灰色理论在舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害危险性评价中的应用研究

为分析不同因素对泥石流灾害危险性的影响程度，基于对舟曲南屿沟泥石流灾害影响因素调查结果总结和分析，利用灰色理论分析了泥石流灾害危险性与影响因素间关联程度，并建立了其预判模型。结果表明：沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度及冲淤变幅，沟道平均纵坡降和长度，沟道内植被覆盖率、流域面积及人口密度，松散固体物源量和灾害点密度等因素的影响程度较接近；相同区域内不同沟道泥石流灾害危险性程度受沟岸坡度、沟道堵塞程度、冲淤变幅、沟道平均纵坡降及长度等因素影响显著；基于自然和人为因素建立了泥石流灾害易发程度预估模型，其能够为区域内泥流灾害防治工作部署提供依据。     

云南省麻栗坡县猛硐河“9.02”泥石流调查

云南极端天气气候事件造成了地质灾害发生频发。2018年9月2日云南麻栗坡县猛硐河流域发生特大山洪泥石流灾害,造成10多人死伤,11人失联,建筑损毁、河道淤埋、基础设施破坏,直接经济损失达14亿元。通过对麻栗坡县猛硐"9. 02"河流域泥石流灾害的现场调查,从物源、地形和水源条件入手,分析了灾害特征与形成演化过程。研究表明,降水是泥石流发生的根本原因,造成沟域内岩土体现出崩滑物源、坡面物源和沟道物源三者的启动及链生效应;由于泥石流造成微地貌改变,今后泥石流爆发可能性增大,高频率、中小规模泥石流是泥石流活动的特征。从发展趋势看,该流域正处于泥石流发育阶段,存在发生大规模泥石流的可能性。应及时地进行沟道的治理,并加强监测预警。     

泥石流沟谷坊坝群治理效应——以地震极重灾区北川县化石板沟为例

谷坊坝是泥石流治理的重要工程措施之一。化石板沟泥石流治理工程共设13座谷坊坝,组成梯级谷坊坝群;坝体主要分布在泥石流形成区和流通区,混凝土结构,轴向两端嵌入沟道两侧基岩0.5～1 m。通过对比化石板沟谷坊工程修建前后沟床纵坡比降、沟道两侧斜坡稳定性及泥石流侵蚀速率等方面的差异,证明谷坊工程能够有效拦蓄松散固体物质、稳固沟床和岸坡、降低沟道纵坡比降、降低泥石流流速和耗散流体能量、抬高沟道上游泥石流侵蚀基准面。研究发现,化石板沟谷坊坝群共拦截固体物质2.76×104 m3,仅占流域物源总量574.9×104 m3的0.5%,占近期可供给泥石流活动的物源量85×104 m3的3.3%;稳固沟床松散物质4.37×104 m3,仅占流域物源总量的0.76%,占近期可供给泥石流活动的物源量的5.2%;稳固沟道两侧坡体松散物质134.07×104 m3,占流域物源总量的23.3%,泥石流物源减少;回淤的沟道比降为原比降的60%～75%,相同频率下泥石流流速、峰值流量降低,沟道侵蚀速率下降,泥石流输沙量减少35%～57%;上游泥石流支沟侵蚀基准面抬升0.3～0.5 m。泥石流呈现从粘性到稀性,再到含沙水流的趋势发展。     

美姑河流域公路泥石流物源成因

位于四川西南部横断山区东部边缘大凉山内部的美姑河流域是我国公路泥石流典型发育的地区之一,泥石流具有规模大、致灾作用强烈、活动频率高等特点。从流域地貌景观、新构造应力场及具有焚风效应的大气环流特性出发对区内公路泥石流成因进行了深入分析,获得了地貌景观造就了流域内地表植被稀少、焚风效应显著、泥石流沟轴向与新构造应力场两个剪切带方向一致(相差5.2°~6.5°)的结论,泥石流发育规律符合地貌发育对抗性原理[1]。作为典型事例,把洛高依打泥石流的物源区分为不稳定物源区、基本稳定物源区和稳定物源区,并首次将物源补给量与不同降雨频率相结合,获取了不同降雨频率(3~5 a一遇、10 a一遇、20 a一遇、50 a一遇和100 a一遇)泥石流最大可供物源量。对公路泥石流研究及治理中一些关键问题进行了探讨。     

