Numerical Model Approaches to Address Recent Problems on Pelagic Ecosystems

A review of ecosystem modeling is presented, classifying the models on the basis of the problems they address. The problems are chosen mainly from those concerning the North Pacific and encompass: limiting factors in high-nutrient/low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions; nutrient supply to the subtropical gyre; long-term variation; parameter optimization; oceanic provinces. A future research direction should be to sort out priorities of various biogeochemical and ecological processes with the long-term variation problem being the axis, while keeping the model complexity at a minimum and invoking the parameter optimization technique. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The concentration and distribution of dimethyl sulfide in the marine atmospheric boundary layer near the equator

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Turbulent mixing in stably stratified flows of the environment: The current state of the problem (Review)

Specific features of the turbulent transfer of the momentum and heat in stably stratified geophysical flows, as well as possibilities for including them into RANS turbulence models, are analyzed. The momentum (but not heat) transfer by internal gravity waves under conditions of strong stability is, for example, one such feature. Laboratory data and measurements in the atmosphere fix a clear dropping trend of the inverse turbulent Prandtl number with an increasing gradient Richardson number, which must be reproduced by turbulence models. Ignoring this feature can cause a false diffusion of heat under conditions of strong stability and lead, in particular, to noticeable errors in calculations of the temperature in the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, models of turbulent transfer must include the effect of the action of buoyancy and internal gravity waves on turbulent flows of the momentum. Such a strategy of modeling the stratified turbulence is presented in the review by a concrete RANS model and original results obtained during the modeling of stratified flows in the environment. Semiempirical turbulence models used for calculations of complex turbulent flows in deep stratified bodies of water are also analyzed. This part of the review is based on the data of investigations within the framework of the large international scientific Comparative Analysis and Rationalization of Second-Moment Turbulence Models (CARTUM) project and other publications of leading specialists. The most economical and effective approach associated with modified two-parameter turbulence models is a real alternative to classical variants of these models. A class of test problems and laboratory and full-scale experiments used by the participants of the CARTUM project for the approbation of numerical models are considered.     

Acoustic models and sonar systems

The basic types of acoustic models are reviewed. These include ray models, spectral integral models, normal mode models, parabolic equation modeling, and 3-D acoustic modeling. Their application to conventional sonar simulation problems is demonstrated. Examples of their use in more advanced signal processing applications are presented     

Numerical modeling of methane emissions from lakes in the permafrost zone

A brief review of published observations of methane fluxes to the atmosphere from bogs and lakes in the permafrost zone is presented. Approaches to modeling the emission of methane from bogs are considered, and their advantages and shortcomings, in particular, from the point of view of their coupling to climate models, are outlined. A one-dimensional model developed by the authors for methane generation, transport, and sink in the ground-water body system and coupled to a hydrothermodynamic model of a water body is described. The approaches used in analogous models for bogs as well as new parametrizations describing lake-specific processes are applied. A parametrization of methane generation in vicinity the lower boundary of the thawed ground zone underneath a water body (talik) is suggested. The results of calibrating this model against available observations of methane emission from the thermokarst Shuchi Lake in northeastern Siberia are discussed.     

Observational and numerical modeling methods for quantifying coastal ocean turbulence and mixing

In this review paper, state-of-the-art observational and numerical modeling methods for small scale turbulence and mixing with applications to coastal oceans are presented in one context. Unresolved dynamics and remaining problems of field observations and numerical simulations are reviewed on the basis of the approach that modern process-oriented studies should be based on both observations and models. First of all, the basic dynamics of surface and bottom boundary layers as well as intermediate stratified regimes including the interaction of turbulence and internal waves are briefly discussed. Then, an overview is given on just established or recently emerging mechanical, acoustic and optical observational techniques. Microstructure shear probes although developed already in the 1970s have only recently become reliable commercial products. Specifically under surface waves turbulence measurements are difficult due to the necessary decomposition of waves and turbulence. The methods to apply Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) for estimations of Reynolds stresses, turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rates are under further development. Finally, applications of well-established turbulence resolving particle image velocimetry (PIV) to the dynamics of the bottom boundary layer are presented. As counterpart to the field methods the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling in coastal seas is presented. This includes the application of the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) method to shallow water Langmuir Circulation (LC) and to stratified flow over a topographic obstacle. Furthermore, statistical turbulence closure methods as well as empirical turbulence parameterizations and their applicability to coastal ocean turbulence and mixing are discussed. Specific problems related to the combined wave-current bottom boundary layer are discussed. Finally, two coastal modeling sensitivity studies are presented as applications, a two-dimensional study of upwelling and downwelling and a three-dimensional study for a marginal sea scenario (Baltic Sea). It is concluded that the discussed methods need further refinements specifically to account for the complex dynamics associated with the presence of surface and internal waves.     

