Comparison of Kalpana-1 atmospheric motion vectors with other observations

The operational derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) using infrared (10.5–12.5 μm) and water vapor (6.3–7.1 μm) channels of successive geostationary satellite images started in the 1980s. Subsequently, AMVs have become an important component for operational numerical weather prediction throughout the globe for the last decade or so. In India, at the Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, the operational derivation of AMVs (infrared winds and water vapor winds) from the Indian geostationary satellite Kalpana-1 has been initiated a few years back. Recently, an L-band radar lower atmosphere wind profiler (LAWP) has been installed at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki located at (13.58°N, 79.28°E) for continuous high-resolution wind measurements in the lower atmosphere. In this study, a comparison of Kalpana-1 AMVs with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde has been carried out for a period of one and a half years. The performances of Kalpana-1 AMVs are also assessed by a separate comparison of Meteosat-7 AMVs, derived at the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde. Both sets of comparison show that AMVs from Kalpana-1 and Meteosat-7 are comparable over the Indian Ocean region.     

2014年冬季阿图什2次灾害性大风对比分析

2014年11月下旬和12月上旬,南疆西部的克州地区出现了两次灾害性大风天气,12月8日克州阿图什的大风突破建站以来的历史极值。本文利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°的6小时再分析资料,对这两次大风天气成因进行了对比分析。结果表明：秋末冬初南北支高空急流震荡汇合时,汇合处易出现西北大风;高空斜压槽和强锋区、地面强冷高压及南疆西部热低压是发生此类大风天气的影响系统;高空中期环流形势、冷空气强度、动量下传决定了大风的类型与强度;温度平流、垂直运动的强度及配置与大风强度关系密切。     

Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

In this study, we analysed decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966–2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector, using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level from satellite altimetry and tide gauges at interannual and decadal timescales. The amplitude of decadal sea level variability (up to ~5 cm standard deviation) is typically nearly half of the interannual variations (up to ~10 cm) and two to three times larger than long-term sea level variations (up to 2 cm). Zonal wind stress varies at decadal timescales in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean, with coherent signals in ERA-40 (from which the model forcing is derived), NCEP, twentieth century and WASWind products. Contrary to the variability at interannual timescale, for which there is a tendency of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events to co-occur, decadal wind stress variations are relatively independent in the two basins. In the Pacific, those wind stress variations drive Ekman pumping on either side of the equator, and induce low frequency sea level variations in the western Pacific through planetary wave propagation. The equatorial signal from the western Pacific travels southward to the west Australian coast through equatorial and coastal wave guides. In the Indian Ocean, decadal zonal wind stress variations induce sea level fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, through equatorial and coastal wave-guides. Wind stress curl in the southern Indian Ocean drives decadal variability in the south-western Indian Ocean through planetary waves. Decadal sea level variations in the south–western Indian Ocean, in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Bay of Bengal are weakly correlated to variability in the Pacific Ocean. Even though the wind variability is coherent among various wind products at decadal timescales, they show a large contrast in long-term wind stress changes, suggesting that long-term sea level changes from forced ocean models need to be interpreted with caution.     

Intercomparison of Oceansat-2 and ASCAT Winds with In Situ Buoy Observations and Short-Term Numerical Forecasts

Sea surface winds from the Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) are important inputs to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recently updated the OSCAT retrieval algorithm in order to generate better products. An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the updated OSCAT winds using buoy observations and the 6-hour short-term forecasts from the T574L64 model from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) during the 2011 monsoon. The results of the OSCAT evaluation are also compared with those from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on-board the Meteorological Operational Satellite-A (MetOp-A) which were evaluated in the same way. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) for wind speed and direction, are within 2?m?s^?1 and 20° for both scatterometers. The RMSDs for OSCAT are slightly higher than those for ASCAT, and this difference may be attributed in part to the difference in frequency and resolution of the scatterometer payloads. The bias and standard deviation for ASCAT winds are also lower than those for OSCAT winds with respect to the model short-range forecast, and this can be attributed to the regular assimilation of ASCAT winds in the model.     

Present and future near-surface wind climate of Greenland from high resolution regional climate modelling

The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values (κ > 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values (κ < 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081–2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m^?2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s^?1.     

