Wheat crop production estimation using satellite data

This paper reports acreage, yield and production forecasting of wheat crop using remote sensing and agrometeorological data for the 1998–99 rabi season. Wheat crop identification and discrimination using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) ID LISS III satellite data was carried out by supervised maximum likelihood classification. Three types of wheat crop viz. wheat-1 (high vigour-normal sown), wheat-2 (moderate vigour-late sown) and wheat-3 (low vigour-very late sown) have been identified and discriminated from each other. Before final classification of satellite data spectral separability between classes were evaluated. For yield prediction of wheat crop spectral vegetation indices (RVI and NDVI), agrometeorological parameters (ET_max and TD) and historical crop yield (actual yield) trend analysis based linear and multiple linear regression models were developed. The estimated wheat crop area was 75928.0 ha. for the year 1998–99, which sowed ?2.59% underestimation with land record commissioners estimates. The yield prediction through vegetation index based and vegetation index with agrometeorological indices based models were 1753 kg/ha and 1754 kg/ha, respectively and have shown relative deviation of 0.17% and 0.22%, the production estimates from above models when compared with observed production show relative deviation of ?2.4% and ?2.3% underestimations, respectively.     

Multiple forecasts of kharif rice in orissa state-four year experience of fasal pilot study

Considering the requirement of multiple pre-harvest crop forecasts, the concept of Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology and Land based observations (FASAL) has been formulated. Development of procedure and demonstration of this technique for four in-season forecasts for kharif rice has been carried out as a pilot study in Orissa State since 1998. As the availability of cloud-free optical remote sensing data during kharif season is very poor for Orissa state, multi-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data were used for acreage estimation of kharif rice. Meteorological models have been developed for early assessment of acreage and prediction of yield at mid and late crop growth season. Four in-season forecasts were made during four kharif seasons (1998-2001); the first forecast of zone level rice acreage at the beginning of kharif crop season using meteorological models, second forecast of district level acreage at mid growth season using two-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data and yield using meteorological models, third forecast at late growth season of district level acreage using three-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data and yield using meteorological models and revised forecast incorporating field observations at maturity. The results of multiple forecasts have shown rice acreage estimation and yield prediction with deviation up to 14 and 11 per cent respectively. This study has demonstrated the potential of FASAL concept to provide inseason multiple forecasts using data of remote sensing, meteorology and land based observations.     

基于GIS的主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报系统研究

为了将农作物病虫害气象等级预报能力扩展到更大空间尺度,根据相邻和相近农作物种植区域的一致性,进行农作物病虫害预报模型区域化应用和拓展。建立了气象等级划分标准,在Oracle农业气象数据库和地理空间数据库的支持下,采用Visual Basic.NET和GIS组件,设计并实现了基于地理空间信息的主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报系统。该系统可对北方草原蝗虫、东北玉米螟、江南稻飞虱、黄淮棉铃虫、黄淮小麦条锈病、江淮江汉小麦赤霉病和西南地区水稻稻瘟病7大类主要作物病虫害发生发展气象等级进行实时预报,取得了较好效果。     

A Case Study on Forewarning of Yellow Rust Affected Areas on Wheat Crop Using Satellite Data

Objective of this study was to identify stripe rust affected areas of wheat crop as well as evaluation of remote sensing (RS) derived indices. Moderately low temperature and high humidity favour the growth of yellow rust. Most affected areas of Punjab are the foothill districts such as Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Ropar. Occurrence of yellow rust is possible when maximum temperature for day is below 15 °C and Temperature difference of day’s maximum and minimum temperature is less than 5 °C during the early growth of wheat. Forecast of the infestation was done using 3 days forecast of weather data obtained from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 5 km resolution. Weather forecast used was obtained from Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival System (MOSDAC) site and post infestation, identification of specific locations were done using multi-date IRS AWiFS data. It is an attempt for early detection through 3 days advance forewarning of weather which will be handy tool for planners to expedite relief measures in case of epidemic with a more focused zones of infestation as well as for crop insurers to know the location and extent of damage affected areas.     

