美国在南海及周边地区的军事权力增长及军事存在演变

海洋历来是世界大国角逐的主要战场,南海因其突出的地缘战略价值也不例外。本研究借助军事权力评估模型,刻画美国在南海军事权力的增长态势,明晰美国在南海及周边地区军事存在的演变特征。结果表明：①2010—2019年,美国在南海的军事权力呈现出阶段性递增态势,可划分为2010—2016年奥巴马政府推出亚太战略时期的波动上升,以及2017—2019年特朗普政府推出印太战略时期的迅速提升两个阶段;②美国在南海及周边地区的军事存在显著增强,包括不断完善以环南海军事基地群和南海前沿军事基地群为核心的军事基地部署,加强引导双边联合军演向多边联合军演转变,着重强调“航行自由”行动的海上实战性检验以及持续强化军事侦察和情报收集的立体化网络体系构建。     

Estimation of the potential supply of U.S. oil by life cycle and learning models

Two methods of estimating potential U.S. oil supply are reported: life cycle analysis of updated (1987) oil production data, and an analysis based on learning curve modeling of discovery rates. Based on these analyses, potential U.S. (lower 48 plus Alaska) oil supply (ultimate recoverable oil) is estimated to be 222 billion barrels. A rough inference of the economic reference for this potential oil supply is an oil price of about $20/bbl (1989 dollars).     

Econometric and learning curve estimation of U.S. potential oil supply

This study employs (1) a simple econometric model to generate a time series of drilling footage to the year 2040 and (2) learning models to estimate the oil reserve additions from that drilling, given scenarios of oil price and projected U.S. population. Reserve additions are estimated separately for the lower 48 states and Alaska regions by estimating separate drilling footage and learning models for each region. Generally, the estimates of potential supply from undiscovered oil fields and from extensions of known fields are more optimistic than recent estimates by others. For a $1989 price of about $20/barrel (bbl), which is similar to recent prices, the potential supply of oil is estimated to be approximately 60.7 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 54.3 and 67.1 billion bbl. For a price of $25.50/bbl, potential supply is estimated to be approximately 82 billion bbl, with 95-percent confidence bounds of 74.5 and 89.5 billion bbl. Although estimates of potential oil supply for the entire United States are more optimistic than other recent estimates, the part of that supply estimated to be forthcoming from Alaska is smaller than other recent estimates: 2.3 and 3.3 billion bbl for prices of about $20 and $25.50 per barrel, respectively. Thus, reserve additions from the lower 48 states through development drilling and through improved recovery and production technologies will become increasingly important to future U.S. oil supply.     

Geographies of U.S. Police Militarization and the Role of the 1033 Program

Concerns about police militarization have become an important public policy issue since the aggressive police response to the 2014 protests in Ferguson, Missouri, where police officers used military-style equipment to confront protestors. This event was a stark visual reminder that many U.S. police departments have used federal programs to acquire surplus military equipment, including weapons, armored vehicles, and body armor. We explore the geographies and histories of one the most important programs, called 1033, which supplies police with military equipment under the rationale of prosecuting the War on Drugs. We show that the legal blurring of the police and the military has been ongoing for decades at the national scale but this has resulted in an uneven landscape of police militarization at the county scale. We also investigate one of the most common global arguments for why police become militarized, which is the presence of Special Weapons and Tactics-style paramilitary teams, finding little support for that claim. More geographic inquiry is needed to understand the trajectories, causes, and consequences of police militarization.     

RATIONALIZATION AND DECONCENTRATION OF THE U.S. CONTAINER PORT SYSTEM

The recent development of intermodal transportation and the relaxation of U.S. transport regulations have encouraged ocean carriers to rationalize their port schedules. Container shipping is therefore believed to concentrate shipping at a few large ports. Port traffic analysis, using the Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient, reveals, nevertheless, that the structure of the U.S. port system is actually becoming less concentrated. The challenge of secondary ports and changes in the transportation system explain this deconcentration.     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

Geography in Alaska: Holding the Standards High

Abstract

In 1992, the State of Alaska Department of Education embarked on a standards-writing process as part of its Alaska 2000 reform effort. Supported by a Frameworks Grant from the U.S. Department of Education, standards were written in geography, government/civics, and history during 1993 and 1994. This article highlights an extensive statewide public consensus process used to generate the Alaska 2000 Geography Standards, which were modeled after Geography for Life: National Geographic Standards 1994.     

