珠江口全新世沉积物粒度与磁化率的变化特征及其所反映的气候环境变化

通过对来自珠江口万顷沙W2孔的沉积物进行AMS 14 C测年,结合古地磁测试以及孢粉分析结果,并与其他相关记录综合对比,建立了该地区全新世以来的年代框架。使用粒度组合特征以及磁化率等环境代用指标,获取了该地区约6000cal yr BP以来的气候环境变化信息。经过分析与对比,认为该区自中全新世以来,经历了暖干-凉湿-温湿3个气候环境变化阶段。在晚全新世中国南方地区气候(尤其是降雨量)发生了重要的变化,这与北半球太阳辐射减弱,气温降低,亚洲季风减弱,降雨带南移有着一致的对应关系,同时还很可能与这一时期厄尔尼诺—南方涛动活动加强有着紧密的联系。     

全新世气候系统的突变及周期性

高纬冰心、海洋沉积物及陆相古气候沉积记录揭示了全新世冰后期(最近1万年以来)存在系列气候突变事件及百年—千年尺度的气候周期韵律,证实了在冰期-间冰期旋回大尺度气候背景下全球气候存在较大不稳定特征这一基本事实。全新世作为与人类文明衔接的最新地质时段,各国科学家针对全新世气候系统变化特征及驱动机制的研究不断取得新的进展,这些成果将为未来气候演化趋势预测提供重要的历史相似性。总结了近年来关于全新世气候系统的突变及周期性研究的一些成果,并进行了概略的评述和展望。     

西安白鹿塬全新世黄土剖面磁化率的古气候特征

对西安地区全新世以来的环境演变特征进行了系统研究,建立了该地区全新世以来黄土-古土壤沉积的年代序列,揭示其反映的东亚冬、夏季风变迁规律,为预测西安地区乃至中国和全球未来环境的发展趋势提供依据。通过对西安白鹿塬刘家坡典型剖面全新世黄土-古土壤地层的岩性描述、地层划分和对比,结合泾阳县新庄村AMS14C的年代测定和其他学者的测年数据,建立了该地区全新世以来黄土沉积的年代序列。根据磁化率气候替代指标显示的曲线特征,阐述了这一替代指标在剖面上的变化规律,探讨了该黄土剖面所反映的东亚冬、夏季风强弱变化特点,详细分析了西安地区全新世以来环境变化的特征和规律,进而将该剖面磁化率曲线特征与其他学者根据孢粉谱建立的温度曲线对比,对西安地区全新世以来古气候的阶段性进行了详细分析和论证,将西安地区10000a以来的气候演变划分为7个阶段。     

珠江口全新世沉积物粒度与磁化率的变化特征及其所反映的气候环境变化（英文）

通过对来自珠江口万顷沙W2孔的沉积物进行AMS14C测年,结合古地磁测试以及孢粉分析结果,并与其他相关记录综合对比,建立了该地区全新世以来的年代框架。使用粒度组合特征以及磁化率为环境代用指标,获取了该地区约6000 cal yr BP以来的气候环境变化信息。经过分析与对比,认为该区自中全新世以来,经历了暖干-凉湿-温湿三个气候环境变化阶段。在晚全新世中国南方地区气候（尤其是降雨量）发生了重要的变化,这与北半球太阳辐射减弱,气温降低,亚洲季风减弱,降雨带南移有着一致的对应关系,同时还很可能与这一时期厄尔尼诺—南方涛动活动加强有着紧密的联系。     

运城盆地11 kaBP以来气候环境变迁与湖面波动

通过黄土区湖泊沉积研究来恢复古气候、古环境，是对黄土区古气候、古环境研究的补充和检验。通过山西运城盆地硝地湖泊沉积物的多环境代用指标分析，结合史料记载，探讨了该地区11kaBP以来古气候演化和湖面波动的历史。结果表明，该地区存在YD（Younger Dryas）事件，进入全新世后气候有显著的趋势，最高湿润度发生在7．88－5．15和5kaBP后，气候逐渐变干，湖面波动与气候波动相关，全新世早期湖面开始上升，湖泊扩张，5kaBP后湖泊萎缩，盐类结晶析出。     