Large-area rice yield forecasting using satellite imageries

Ability to make large-area yield prediction before harvest is important in many aspects of agricultural decision-making. In this study, canopy reflectance band ratios (NIR/RED, NIR/GRN) of paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.) at booting stage, from field measurements conducted from 1999 to 2005, were correlated with the corresponding yield data to derive regression-type yield prediction models for the first and second season crop, respectively. These yield models were then validated with ground truth measurements conducted in 2007 and 2008 at eight sites, of different soil properties, climatic conditions, and various treatments in cultivars planted and N application rates, using surface reflectance retrieved from atmospherically corrected SPOT imageries. These validation tests indicated that root mean square error of predicting grain yields per unit area by the proposed models were less than 0.7 T ha⁻¹ for both cropping seasons. Since village is the basic unit for national rice yield census statistics in Taiwan, the yield models were further used to forecast average regional yields for 14 selected villages and compared with officially reported data. Results indicate that the average yield per unit area at village scale can be forecasted with a root mean square error of 1.1 T ha⁻¹ provided no damaging weather occurred during the final month before actual harvest. The methodology can be applied to other optical sensors with similar spectral bands in the visible/near-infrared and to different geographical regions provided that the relation between yield and spectral index is established.     

Wheat growth profile: satellite monitoring and crop yield modelling

The most important advantage of the low resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA AVHRR) data is its high temporal frequency and high radiometric sensitivity which helps in vegetation detection in the visible and near-infrared spectral regions. In areas where most of the crop cultivation is in large contiguous areas, and if the AVHRR data are selected for time period such that the crop of interest is well discriminated from other crops, these data can be used for monitoring vegetative growth and condition very effectively. The present study deals with the application of AVHRR data for the monitoring of the wheat crop in its seventeen main growing districts of the Rajasthan state. The fourteen date AVHRR data covering the entire growth period have been used to generate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDV1) growth profile for the crop by masking the non-crop pixels following the two-date NDVI change method. The growth profile parameters and other derived parameters, such as post-anthesis senescence rate and areas under the entire growth profile or under selected growth periods have been related to the district average wheat yield through statistical regression models. Various methods adopted for wheat pixels masking have been critically evaluated. It is found that the wheat yield can be predicted well by the area under the profile in different growth periods.     

District wise yield models of rice in Bihar based on water requirement and meteorological data

Pre-harvest crop production forecast has been successfully provided by remote sensing technique. However, the probability to get cloud-free optical remote sensing data during kharif season is poor. Microwave data having the capability to penetrate cloud is used in the absence of cloud free optical remote sensing data. Yield models in broad band frequency range are in development stage. Meteorological yield models are developed and predicted yield is combined with area estimated by remote sensing data to provide rice production forecast. This paper describes the methodology adopted for improving the predictability of rice yield before harvest of the crop in Bihar province by taking into consideration meteorological parameters during its growth cycle upto October. Models developed using fortnightly meteorological data have been found to give reasonably fair indications of expected yield of rice in advance of harvest. The yield predictions have been made based on meteorological data and effective rainfall based on water requirement calculations representing a group of districts under similar agro-climatic zones, which could be further improved by incorporating meteorological data of individual districts within each group.     

Models for wheat yield prediction using remotely sensed canopy temperature based indices

Canopy temperature in differentially irrigated and fertilized wheat plots were collected by hand held infrared thermometer from seedling emergence to maturity for two growing seasons (1981–82 and 1982–83). Canopy temperature indices like stress degree day (SDD) and crop water stress index (CWSI) based four-parameter (crop growth stage partitioned) and two-parameter (Non-partitioned) yield models suitable for remote sensing application were developed and tested with observed yield data. From statistical analysis of the models it was concluded that crop growth stage partitioned CWSI or SDD yield model was better than non-partitioned SDD models for predicting wheat grain as well as biological yields.     