台风“莫拉克”影响期间浙江大风成因分析

利用常规资料、浙江省自动站加密资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°每日4次再分析资料和多普勒天气雷达资料对2009年第8号台风“莫拉克”影响期间浙江大风的成因进行了分析。此次台风大风影响具有影响时间早、持续时间长、影响范围大和大风强度强的特点。副热带高压快速加强西进是造成台风大风提早出现的主要原因之一。鞍型场、3个台风相互影响使得“莫拉克”台风移速减慢,导致台风大风对浙江沿海的影响时间增长。“莫拉克”登陆福建后其西北侧华北高压以及东南侧海上高压的存在使得地面气压梯度维持,导致大风影响时间增长和影响范围增大。垂直方向环流将高层动量下传导致低层风速猛增。多普勒天气雷达径向速度产品VCP21进行速度退模糊后可以作为台风大风分布范围和极大风速预测的一个参考依据,预测时其在沿海海面效果要较内陆好。     

Interannual linkage between Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation and tropical Indian Ocean precipitation during boreal winter

In the study authors analyzed the interannual relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precipitation in boreal winter for the period 1979–2009. A significant simultaneous teleconnection between them is found. After removing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole signals, the AO/NAO and the TIO precipitation (0°–10°S, 60°–80°E) yield a correlation of +0.56, which is also consistent with the AO/NAO-outgoing longwave radiation correlation of ?0.61. The atmospheric and oceanic features in association with the AO/NAO-precipitation links are investigated. During positive AO/NAO winter, the Rossby wave guided by westerlies tends to trigger persistent positive geopotential heights in upper troposphere over about 20°–30°N and 55°–70°E, which is accompanied by a stronger Middle East jet stream. Meanwhile, there are anomalous downward air motions, strengthening the air pressure in mid-lower troposphere. The enhanced Arabian High brings anomalous northern winds over the northern Indian Ocean. As a result the anomalous crossing-equator air-flow enhances the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). On the other hand, the anomalous Ekman transport convergence by the wind stress curl over the central TIO deepens the thermocline. Both the enhanced ITCZ and the anomalous upper ocean heat content favor in situ precipitation in the central TIO. The AO/NAO-TIO precipitation co-variations in the IPCC AR4 historical climate simulation (1850–1999) of Bergen Climate Model version 2 were investigated. The Indian Ocean precipitation anomalies (particularly the convective precipitation along the ITCZ), in conjunction with the corresponding surface winds and 200 hPa anticyclonic atmospheric circulation and upper ocean heat contents were well reproduced in simulation. The similarity between the observation and simulation support the physical robustness of the AO/NAO-TIO precipitation links.     

浙江北部近海边界层风廓线特征分析

利用2010年12月至2014年5月宁波近海凉帽山370m高塔气象梯度风观测和浙江北部沿海自动气象站测风资料,对浙江北部近海风速垂直廓线进行分析,结果发现:受地形影响,偏南、偏北风时塔基风速一般比上一层风速大。不同天气系统影响下近地边界层风廓线不同,南风型320m以下风速基本遵从对数律。热带气旋影响型和北风型时风廓线可分为3段,常通量层内基本满足对数律,该层向上一段高度热带气旋影响型风速变化不大,北风型反而减小,再往上风速又继续增大。北风型风廓线的这种3段结构表现比热带气旋影响型更为清楚,约80~109m风速出现相对极大值,200~250m间存在风速极小值。满足对数律的近地边界层内小风比大风具有更好的拟合优度。浙江北部沿海自动气象站测风资料不同风型统计分析与高塔风廓线表现基本一致。     

Evaluation of the antarctic surface wind climate from ERA reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT simulations based on automatic weather stations

A continental scale evaluation of Antarctic surface winds is presented from global ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses and RACMO2/ANT regional climate model at 55 and 27 km horizontal resolution, based on a comparison with observational data from 115 automatic weather stations (AWS). The Antarctic surface wind climate can be classified based on the Weibull shape factor k _w . Very high values (k _w  > 3) are found in the interior plateaus, typical of very uniform katabatic-dominated winds with high directional constancy. In the coast and all over the Antarctic Peninsula the shape factors are similar to the ones found in mid-latitudes (k _w  < 3) typical of synoptically dominated wind climates. The Weibull shape parameter is systematically overpredicted by ERA reanalyses. This is partly corrected by RACMO2/ANT simulations which introduce more wind speed variability in complex terrain areas. A significant improvement is observed in the performance of ERA-Interim over ERA-40, with an overall decrease of 14 % in normalized mean absolute error. In escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, ERA-Interim bias can be as high as 10 m s^?1. These large deviations are partly corrected by the regional climate model. Given that RACMO2/ANT is an independent simulation of the near-surface wind speed climate, as it is not driven by observations, it compares very well to the ERA-Interim and AWS-115 datasets.     

