观测数据的比对表明在北京地区:是否采用地形订正,对地面温度的模拟几乎没有影响;采用地形订正后,模式对地面风速的模拟有明显的改进,两种方法对风速模拟的差别主要体现在山/丘陵地区;Jiménez方法在山/丘陵地区的模拟风速明显偏大,而采用UW方法进行订正后,模拟的风速减小,更接近观测值;两种方法在山谷地区对风速均有一定的过度订正.通过分析气象要素的垂直廓线发现,不同地形订正方法主要影响的是2000m以下的低层风速.总体而言,UW地形订正方法在北京地区更为适用,采用UW方法后,模拟得到的地面气象要素的各项统计参数基本达到了统计基准值.     

Spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes over the Loess Plateau in China and its relationship with climate and the environment

China's Loess Plateau is located at the edge of the Asian summer monsoon in a transition zone of climate and ecology. In the Loess Plateau, climate and environments change along with space, which has an obvious impact on the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes. Because of scarce land-surface observation sites and short observation time in this area, previous studies have failed to fully understand the land-surface energy balance characteristics over the entire the Loess Plateau and their effect mechanisms. In this paper, we first test the simulation ability of the Community Land Model(CLM) model by comparing its simulated data with observed data. Based on the simulation data for the Loess Plateau over the past thirty years, we then analyze the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes and compare the pattern differences between the area averages for the driest year and wettest year. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the spatial distribution of the components of the surface energy balance with longitude, latitude, altitude, precipitation and temperature. The main results are as follows: the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes are significantly different, with the surface net radiation and sensible heat flux increasing from south to north and latent heat flux and soil heat flux decreasing from southeast to northwest. The sensible heat flux at the driest point is nearly twice as high as that at the wettest point, whereas the latent heat flux and soil heat flux at the driest point are half as much as that at the wettest point. The impact of variations of annual precipitation on the components of the surface energy balance is also obvious, and the maximum magnitude of the changes to the sensible heat flux and latent heat flux is nearly 30%. To a certain extent, geographical factors(including longitude, latitude, and altitude) and climate factors(including temperature and precipitation) affect the surface energy fluxes. However, the surface net radiation is more closely related to latitude and altitude, sensible heat flux is more closely related to the monsoon rainfall and latitude, and latent heat flux and soil heat flux are more closely related to the monsoon rainfall.     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动影响区域大尺度环流的数值模拟研究

本文利用"模式手术"方法研究了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)对东亚—西北太平洋区域大尺度环流的影响.结果表明,夏季频繁的西北太平洋TC活动导致东亚夏季风增强,季风槽加深;西太平洋副热带高压东退,位置偏北;东亚副热带高空急流强度增强,北太平洋(东亚大陆)上急流轴偏北(偏南);热带地区(副热带地区)的对流层中低层出现异常上升气流(下沉气流),并且从低纬向高纬呈现异常上升气流和异常下沉气流交替分布特征.在中国东南沿海,TC降水导致夏季降水量明显增加;而在长江中下游和华北地区,TC活动引起的异常下沉气流使夏季降水量显著减少.因此,夏季西北太平洋TC活动对东亚—西北太平洋区域气候有显著影响.     

A climatological northern boundary index for the East Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability

A long-term perspective on the spatial variation of the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and the related physical mechanisms is important for understanding past climate change in Asia and for predicting future changes. However, most of the meteorological definitions of the EASM northern boundary do not correspond well to the actual geographical environment, which is problematic for paleoclimatic research. Here, we use monthly CMAP and GPCP precipitation data to define a new EASM northern boundary index by using the concept of the global monsoon, which is readily applicable to paleoclimatic research. The results show that the distribution of the 2 mm day~(-1) precipitation isoline(i.e., 300 mm precipitation)has a good relationship with the spatial distribution of modern land cover types, the transitional climate zone and the potential natural vegetation types, in China. The locations of the precipitation isolines also correspond well to the locations of major shifts in wind direction. These results suggest that the 2 mm day~(-1) isoline has a clear physical significance since the climatic, ecological,and geographical boundary can be used as the northern boundary index of the EASM(which we call the climatological northern boundary index). The index depicts the northeast-southwest orientation of the climatological(1981-2010) EASM northern boundary, along the eastern part of the Qilian Mountains-southern foothills of the Helan Mountains-Daqing Mountains-western margin of the Greater Khingan Range, from west to east across Northwest and Northeast China. The interannual change of the EASM northern boundary from 1980 to 2015 covers the central part of Gansu, the northern part of Ningxia, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the northeastern region in China. It can extend northward to the border between China and Mongolia and retreat southward to Shangdong-central Henan. There is a 200-700 km fluctuation range of the interannual EASM northern boundaries around the locations of the climatological northern boundary. In addition, the spatial variation of the interannual EASM northern boundaries gradually increases from west to east, whereas the trend of north-south fluctuations maintains a roughly consistent location in different regions.     

On the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon maximum during the Holocene—Does the speleothem oxygen isotope record reflect monsoon rainfall variability?

The evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) during the Holocene has long been of significant interest.Knowledge of past EASM variability not only increases our understanding of monsoon dynamics on a long timescale,but it also provides an environmental and climatic background for research into Chinese cultural development.However,the timing of the EASM maximum remains controversial.The popular concept of an "early Holocene maximum" is mainly based on speleothemδ~(18)O(δ~(18)O_c) records from caves in southern China;however,the interpretation of δ~(18)O_C as a reliable proxy for EASM intensity is being increasingly challenged.The present paper is a critical review of the climatic significance of the δ~(18)O_C record from China.Firstly,we suggest that precipitation in northern China is an appropriate index of EASM intensity,the variation of which clearly indicates a mid-Holocene monsoon maximum.Secondly,an interregional comparison demonstrates that the precipitation record in northern China is quite different from that in southern China on a range of timescales,and is inconsistent with the spatial similarity exhibited by speleothem oxygen isotope records.Furthermore,both modeling and observational data show that the δ~(18)O_C records from southern China indeed reflect changes in precipitation δ~(18)O(δ~(18)O_P) rather than precipitation amount,and therefore that their use as an EASM proxy is inappropriate.Finally,we address several significant monsoon-related issues-including the driving mechanism of the EASM on an orbital timescale,the climatic significance of speleothem oxygen isotopes,and the relationship between atmospheric circulation and precipitation in monsoonal regions.