小麦冠层理化参量的高光谱遥感反演试验研究

以国产成像光谱仪所获高光谱遥感数据为基础，根据田间同步采样数据建立的基于反射光谱特征的小麦冠层生物物理和生物化学估计模型，实现了用航空高光谱遥感数据对田间小麦冠层理化参量的整体反演。结果表明：用高光谱遥感方法估计小麦冠层理化参量是可行的；以理化参数为“波段”的数字图像及其处理，为农学家以理化参量的空间分布及其差异解释作物产量空间分布差异和研究作物生态生理机理提供了新的手段。     

Spectral models for estimation of chlorophyll content, growth and yield of wheat crop

Field experiments were conducted during 1998–99 and 1999–2000 at research farm of the Department of Agricultural Meteorology, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar. Five wheat cultivars: WH 542, PBW 343, UP 2338, Raj 3765 and Sonak were sown on 25^th November, 10^th and 25^th December with four nitrogen levels viz., no nitrogen. 50, 100 and 150% of recommended dose. Leaf area index, dry matter at anthesis, final dry biomass and grain yield were recorded in all the treatments. Chlorophyll and wax contents of wheat leaves were estimated at different growth stages. Multiband spectral reflectance was measured using hand-held radiometer. Spectral indices such as simple ratio, normalized difference, transformed vegetation index, perpendicular vegetation index and greenness index were computed using the multiband spectral data. Values of all the spectral indices were maximum in 25 November sown crop with maximum dose of nitrogen (180 kg N ha^-1). PBW 343 showed higher values of all the spectral indices in comparison with other cultivars. The spectral indices recorded during maximum leaf area index stage were correlated with crop parameters. Using stepwise regression, empirical models for chlorophyll, leaf area index, dry biomass and yield prediction were developed. The ’R²’ values of these models ranged between 0.87 and 0.95.     

On the prognostics of growth profile based yield modelling

In order to improve the prognostics of yield forecasts two approaches have been explored using NDVI-based growth profiles for wheat crop of 1987-88 and 1990-91 seasons for some districts of Punjab and Haryana. Correlation of yield with variables based on profile area segments and with product of profile segment area and time to peak occurrence of growth cycle have been investigated. While the correlations are low and inconsistent for area variables, the îndex time product moment (IIPM) variable shows consistent and significant correlations and advances the date of forecast by 45-50 days over other approaches.     

农作物单产预测的运行化方法

提出了适于运行化农作物单产预测的方法。即以农作物单产区划为基础 ,通过搜集不同地区不同作物的单产预测模型 ,分析每个模型的空间适用范围 ,并从模型参数等角度筛选模型 ,然后利用这些模型进行气象站点的作物单产预测 ,并以NDVI分布图为参考数据将点上的单产数据空间外推到区域尺度。借助耕地分布估计区域水平的农作物单产。最后以 2 0 0 3年冬小麦为例 ,进行了全国 10个省的冬小麦平均单产估算 ,花费了较少的人力和时间 ,符合运行化遥感估产要求     

Integration of maximum crop response with machine learning regression model to timely estimate crop yield

Timely and reliable estimation of regional crop yield is a vital component of food security assessment, especially in developing regions. The traditional crop forecasting methods need ample time and labor to collect and process field data to release official yield reports. Satellite remote sensing data is considered a cost-effective and accurate way of predicting crop yield at pixel-level. In this study, maximum Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) during the crop-growing season was integrated with Machine Learning Regression (MLR) models to estimate wheat and rice yields in Pakistan's Punjab province. Five MLR models were compared using a fivefold cross-validation method for their predictive accuracy. The study results revealed that the regression model based on the Gaussian process outperformed over other models. The best performing model attained coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, t/ ha), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE, t/ha) of 0.75, 0.281, and 0.236 for wheat; 0.68, 0.112, and 0.091 for rice, respectively. The proposed method made it feasible to predict wheat and rice 6– 8 weeks before the harvest. The early prediction of crop yield and its spatial distribution in the region can help formulate efficient agricultural policies for sustainable social, environmental, and economic progress.     