A study on the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind and temperature data (1948–2011) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data, a long-term trend in the tropical easterly jet stream and its effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been explained in the present study. A decreasing trend in zonal wind speed at 100 mb (maximum decrease), 150 mb, and 200 mb (minimum) is observed. The upper-level (100, 150, and 200 mb) zonal wind speed has been correlated with the surface air temperature anomaly index (ATAI) in the month of May, which is taken as the difference in temperature anomaly over land (22.5°N–27.5°N, 80°E–90°E) and Ocean (5°S–0°S, 75°E–85°E). Significant high correlation is observed between May ATAI and tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) which suggests that the decreasing land–sea temperature contrast could be one major reason behind the decreasing trend in TEJ. The analysis of spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows a decreasing trend in rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, central Indian region, and western coast of India. Increasing trend in rainfall is observed over south peninsular and northeastern part of India. From the spatial correlation analysis of zonal wind with gridded rainfall, it is observed that the correlation of rainfall is found to be high with the TEJ speed over the regions where the decreasing trend in rainfall is observed. Similarly, from the analysis of spatial correlation between rainfall and May ATAI, positive spatial correlation is observed between May ATAI and summer monsoon rainfall over the regions such as south peninsular India where the rainfall trend is positive, and negative correlation is observed over the places such as Jammu and Kashmir where negative rainfall trend is observed. The decreased land–sea temperature contrast in the pre-monsoon month could be one major reason behind the decreased trend in TEJ as well as the observed spatial variation in the summer monsoon rainfall trend. Thus, the study explained the long-term trend in TEJ and its relation with May month temperature over the Indian Ocean and land region and its effect on the trend and spatial distribution of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.     

The Høvsøre Tall Wind-Profile Experiment: A Description of Wind Profile Observations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

We present an analysis of data from a nearly 1-year measurement campaign performed at Høvsøre, Denmark, a coastal farmland area where the terrain is flat. Within the easterly sector upstream of the site, the terrain is nearly homogenous. This topography and conditions provide a good basis for the analysis of vertical wind-speed profiles under a wide range of atmospheric stability, turbulence, and forcing conditions. One of the objectives of the campaign was to serve as a benchmark for flow over flat terrain models. The observations consist of combined wind lidar and sonic anemometer measurements at a meteorological mast. The sonic measurements cover the first 100 m and the wind lidar measures above 100 m every 50 m in the vertical. Results of the analysis of observations of the horizontal wind-speed components in the range 10–1200 m and surface turbulence fluxes are illustrated in detail, combined with forcing conditions derived from mesoscale model simulations. Ten different cases are presented. The observed wind profiles approach well the simulated gradient and geostrophic winds close to the simulated boundary-layer height during both barotropic and baroclinic conditions, respectively, except for a low-level jet case, as expected. The simulated winds are also presented for completeness and show good agreement with the measurements, generally underpredicting the turning of the wind in both barotropic and baroclinic cases.     

一次罕见黄渤海大风天气成因分析

利用气象常规资料、风廓线资料和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对2015年10月1日黄渤海罕见大风天气成因进行分析。结果表明:较强冷空气与快速发展的入海气旋相互作用形成强气压梯度是导致此次海上强风的主要原因。对流层中低层强冷平流区与地面变压风大值区有较好的对应关系。上下相接的整层冷平流有利于地面形成强气压梯度和变压梯度。气压梯度在大风形成的初期起主导作用,变压梯度有利于强风的维持。本次过程出现明显动量下传现象,大风形成初期,500~1000m出现低空动量下传并影响地面风场,高空槽过境后,2000m以上的高空动量能够影响地面风场。风廓线观测到低层强风并伴有强的下沉运动,可以作为海上大风临近预警的指标之一。     

