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Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh Mohammad Sazjini Mohsen Shahaky Fatemeh Zahedi Tajrishi Leila Khanmohammadi 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):357-369
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region. 相似文献
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Hing‐Ho Tsang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(2):283-303
This paper proposes a promising seismic isolation method particularly suitable for developing countries, which makes use of rubber–soil mixtures. Apart from reducing the level of shaking in the horizontal direction, the distinctive advantage of the proposed method is that it can also significantly reduce the shaking level of vertical ground motion, to which an increasing attention has been paid in the earthquake engineering community. On the other hand, the use of scrap tires as the rubber material can provide an alternative way to consume the huge stockpile of scrap tires all over the world. Moreover, the low cost of this proposed seismic protection scheme can greatly benefit those developing countries where resources and technology are not adequate for earthquake mitigation with well‐developed, yet expensive, techniques. The proposed method has been demonstrated through a series of numerical simulations and a parametric study has also been carried out. Lastly, five important issues regarding the concept and feasibility have been discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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本文提出地震工作分区分类指导概念,根据震情、人口、经济特点和地震监测预报工作基础划分出重点监视防御区和非重点监视防御区,认为建立减灾体系,进行短临预报追踪、决策,进行震害预测,作好震前减灾准备,开展减灾教育,编制应急方案,系重点防御区工作的主要内容。同时指出非重点监视防御区也应根据各自的特点做好正常的地震监测和防震减灾建设。 相似文献
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本文从昆明地区的历史地震、震害以及地震地质条件等方面,论述了昆明地区的地震危险不仅来自小江地震带,昆明地区本身也存在发生较强地震的发震条件。与1985年墨西哥地震的震害特征对比,昆明地区未来遭受地震破坏时,也极可能出现震害重复性及砂土液化问题。建议对昆明地区的地震危险及震害预测等问题进行详细研究,以作为制定城市抗震防灾规划的重要依据。 相似文献
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云南地区地震灾情特点 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文分析了有记载以来发生在云南的一百多次破坏性地震,其中包括七十年代发生在通海、昭通、龙陵三次七级以上地震的灾情,概述了云南地区地震灾害的一般性特征和地方性特征,为减轻地震灾害对策研究参考。 相似文献
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A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2
Helen Crowley Miriam Colombi Barbara Borzi Marta Faravelli Mauro Onida Manuel Lopez Diego Polli Fabrizio Meroni Rui Pinho 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):149-180
National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within
a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of
a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure
data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for
seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The
aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of
the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
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Reduction of earthquake disasters 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The article summarizes the researches on mitigating earthquake disasters of the past four years in China. The studyof earthquake disasters′ quantification shows that the losses increase remarkably when population concentrates inurban area and social wealth increase. The article also summarizes some new trends of studying earthquake disas-ters′ mitigation, which are from seismic hazard to seismic risk, from engineering disaster to social disaster andintroduces the community-centered approach. 相似文献
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王健 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(3):274-279
IntroductionIt is an important approach to research on earthquake phenomena, an elemental portion of seismology, for understanding seismic activities. Aim of seismic pattern procession is to research spatial-temporal distribution of epicenters and generalize saliently seismic characteristics, to explore the regularities of seismicity and earthquake mechanism. People acquaint earthquake phenomena gradually with development of observation technique. Initially we could only feel and record destru… 相似文献
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本文通过1995年日本阪神大地震的震灾分析,提出了我国防震减灾工作应汲取的一些经验教训。作者建议加强地震前兆观测和群测群防工作,重视地震区的地质调查和工程抗震工作,研究开拓新方法,进行综合分析预报,是大限度地减轻地震灾害。 相似文献
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通过对我国地震台网观测资料以及地震活动特征的分析,给出了处理中小地震活动性图象的网格点密集值计算方法.该方法综合考虑一定时空及震级范围内地震的数量和震中分布这两方面因素,并特别强调了计算参量的选取应充分考虑资料精度的影响.应用该方法得到的地震活动性图象能够准确、合理地反映地震活动特征并具有较好的稳定性.经该方法处理的图象是对地震活动性进行定量分析的基础,在地震趋势分析、中长期地震预测以及防震减灾等方面有很好的应用前景. 相似文献
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在收集、整理和编译国外有关论坛和研讨会资料的基础上,给出了目前国际风险科学研究的动态,综述了地震灾害风险评估和减轻地震易损性方面的研究进展,介绍了目前有关国家的地震灾害风险减轻的理论研究和减灾计划与行动。 相似文献
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Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard and Pattern Recognition Techniques: Time-Dependent Scenarios for North-Eastern Italy 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. Peresan E. Zuccolo F. Vaccari A. Gorshkov G. F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(3-4):583-607
