太平洋区域季内振荡的一种负反馈过程

利用1981—2002年美国国家气象中心（National Meteorological Center,NMC）逐日海表温度（sea surface temperature,SST）、10 m高处风场（V）及逐月混合层厚度（mixed layer depth,mld）资料,研究了太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的气候及异常特征,重点探讨了北太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。研究发现,太平洋区域海表温度存在3个季内振荡强度气候高值区,即热带东太平洋（终年存在）、西北太平洋（北半球春、夏、秋存在）、西南太平洋（南半球夏季前后存在）,它们出现在气候混合层厚度最小的区域和季节。海表温度季内振荡强度年际异常与混合层厚度年际异常存在显著负相关,在物理上,这种关系比它与海表温度异常的关系更直接。北太平洋区域5—9月地面风场与海表温度季节内振荡的基本耦合模态揭示出以漂流和感热输送为动力的一个负反馈过程,它存在于薄混合层海区,这是该海区强海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。     

Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the global tropics is documented here using a 7-year suite (1998–2004) of satellite measurements. A composite scenario was made of 28 selected events with reference to the oscillation in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), where the oscillation is most regular and its intensity is indicative of the strength of the subsequent northward propagation. The average oscillation period is about 32 days, and this quasi-monthly oscillation (QMO) is primarily confined to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Topics that were investigated are the partition of convective versus stratiform clouds, the vertical structure of precipitation rates, and the evolution of cloud types during the initial organization and the development of intraseasonal convective anomalies in the central Indian Ocean. During the initiation of the convective anomalies, the stratiform and convective rains have comparable rates; the prevailing cloud type experiences a trimodal evolution from shallow to deep convection, and finally to anvil and extended stratiform clouds. A major northwest/southeast-slanted rainband forms as the equatorial rainfall anomalies reach Sumatra, and the rainband subsequently propagates northeastward into the west Pacific Ocean. The enhanced precipitation in the west Pacific then rapidly traverses the Pacific along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, meanwhile migrating northward to the Philippine Sea. A seesaw teleconnection in rainfall anomalies is found between the southern Bay of Bengal (5–15°N, 80–100°E) and the eastern Pacific (5–15°N, 85–105°W). Local sea-surface temperature (SST)-rainfall anomalies display a negative simultaneous correlation in the off-equatorial regions but a zero correlation (quadrature phase relationship) near the equator. We propose that atmosphere–ocean interaction and the vertical monsoon easterly shear are important contributors to the northeastward propagation component of the intraseasonal rainband. The observed evidence presented here provides critical information for validating the numerical models, and it supports the self-induction mechanism theory for maintenance of the boreal summer ISO.     

北半球副热带—中纬度太平洋大气季节内扰动的纬向传播与东亚夏季旱涝

用时空滤波和Morlet小波方法,分析了1958—2000年夏季东亚(20°—45°N,110°—135°E)不同纬带(由南到北分为4个区域)的降水分别与太平洋同一纬带上大气30—60 d振荡(ISO)沿纬圈传播的关系及其成因机制。发现太平洋上经向风ISO向西传播的强或弱,是东亚夏季风区降水偏多或偏少的必要条件。对逐年夏季的分析表明,无论当年东亚夏季风强与否,在所划分的几个东亚季风区所有涝的年份里,太平洋同一纬带上大气ISO向西传播都明显较强,而在这些区域绝大多数旱的年份里,相应的ISO向西传播明显较弱。进一步分析发现,经向风ISO的纬向传播对应着大气经向型环流系统的移动,向西传影响东亚夏季风区降水的ISO有来自低纬中东太平洋东风流中的低频气旋(如副热带东风带中ISO的演变);也有来自中高纬度阿拉斯加湾及鄂霍次克海一带低频低压(如洋中槽)和高压(如阻塞高压和东北太平洋高压)的向南向西频散。因此东亚夏季旱涝不但与热带季风有关,而且与中东太平洋副热带东风系统中ISO的向西传播、中高纬度长波调整时低频扰动向西南经北太平洋副热带的传播密切相关。     