腾格里沙漠西北缘湖泊沉积记录的全新世中期气候环境

通过腾格里沙漠西北缘青土湖沉积物粒度、有机碳、碳酸盐、碳氮比和有机质稳定同位素等多项沉积学气候代用指标及精确定年的综合分析,建立了该区域全新世中期9.0~3.0 cal.kaBP的古气候演化序列。结果表明,9~7.8 cal.kaBP期间,区域的水分条件和温度逐渐上升,植被状况好转,此阶段属于全新世早期向全新世暖湿期转变的过程;而在7.8~7.5 cal.kaBP期间出现了显著的百年尺度的干旱事件,沉积物主要以砂质沉积为主,此时湖泊生产力显著下降;全新世期间最为暖湿的气候适宜期出现在7.5~5.0 cal.kaBP;5.0 cal.kaBP以来,该区域出现了较为明显的干旱化趋势。     

南海南部末次冰期以来的古环境变化:YSJD-86GC柱样的证据

采自南海南部的YSJD-86GC柱样(113°02.5860′E,10°18.1740′N,水深2 651m,柱长1.68m)提供了该区近27ka以来的古海洋学记录。沉积物岩性特征、浮游有孔虫分布特征、全岩样品AMS14C测年、氧稳定同位素等分析结果表明,南海南部末次冰期以来一直处于稳定的陆坡—半深海沉积环境;氧同位素Ⅱ期以来表层海水古温度逐渐增高;温跃层在氧同位素Ⅱ期相对较浅,之后逐渐变深,全新世中期以来又再次变浅。11—9.5ka BP期间有一次古气候回返事件,与"新仙女木"事件相对应;6—5ka BP期间古气候波动较大,是全新世中期气候波动剧烈阶段的记录。     

辽东湾北部LH01孔晚更新世24Ka以来古环境演变

通过对辽东湾北部LH01孔柱状岩芯样品进行粒度、孢粉、有孔虫和测年多项环境指标测试,探讨了辽东湾北部晚更新世24ka BP以来的古环境演变。LH01孔沉积环境经历了晚更新世晚期河湖相沉积—全新世早期海陆交互相沉积—全新世中期浅海相沉积—全新世晚期河口滨海相沉积;气候经历了晚更新世晚期冷较干—晚更新世晚期凉稍润—新仙女木降温—全新世早期凉稍润—全新世中期温暖较润—全新世中期温暖较干—全新世晚期温较干的变化;LH01孔在大约7.5ka BP发生了盘山海侵。     

黄土高原西安地区全新世的植被与气候环境

对黄土高原中部南侧西安一带进行采样及孢粉分析,初步探讨和证实了一万年来西安地区植被的发育演替,详细地论证了该地区的古气候环境以及植被、气候和环境在时间上的演化规律和在空间上的差异,总结了早、中、晚全新世在该区发育的植被及其所代表的气候环境。根据西安蓝田、半坡两个剖面各17个样品的分析,将孢粉图式分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ带,分别代表全新世早、中、晚3个时期的孢粉带。蓝田剖面显示：Ⅰ带为蒿属优势带;Ⅱ带为栎-榛-榆增长带及蒿-环纹藻优势带→栎-鹅耳枥-菊增长带;Ⅲ带为松-菊-藜-中华卷柏增长带。研究认为：早全新世植被为疏林草原,气候较冷较干;中全新世植被为温带落叶阔叶林为主的森林草原并掺杂少量亚热带植物,气候温暖湿润;晚全新世植被为以松、篙为主的森林草原,气候转向温凉干旱。     

