Local temperature estimation under climate change

Summary A methodology to estimate the space-time distribution of daily mean temperature under climate change is developed and applied to a central Nebraska case study. The approach is based on the analysis of the Markov properties of atmospheric circulation pattern (CP) types, and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 500hPa) CP types and daily mean temperatures. Historical data and general circulation model (GCM) output of daily CP corresponding to 1 × CO₂ and 2 × CO₂ scenarios are considered. The relationship between spatially averaged geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface — within each CP type — and daily mean temperature is described by a nonparametric regression technique. Time series of daily mean temperatures corresponding to each of these cases are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. Under the climate of central Nebraska, the space-time response of daily mean temperature to global climate change is variable. In general, a warmer climate appears to cause about 5°C increase in the winter months, a smaller increase in other months with no change in July and August. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.On leave from the Department of Meteorology, Eötvós Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.With 14 Figures     

A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes

Summary Many synoptic classifications that have been introduced share the problem of a large within-type variability. Therefore, there is still the need for refinement, especially when aiming to downscale climate model outputs. The objective scheme proposed here has been developed to derive circulation pattern classifications that optimally distinguish between different values of regional weather elements. In comparison with methods that similarly take local and large-scale information into consideration (such as classification and regression trees [CART]), computational demand is relatively low and human input is practically unwarranted. Recognition of individual cases is based upon composites of the large-scale conditions of several different meteorological parameters such as geopotential heights, temperatures and relative humidities. For each local weather element a so-called screening discriminant analysis is conducted selecting those large-scale synoptic variables yielding optimal selectivity. The procedure is basically analogous to a stepwise screening regression. At each stage the predictor field minimizing the RMSE between forecasts and observations together with the previously chosen predictor fields is selected. The procedure is terminated either when a maximal number of predictor fields is reached or when the inclusion of another field does not result in a further decrease of the RMSE. Similarity between mean large-scale conditions and the individual cases that are to be assigned is determined by means of a slightly modified version of the widespread Euclidean distance.Using daily data from 51 climate stations located in the Elbe river catchment in the northeastern part of Germany and the western part of the Czech Republic, the attainable reduction of climatological variances was calculated for a variety of weather elements. Results prove the ability of the scheme to effectively discriminate large-scale circulation patterns with respect to local weather parameters, especially temperatures (skill scores of approx. 80%).When solely accurate discrimination is of interest, a fuzzy variant can be utilized producing even better results. It yields the percentage of each circulation type for a specific case, i.e. day. However, in this case physical insights can not be obtained.     

Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections

The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.     

冬季赤道太平洋不同类型海温异常表征指数的再构建

利用1963—2013年Hadley中心月平均海表温度资料,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,根据两类厄尔尼诺事件发生时北半球冬季赤道太平洋地区海温异常的不同空间分布特征,即赤道中太平洋CP型和东太平洋EP型海温异常空间分布,从寻找与之相似的空间型角度出发,设计了一组新的海温异常指数I_(CP)和I_(EP)。与以往ENSO指数相比,新指数组I_(CP)和I_(EP)不仅表示了空间上相互独立的海温异常分布,而且在相同的研究时段内,因时间域上相互独立而能更好地表征和区分两类El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件。据此,采用该新指数组探讨了与中部型和东部型海温异常事件相关的热带太平洋的主要海气耦合特征。结果表明,与传统的东部型El Ni?o事件发生时最大暖海温中心位于赤道东太平洋地区不同,中部型El Ni?o事件,异常增暖中心位于赤道中太平洋。中部型时异常Walker环流的上升支向西偏移,异常降水集中于热带中太平洋,不似东部型时异常限定于赤道东太平洋地区。不论哪类事件,海洋性大陆均可受到影响,即CP或EP型El Ni?o发生时,海洋性大陆区域降水偏少。但比较而言,中部型ENSO对海洋性大陆区域的影响更大。     

Segregation and Interpretation of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide Measurements by Air Mass Origin at the TOR Station Mace Head, Ireland from 1987 to 1995

Three independent methods have been used to sort the ozone, carbonmonoxide, and other radiatively important trace gases measured at Mace Head,Ireland, and thereby distinguish clean air masses transported over the NorthAtlantic from the more polluted air masses which have recently travelledfrom the European continent. Over the period April 1987–June 1995 theNorthern Hemisphere surface ozone baseline concentrations exhibited a meanconcentration of 34.8 ppb, with a small positive trend (+0.19 ppbyr^-1), while the corresponding trend in air originating fromthe polluted European areas was negative (–0.39 ppbyr^-1). Carbon monoxide measurements from March 1990 toDecember 1994 showed negative trends for both the unpolluted (–0.17ppb yr^-1) and polluted data (–13.6 ppbyr^-1). Overall the continent of Europe was shown to be a smallnet sink of 2.6 ppb for all occasions when European air was transported tothe North Atlantic.     