Connected Degree Evaluation on Watershed Topography Factors of Man-made Debris Flow Gully in Semiarid Area

在神府—东胜矿区人为泥石流沟道广泛野外调查的基础上,选取了43条典型泥石流样沟,在1∶10 000地形图及卫片上进行了形态要素量测,应用流域地貌分析原理,对43条样沟各形态要素进行了剖析及关联度评价,并进行了泥石流沟道发育阶段的信息维分析,所得结论为半干旱地区的人为泥石流沟道地势比沿程变化奇特,以形成区比降最大,区别于自然泥石流沟道;沟道分区面积比以汇水区面积最大,明显区别于湿润地区;流域形状以扇形为主,沟道给养面积较大,崎岖系数不甚太大是半干旱地区人为泥石流沟道的独特之处,泥石流沟道发育以幼、青年期为主,最后得出了以沟道比降为主因子的各形态要素的主次排序。     

半干旱地区泥石流沟道地形要素关联度评价——以神府-东胜矿区人为泥石流沟为例

在神府-东胜矿区人为泥石流沟道广泛野外调查的基础上,选取了43条典型泥石流样沟,在1:10000地形图及卫片上进行了形态要素量测,应用流域地貌分析原理,对43条样沟各形态要素进行了剖析及关联度评价,并进行了泥石流沟道发育阶段的信息维分析,所得结论为:半干旱地区的人为泥石流沟道地势比沿程变化奇特,以形成区比降最大,区别于自然泥石流沟道;沟道分区面积比以汇水区面积最大,明显区别于湿润地区;流域形状以扇形为主,沟道给养面积较大,崎岖系数不甚太大是半干旱地区人为泥石流沟道的独特之处,泥石流沟道发育以幼、青年期为主,最后得出了以沟道比降为主因子的各形态要素的主次排序。     

基于无人机测量的泥石流固体颗粒图像识别与泥石流预警

强震导致崩塌与滑坡碎屑物在泥石流流域内广泛堆积,挤压侵占天然沟道,完全改变了沟床物源级配构成,泥石流激发降雨临界值急剧降低。震后泥石流物源粒径和沟道宽度的变化直接改变了震后泥石流启动过程及机制。泥石流预警模型并未考虑震后泥石流物源组成的动态变化作为主控因素,需要进一步改进。本文现场调查了泸定9·5地震后泥石流沟的形成区及流通堆积区松散堆积物组成,采用无人机航测采集岩土粒径,结合PCAS软件进行泥石流粒径识别,分别通过系统误差、高度误差及坡度误差三个方面进行误差分析,探讨无人机航测泥石流形成区沟道粒径方法的准确性;对泸定大渡河流域得妥乡内的洛进沟和两岔河沟进行粒径测量,结合泥石流1 h预报模型和改进的精细化泥石流1 h预报模型,得到这两条沟震前震后的综合降雨临界值,发现强震后泥石流流域颗粒粒径明显减小,两条泥石流沟的激发临界降雨量都大幅降低;通过误差分析,得到无人机近地观测结合软件测量研究区域内泥石流沟道形成区物源粒径的方法与人工现场测量之间的误差较小,可以用于泥石流物源粒径识别,且由于强震后泥石流的激发降雨临界值是一个动态变化过程,采用无人机可以高效识别泥石流沟道物源的变化。     