Air–sea interaction over ocean fronts and eddies

Air–sea interaction at ocean fronts and eddies exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed, and heat fluxes out of the ocean, indicating that the ocean is forcing the atmosphere. This contrasts with larger scale climate modes where the negative correlations suggest that the atmosphere is driving the system. This paper examines the physical processes that lie behind the interaction of sharp SST gradients and the overlying marine atmospheric boundary layer and deeper atmosphere, using high resolution satellite data, field data and numerical models. The importance of different physical mechanisms of atmospheric response to SST gradients, such as the effect of surface stability variations on momentum transfer, pressure gradients, secondary circulations and cloud cover will be assessed. The atmospheric response is known to create small-scale wind stress curl and divergence anomalies, and a discussion of the feedback of these features onto the ocean will also be presented. These processes will be compared and contrasted for different regions such as the Equatorial Front in the Eastern Pacific, and oceanic fronts in mid-latitudes such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Agulhas Return Current.     

An intimate coupling of ocean–atmospheric interaction over the extratropical North Atlantic and Pacific

The inter-basin teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interaction is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, an idealized oceanic temperature anomaly is initiated over the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream extension region to track the coupled evolution of ocean and atmosphere interaction, respectively. The experiments explicitly demonstrate that both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions are intimately coupled through an inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection. This fast inter-basin communication can transmit oceanic variability between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific through local ocean-to-atmosphere feedbacks. The leading mode of the extratropical atmospheric internal variability plays a dominant role in shaping the hemispheric-scale response forced by oceanic variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Modeling results also suggest that a century (two centuries) long observations are necessary for the detection of Pacific response to Atlantic forcings (Atlantic response to Pacific forcing).     

Net air�Csea surface heat flux during 1984�C2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10��N�C50��N): annual mean climatology and trend

Using the Objectively Analyzed air?Csea Fluxes dataset (and also the National Oceanography Centre Southampton Flux Dataset v2.0), we examined both the annual mean climatology and trend of net air?Csea surface heat flux (Q _net) for 1984?C2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10°N?C50°N). The annual mean Q _net climatology shows that oceans obtain the positive Q _net over much of the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. Exceptions are the regions of western boundary currents (WBCs) including the Kuroshio and its extension off Japan and the Gulf Stream off the USA and its extension, where oceans release lots of heat into the atmosphere, mainly ascribed to the large surface turbulent heat loss. The statistically significant negative Q _net trends occurred in the WBCs, while the statistically significant positive Q _net trends appeared in the central basins of Northern Subtropical Oceans (CNSOs) including the central basin of Northern Subtropical Pacific and the central basin of Northern Subtropical Atlantic. These indentified Q _net trends, which are independent of both El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki but closely related to global warming forcing, are predominately due to the statistically significant surface latent heat (LH) trends. Over the WBCs, the positive LH trends are mainly induced by the sea surface temperature increasing, indicating the ocean forcing upon overlying atmosphere. In contrast, over the CNSOs, the negative LH trends are mainly caused by the near-surface air specific humidity increasing, indicative of an oceanic response to overlying atmospheric forcing.     

一个压力坐标海洋环流模式(PCOM1.0)的基本模拟性能评估

参照Griffies et al.(2009)提出的海洋—海冰耦合模式参考试验(Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments,COREs),设计了一个800年积分的数值试验,对一个质量严格守恒的压力坐标海洋环流模式(Pressure Coordinate Ocean Model,PCOM1.0)的基本模拟性能进行了评估,并与观测资料和再分析资料进行了对比。结果表明,PCOM1.0模拟的温盐场和基本流场与COREs模式的模拟水平基本接近。其中,模拟的大西洋经向翻转流在45°N附近达到18 Sv(1 Sv=106 m3 s-1),与观测估计值接近;对海表面温度的模拟误差主要集中在北太平洋黑潮区和北大西洋湾流区等中高纬度急流区;模拟的热带太平洋温跃层过于深厚;模拟的经德雷克海峡的体积输送达130 Sv,比大部分COREs模式及再分析资料都更接近于观测估计值。     