Greening U.S. National Parks: Expanding Traditional Roles to Address Climate Change

The U.S. National Park Service has embarked on a new campaign to address climate change. This directive includes new programs to encourage visitors to change their behaviors once they return home. By becoming involved in issues that go beyond park boundaries, these changes mark a shift in how the National Park Service fulfills its mission. This article explores how these efforts evolved and the possible implications to the visitors being exposed to a new message. Visitors were surveyed in Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska. The results revealed that the majority of those surveyed support these new efforts by the National Park Service.     

Public attitudes and policies toward mineral resources on the brink of the 21st century

In this issue, we feature an article by W. David Menzie, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Dr. Menzie is a leading expert on quantitative mineral-resource assessment. He has made significant contributions to quantitative assessment methodologies through the development of spatial mineral deposit density models, grade and tonnage models, and the design of metrics for describing mineral deposit occurrences. He has also studied the geology and mineral resources of the Circle quadrangle, Alaska. Dr. Menzie earned a B.S. degree in geology from Dickinson College, an M.S. in geology, an M.A. in statistics, and a Ph.D. in Geology from the Pennsylvania State University.     

JAMSTEC-IARC international collaboration enhancing understanding of the Arctic climate system

Collaborations amongst researchers from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan and the International Arctic research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), U.S., have been on-going since 1998 and resulted in a great number and magnitude of accomplishments that could not have been achieved without this close partnership. The Arctic represents an important region for Japan, the U.S. and the world, and many opportunities and challenges press for immediate understanding to enable wise decisions and policy making. We have many common interests and our countries face many common problems and goals. Addressing the tremendous scientific challenges of the Arctic requires such massive investment of manpower and resources that sharing efforts, data and working together on expeditions are in our mutual best interests.This issue presents a compilation of selected results on recent analyses conducted in the five-year (2009–2014) research term related to observational studies, model development and remote sensing applications of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent marginal seas, and the surrounding terrestrial regions. All of these studies are intended to provide a better understanding of how individual components and processes interact to form a complex and dynamic arctic system. Through these collaborations, Japanese and UAF Arctic researchers can achieve our goals of developing a quantitative understanding of the Arctic System.     

Wind erosion from military training lands in the Mojave Desert, California, U.S.A.

Military training activities reduce vegetation cover, disturb crusts, and degrade soil aggregates, making the land more vulnerable to wind erosion. The objective of this study was to quantify wind erosion rates for typical conditions at the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center, Twentynine Palms, CA, U.S.A. Five Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) sampler stations were installed at each of five sites. Each BSNE station consisted of five BSNE samplers with the lowest sampler at 0·05 m and the highest sampler at 1·0 m above the soil surface. Once a month, sediment was collected from the samplers for analysis. Occurrence of saltating soil aggregates was recorded every hour using Sensits, one at each site. The site with the most erosion had a sediment discharge of 311 kg m⁻¹ over a period of 17 months. Other sites eroded much less because of significant rock cover or the presence of a crust. Hourly sediment discharge was estimated combining hourly Sensit count and monthly sediment discharge measured using BSNE samplers. More simultaneously measured data are needed to better characterize the relationship between these two and reconstruct a detailed time-series of wind erosion. This measured time-series can then be used for comparison with simulation results from process-based wind erosion models such as the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), once it has been adapted to the unique aspects of military lands.     

20世纪50年代前美国对南海的地缘认知演变

19世纪末20世纪初,美国成为世界第一大经济体,亟须开辟海外新市场。为了争夺当时被认为是潜在的“最大的世界市场”,美国侵占西班牙在南海东岸的殖民地菲律宾,将其作为进入中国市场的据点,这是美国对南海地缘的最初认知。在以后的30多年时间里,美国都没有染指南海,直到日本侵略东南亚。日本把东南亚纳入“大东亚共荣圈”,利用南海地缘优势攻击美军,使南海首次呈现重要的地缘战略价值。南海地缘的新变化促使美国重新认知南海。此后,随着“边缘地带论”的兴起,美国越发重视南海的地缘战略价值,并谋求为自己的国家利益服务。进入20世纪50年代,亚太形成了截然对立的以中国为首的社会主义阵营和以美国为首的资本主义阵营。遏制共产主义在亚太扩张成为美国推行霸权战略的总方针。这直接影响美国对南海的地缘战略认知,利用南海的地缘战略价值围堵遏制中国就成为美国对华政策的必然选项。     