Probabilistic seasonal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on near surface temperature

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a major winter climate mode, describing one-third of the inter-annual variability of the upper-level flow in the Atlantic European mid-latitudes. It provides a statistically well-defined pattern to study the predictability of the European winter climate. In this paper, the predictability of the NAO and the associated surface temperature variations are considered using a dynamical prediction approach. Two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean ensemble forecast systems are used, namely the seasonal forecast system 2 from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the multi-model system developed within the joint European project DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction). The predictability is defined in probabilistic space using the debiased ranked probability skill score with adapted discretization (RPSS_D). The potential predictability of the NAO and its impact are also investigated in a perfect model approach, where each ensemble member is used once as observation. This approach assumes that the climate system is fully represented by the model physics. Using the perfect model approach for the period 1959–2001, it is shown that the mean winter NAO index is potentially predictable with a lead time of 1 month (i.e. from 1st of November). The prediction benefit is rather small (6% skill relative to a reference climatology) but statistically significant. A similar conclusion holds for the near surface temperature variability related to the NAO. Again, the potential benefit is small (5%) but statistically significant. Using the forecast approach, the NAO skill is not statistically significant for the period 1959–2001, while for the period 1987–2001 the skill is surprisingly large (15% relative to a climate prediction). Furthermore, a weak relation is found between the strength of the NAO amplitude and the skill of the NAO. This contrasts with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, where the forecast skill is strongly amplitude dependent. In general, robust results are only achieved if the sensitivity with respect to the sample size (both the ensemble size and length of the period) is correctly taken into account.

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This revised version was published online in May 2005. Some black and white figures were replaced by coloured figures.     

The COST733 circulation type classification software: an example for surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe

In the framework of the COST733 Action ??Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions?? a new circulation type classification software (hereafter, referred to as cost733class software) is developed. The cost733class software contains a variety of (European) classification methods and is flexible towards choice of domain of interest, input variables, time step, number of circulation types, sequencing and (weighted) target variables. This work introduces the capabilities of the cost733class software in which the resulting circulation types (CTs) from various circulation type classifications (CTCs) are applied on observed summer surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe. Firstly, the main characteristics of the CTCs in terms of circulation pattern frequencies are addressed using the baseline COST733 catalogue (cat 2.0), at present the latest product of the new cost733class software. In a second step, the probabilistic Brier skill score is used to quantify the explanatory power of all classifications in terms of the maximum 8 hourly mean ozone concentrations exceeding the 120-??g/m³ threshold; this was based on ozone concentrations from 130 Central European measurement stations. Averaged evaluation results over all stations indicate generally higher performance of CTCs with a higher number of types. Within the subset of methodologies with a similar number of types, the results suggest that the use of CTCs based on optimisation algorithms are performing slightly better than those which are based on other algorithms (predefined thresholds, principal component analysis and leader algorithms). The results are further elaborated by exploring additional capabilities of the cost733class software. Sensitivity experiments are performed using different domain sizes, input variables, seasonally based classifications and multiple-day sequencing. As an illustration, CTCs which are also conditioned towards temperature with various weights are derived and tested similarly. All results exploit a physical interpretation by adapting the environment-to-circulation approach, providing more detailed information on specific synoptic conditions prevailing on days with high surface ozone concentrations. This research does not intend to bring forward a favourite classification methodology or construct a statistical ozone forecasting tool but should be seen as an introduction to the possibilities of the cost733class software. It this respect, the results presented here can provide a basic user support for the cost733class software and the development of a more user- or application-specific CTC approach.     

An objective classification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka

Summary Homogeneous rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka have been devised through multivariate statistical techniques. The nature of previous subjective classifications are reviewed and the need for an objective classification is stressed. Each of the major classifications of rainfall regimes, micro, meso and macro, throw new light on our understanding of the climates of Sri Lanka. New boundaries between dry/wet and dry/arid zones have emerged and are compared with previous examples. Three rainfall dominance regimes are also identified. Finally a brief account of the micro scale rainfall regimes is given.With 5 Figures     

The global energy cycle of stationary and transient atmospheric waves: Results from ECMWF analyses