Impacts of Typhoons on Kuroshio Large Meander: Observation Evidences

The formation of the Kuroshio large meander in summer 2004 was investigated by using the cruise data,Argo profiles data,and satellite remote sensing data.The authors validated the point that cyclonic eddies contrib-uted to the large meander.Besides,.the impacts of ty-phoons on Kuroshio meanders were also studied.From 29 July to 4 August,the typhoons stirred the ocean and up-welled the deep water,which enhanced the existed cyc-lonic eddy,and immediately made a drastic meander of the Kuroshio.Moreover,the unexpected typhoons in June 2004 also contributed to the initial meander at the Tokara Strait.The result suggests an alternative meander mecha-nism of the Kuroshio path via the typhoon-eddy-Kuroshio interactions.It is argued that typhoons accompanied with cyclonic eddies,might play crucial roles in meanders of the Kuroshio.This will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the western boundary flows,like the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream,and will be useful in eddy-resolution models.     

Impacts of 30-60-Day Oscillations over the Subtropical Pacific on the East Asian Summer Rainfall

The relationships between the precipitation over East Asia (20°-45°N,110°-135°E) and the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Pacific during the boreal summer are studied in the paper.The daily wind and height fields of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the 24-h precipitation data of 687 stations in China during 1958-2000,and the pentad precipitation of CMAP/NOAA from 1979 to 2002 are all analyzed by the space-time filter method.The analysis results,from every drought and flood summer in four different regions of East Asia respectively during 1958-2000,have shown that the flood (drought) in the East Asian summer monsoon region is absolutely companied with the strongly (weakly) westward propagations of ISO from the central-east Pacific,and depends little on the intensity changes of the East Asian summer monsoon. And the westward ISO is usually the low-frequency cyclones and anticyclones from the Bay of Alaska in northeastern Pacific and the Okhotsk in the northwestern Pacific of mid-high latitudes,and the ISO evolving in subtropical easterlies.In mid-high latitudes the phenomena are related to the westward propagating mid- ocean trough and the retreat of blocking high.Therefore the westward propagating ISO from the central-east Pacific to East Asia is indispensable for more rainfall occurring in East Asia in summer,which results from the long-wave adjustment process in the mid-high latitudes and ISO evolving in tropical easterlies.     

A coupled atmosphere‐ocean model for transient climate change studies

Abstract

A new coupled atmosphere‐ocean model has been developed for climate predictions at decade to century scales. The atmospheric model is similar to that of Hansen et al. (1983) except that the atmospheric dynamic equations for mass and momentum are solved using Arakawa and Lamb's (1977) C grid scheme and the advection of potential enthalpy and water vapour uses the linear upstream scheme (Russell and Lerner, 1981). The new global ocean model conserves mass, allows for divergent flow, has a free surface and uses the linear upstream scheme for the advection of potential enthalpy and salt. Both models run at 4° × 5° resolution, with 9 vertical layers for the atmosphere and 13 layers for the ocean. Twelve straits are included, allowing for subgrid‐scale water flow. Runoff from land is routed into appropriate ocean basins. Atmospheric and oceanic surface fluxes are of opposite sign and are applied synchronously. Flux adjustments are not used. Except for partial strength alternating binomial filters (Shapiro, 1970), which are applied to the momentum components in the atmosphere and oceans, there is no explicit horizontal diffusion.