中国河流地貌研究进展——纪念沈玉昌先生100年诞辰

2016年是中国现代河流地貌研究的开拓者和奠基人沈玉昌先生100年诞辰,本文对中国河流地貌研究进展进行综述,以资纪念。研究涉及4个方面：① 水系发育与河谷地貌演变,包括大江大河水系历史发育和山区河流地貌;② 侵蚀与产沙过程,包括有物理成因基础的侵蚀产沙模型、侵蚀产沙过程的尺度效应、植被对侵蚀的影响及临界现象、坡面细沟发育过程模拟等;③ 河床过程与河型,包括河道冲淤过程、河床演变、河型成因与演变等;④ 河流地貌系统研究,包括流域系统不同子系统的耦合关系、河流地貌系统中的高含沙水流和多营力地貌过程、河流地貌系统对于自然因素变化和人类活动的响应、河流地貌系统中的泥沙灾害和河流地貌系统的实验研究等。50年前沈玉昌先生与钱宁先生提出在地貌学与河流动力学相结合的基础上发展中国河流学科。文中对此方面的进展进行了综述,并提出了需要深化和解决的问题。     

地貌信息熵在地震后泥石流危险性评价中的应用

地貌信息熵可以表示流域地貌面受侵蚀的程度,是判断地貌发育演化阶段的量化指标之一。基于流域系统地貌信息熵的原理和方法,采用GIS技术和Matlab、SPSS软件,对"5·12"汶川地震后都江堰市深溪沟流域内41个子流域的面积-高程积分值和地貌信息熵进行计算,研究了各个子流域的地貌发育演化基本特征和泥石流发育情况,并将分析结果和地震后野外实际调查的成果进行了对比研究,结果表明:在烈度为Ⅺ的都江堰深溪沟地震重灾区,地震引发的大量崩塌、滑坡导致松散固体物质广泛堆积于沟道内,不仅为泥石流提供丰富的物源,而且使沟道局部的地貌发生了突变,但通过"地貌信息熵"这种方法无法表达丰富物源的变化和沟道地貌的突变,因此,根据地貌信息熵判断地震后泥石流的危险性具有一定的局限性。为了使地震区泥石流危险性评价的结果更加真实、可靠与可信,必须结合流域的实际情况,对地貌信息熵判定的危险性结果进行综合分析与修正,或者通过多种评价方法进行对比论证和分析。     

泥石流输沙及其对山区河道的影响

泥石流能在很短时间内将大量大小混杂的固体物质输入主河,影响主河河床演变,形成灾害。在连续观测资料的基础上,对泥石流输沙的强度、级配和时空分布特征进行了分析。通过实际测量,分析了泥石流在沟道内冲淤特征以及影响泥石流冲淤特征的因素,如泥石流活动规模和局部沟道条件等。通过水槽实验,分析了泥石流与主河交汇的机理,将泥石流入汇主河的模式概括为掺混模式、潜入模式、推进模式和堵河模式,并且从能量角度阐释了汇流区的水沙交汇特征,提出了泥石流堵江的判据。最后,分析了泥石流多发区受泥石流入汇影响,主河河床在平面形态、横断面形态、纵断面形态和河型等方面的变化特征。     

小江流域泥石流堆积扇形成的制约因素及其特征

在系统分析了各种因素对泥石流堆积扇形成影响的基础上,提出流域腹地中流域面积、沟床比降和堆积区主河河谷宽度及主河能量等因素对泥石流堆积扇发育的影响较大。结合TM卫星影象和1:5万地形图,解译了小江流域内泥石流堆积扇的范围。在此基础上,统计了流域腹地内两大重要条件-流域面积和沟床比降与堆积扇面积之间的关系。在小江流域,堆积扇的面积随流域面积的增加而增加,二者之间是正的指数关系;而堆积扇面积与沟床比降之间可用一个负的指数关系式表达。最后,堆积区特征对小江流域泥石流堆积扇的影响主要是其堆积空间限制了大型堆积扇,比如蒋家沟泥石流堆积扇的发展。     

Modelling gravel transport and morphology for the Fraser River Gravel Reach, British Columbia

A two-dimensional (2D) numerical hydrodynamic-morphological model is developed to investigate gravel transport and channel morphology in a large wandering gravel-bed river, the Fraser River Gravel Reach, in British Columbia, Canada. The model takes into count multi-fraction bedload transport, including the effects of surface coarsening, hiding and protrusion. Model outputs together with river discharge statistics were analyzed, producing distributed sediment budget and well-defined, localised zones of aggradation and degradation along the gravel reach. Long-term channel response to gravel extraction from aggrading zones as a flood hazard mitigation measure was also investigated numerically to assess the effectiveness of such an extraction. The total computed sediment budget agrees well with results based on field measurements of gravel transport available to us. This study points to the importance of a number of factors to bedload predictions: the gravel-to-sand ratio, the adequacy of resolving the wandering planform, and the distinction between bed shear stress driving bedload transport and bed resistance on the flow. These are in addition to the physical processes governing the flow field and gravel mobilization. The methodology presented in this paper can provide a scientific basis for gravel management including monitoring and extraction in order to maintain adequate flood protection and navigation, while preserving the ecosystem.     