渤海湾西岸CH114 孔全新世沉积 环境演化与海陆作用

对渤海湾西岸CH114 孔岩心全新世沉积硅藻进行了系统研究,发现硅藻17 属28 种。与沉积岩石学、年代学（AMS 14C）研究相结合,将该孔自下而上划分为6 个硅藻组合带,显示研究区全新世以来经历了从陆到海的演化过程：全新世初期 为陆相（组合1带下部） 至受海水影响的盐沼低地环境（组合1带上部）;6 646~4 280 cal BP 年间为受风暴强力事件影响的 浅海环境（组合2带）;4 280 年以来为水深不断变浅的浅海环境（组合3-6 带）。CH114 孔沉积速率的阶段性变化与河流供 给有较好的对应关系：3.6~2.6 ka cal BP和0.4ka cal BP 以来两个时段相对较高的沉积速率,分别与黄河三角洲超级叶瓣5 的 形成和海河独立入海相对应。由硅藻记录的海洋影响的波动变化与全新世气候变化对比显示：研究区海洋影响的增强与气候 变暖具有一定的正相关性。CH114孔全新世以来陆海环境的演化,总体上是对气候与海面变化的响应。     

Pacific decadal oscillation and European climatic anomalies

By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for 1951–2001, we study the characteristics of Pacific cyclones. It is shown that the northeast-southwest direction is predominant in the displacements of cyclones in the North Pacific. We study the variability of the field of surface atmospheric pressure in different phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation characterizing the temperature anomalies on the surface of the ocean in the region bounded by 20 and 60°N. It is shown that the decadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation supported by the large-scale anomalies of the Pacific decadal oscillation is the most important cause of natural decadal oscillations in the European region. We study and evaluate the regional response to the Pacific decadal oscillation by using, as an example, the analysis of variations of the discharge of European rivers. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 13–23, July–August, 2007.     

Determining confidence intervals in analyzing climatic series

In the context of the problem of global warming, the question of how much the observed increase in the mean air temperature over the last decades is likely due only to natural variability is studied. It is assumed that an observed temperature-data series of length N is a segment of a stationary random sequence with a spectrum known on an interval that does not include the lowest frequencies. The variance σ²(N) of the sample mean m* and the standard deviation σ(N), which determines the width of the confidence interval of m*, are calculated for different continuations of the spectrum to the low-frequency region. For a continuation of the spectrum that boundlessly increases, as does ω^−2α (0 < α < 1/2) when the frequency ω tends to zero (red-noise spectrum), it is shown that, the closer the parameter α is to 1/2, the more slowly σ(N) tends to zero at N → ∞. Using an empirical spectrum of a global mean annual temperature series as an example, it is shown that the standard deviation significantly depends on the form of the spectrum in the lowest frequency region. An attempt has been made to assess the measure of standard-deviation uncertainty due to a lack of exact information on the spectrum in the low-frequency region. Important series characteristics—the equivalent number of independent observations N _eq(N) and the time scale of correlation T ₁(N) which are determined through the variance σ²(N) of m*—also depend on the form of the spectrum in the low-frequency region. For the red-noise spectrum, N _eq(N) increases with an increase in N proportionally to N ^1–2α (but not proportionally to N as in the case of bounded spectrum); the correlation scale T ₁(N) is no longer constant (as in the case of bounded spectrum) and increases with an increase in N proportionally to N ^2α.     

热带气旋气候数学模型的预报应用

使用西太平洋海温格点资料,选取若干个因子,组成多个复合因子,建立权重方程,使得单因子的相关系数信度检验0．05提高到复合因子的信度检验0．01,权重方程的信度检验提高到0．001。用权重方程产生的突变的高阶非线性预报方程,其Y与X的相关系数比1阶线性方程提高5％左右。自1999年至今,热带气旋年、月频数气候预测的模型投入到实际预报应用,其预报准确律达到75%～90％。使用非线性预报模型作了逐日气压、逐日雨量的气候预测。将沿海气压场、雨量场的气候预测结果用于分析、制作热带气旋登陆中国以及广东地区的时段、地段的气候预报,准确率达80％～90％。     