A 120‐year simulation of the coupled model starting from the oceanic initial conditions of Levitus (1982) is discussed. The model dynamics stabilize after several decades. The maximum northward ocean heat flux is 1.4 × 10¹⁵ W at 16°N. The model appears to maintain the vertical gradients characterizing the separation between the upper and deep ocean spheres. Inadequacies in the coupled model simulation lead to decreasing temperature and salinity in the high latitude North Atlantic and to a poor simulation of the northern North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The mass transport of the Gulf Stream is about half of observed values, while the transports of the Kuroshio and Antarctic Circumpolar Currents are similar to observations. Additional deficiencies include a climate drift in the surface air temperature of 0.006°C year^‐1 due to a radiation imbalance of 7.4 Wm^‐2 at the top of the atmosphere and too warm temperatures in the eastern portions of tropical oceans. The coupled model should be useful for delineating modelling capabilities without the use of flux adjustments and should serve as a benchmark for future model improvements.     

CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SEA TEMPERATURE OF WARM POOL AND RELATIONSHIP WITH SST OF ITS ADJACENT REGIONS*

In this paper,climatic features of sea temperature of western Pacific warm pool and the relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) of its adjacent regions are analyzed based on the observed sea temperature on vertical cross section along 137°E in western Pacific,the monthly mean SST of Xisha Station in South China Sea and the global monthly mean SST with resolution of 1°×1° (U.K./GISST2.2).The results indicate that (1) in a sense of correlation.SST of western Pacific warm pool can represent its sea subsurface temperature from surface to 200 m-depth level in winter,and it can only represent sea temperature from surface to 70 m depth in summer.The sea subsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may be more suitable for representing thermal regime of western Pacific warm pool.The sea subsurface temperature of warm pool has a characteristic of quasi-biennial oscillation.(2)Warm pool and Kuroshio current are subject to different ocean current systems (3)Furthermore,the relationship between SST of Xisha Station and SST of warm pool has a characteristic of negative correlation in winter and positive correlation in summer,and a better lag negative correlation of SST of Xisha Station with sea subsurface temperature of warm pool exists.(4)Additionally,oscillation structure of sea temperature like "a seesaw" exists in between warm pool and Regions Nino3 and Nino4.January (June) maximum (minimum) sea subsurface temperature anomaly of warm pool may serve as a strong signal that indicates maturity phase (development phase) of La Nina (El Nino) event,it also acts as a strong signal which reveals variations of SST of Regions Nino3 and Nino4.     

An analysis of extreme intraseasonal rainfall events during January–March 2010 over eastern China

The precipitation over eastern China during January–March 2010 exhibited a marked intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and a dominant period of 10-60 days. There were two active intraseasonal rainfall periods. The physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of the two rainfall events were investigated using ERA-interim data. In the first ISO event, anomalous ascending motion was triggered by vertically integrated (1000–300 hPa) warm temperature advection. In addition to southerly anomalies on the intraseasonal (10–60-day) timescale, synoptic-scale southeasterly winds helped advect warm air from the South China Sea and western Pacific into the rainfall region. In the second ISO event, anomalous convection was triggered by a convectively unstable stratification, which was caused primarily by anomalous moisture advection in the lower troposphere (1000–850 hPa) from the Bay of Bengal and the Indo-China Peninsula. Both the intraseasonal and the synoptic winds contributed to the anomalous moisture advection. Therefore, the winter intraseasonal rainfall events over East Asia in winter could be affected not only by intraseasonal activities but also by higher frequency disturbances.     

The Gulf Stream pathway and the impacts of the eddy-driven abyssal circulation and the Deep Western Boundary Current