Summary The role of stationary (monthly mean) and transient (departure from monthly mean) waves within the atmospheric energy cycle is examined using global analyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the period 1980–1987. Only January and July averages are considered.It is confirmed that planetary stationary waves are basically baroclinic. Their contribution to the globally averaged energy cycle of the atmosphere is comparable to that of the transient waves. In January they contribute about 40% to the baroclinic conversion (CA) from zonal mean to eddy available potential energy. Local values for the northern hemisphere even show a predominant role of the stationary wave conversions over those originating from transient waves. Part of the available potential energy of stationary waves (A _SE) is converted to kinetic energy by warm air rising and cold air sinking. Nonlinear energy conversion, which can be interpreted as destruction of stationary temperature waves by transients, is the second sink forA _SE. The order of magnitude of these two processes is similar.Barotropic nonlinear conversions, though negligible in the global average, reveal large conversion rates between the mean positions of the polar and the subtropical jets. Their orientation is suggestive of a tendency to increase stationary wave kinetic energyK _SE at its local minimum between the jets at the expense of the synoptic scale transients.While all terms of the energy cycle related to stationary waves reveal a predominance of the planetary scale (zonal wave numbers 1–3) transient waves are governed by synoptic scale waves (zonal wave numbers 4–9) only with respect to the baroclinic and barotropic conversions: a significant amount of transient wave energy (50% for the global average ofA _TE) is due to planetary scale waves.With 15 Figures     

The spatial structure of turbulence at production wavenumbers using orthonormal wavelets

Orthonormal wavelet expansions are applied to surface-layer measurements of vertical wind speed under various atmospheric, stability conditions. The orthonormal wavelet transform allows for the unfolding of these measurements into space and scale simultaneously to reveal the large intermittent behavior in space for the turbulent production wavenumbers. Both Fourier and wavelet power spectra indicated the existence of a –1 power law for the vertical velocity measurements at the production wavenumbers. The –1 power law in the turbulent production range was derived from surface-layer similarity theory. A dimensionless skewness, structure function is applied to the wavelet decomposed vertical velocity field to trace the destruction of the shear-or buoyancy-induced anisotropy under various stability conditions. The structure skewness function revealed shear- or buoyancy-induced eddy asymmetry dependence on stability at each scale within the –1 power-law wavenumber range with more isotropy during propagation from smaller to larger wavenumbers. The asymmetry of these events at the turbulent production wavenumbers appeared very localized in space, as well as in scale, and could be described with a simple eddy-overturning model. It is demonstrated that the wavelet transform is suitable for such analysis.     

Multi-decadal thermohaline variability in an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model

A century scale integration of a near-global atmosphere–ocean model is used to study the multi-decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The differences between the coupled and two supplementary ocean-only experiments suggest that a significant component of this variability is controlled by either a collective behavior of the ocean and the atmosphere, particularly in the form of air-sea heat exchange, or sub-monthly random noise present in the coupled system. Possible physical mechanisms giving rise to the mode of this THC variability are discussed. The SST anomaly associated with the THC variability resembles an interdecadal SST pattern extracted from observational data, as well as a pattern associated with the 50–60 year THC variability in the GFDL coupled model. In each case, a warming throughout the subpolar North Atlantic but concentrated along the Gulf Stream and its extension is indicated when the THC is strong. Concomitantly, surface air temperature has positive anomalies over the warmer ocean, with the strongest signal located downwind of the warmest SST anomalies and intruding into the western Eurasian Continent. In addition to the thermal response, there are also changes in the atmospheric flow pattern. More specifically, an anomalous northerly wind develops over the Labrador Sea when the THC is stronger than normal, suggesting a local primacy of the atmospheric forcing in the thermohaline perturbation structure.     

A new soil-moisture based classification of raindays and drydays and its application to Sierra Leone

Summary The paper proposes a new classification of raindays and drydays incorporating soil moisture status. This is of particular value for agricultural purposes and also allows the adoption of a low rainfall threshold to distinguish between raindays and drydays. This is important since, as indicated in the paper, small falls may be important and yet in the tropics, for agricultural purposes, a high threshold is often adopted to take account of the high evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Soil moisture is expressed as a percentage of available soil moisture storage capacity (SMSC) and conditions are described as deficit, limiting, adequate, and surplus, if soil moisture levels are 0–29%, 30–59%, 60–100% and > 100% of SMSC respectively. Combining this with rainday and dryday occurrence, three types of drydays and four types of raindays are identified. This rain-soil moisture index classification more nearly approaches a universal definition suitable for different tropical regions than previous ones. Application of the concept is illustrated with data from Sierra Leone, using a simple water balance model to estimate soil moisture.With 7 Figures     