金沙江向家坝库区泥石流发育状况及其沟谷形态的非线性特征

通过对金沙江向家坝库区长约150km范围内的55条泥石流沟发育状况统计显示。自库首至库尾。泥石流沟的数目、发育密度及规模均呈逐渐增强趋势。同时泥石流沟的流域面积、主沟长度及纵坡平均坡降均存在明显的分形特征，它们与沟道数目之间有良好的非线性关系，并在一定程度上揭示了这些泥石流沟谷形态演变的非均匀性和自相似性。     

西藏帕隆藏布河谷崩塌滑坡、泥石流的分布规律

西藏帕隆藏布河谷崩塌滑坡、泥石流灾害严重。崩塌滑坡、泥石流的分布 ,因谷坡坡向的水热条件差异而导致坡向差异 ,因地貌发育和形态的沿程分异显现沿程差异 ,因其促发条件的差异又显现灾种差异。采用有序样品最优分割和方差分析等定量方法 ,揭示了崩塌滑坡、泥石流的差异性分布规律 :全河段可分为上游峡谷泥石流密集段 ,中游宽谷泥石流及崩塌滑坡较密集段 ,和下游、拉月曲峡谷崩塌滑坡、泥石流极密集段 ;北岸崩塌滑坡和泥石流比南岸数量多、规模大 ;崩塌滑坡有向下游增大增多之趋势。进而对道路平面选线原则提出了建议。     

黄河内蒙古河段冲淤演变及其影响因素(英文)

Rivers with fluvial equilibrium are characterized by bed deformation adjustment. The erosion-deposition area in cross-section reflects this characteristic, which is a base of researching the river scour and deposition evolution by time series analysis. With an erosion-deposition area indicator method proposed in this paper, the time series of erosion-deposition area quantity at Bygl and Shhk stations were obtained with the series duration of 31 years from 1976 to 2006. After analysis of its trend and mutation, three different ten- dencies about the evolution were observed in general from the quasi-equilibrium phase through a rapid shrinkage to the final new quasi-equilibrium. It is also found that the trend of erosion-deposition area series will change once a big flood occurred in some of the tributaries, and its ever greater influence is due to the decrease of deluge with the completion of upstream reservoirs. Almost all the turning points were coincident with the time when hyper-concentrated sediment flood occurred in some tributaries. With the time series of clear mutations since the late 1990s, the Inner Mongolian Reach has been in a new equilibrium phase. This can be concluded in two aspects. 1. The absence of big floods and sediment transportation from tributaries result in the river shrinkage, and to regain the channel flow-carrying capacity in Inner Mongolian Reach a large flood is needed both of high peak discharge and of lengthy interval to destroy the new equilibrium. 2. The proposed method of erosion-deposition area indicator is of great help to channel scoureposition evolution analysis because it can demonstrate real time deformation of cross section in quantity.     

长江中下游阻隔性河段作用机理

阻隔性河段能够阻隔上游河势调整向下游的传递,对稳定河势起到关键性作用。本文以长江中下游34个单一河段为研究对象,在系统总结长江中下游河道演变规律的基础上,归纳出阻隔性河段控制要素包括：单一微弯的河道平面形态、河段中上部无挑流节点;河相系数小于4;河道纵比降大于1.2?;凹岸黏粒含量高于9.5%;床沙中值粒径大于0.158 mm等。从Navier-Stokes方程出发,推导出河湾水流动力轴线弯曲半径的表达式,进而分析了各控制要素对水流动力轴线摆动及阻隔性河段形成的作用。阻隔性河段的判别条件为：不同流量级下水流动力轴线摆动力与河道边界条件约束力的比值始终小于1;阻隔性河段作用机理在于：即便上游河势发生调整,本河段的河道边界始终能约束主流摆动幅度,归顺上游不同河势条件下的主流平面位置,为下游河道提供了相对稳定的入流条件,从而阻隔上游河势调整向下游传递。     