A hydrodynamic model of the subtropical Atlantic basin and the Intra-Americas Sea (9–47°N) is used to investigate the dynamics of Gulf Stream separation from the western boundary at Cape Hatteras and its mean pathway to the Grand Banks. The model has five isopycnal Lagrangian layers in the vertical and allows realistic boundary geometry, bathymetry, wind forcing, and a meridional overturning circulation (MOC), the latter specified via ports in the northern and southern boundaries. The northward upper ocean branch of the MOC (14 Sv) was always included but the southward Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) was excluded in some simulations, allowing investigation of the impacts of the DWBC and the eddy-driven mean abyssal circulation on Gulf Stream separation from the western boundary. The result is resolution dependent with the DWBC playing a crucial role in Gulf Stream separation at 1/16° resolution but with the eddy-driven abyssal circulation alone sufficient to obtain accurate separation at 1/32° resolution and a realistic pathway from Cape Hatteras to the Grand Banks with minimal DWBC impact except southeast of the Grand Banks. The separation from the western boundary is particularly sensitive to the strength of the eddy-driven abyssal circulation. Farther to the east, between 68°W and the Grand Banks, all of the 1/16° and 1/32° simulations with realistic topography (with or without a DWBC) gave similar generally realistic mean pathways with clear impacts of the topographically constrained eddy-driven abyssal circulation versus very unrealistic Gulf Stream pathways between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks from otherwise identical simulations run with a flat bottom, in reduced-gravity mode, or with 1/8° resolution and realistic topography. The model is realistic enough to allow detailed model-data comparisons and a detailed investigation of Gulf Stream dynamics. The corresponding linear solution with a Sverdrup interior and Munk viscous western boundary layers, including one from the northward branch of the MOC, yielded two unrealistic Gulf Stream pathways, a broad eastward pathway centered at the latitude of Cape Hatteras and a second wind plus MOC-driven pathway hugging the western boundary to the north. Thus, a high resolution model capable of simulating an inertial jet is required to obtain a single nonlinear Gulf Stream pathway as it separates from the coast. None of the simulations were sufficiently inertial to overcome the linear solution need for a boundary current north of Cape Hatteras without assistance from pathway advection by the abyssal circulation, even though the core speeds of the simulated currents were consistent with observations near separation. In the 1/16° simulation with no DWBC and a 1/32° simulation with high bottom friction and no DWBC the model Gulf Stream overshot the observed separation latitude. With abyssal current assistance the simulated (and the observed) mean Gulf Stream pathway between separation from the western boundary and ∼70°W agreed closely with a constant absolute vorticity (CAV) trajectory influenced by the angle of the coastline prior to separation. The key abyssal current crosses under the Gulf Stream at 68.5–69°W and advects the Gulf Stream pathway southward to the terminus of an escarpment in the continental slope. There the abyssal current crosses to deeper depths to conserve potential vorticity while passing under the downward-sloping thermocline of the stream and then immediately retroflects eastward onto the abyssal plain, preventing further southward pathway advection. Thus specific topographic features and feedback from the impact of the Gulf Stream on the abyssal current pathway determined the latitude of the stream at 68.5–69°W, a latitude verified by observations. The associated abyssal current was also verified by observations.     

A coupled climate model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum,Part 2: approach to equilibrium

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a coupled climate model. The simulated climate undergoes a rapid adjustment during the first several decades after imposition of LGM boundary conditions, as described in Part 1, and then evolves toward equilibrium over 900 model years. The climate simulated by the coupled model at this period is compared with observationally-based LGM reconstructions and with LGM results obtained with an atmosphere-mixed layer (slab) ocean version of the model in order to investigate the role of ocean dynamics in the LGM climate. Global mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) decrease by about 10 °C and 5.6 °C in the coupled model which includes ocean dynamics, compared to decreases of 6.3 and 3.8 °C in slab ocean case. The coupled model simulates a cooling of about 6.5 °C over the tropics, which is larger than that of the CLIMAP reconstruction (1.7 °C) and larger than that of the slab ocean simulation (3.3 °C), but which is in reasonable agreement with some recent proxy estimates. The ocean dynamics of the coupled model captures features found in the CLIMAP reconstructions such as a relative maximum of ocean cooling over the tropical Pacific associated with a mean La Niña-like response and lead to a more realistic SST pattern than in the slab model case. The reduction in global mean precipitation simulated in the coupled model is larger (15%) than that simulated with the slab ocean model (~10%) in conjunction with the enhanced cooling. Some regions, such as the USA and the Mediterranean region, experience increased precipitation in accord with proxy paleoclimate evidence. The overall much drier climate over the ocean leads to higher sea surface salinity (SSS) in most ocean basins except for the North Atlantic where SSS is considerably lower due to an increase in the supply of fresh water from the Mississippi and Amazon rivers and presumably a decrease in salt transport by the weakened North Atlantic overturning circulation. The North Atlantic overturning stream function weakens to less than half of the control run value. The overturning is limited to a shallower depth (less than 1000 m) and its outflow is confined to the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Ocean, convection is much stronger than in the control run leading to a stronger overturning stream function associated with enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation. As a result, Southern Ocean water masses fill the entire deep ocean. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage increases by about 25%. The ACC transport, despite weaker zonal winds, is enhanced due to changes in bottom pressure torque. The weakening of the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic and the accompanying 30% decrease in the poleward ocean heat transport contrasts with the strengthening of the overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean and a 40% increase in heat transport. As a result, sea ice coverage and thickness are affected in opposite senses in the two hemispheres. The LGM climate simulated by the coupled model is in reasonable agreement with paleoclimate proxy evidence. The dynamical response of the ocean in the coupled model plays an important role in determining the simulated, and undoubtedly, the actual, LGM climate.     

MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal climate variability and has significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing prediction of the MJO using state of the art observational data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving global intraseasonal climate prediction. MJO prediction is assessed in the NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts initialized daily for 1999–2010. The analysis focuses on MJO indices taken as the principal components of the two leading EOFs of combined 15°S–15°N average of 200-hPa zonal wind, 850-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The CFSv2 has useful MJO prediction skill out to 20 days at which the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) drops to 0.5 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) increases to the level of the prediction with climatology. The prediction skill also shows a seasonal variation with the lowest ACC during the boreal summer and highest ACC during boreal winter. The prediction skills are evaluated according to the target as well as initial phases. Within the lead time of 10 days the ACC is generally greater than 0.8 and RMSE is less than 1 for all initial and target phases. At longer lead time, the model shows lower skills for predicting enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and from the eastern Pacific to western Indian Ocean. The prediction skills are relatively higher for target phases when enhanced convection is in the central Indian Ocean and the central Pacific. While the MJO prediction skills are improved in CFSv2 compared to its previous version, systematic errors still exist in the CFSv2 in the maintenance and propagation of the MJO including (1) the MJO amplitude in the CFSv2 drops dramatically at the beginning of the prediction and remains weaker than the observed during the target period and (2) the propagation in the CFSv2 is too slow. Reducing these errors will be necessary for further improvement of the MJO prediction.     

Ocean temperature and salinity components of the Madden–Julian oscillation observed by Argo floats

New diagnostics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) cycle in ocean temperature and, for the first time, salinity are presented. The MJO composites are based on 4 years of gridded Argo float data from 2003 to 2006, and extend from the surface to 1,400 m depth in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The MJO surface salinity anomalies are consistent with precipitation minus evaporation fluxes in the Indian Ocean, and with anomalous zonal advection in the Pacific. The Argo sea surface temperature and thermocline depth anomalies are consistent with previous studies using other data sets. The near-surface density changes due to salinity are comparable to, and partially offset, those due to temperature, emphasising the importance of including salinity as well as temperature changes in mixed-layer modelling of tropical intraseasonal processes. The MJO-forced equatorial Kelvin wave that propagates along the thermocline in the Pacific extends down into the deep ocean, to at least 1,400 m. Coherent, statistically significant, MJO temperature and salinity anomalies are also present in the deep Indian Ocean.     