影响福建热带气旋的若干基本气候特征

１９４９～１９９７年,登陆及影响福建的热带气旋共有２５８个,年均５．０６个。其中,台风占总数的７０．６％;８５．５％源于西太平洋。在８９个登陆热带气旋中,登台入闽路径有５３个。近６０％登陆台湾的热带气旋在福建再次登陆。当前福建处于少热带气旋阶段。     

Chronomics of climatic variations of tree ring width

Variations in the average annual tree rings of 11 sequoia trees for 2189 years are studied. The power spectrum of tree ring variations, calculated by the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM), is power-law in character with the coefficient β close to ?1.00, suggesting the fractal character of the considered time series. The calculations of the coefficient β in a 200-year sliding window showed that this coefficient rapidly drops to zero or very small positive values, indicating a break in the fractal structure in some intervals. We identified seven such episodes, two (the latest) of which correspond to Spörer and Maunder solar minima. The other five episodes, which occurred around 100 BC and 500, 700, 820, and 880 AD, i.e., before regular sunspot observations, may also correspond to climate changes. By combining methods aimed at identifying the specific spectral components, such as the Schwabe cycle and behavior of the 1/f dependence as a chaos characteristic, the chronobiologic (chronomics) approach can be used to study the global climatic processes—such as cycles of about 500 years—bearing on global warming.     

West African holocene stratigraphy, transgressions and climatic changes

First an historical outline of the West African Holocene stratigraphy is briefly presented showing that the present scheme is situated halfway between litho- and climatostratigraphy. Then, on the basis of comparisons between previous hypotheses and published palynostratigraphical results, a tentative climatic zonation is proposed whose congruence with deltaic and continental succession is emphasised. Finally, in the Senegal river, a correlation based on purely lithostratigraphical system clear of all climatic interpretation, provides interesting information on the hydrodynamics of the sea-level change at the very base of the Holocene from the delta to 250km upstream.     

Seasonal variability of climatic currents in the Caspian Sea reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the model of water circulation

We present the results of an analysis of the seasonal variability of current fields in the Caspian Sea, reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the primitive-equation model of water circulation on the basis of an algorithm for adaptive statistics of prediction errors. The sources in heat and salt transfer-diffusion equations depend on the spatial and temporal variability of the variances of prediction errors and one-dimensional (in the vertical coordinate) variances of measurement errors for temperature and salinity. The variances of prediction errors are adjusted at the moments of data assimilation in accordance with a simplified Kalman filter. The climatic circulation of waters in the Caspian Sea is shown to be highly varying. The maximum of its intensity over the entire depth is reached in February. The minimum of kinetic energy is observed in April. The currents in deep-sea areas are determined by the balance between wind and baroclinic factors of the formation of circulation with wind currents prevalent.     

Estimating climatic temperature change in the ocean with syntheticacoustic apertures

An acoustic tomography simulation is carried out in the eastern North Pacific ocean to assess whether climate trends are better detected and mapped with mobile or fixed receivers. In both cases, acoustic signals from two stationary sources are transmitted to ten receivers. Natural variability of the sound-speed field is simulated with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) layered-ocean model. A sequential Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the sound speed field, where the a priori error covariance matrix of the parameters is estimated from the NRL model. A spatially homogeneous climate trend is added to the NRL fluctuations of sound speed, but the trend is not parameterized in the Kalman filter. Acoustic travel times are computed between the sources and receivers by combining sound speeds from the NRL model with those from the unparameterized climate trend. The effects of the unparameterized climate trend are projected onto parameters which eventually drift beyond acceptable limits. At that time, the unparameterized trend is detected. Mobile and fixed receivers detect the trend at about the same time. At detection time, however, maps from fixed receivers are less accurate because some of the unparameterized climate trend is projected onto tile spatially varying harmonics of the sound-speed field. With mobile receivers, the synthetic apertures suppress the projection onto these harmonics. Instead, the unparametrized trend is correctly projected onto the spatially homogeneous portion of the parameterized sound-speed field