Interannual and seasonal variations in ozone in different atmospheric layers over St. Petersburg based on observational data and numerical modeling

This paper analyzes atmospheric ozone variability at different altitudes over St. Petersburg for the period 2009–2014 on the basis of surface observations at the Peterhof station, satellite measurements with an SBUV instrument, and numerical simulations. Simulation data on temperature, wind velocity, humidity, and surface pressure are taken from the MERRA reanalysis database. Based on ozone measurements, numerical modeling, and reanalysis data, characteristics of ozone seasonal and interannual changes are identified; the role of photochemical and dynamic factors in ozone variations is estimated.     

Wind waves in the coastal zone of the southern crimea: Assessment of simulation quality based on in situ measurements

The study verifies the Black Sea wave model using field data obtained from the Katsiveli research platform. The WAM and mesoscale MM5 and WRF atmospheric models, which are used to calculate the wind field for the wave model, were recently adjusted to the Black Sea region at the Marine Hydrophysical Institute. The results of the work are presented as characteristics of the simulation quality used in world practice in other regions. The scatter index for a significant wave height is 70% in summer and 50% in winter. The values of the scatter index of wave parameters and wind speed appear to be at the same level as in semi-enclosed seas on the northern side of the Mediterranean Sea. It is shown that atmospheric simulation correctly reproduces the interaction between synoptic processes and the mountain range extending alongshore. Error sources in wave simulation are discussed. The most significant drawback is the possibility of mesoscale instability in the atmospheric model without assimilation of observation data within the computational domain.     

Modeling sediment transport in the swash zone: A review

A critical review of conceptual and mathematical models developed in recent decades on sediment transport in the swash zone is presented. Numerous studies of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport in the swash zone in recent years have pointed out the importance of swash processes in terms of science advancement and practical applications. Evidently, the hydrodynamics of the swash zone are complex and not fully understood. Key hydrodynamic processes include both high-frequency bores and low-frequency infragravity motions, and are affected by wave breaking and turbulence, shear stresses and bottom friction. The prediction of sediment transport that results from these complex and interacting processes is a challenging task. Besides, sediment transport in this oscillatory environment is affected by high-order processes such as the beach groundwater flow. Most relationships between sediment transport and flow characteristics are empirical, based on laboratory experiments and/or field measurements. Analytical solutions incorporating key factors such as sediment characteristics and concentration, waves and coastal aquifer interactions are unavailable. Therefore, numerical models for wave and sediment transport are widely used by coastal engineers. This review covers mechanisms of sediment transport, important forcing factors, governing equations of wave-induced flow, groundwater interactions, empirical and numerical relations of cross-shore and longshore sediment transport in the swash zone. Major advantages and shortcomings of various numerical models and approaches are highlighted and reviewed. These will provide coastal modelers an impetus for further detailed investigations of fluid and sediment transport in the swash zone.     

Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)

Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations.The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.     

用于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的海气耦合模式综述：中间型和混合型模式

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)是地球气候系统中最强的年际变率信号, 起源于热带太平洋海气相互作用过程, 并对全球的天气和气候等产生显著的影响。过去几十年来, 广泛、深入而细致的海气相互作用研究致力于发展和改进海气耦合模式以用于ENSO模拟和预测, 各种类型的海气耦合模式应运而生。经过半个多世纪的努力, ENSO数值模式及其应用已经取得了巨大进展, 包括已发展了一些高度理想化的概念(concept)模型来解释ENSO准周期性循环(包括正负反馈机制等); 同时也已发展了几类复杂程度不同的海气耦合模式并用于对ENSO的真实模拟和实时预测等研究, 尤其是已能提前6个月或更长时间对ENSO事件的发生和发展等进行有效的实时预测。其中最为复杂的模式是基于原始方程组的大气环流模式(Atmospheric General Circulation Models, AGCMs)与海洋环流模式(Oceanic General Circulation Models, OGCMs)等所组成的环流型耦合模式(Coupled General Circulation Models, CGCMs), 这类模式变量取为完全变量的形式(如总的海表温度场, 其可以分解为气候态部分和年际异常部分), 还考虑了尽可能详尽的物理过程及其参数化方案。中间型耦合模式(Intermediate Coupled Models, ICMs)是一类介于高度理想化概念模型与复杂的环流型耦合模式之间的简化模式, 其对应的控制方程组采用距平形式, 直接取大气和海洋年际异常场作为预报变量(如海表温度年际异常), 而相应的气候平均态部分则由对应的观测资料来给定; 大气与海洋模式间的耦合采用异常耦合(anomaly coupling)。混合型耦合模式(Hybrid Coupled Models, HCMs)是另一类简化的海气耦合模式, 其中海洋或大气模式有一个分量模式采用了简化的距平类模式(类似于ICMs),而另一个分量模式则采用环流型模式(General Circulation Models, GCMs); 如可采用统计的大气风应力年际异常模式与OGCM间的耦合而构建一种HCM_OGCM,也可采用简化的海洋距平类模式(如ICM中的海洋分量模式)与AGCM间的耦合而构建另一种HCM^AGCM。历史上, ICMs、HCMs和CGCMs等这几类耦合模式都在ENSO理论体系的发展、数值模拟和实时预测等方面都起到了重要作用。本文主要回顾作者与合作者所研发的ICMs和HCMs的构建、特点和应用例子等。     