Yield estimation of summer crops grown in a mixed cropping area,a spectral growth curve profile approach

Estimation of crop production in advance of the harvest has been an intensively researched field in agriculture. Spectral parameters derived from the spectral growth profile being indicator of growth and development characteristics of the crop have a direct utility in crop-yield modeling. The present study is undertaken in a mixed cropping area of Karveer taluka, Kolhapur district, Maharashtra, to assess feasibility of multi-date moderately coarse WiFS data in developing spectral growth curves following Badhwar model (1980) for summer groundnut and paddy. The analysis highlighted potential of moderately coarse resolution WiFS data in discriminating the crops grown in fragmented conditions, provided detailed and adequate ground truth is used. The regression models using spectral parameters explained 94 % variation in paddy yield. However, model using ground information as peak LAI in addition to spectral variables, could explain 91 % variation in groundnut yield; thus for prediction of low-yielding and poorly managed crop a convergent model is essential. Vegetative growth rate during the pre-heading phase and total growing season absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) indicated by the area under the curve are the main predictors.     

Yield estimation using SPOT-VEGETATION products: A case study of wheat in European countries

In the period 1999–2009 ten-day SPOT-VEGETATION products of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) at 1 km spatial resolution were used in order to estimate and forecast the wheat yield over Europe. The products were used together with official wheat yield statistics to fine-tune a statistical model for each NUTS2 region, based on the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method. This method has been chosen to construct the model in the presence of many correlated predictor variables (10-day values of remote sensing indicators) and a limited number of wheat yield observations. The model was run in two different modalities: the “monitoring mode”, which allows for an overall yield assessment at the end of the growing season, and the “forecasting mode”, which provides early and timely yield estimates when the growing season is on-going. Performances of yield estimation at the regional and national level were evaluated using a cross-validation technique against yield statistics and the estimations were compared with those of a reference crop growth model. Models based on either NDVI or FAPAR normalized indicators achieved similar results with a minimal advantage of the model based on the FAPAR product. Best modelling results were obtained for the countries in Central Europe (Poland, North-Eastern Germany) and also Great Britain. By contrast, poor model performances characterize countries as follows: Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Hungary. Country level yield estimates using the PLSR model in the monitoring mode, and those of a reference crop growth model that do not make use of remote sensing information showed comparable accuracies. The largest estimation errors were observed in Portugal, Spain and Finland for both approaches. This convergence may indicate poor reliability of the official yield statistics in these countries.     

Assessment of crop growth parameters of wheat under stress condition through ground based spectral data

A field experiment was conducted on wheat crop during rabi seasons of 1995–96, 1996–97 and 1997–98 to study the spectral response of wheat crop (between 490 to 1080 nm) under water and nutrient stress condition. An indigenously developed ground truth radiometer having narrow band in visible and near infrared region (490 – 1080 nm) was used. Vegetation indices derived using different band combinations and related to crop growth parameters. The near infrared spectral region of 710 – 1025 nm was found most important for monitoring stress condition. Relationship has been developed between crop growth parameters and vegetation indices. Leaf Area Index (LAI) and chlorophyll could be predicted by knowing different reflectance ratios at milking stage of crop with R² value of 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Dry biomass (DBM), Plant Water Content (PWC) and grain yield are also significantly related with reflectance ratios at flowering stage of crop with R² value of 0.90, 0.98 and 0.74, respectively.     

Regional yield estimation for winter wheat with MODIS-NDVI data in Shandong, China

