海岸边界层的非静力模式

建立了一个３级非静力边界层模式,并采用一种新的非局地反梯度闭合方案在杭州附近复杂地形区进行了数值模拟。通过与实测资料和静力条件下的模拟结果的比较,进一步分析了非局地闭合下非静力３级边界层模式的效能。结果表明,该模式比静力模式更能合理地模拟海岩边界层的风温场和湍流场,且模拟结果与实测更接近。     

复杂下垫面地域边界层结构的三维细网格数值模拟

建立了一个可供复杂下垫面地域使用的非静力的三维细网格边界层模式，就复杂下垫面条件下的边界层结构和湍流特征作了以实例为对照的数值模拟试验，模式采用能量闭合方案，舍弃了静力近似。以实测资料为初台输入，同时还做了一些数值试验，分别获得了采用静力与非静力模式和不同闭合方案对ＰＢＬ模型的结果。     

三维非静力二阶闭合PBL模式的初步研究

采用二阶距湍流闭合方案，建立了一个复杂地形下的三维非静力边界层预报模式。通过该模式，细致了模拟了北京地区的风、温时空变化和湍流场变化。结合地面、探空和气象塔的实测资料，进一步研究了该方案在三维空间上对平均场和湍流场的预报模拟效能。结果表明该模式能较好地进行平均量和湍流量的模拟和预报。     

精细PBL模式及其诊断应用

在已建立的一种三维非静力细网格E-ε湍能闭合的动力学框架基础上,作了一些改进的技术处理和试验,包括:(1)利用GIS提供的地形资料,较精确地计算太阳辐射,进而诊断地面温度;(2)引进位势流概念,处理稳定层结条件下初始内插风场的风向变化;(3)引入动力学调整项(αobs-α).在此基础上,就地理信息系统(GIS)提供的一个60km×48km区域作了边界层结构和湍流特征的数值模拟试验,并与实测作了比较,讨论了精细PBL模式的模拟效果,结果表明,新建的PBL模式能较好地模拟表征出复杂下垫面地域的陡峭地形和不规则海岸线对局地风场和湍流场的动力和热力学作用.     

精细PBL模式及其诊断应用

在已建立的一种三维非静力细网格Ｅ－ε湍能闭合的动力学框架基础上,作了一些改进的技术处理和试验,包括：（１）利用ＧＩＳ提供的地形资料,较精确地计算太阳辐射,进而诊断地面温度;（２）引进位势流概念,处理稳定层结条件下初始内插风场的风向变化;（３）引入动力学调整项Ｇ（αｏｂｓ－α）。在此基础上,就地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）提供的一个 ６０ｋｍ×４８ｋｍ区域作了边界层结构和湍流特征的数值模拟试验,并与实测作了比较,讨论了精细ＰＢＬ模式的模拟效果,结果表明,新建的ＰＢＬ模式能较好地模拟表征出复杂下垫面地域的陡峭地形和不规则海岸线对局地风场和湍流场的动力和热力学作用。     

三维山体过山气流流场特征的数值模拟

采用高阶矩湍流闭合方案，建立了一个细网格、高分辨率、三维非静力ＰＢＬ数值模式，并由其模拟了三维山体条件下的流场结构和湍流场特征。为反映数值模拟结果的可靠性，对中性条件下三维山体流场进行了风洞试验。与数值模拟结果对比分析表明，数值计算与风洞试验结果有较好的一致性；使用该模式模拟山体条件下的流场结构能取得较好的结果；将模拟结果作为随机游动扩散模式的三维风场及湍流场资料输入，为复杂地形条件下大气污染的研     

深凹地形边界层风场与湍流场结构及扩散规律的数值研究

建立了一个模拟小尺度复杂地形边界层平均流场和湍流场结构分布特征的三维非静力细网格高阶矩湍流闭合模式,并将此模式与一个拉格朗日粒子随机游动大气扩散数值模式相联结,以边界层气象模式的输出作为扩散模式的输入,构成了一个大气扩和模拟系统,成功地模拟了某地实际深凹露天矿区和理想凹坑地形两种情况下的平均流场、雷诺应力和湍流通量场,分析了其分布特征,并模拟了矿坑内污染物的散布规律     

海岸边界层模式中闭合方案的模拟分析

本文建立一个三维非静力边界层模式对杭州湾附近复杂地形域区进行了数值模拟。要用常用的能量闭合和一 新的非局地反梯度闭合方案结合实测资料,以验证不同闭合方案模拟实际大气的能力,进一步分析三维边界层模式的效能结果表明,两种闭合方案都能较好的模拟澳陆环流及温度场,而反梯度闭合比能量闭合更能细致、敏感的模拟湍流场随地形的变化,且模拟结果与实测接近。     

三维风场调整和诊断模式的实用研究

建立了一个质量连续性约束的风场调整和诊断模式，对深圳地区复杂下垫面条件下的边界层风场作了数值试验。模式采用变分技术和直接差分方法联合使用的方案。模式以实测资料为初始输入，对该地区的风场作了较细致的模拟分析。结果表明，模式计算性能稳定，调整后的风场能较好地体现出实际大气的流动特性。     

台风数值模拟中边界层方案的敏感性试验——Ⅰ．对台风结构的影响

通过比较不同边界层方案下中尺度数值模式模拟的台风地表特征量以及形势场和风场，表明台风边界层通过摩擦混合和辐射等作用与地表产生水汽、热量和动量的交换，并通过湍流效应和积云的夹卷作用将边界层的影响扩展至整个自由大气。对台风Dan的模拟个例表明。由于边界层过程的差异导致台风尺度大小不同，风场、形势场的水平和垂直分布结构都有所差异。不同边界层方案模拟的台风结构的差异必然导致强度的差异，与此相对应，在不同边界层方案下，Eta方案模拟的台风强度偏大；而Burk—Thompson和Blackadar方案略次之，在没有边界层方案的情况下模拟的强度非常弱，体现了边界层过程对台风发生发展的巨大影响。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...