风廓线雷达与天气雷达风廓线数据的融合及应用

风廓线雷达与多普勒天气雷达风廓线产品均可以获取高时间分辨率的高空风信息,但两种遥感测风的探测原理及时空代表性不同。在对风廓线雷达进行质量控制处理、剔除降水粒子空间不均匀分布对数据可信度影响之后,根据风廓线雷达与天气雷达风廓线数据探测原理差异,进行不同时间代表性的风廓线数据的空间匹配试验,确定与天气雷达风廓线数据进行融合的风廓线雷达数据最优时间分辨率,结果为1 h。利用2015年7月北京南郊观象台的探空、风廓线雷达、天气雷达测风数据进行三种高空风的一致性比对,结果表明三种测风数据具有较好的一致性,均方根误差分别为2.3和2.5 m·s~(-1);60、30以及6 min不同时间代表性风廓线雷达数据与天气雷达风廓线数据之间的均方根误差分别为2.6、2.8及3.1 m·s~(-1),60 min数据的融合效果最佳,低空尤其明显。利用广东省2014年5月的风廓线雷达观测网以及天气雷达网风廓线数据进行了高空风场的融合分析试验,融合分析场提供了更为丰富的高空中尺度水平风场信息,低空的涡旋更加明显。     

Spatial and temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment

The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia during the summer (JJAS) season is studied using observations (both station and satellite based) and model simulation data. The simulation dataset is generated using the fourth version of the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) for the period 1989–2005. Ethiopia is first divided into 12 homogeneous regions using criteria including rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), spatial correlation, seasonal cycles, and topographical features. Spatially averaged observed and simulated rainfall time series are then generated and analyzed for each region. Standardized rainfall anomalies of the observations and the simulated data are highly correlated over the northern, western, northeastern, central, and southwestern regions, while a weak correlation is found over the border regions of the country. The dominant modes of rainfall variability are identified using REOF, while time–frequency variations of different dominant modes are described by wavelet analysis. The first leading patterns of rainfall and upper wind (averaged between 100 and 300 hPa) are highly correlated and exhibit similar features between simulation and observations over the northern, western, southwestern, and eastern regions of Ethiopia. The second loading pattern of rainfall and the first loading pattern of low-level wind (averaged between 850 and 1,000 hPa) exhibit a dipole structure across the southwestern and northeastern regions of the country. The dominant signals in the first rotated principal component (RPC) of rainfall and upper level wind fields show a period of 4–5 and 2–3 years, while the dominant signals in the second RPC show a period of 2–3 years at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations of significant RPCs across gauge, gridded, and model rainfall fields with that of low and upper level winds show the presence of a significant relationship (correlation exceeding ～0.6). Overall, the RegCM4 shows a good performance in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over Ethiopia.     

Role of thermocline–SST coupling in the evolution of IOD events and their regional impacts

The evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline (represented by 20 °C isotherm depth, D20) in the east equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years is studied for the period of 50 years from 1958 to 2007. A new IOD index based on combined anomalies of surface winds, D20 and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean is defined to identify strong and weak IOD events. It is found that the evolution of strong IOD events is driven by ocean dynamics in the form of thermocline–SST coupling and is strongly interactive with the atmosphere, whereas the weak IOD events are mere response to surface winds without such dynamical coupling. The easterly wind anomalies extend up to the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WIO) during strong IOD years and support enhanced EIO air–sea interactions. On the other hand, the evolution of zonal wind anomalies is weak during the weak IOD years. Thermocline–SST coupling is robust in both EIO and WIO during strong IOD years, which is primarily responsible for the enhanced SST gradient, strong enough to establish anomalous Walker circulation within the Indian Ocean. The strong convection over the WIO associated with the Indian Ocean Walker cell triggers a secondary cell with subsidence over the African landmass. This double cell structure over the equatorial Indian Ocean is not reported before. Such double cell structure is not evident in weak IOD years and instead the convection over WIO extends up to African landmass. These are well supported by the spatial pattern of anomalous precipitable water during strong and weak IOD years. Strengthening of monsoon flow and local Hadley cell associated with strong IOD events enhances precipitation over the Indian subcontinent, whereas weak IOD years have less impact on the Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall. Analysis reveals that the EIO thermocline index and combined index could be potential predictors for the central Indian rainfall during summer.     