The significance of crop yield estimation is well known in agricultural management and policy development at regional and national levels. The primary objective of this study was to test the suitability of the method, depending on predicted crop production, to estimate crop yield with a MODIS-NDVI-based model on a regional scale. In this paper, MODIS-NDVI data, with a 250 m resolution, was used to estimate the winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in one of the main winter-wheat-growing regions. Our study region is located in Jining, Shandong Province. In order to improve the quality of remote sensing data and the accuracy of yield prediction, especially to eliminate the cloud-contaminated data and abnormal data in the MODIS-NDVI series, the Savitzky–Golay filter was applied to smooth the 10-day NDVI data. The spatial accumulation of NDVI at the county level was used to test its relationship with winter wheat production in the study area. A linear regressive relationship between the spatial accumulation of NDVI and the production of winter wheat was established using a stepwise regression method. The average yield was derived from predicted production divided by the growing acreage of winter wheat on a county level. Finally, the results were validated by the ground survey data, and the errors were compared with the errors of agro-climate models. The results showed that the relative errors of the predicted yield using MODIS-NDVI are between −4.62% and 5.40% and that whole RMSE was 214.16 kg ha⁻¹ lower than the RMSE (233.35 kg ha⁻¹) of agro-climate models in this study region. A good predicted yield data of winter wheat could be got about 40 days ahead of harvest time, i.e. at the booting-heading stage of winter wheat. The method suggested in this paper was good for predicting regional winter wheat production and yield estimation.     

Spectral wheat growth profile in Punjab using IRS WiFS data

A functional form of crop spectral profile suggested by Badhwar was applied to district-wise wheat Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values relatively normalised by Pseudo-Invariant Feature (urban and built-up) NDVI values, derived from Wide Field Sensor (WiFS) onboard Indian Remote Sensing Satellites (IRS) for 17 dates during 1999–2000 rabi season. The goodness of overall profile fitting and the three basic parameters i.e., crop emergence date (T_o), and crop specific parameters (a and P) was found to be statistically significant. While a corresponds to profile progressive growth rate, β corresponds to profile decay rate. A comparison with earlier studies in Punjab using NOAA-AVHRR indicated improvement in relation between peak NDVI and wheat yield. The estimated time of spectral emergence and profile-derived peak NDVI follow the observed behaviour of shortened crop pre-anthesis period with delayed sowing.     

Monitoring winter wheat growth in North China by combining a crop model and remote sensing data

Both of crop growth simulation models and remote sensing method have a high potential in crop growth monitoring and yield prediction. However, crop models have limitations in regional application and remote sensing in describing the growth process. Therefore, many researchers try to combine those two approaches for estimating the regional crop yields. In this paper, the WOFOST model was adjusted and regionalized for winter wheat in North China and coupled through the LAI to the SAIL–PROSPECT model in order to simulate soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). Using the optimization software (FSEOPT), the crop model was then re-initialized by minimizing the differences between simulated and synthesized SAVI from remote sensing data to monitor winter wheat growth at the potential production level. Initial conditions, which strongly impact phenological development and growth, and which are hardly known at the regional scale (such as emergence date or biomass at turn-green stage), were chosen to be re-initialized. It was shown that re-initializing emergence date by using remote sensing data brought simulated anthesis and maturity date closer to measured values than without remote sensing data. Also the re-initialization of regional biomass weight at turn-green stage led that the spatial distribution of simulated weight of storage organ was more consistent to official yields. This approach has some potential to aid in scaling local simulation of crop phenological development and growth to the regional scale but requires further validation.     

Wheat Monitoring by Using Kernel Based Possibilistic <Emphasis Type="Italic">c</Emphasis>-Means Classifier: Bi-sensor Temporal Multi-spectral Data

The existence of mixed pixels in the satellite images has always been an area of concern. Adding to the challenge is an occurrence of non-linearity between the classes, which is generally overlooked. The study makes an attempt to solve the two frequently occurring problems by kernel based fuzzy approach. This research work deals with Possibilistic c-Means (PCM) classifier with local, global, spectral angle and hyper tangent kernels for wheat crop (Triticum aestivum) identification in Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India. The multi-temporal vegetation index data of Formosat-2 have been used which covers the whole phenology of wheat crop. The additional sensor Landsat-8 OLI imagery has been filled the crucial gap of Formosat-2 temporal datasets. Nine types of proposed kernels based PCM classifier have been applied on three temporal datasets (four, five and six date combinations) to classify two classes early sown and late sown wheat crop. These test results have been concluded that at optimized weighted constant KMOD and polynomial kernel was found effective to separate wheat crop. The five and six date combination were sufficient to discriminate early sown and late sown wheat crop.