An integrated neo-deterministic approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed that combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space?Ctime identification of impending strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of seismic ground motion. The integrated approach allows for a time-dependent definition of the seismic input, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions. The scenarios of expected ground motion, associated with the alarmed areas, are defined by means of full waveform modeling. A set of neo-deterministic scenarios of ground motion is defined at regional and local scales, thus providing a prioritization tool for timely preparedness and mitigation actions. Constraints about the space and time of occurrence of the impending strong earthquakes are provided by three formally defined and globally tested algorithms, which have been developed according to a pattern recognition scheme. Two algorithms, namely CN and M8, are routinely used for intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions, while a third algorithm allows for the identification of the areas prone to large events. These independent procedures have been combined to better constrain the alarmed area. The pattern recognition of earthquake-prone areas does not belong to the family of earthquake prediction algorithms since it does not provide any information about the time of occurrence of the expected earthquakes. Nevertheless, it can be considered as the termless zero-approximation, which restrains the alerted areas (e.g. defined by CN or M8) to the more precise potential location of large events. Italy is the only region of moderate seismic activity where the two different prediction algorithms, CN and M8S (i.e. a spatially stabilized variant of M8), are applied simultaneously and a real-time test of predictions, for earthquakes with magnitude larger than a given threshold (namely 5.4 and 5.6 for CN algorithm, and 5.5 for M8S algorithm) has been ongoing since 2003. The application of the CN to the Adriatic region, which is relevant for seismic hazard assessment in the northeastern part of the Italian territory, is also discussed. Examples of neo-deterministic scenarios are provided, at regional and local scale and for the cities of Trieste and Nimis (Friuli Venezia Giulia region), where the knowledge of the local geological conditions permitted a detailed evaluation of the expected ground motion. 相似文献
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The Himalayan region is one of the major seismic areas in the world. However, similar to many other seismically active locations, there are substantial numbers of unreinforced masonry(URM) buildings; the majority of which have not been designed for seismic loads. Past seismic events have shown that such buildings are highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Retrofitting of these URM buildings is an important concern in earthquake mitigation programs. Most government school buildings in rural areas of northern India are constructed of unreinforced masonry. These school buildings are socially important structures and serve as a crucial resource for rehabilitation during any disaster. The effectiveness of ferrocement(FC) to create a URM-FC composite is described in this study by estimating the performance and fragility of a URM school building before and after a retrofit. Analytical models, based on the equivalent frame method, are developed and used for nonlinear static analysis to estimate the enhancement in capacity. The capacity enhancement due to retrofitting is presented in terms of the maximum PGA sustained and damage probabilities at the expected level of earthquake hazard. 相似文献
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Bartolome C. Bautista 《中国地震研究》2002,16(3):236-242
It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system.The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transfeered from one agency to another during this same period of time.At present,the mandate of conducting seismic observatins in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS),In 2000,through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA),the Philippine Seismic netowrk was upgraded to a digital system.As a result,a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country,Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing.and data acquisition and processing are now automated.Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations,The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches,Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies.Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilitstic and deterministic approaches,seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations,paleoseismology and active faults mapping ,and identification of liquefaction-prone,landslide-prone nd tsunami-affected areas.The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases,While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level ,PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a micriolevel.For Metro Manila,first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture,ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed.Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets.The elements at risk such as population,lifelines,and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners,civil defense officials,policy-makers and engineers.The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed.In addition,a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments identification of elements at risk durin times of strong earthquakes 相似文献
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采用多因子综合概率法估计了乌鲁木齐市区及矿区的地震危险性。根据地震地质、地球物理场,地震活动性的研究,划分了潜在震源区,确定了震源区的地震活动性参数。应用以结构可靠度理论为基础的震损概率法,预测了乌鲁木齐的地震灾害。提出了减灾对策。 相似文献