Estimates of the Chemical Budget for Ozone at Waliguan Observatory

Waliguan Observatory (WO) is an in-land Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) baseline station on the Tibetan plateau. In addition to the routine GAW measurement program at WO, measurements of trace gases, especially ozone precursors, were made for some periods from 1994 to 1996. The ozone chemical budget at WO was estimated using a box model constrained by these measured trace gas concentrations and meteorological variables. Air masses at WO are usually affected by the boundary layer (BL) in the daytime associated with an upslope flow, while it is affected by the free troposphere (FT) at night associated with a downslope flow. An anti-relationship between ozone and water vapor concentrations at WO is found by investigating the average diurnal cycle pattern of ozone and water vapor under clear sky conditions. This relationship implies that air masses at WO have both the FT and BL characteristics. Model simulations were carried out for clear sky conditions in January and July of 1996, respectively. The chemical characteristics of mixed air masses (MC) and of free tropospheric air masses (FT) at WO were investigated. The effects of the variation in NO_x and water vapor concentrations on the chemical budget of ozone at WO were evaluated for the considered periods of time. It was shown that ozone was net produced in January and net destroyed in July for both FT and MC conditions at WO. The estimated net ozone production rate at WO was –0.1 to 0.4 ppbv day^–1 in FT air of January, 0.0 to 1.0 ppbv day^–1 in MC air of January, –4.9 to –0.2 ppbv day^–1 in FT air of July, and –5.1 to 2.1 ppbv day^–1 in MC air of July.     

One-Equation Turbulence Modelling for Atmospheric and Engineering Applications

A new algebraic turbulent length scale model is developed, based on previous one-equation turbulence modelling experience in atmospheric flow and dispersion calculations. The model is applied to the neutral Ekman layer, as well as to fully-developed pipe and channel flows. For the pipe and channel flows examined the present model results can be considered as nearly equivalent to the results obtained using the standard k– model. For the neutral Ekman layer, the model predicts satisfactorily the near-neutral Cabauw friction velocities and a dependence of the drag coefficient versus Rossby number very close to that derived from published (G. N. Coleman) direct numerical simulations. The model underestimates the Cabauw cross-isobaric angles, but to a less degree than the cross-isobar angle versus Rossby dependence derived from the Coleman simulation. Finally, for the Cabauw data, with a geostrophic wind magnitude of 10 ms^–1, the model predicts an eddy diffusivity distribution in good agreement with semi-empirical distributions used in current operational practice.     

History of the Long Series of Daily Air Temperature in Padova (1725–1998)

The history of the origin of the study of meteorology in Padova and its connection to the major developments of this science in Italy and the international context are presented. Special topics are: the scientific legacy of Galileo Galilei and the Accademia del Cimento,the birth of the first meteorological networks, i.e., Ferdinand II and Leopold de' Medici who created the Rete Medicea, J. Jurin and the network of the RoyalSociety, London, L. Cotte and the Société Royale de Médicine, Paris, J. J. Hemmerand the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, Mannheim. After outliningthe cultural background that favoured the development of meteorology, emphasis is given to the plurisecular time series of meteorological observations, taken in Padova since 1725, in its national and international context. This long series includes barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and speed; state of the sky and occurrence of meteorological events and precipitation. Special reference is made to indoor and outdoor temperature observations. Solar radiation falling on each exposure has been modelled in order to know when data were fully reliable and when they were less so. A vertical profile of air temperature has allowed corrections of the change of instrument level, when necessary. In terms of homogeneity, the series can be divided into several periods, during which instruments and operational methods, position, general criteria were unchanged: origins in homes of the first observers (1725–1767); the First Period at the Specola(1768–1812); the Second Period at the Specola (1813–1864); the Third and Fourth Periodsat the Specola (1865–1937); the Last Measurements at theSpecola (1938–1962); the Giovanni Magrini Observatoryof the Water Magistrate (1920–today); the Gino Allegri Airport(1926–1990), the Botanical Gardens (1980–today), the CNR (1984–1986; 1993–today). The latestperiod with the birth of new weather stations, is the most affected byanthropic effect. The simultaneous presence of an urban and a rural weather station pointed out local effects which dominate the urban heat island.     