The impact of the assimilation of scatterometer winds on surface wind and wave forecasts

Recent work has demonstrated that surface marine winds from the Bureau of Meteorology's operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems are typically underestimated by 5 to 10%. This is likely to cause significant bias in modelled wave fields that are forced by these winds. A simple statistical adjustment of the wind components is shown to reduce the observed bias in Significant Wave Height considerably. The impact of increasing the vertical resolution of the NWP model and assimilating scatterometer data into the model is assessed by comparing the resulting forecast wind and waves to observations. It is found that, in general, the inclusion of scatterometer observations improves the accuracy of the surface wind forecasts. However, most of the improvement is shown to arise from the increased number of vertical levels in the atmospheric model, rather than directly from the use of the observations. When the wave model is forced with surface winds from the NWP model that includes scatterometer data, it is found that the scatterometer assimilation does not reduce the systematic bias in surface wave forecasts, but that the random errors are reduced.     

Impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite meteorological observations on the numerical simulation of a Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone of November 2008 near Tamilnadu using WRF model

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction of a severe cyclonic storm that formed in the Bay of Bengal during November 2008 with the four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) model was used to study the structure, evolution, and intensification of the storm. Five sets of numerical simulations were performed using the WRF. In the first one, called Control run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the remaining experiments available observations were used to obtain an improved analysis and FDDA grid nudging was performed for a pre-forecast period of 24 h. The second simulation (FDDAALL) was performed with all the data of the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds, conventional surface, and upper air meteorological observations. QSCAT wind alone was used in the third simulation (FDDAQSCAT), the SSM/I wind alone in the fourth (FDDASSMI) and the conventional observations alone in the fifth (FDDAAWS). The FDDAALL with assimilation of all observations, produced sea level pressure pattern closely agreeing with the analysis. Examination of various parameters indicated that the Control run over predicted the intensity of the storm with large error in its track and landfall position. The assimilation experiment with QSCAT winds performed marginally better than the one with SSM/I winds due to better representation of surface wind vectors. The FDDAALL outperformed all the simulations for the intensity, movement, and rainfall associated with the storm. Results suggest that the combination of land-based surface, upper air observations along with satellite winds for assimilation produced better prediction than the assimilation with individual data sets.     

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981–2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land–ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.     

广丰局地极端大风的雷达观测与成因分析

利用常规天气资料、自动站资料、江西WebGIS雷达拼图、风廓线雷达等资料,对2020年5月9日发生在江西省上饶市广丰区局地极端大风天气的回波演变特征和形成机理进行分析。结果表明：(1)广丰区国家气象观测站出现的35.5 m·s^-1极端大风,为该站建站以来的历史极值;(2)江西高空具有明显的高层辐散,配合高空槽、低层较强辐合和上干冷下暖湿的层结条件,为风暴发展提供了良好的动力条件;(3)导致广丰区极端大风天气的是A、B单体回波合并为超级单体回波后又发展成弓状回波结构所致;(4)江西东部走廊对大风的影响十分明显;极端大风过境时,具有气压上升,降水增大,风向突变,风速巨变,温度和露点下降等特征;(5)风廓线雷达上1 000 m以上低空突然风向逆转,风速突增是出现地面大风的信号。     

庐山雨凇积冰日数变化特征及其与海气场关系

利用江西省气象信息中心提供的1970-2016年逐日庐山站电线积冰、NOAA重构延长的逐月海表温度(SST)及NCEP再分析风场等资料,采用线性趋势分析、Man-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析、合成分析等方法,研究了庐山雨凇积冰日数的变化特征及其与海气场的关系,结果表明:1)庐山雨凇积冰基本发生在当年11月至次年3月。2)雨凇积冰日数总体呈显著下降趋势,且在1981年和2001年分别存在一显著突变,即1970-1980年庐山雨凇积冰日数异常偏多,1981-2001年庐山雨凇积冰均值基本接近常年,2001-2005年庐山雨凇又异常偏少。3)庐山雨凇积冰日数存在2~4年、6~8年及20年左右的振荡周期,2~4年周期变化在20世纪70年代、80年代末到90年代末及2005年以后振荡显著。4)庐山雨凇积冰异常偏多年代,前期410月整个热带太平洋海温异常偏低,同期113月庐山受贝加尔湖异常反气旋东南侧东北气流和来自东太平洋偏南气流的共同影响,有利于出现雨凇积冰。