都汶公路沿线泥石流危险性评价

汶川地震诱发的次生泥石流灾害,已成为灾区防灾减灾工作的突出问题和灾后恢复重建的重要制约因素之一,泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害风险管理的核心基础技术。以都汶公路沿线的31条泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外考察、遥感图像的解译、查阅相关文献资料等手段获取研究区泥石流沟的基础数据,通过选取地质、地形、气象、水文指标,并利用主成分分析法对关键因子进行筛选和灰色系统模型进行权重的确定,建立泥石流危险性评价模型,计算得到每条沟的泥石流危险度值。评价结果表明:公路沿线31条泥石流沟处于不同泥石流危险等级:极高危险占23%,高危险占35%,中度危险占13%,轻度危险占29%;其中红椿沟、肖家沟、烧房沟等沟属于泥石流极高危险沟道,高家沟、牛圈沟等属于高度危险沟道,公路选线须采取避让或充分的防治对策。     

Fluvial processes of the downstream reaches of the reservoirs in the Lower Yellow River

Evolution of the river channel downstream of reservoirs is a complex process that is closely related to the operational mode of the reservoirs and the channel boundary conditions. Numerous studies have been carried out on the fluvial processes of downstream reservoirs. However, only a few of them have focused on the relationship between runoff-sediment conditions and channel pattern indicators. Also, the impacts of river training works on fluvial processes are seldom dealt with. In this paper, the evolutionary processes of three sections in the Lower Yellow River, including Tiexie-Yiluo River mouth reach, Huayuankou-Heigangkou reach and Jiahetan-Gaocun reach, were analyzed for variations in the channel boundary line and the mainstream between 1960 and 2015. Channel pattern indicators such as sinuosity, mainstream wandering range and width/depth ratio were analyzed based on field measurements obtained by the Hydrological Department of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission. The effects of river training works on the channel evolution are then described. Since 1960, numerous medium- and large-sized reservoirs have been built on the Yellow River, including Longyangxia Reservoir, Liujiaxia Reservoir and Xiaolangdi Reservoir. These reservoirs impound the runoff from upstream and retain the sediment, which changes the runoff and sediment conditions in the downstream reach. As a consequence, annual runoff and the frequency and peak of flooding have all decreased. As a result, the flow dynamics and their action on the river channel are also reduced, which changes the dynamic state of the river course. The discrimination results obtained using the single parameter discrimination rule and the discrimination equation show that the degree of wandering is weakened in the reaches studied. The variations in the channel pattern indicators show that the sinuosity increases and the wandering range decreases with a reduction in the total annual volume of water. However, the degree of wandering has little relationship to the sediment concentration. In addition, river training works play an important role in controlling the river course. Due to improvements in the river training works, the river course has become more stable under the same runoff and sediment conditions. A new discrimination rule that takes into account the impacts of the river training works is proposed. The discrimination results were found to fit well with the actual river pattern, which shows that the discrimination rule is applicable to the Lower Yellow River. The results show that the runoff and sediment conditions are the most important factors in the evolution of the river course. The river training works have at the same time limited the wandering range of the mainstream and played an important role in the fluvial processes. Both factors combined lead to the stabilization of the river.     

培龙沟泥石流及其堵江可能性探讨

培龙沟是由冰川和降水共同激发的一条大规模泥石流沟。流域内充足的冰水资源，丰富的冰碛，有利的地形条件是泥石流发生及今后发展的动因。1983-1986年培龙沟泥石流堵塞了帕隆藏布江，本文就今后不同泥石流发生频率探讨了泥石流再次堵江的可能性。这一探讨为该沟泥石流工程整治及过沟工程设计提供科学依据。