Design estimates of surface wave interaction with compliant deepwater platforms

The extreme behavior of surface waves as they encounter and pass compliant deepwater platforms is an important class of problems for offshore engineers attempting to specify the platform deck elevation. In this study analytical expressions for the probability density and cumulative distribution functions that utilize empirical coefficients in an attempt to accurately model surface wave runup and airgap problems are presented. The analysis focuses upon interpreting the tails of the measured data histograms using two parameter Weibull distribution models. The appropriate empirical constants, assumed to be solely dependent upon the significant wave height, were evaluated and compared for all the test data. Based upon a small select set of data, for a mini-TLP and two Spar platforms, the airgap problem was found to be adequately modeled using a Rayleigh distribution. Further, for the seven seastates analyzed, the Weibull shape parameter was nearly constant and the data confirmed that the exclusive fit of the scale parameter assuming dependence only on the significant wave height was a reasonable approach for modeling the wave runup. Finally, by combining these models with a Poisson return model for each storm the associated reliability estimates for various deck heights were estimated.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

Natural air–sea flux of CO2 in simulations of the NASA-GISS climate model: Sensitivity to the physical ocean model formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO₂ gas exchange (natural flux of CO₂) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air–sea flux of CO₂. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air–sea flux of CO₂, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO₂) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).     

Atmospheric inputs of metals and nutrients to the oceans: their magnitude and effects

The estimates of atmospheric inputs of metals and nutrients to the oceans and some coastal areas are reviewed and the uncertainties in these estimates considered. The evidence that these inputs significantly modify oceanic chemistry is presented. However, there are still major uncertainties in our understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean for these elements. Two of these areas of uncertainty, atmospheric deposition processes and the ecological effects of atmospheric inputs, are considered in detail.     

生态模型在渔业管理中的应用

随着人们对于海洋生态的认识逐渐深入,渔业等人类活动的影响受到了更多的关注,"基于生态系统的渔业管理"（EBFM）这一概念被越来越多的研究者和国际组织所接受。生态模型为EBFM的实践提供了科学的评估方法和技术工具。与单鱼种评估模型相比,生态模型更多地考虑了系统内的各种生态过程和作用机制,栖息地等环境条件的变化,以及生态系统整体的结构和功能等,依此来反映生态系统的动态变化。由于生态模型是多样化的,关注和涉及不同的目标对象、机制过程、模型结构和参数,本文按照生态模型所关注的生态层次和组分将其分为多物种模型、群落结构模型和生态系统模型3个类型,分析了各类模型的优劣点。本文进一步阐述了生态模型在渔业管理中的应用领域,以管理策略评估为中心的应用方式,以及实践中模型选择和构建所需要注意的问题,还探讨了生态模型中降低不确定性和提高预测能力的方法。     

Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Decadal-scale climate variations in the Pacific Ocean wield a strong influence on the oceanic ecosystem. Two dominant patterns of large-scale SST variability and one dominant pattern of large-scale thermocline variability can be explained as a forced oceanic response to large-scale changes in the Aleutian Low. The physical mechanisms that generate this decadal variability are still unclear, but stochastic atmospheric forcing of the ocean combined with atmospheric teleconnections from the tropics to the midlatitudes and some weak ocean-atmosphere feedbacks processes are the most plausible explanation. These observed physical variations organize the oceanic ecosystem response through large-scale basin-wide forcings that exert distinct local influences through many different processes. The regional ecosystem impacts of these local processes are discussed for the Tropical Pacific, the Central North Pacific, the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and the California Current System regions in the context of the observed decadal climate variability. The physical ocean-atmosphere system and the oceanic ecosystem interact through many different processes. These include physical forcing of the ecosystem by changes in solar fluxes, ocean temperature, horizontal current advection, vertical mixing and upwelling, freshwater fluxes, and sea ice. These also include oceanic ecosystem forcing of the climate by attenuation of solar energy by phytoplankton absorption and atmospheric aerosol production by phytoplankton DMS fluxes. A more complete understanding of the complicated feedback processes controlling decadal variability, ocean ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling requires a concerted and organized long-term observational and modeling effort. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sub-inertial oscillations in the Black Sea generated by the semidiurnal tidal potential

The Black Sea shelf is a region of intense manifestation of various dynamical processes. Under the influence of different natural forces, eddy-wave phenomena develop here, which influence the general circulation of sea waters, biological productivity, and the condition of the engineering structures. Modern numerical models allow us to simulate and analyze the processes of the joint dynamics of marine circulation and large-scale waves. In this work, we study the spatiotemporal spectral characteristics of the sea level and velocity fluctuations formed due to atmospheric forcing and tidal potential. The hydrophysical fields are calculated using the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), σ model based on primitive equations. We use the CORE data as atmospheric forcing at the sea surface; the tidal potential is described by the semidiurnal lunar constituent M₂. Analyzing the simulation results makes it possible to emphasize that accounting for the semidiurnal tidal potential not only improves the accuracy of the sea-level calculation at coastal stations, but also generates subinertial baroclinic oscillations previously found in the Black Sea from the data of in situ observations.     

Analysis and Design of Monopile Foundations for Offshore Wind-Turbine Structures

Offshore wind turbines (OWTs) are generally supported by large-diameter monopiles, with the combination of axial forces, lateral forces, bending moments, and torsional moments generated by the OWT structure and various environmental factors resisted by earth pressures mobilized in the soil foundation. The lateral loading on the monopile foundation is essentially cyclic in nature and typically of low amplitude. This state-of-the-art review paper presents details on the geometric design, nominal size, and structural and environmental loading for existing and planned OWT structures supported by monopile foundations. Pertinent ocean-environment loading conditions, including methods of calculation using site-specific data, are described along with wave particle kinematics, focusing on correlations between the loading frequency and natural vibration frequency of the OWT structure. Existing methods for modeling soil under cyclic loading are reviewed, focusing in particular on strain accumulation models that consider pile–soil interaction under cyclic lateral loading. Inherent limitations/shortcomings of these models for the analysis and design of existing and planned OWT monopile foundations are discussed. A design example of an OWT support structure having a monopile foundation system is presented. Target areas for further research by the wind-energy sector, which would facilitate the development of improved analyses/design methods for offshore monopiles, are identified.     

Resolving physically and biologically driven suspended particulate matter dynamics in a tidal basin with a distribution-based model

Understanding suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in coastal waters is crucial to assess changes in coastal sediment budgets and biogeochemical fluxes. SPM dynamics are subject to various physical and biological factors and processes such as, e.g. tidal currents and aggregation which can be enhanced by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) that are produced by algae and bacteria. It is still unclear how the different factors and processes interact and together determine SPM dynamics. To unravel the interacting processes and factors, we propose a new distribution-based modeling approach. Based on the derivation of explicit equations for size distribution characteristics of SPM such as the average radius, we derived a model of reduced complexity characterized by low initialization and parameterization effort as well as low computational cost. The proposed 0D model includes the processes of aggregation and fragmentation due to shear, aggregation due to differential settling, deposition, resuspension and tidal exchange, and describes the evolution of the SPM concentration in the water column linked by the settling velocity to the change of the mass average radius of the aggregate distribution. A systematic parameter variation for critical bottom shear stress of erosion, the size of resuspended aggregates, the fractal dimension, the collision efficiency, and the aggregate strength has been performed and compared to observations in the back-barrier basin of Spiekeroog Island in the German Wadden Sea. This analysis confirms the hypothesis that in winter biological influences on SPM dynamics are smaller compared to summer. This is mainly reflected by a significant shift in the various parameters. We hence conclude that biological control mechanisms have a much more quantitative relevance for SPM dynamics than currently represented by state-of-the-art SPM transport models.