印度洋—西太平洋对流涛动的季节内特征

本文利用30~60天带通滤波资料, 考察了不同季节印度洋—西太平洋区域对流活动季节内尺度变率的主要模态, 发现在不同季节赤道东印度洋(5°S~10°N, 70°E~100°E)和西北太平洋(5°N~20°N, 110°E~160°E)对流活动均存在反相变化的关系, 将之称为季节内尺度的印度洋—西太平洋对流涛动(Indo-West Pacific Convection Oscillation), 简称IPCO。对IPCO两极子区域对流活动进行超前滞后相关分析, 发现IPCO事件形成—发展—消亡的生命周期是由对流活动季节内振荡及其传播造成的。对流扰动首先在赤道中西印度洋形成, 随后逐渐向东发展变强, 在其继续变强的过程中将分两支传播:一支由赤道印度洋向北传播, 至印度半岛南部后逐渐减弱消失;另一支沿赤道继续东传, 在海洋大陆受到抑制, 快速越过海洋大陆到达赤道西太平洋后又开始发展变强, 随后北传至西北太平洋区域逐渐减弱, 最终至我国长江流域中下游到日本区域消失。将这一过程划分为8个位相, 详细分析了不同位相对应的环流场和降水场特征, 最后给出了IPCO事件演化示意图。     

Understanding Madden-Julian-Induced sea surface temperature variations in the North Western Australian Basin

The strongest large-scale intraseasonal (30–110 day) sea surface temperature (SST) variations in austral summer in the tropics are found in the eastern Indian Ocean between Australia and Indonesia (North-Western Australian Basin, or NWAB). TMI and Argo observations indicate that the temperature signal (std. ~0.4 °C) is most prominent within the top 20 m. This temperature signal appears as a standing oscillation with a 40–50 day timescale within the NWAB, associated with ~40 Wm^?2 net heat fluxes (primarily shortwave and latent) and ~0.02 Nm^?2 wind stress perturbations. This signal is largely related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. A slab ocean model with climatological observed mixed-layer depth and an ocean general circulation model both accurately reproduce the observed intraseasonal SST oscillations in the NWAB. Both indicate that most of the intraseasonal SST variations in the NWAB in austral winter are related to surface heat flux forcing, and that intraseasonal SST variations are largest in austral summer because the mixed-layer is shallow (~20 m) and thus more responsive during that season. The general circulation model indicates that entrainment cooling plays little role in intraseasonal SST variations. The larger intraseasonal SST variations in the NWAB as compared to the widely-studied thermocline-ridge of the Indian Ocean region is explained by the larger convective and air-sea heat flux perturbations in the NWAB.     

Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air�Csea coupling in a regional coupled model

Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean?Catmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air?Csea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20?C90?day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10° further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden?CJulian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further, Hovm?ller diagrams reveal that whereas a significant dynamic intraseasonal signal enters the model domain from the west, the strong deep convection mostly arises within the domain. Taken together, the regional and linear model results suggest that in this region remote forcing and local convection?Ccirculation feedbacks are both important to the intraseasonal variability, but ocean?Catmosphere coupling has only a small effect. Possible mechanisms of remote forcing are discussed.     

热带对流和环流季内振荡强度与海表温度关系对比研究

利用外逸长波辐射(OLR）、风场和海表温度(SST)资料, 研究了热带大气季节内振荡(ISO)强度的季节变化特征, 发现热带印度洋和热带西太平洋区域是OLR和风场季内振荡最主要的共同活跃区。对比分析了OLR和风场季内振荡强度与海表温度异常之间的年际异常关系, 发现OLR季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常之间存在显著局地正相关关系, 即在热带中东太平洋区域、热带西北太平洋区域和热带西南太平洋区域, 当海表温度正(负)异常时, OLR季内振荡增强(减弱),特别在冬春季节这一关系更清楚。除个别区域外, 风场季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常不存在类似OLR的局地关系。OLR和风场季内振荡强度异常与海表温度异常之间局地和非局地关系的差异, 体现了两种要素特性的本质差异。但两种要素季内振荡强度在El Niño事件发展过程中的变化基本一致, 即在气候场中季内振荡活跃的区域, 事件发生之前季内振荡会增强, 并逐渐向东传播, 事件发生之后这些区域振荡减弱。