前苏联铁路网的形成、发展和布局

前苏联是世界上铁路运输利用率最高的国家。本文从其铁路发展的背景条件出发，分析了铁路成为前苏联最主要运输方式的原因，并进一步探讨了前苏联铁路网的建设、发展和分布特点，对我国正在进行的大规模铁路建设有一定借鉴意义。     

REINTERPRETING THE WASHITA BATTLEFIELD NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE*

Geographers have long attempted to interpret sacred and symbolic landscapes as representative of the ideals of individuals, communities, and cultures. This article assesses the changing historical and contemporary interpretations of the Washita Battlefield National Historic Site and gauges the impact of these conflicting viewpoints. The Washita Valley in western Oklahoma was the location of a November 1868 engagement between U.S. military forces commanded by George Custer and the Cheyenne camp of Black Kettle. Since that date, non‐native narratives have dominated Washita interpretation. Today, plans are being developed to emphasize Cheyenne viewpoints of the Washita and to alter the commemorative landscape of the site in order to better present a balanced historical narrative to visitors. Since 1868 three themes have dominated interpretation of the Washita: conflict, indifference, and memorialization.     

THE IDEOLOGY OF EMPIRE IN NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE'S COVERAGE OF THE PHILIPPINES, 1898–1908

ABSTRACT. Between 1898 and 1908 the National Geographic Magazine reported copiously on the territorial acquisition and U.S. colonial administration of the Philippines after the Spanish-American War. The pages of the magazine provide an intriguing window on connections between the emergence of geography as an organized profession and the expanding sphere of U.S. control of overseas territories. The overall picture reveals a shift from bold calls for direct economic exploitation of the natural resources and labor power of the Philippine Islands to more platitudinous justifications for U.S. control, based on moral responsibility and the ostensibly objective imperatives of “scientific” development.     

美国华盛顿州港口系统的开发及其对我国的启示

本文在分析70年代以来美国华盛顿州港口系统开发的特征、措施及其效果基础上，总结出华盛顿州港口系统抓住亚太地区经济腾飞的良机，统一规划沿海各港口群区的地位、功能和作用，大力发展集装箱多式联运等经验，均可作为发展我国沿海港口系统的借鉴。     

论军事旅游资源的开发利用

本文论述了军事旅游资源开发利用的重要意义、原则、分类及其特征和发展方向。认为军事旅游资源丰富多彩，只要开发利用得当，其旅游市场前景十分广阔。目前我国军事旅游资源利用尚处于初始阶段，有着巨大的发展潜力，值得旅游部门深化挖掘。     

Bangladeshi American Response to the 1998 Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): An Assessment*

Following the devastating flood in 1998, the U.S. government proposed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) to the Bangladesh government. Accepting the 1998 SOFA would have allowed entry of U.S. troops in Bangladesh without passports or visas and without requiring declaration of military hardware. This would have facilitated American forces support for relief operations and rehabilitation of disaster victims in the shortest possible time. Unfortunately, the Bangladesh government rejected the U.S. terms outlined in the 1998 proposal. A sample survey was conducted among Bangladeshi Americans to examine their opinions regarding the 1998 SOFA. Survey data reveals that slightly over 58 percent of the respondents supported signing the SOFA. Reasons for their support or opposition to the U.S. proposal are also presented. Statistical analyses suggest that whether respondents have studied or are currently studying in the United States emerged as the most significant factor associated with approval or disapproval of the 1998 SOFA. Implications of the study findings are also discussed.     

美国对外直接投资的经验及其对中国企业跨国经营的启示

本文论述了美国对外直接投资产业结构变化与国内经济变化的互动关系、对外直接投资的产业选择和区域战略的演变及现状特点，并针对我国企业跨国经营的现状提出了立足亚太、放眼世界；兼顾资源导向和市场导向的对外投资战略。