Evaluation of surface wind and flux analysis techniques using conventional data in marine cyclones

Data from seven storms from the Storm Transfer and Response Experiment in November 1980 have been used to evaluate the relative accuracy of surface wind and flux fields based on two analysis procedures. Two essentially independent techniques were used; objective analysis which is based on composite data taken at several synoptic intervals to enhance the number of observations and processing carefully hand-analyzed (subjective) surface pressure analyses into wind and flux fields using a planetary boundary layer (PBL) similarity model. Scale and accuracy limits imposed by instrument accuracy, sampling error, and gridding and analysis procedures are evaluated for each of these techniques by comparison with independent data and with each other.Wind field differences between the objective composite analysis and the PBL model predictions are found to be comparable to the measurement-related uncertainty in the observations. Unresolved variability in the 10–100 km scale of the dynamic and thermodynamic variables produces the main source of error in both the objective and model wind fields. Additional wind field differences are contributed by PBL and gradient wind assumptions used in the PBL model. Wind differences between either of the two analyses and individual observations are about ±3 m s⁻¹ and ±30° in the mean, and can be greater than ±5 m s⁻¹ and ±50° for small regions. Comparable differences are found between the two wind field analyses.The wind and thermodynamic field differences combine to produce substantial differences in the derived fields. Mean differences of ±19W m⁻² and ±41 W m⁻² for the fluxes of sensible and latent heat, respectively, represent differences of about 50% of the mean fluxes, with local differences as much as double or triple the magnitude of these means. Fronts are equally well represented by the two analyses, but values of divergence and curl of surface stress may differ by a factor of 2 or more in regions of fronts. These local differences in the derived fields result primarily from the large wind field differences in these inadequately resolved regions.     

Numerical analysis of flux footprints for different landscapes

Summary A model for the canopy – planetary boundary layer flow and scalar transport based on E- closure was applied to estimate footprint for CO₂ fluxes over different inhomogeneous landscapes. Hypothetical heterogeneous vegetation patterns – forest with clear-cuts as well as hypothetical heterogeneous relief – a bell-shaped valley and a ridge covered by forest were considered. The distortions of airflow caused by these heterogeneities are shown – the upwind deceleration of the flow at the ridge foot and above valley, acceleration at the crest and the flow separation with the reversed flow pattern at lee slopes of ridge and valley. The disturbances induce changes in scalar flux fields within the atmospheric surface layer comparing to fluxes for homogeneous conditions: at a fixed height the fluxes vary as a function of distance to disturbance. Correspondingly, the flux footprint estimated from model data depends on the location of the point of interest (flux measurement point) and may significantly deviate from that for a flat terrain. It is shown that proposed method could be used for the choice of optimal sensor position for flux measurements over complex terrain as well as for the interpretation of data for existing measurement sites. To illustrate the latter the method was applied for experimental site in Solling, Germany, taking into account the complex topography and vegetation heterogeneities. Results show that in certain situations (summer, neutral stratification, south or north wind) and for a certain sensor location the assumptions of idealized air flow structure could be used for measurement interpretation at this site, though in general, extreme caution should be applied when analytical footprint models are used in the interpretation of flux measurements over complex sites.     

Small-particle concentration fluctuations at a coastal site

Aerosol size spectra (d=10 nm–10 μm) were measured with an electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) at Mace Head on the west coast of Ireland. Several small aerosol particle (diameter 10–32 nm) concentration bursts were observed during the measurement period. Relationships between the events, air mass trajectories, tide height, and meteorological parameters are examined. Series of bursts were observed when a spectral transformation due to subsequent particle growth from 10 to 56–100 nm can be identified in an Eulerian experiment. Particle growth rates of between 1 and 3 nm/h were determined. These bursts appear in cold and comparatively clean arctic or polar air masses with temperature and relative humidity fluctuations, and do not correlate with low tide in some cases. These episodes, similar to those frequently found in the continental boundary layer, are thought to occur over a wide area and, for clear detection, require stable airflow for a few days. Elevated small-particle concentration events are more common during low tide or shortly after, and are typically associated with low wind speeds. Here, the increased shore exposure during low tide is thought to influence the nucleation and the subsequent growth of these aerosol particles. The occurrences of the bursts are found to depend on local wind direction. The highest d=10–32 nm particle concentrations appeared for wind sectors furthest from the tidal regions when the wind direction was 150–160°(south-easterly). Most of the events occurred during daytime when solar irradiation is most intense.     

The extreme value distribution of 5-min rainfall data at Belgrade

Summary For practical applications both the parent distribution of rainfall intensities and the distribution of their annual maxima are of interest. The relationship between these two distributions cannot be obtained from classical extreme value theory because of seasonal variation and serial correlation in the data. Mathematical results for the distribution of maxima in m-dependent sequences are presented to illustrate the effect of local dependence on the extreme value distribution. The average number of exceedances in a cluster is an important parameter in the relationship between the parent and the extreme value distribution. For 5-min rainfall data from Belgrade, quantiles of the annual maxima are overestimated by about 10 mm h^–1 if the effect of serial correlation is ignored. This bias can easily be removed by taking the local clustering of large rainfall intensities in a rainy spell into account.With 4 Figures     

Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071–2100)

We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100 with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2 than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns. In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall) are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer, when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response to local topographical and coastline features.