Modelling tide–surge interaction effects using finite volume and finite element models of the Irish Sea

An unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, covering the same domain and using topography and open boundary forcing that are identical to a previous validated uniform grid finite difference model of the region, is used to compare the performance of a finite volume (FV) and a finite element (FE) model of the area in determining tide–surge interaction in the region. Initial calculations show that although qualitatively both models give comparable tidal solutions in the region, comparison with observations shows that the FV model tends to under-estimate tidal amplitudes and hence background tidal friction in the eastern Irish Sea. Storm surge elevations in the eastern Irish Sea due to westerly, northerly and southerly uniform wind stresses computed with the FV model tend to be slightly higher than those computed with the FE model, due to differences in background tidal friction. However, both models showed comparable non-linear tide–surge interaction effects for all wind directions, suggesting that they can reproduce the extensive tide–surge interaction processes that occur in the eastern Irish Sea. Following on from this model comparison study, the physical processes contributing to surge generation and tide–surge interaction in the region are examined. Calculations are performed with uniform wind stresses from a range of directions, and the balance of various terms in the hydrodynamic equations is examined. A detailed comparison of the spatial variability of time series of non-linear bottom friction and non-linear momentum advection terms at six adjacent nodes at two locations in water depths of 20 and 6 m showed some spatial variability from one node to another. This suggests that even in the near coastal region, where water depths are of the order of 6 m and the mesh is fine (of order 0.5 km), there is significant spatial variability in the non-linear terms. In addition, distributions of maximum bed stress due to tides and wind forcing in nearshore regions show appreciable spatial variability. This suggests that intensive measurement campaigns and very high-resolution mesh models are required to validate and reproduce the non-linear processes that occur in these regions and to predict extreme bed stresses that can give rise to sediment movement. High-resolution meshes will also be required in pollution transport problems.     

Application of a finite element model (TELEMAC) to computing the wind induced response of the Irish Sea

Initially a brief overview of the problem of computing the wind-induced circulation on the west coast of Britain is reviewed together with storm surge modelling. To date this work has primarily been performed with finite difference models. However, here new work is presented using a finite element model with a range of mesh refinements in shallow water regions to examine the influence of mesh resolution upon the wind-induced circulation off the west coast of Britain. Steady state current fields are computed for uniform westerly and southerly winds and compared with a uniform grid (of order 7 km) finite difference model solution. Calculations show that in deep water regions away from the coastal influence, the large-scale circulation features in the finite element solution are in good agreement with those found in the finite difference model. This suggests that they can be adequately resolved on a 7 km mesh. In the nearshore region and within estuaries a significantly finer mesh is required, with the variable mesh finite element model showing significant small scale variability in the nearshore area. Refining the mesh in the Mersey and using an accurate topographic data set, shows that although the larger scale features in the estuary can be resolved in the coarser mesh model, accurate topography is required to model their exact location. In addition smaller scale features are found that were not resolved in the coarser mesh models. Due to the effects of “wetting and drying” and the importance of non-linear processes in shallow regions difficulties occurred in de-tiding the full solution in order to determine the wind forced residual. Determining the wind forced solution in shallow water from a calculation in which wind and tidal forcing are included poses problems as to how to “de-tide” the solution in such a highly non-linear region. An approach based upon the harmonic analysis of the total solution, rather than subtracting a “tide only” solution is shown to be most effective and has implications for storm surge prediction.General and specific conclusions on the importance of highly accurate bathymetry, good mesh resolution and de-tiding method upon the accuracy of the wind forced solution in nearshore regions are summarized in the final part of the paper. The implications for storm surge prediction together with suggestions for future research to enhance the accuracy of storm surge prediction, namely “the way forward” are given at the end of the paper.     

An intercomparison between finite difference and finite element (TELEMAC) approaches to modelling west coast of Britain tides

A finite element model (namely TELEMAC) with a range of mesh refinements and assumptions of coastal water depths is used to determine an optimal mesh for computing the M ₂ tide in a region of significant geographical extent. The region adopted is the west coast of Britain covering the Irish and Celtic Seas. The nature of the spatially varying topography and tidal distribution, together with a comprehensive set of measurements and existing accurate finite difference model makes it ideal for such a study. Calculations show that a water-depth dependent criterion for determining element size gives an optimal distribution over the majority of the region. However, local refinements in narrow channels such as the North Channel and Bristol Channel are required. Although the specification of a zero coastal water depth, leads to a fine near coastal grid, this does not yield the most accurate solution. In addition the computational cost is high. In practice in a large area model the use of a non-zero coastal water depth yields optimum accuracy at minimal computational cost. However, calculations show that accuracy is critically dependent upon nearshore water depths. Comparison with the finite difference model shows that the bias in elevation amplitude in the finite difference solution is removed in the finite element calculation.     

Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.     

Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900–2006

A recently extended and spatially rich English Channel sea level dataset has been used to evaluate changes in extreme still water levels throughout the 20th century. Sea level records from 18 tide gauges have been rigorously checked for errors and split into mean sea level, tidal and non-tidal components. These components and the interaction between surge and tide have been analysed separately for significant trends before determining changes in extreme sea level. Mean sea level is rising at 0.8–2.3 mm/year, depending on location. There is a small increase (0.1–0.3 mm/year) in the annual mean high water of astronomical tidal origin, relative to mean sea level, and an increase (0.2–0.6 mm/year) in annual mean tidal range. There is considerable intra- and inter-decadal variability in surge intensity with the strongest intensity in the late 1950s. Storm surges show a statistically significant weak negative correlation to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index throughout the Channel and a stronger significant positive correlation at the boundary with the southern North Sea. Tide–surge interactions increase eastward along the English Channel, but no significant long-term changes in the distribution of tide–surge interaction are evident. In conclusion, extreme sea levels increased at all of the 18 sites, but at rates not statistically different from that observed in mean sea level.     

Non-hydrostatic and non-linear contributions to the internal wave energy flux in sill regions

A three-dimensional non-linear, non-hydrostatic model in cross-sectional form is used to determine the factors influencing the relative importance of the linear, non-hydrostatic and non-linear contributions to the internal wave energy flux in sill regions due to tidal forcing. The importance of the free surface elevation term is also considered. Idealised topography representing the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive, the site of a recent measurement programme, is used. Calculations show that the non-linear terms in the energy flux become increasingly important as the sill Froude Number (F _s) increases and the sill aspect ratio is increased. The vertical profile of the stratification, in particular its value close to the sill crest where internal waves are generated, has a significant influence on unsteady lee wave and mixed tidal–lee wave generation and the non-linear contribution to the energy flux. Calculations show that as F _s increases, the energy flux due to the non-linear and non-hydrostatic terms increases more rapidly than the linear term. The importance of the non-linear terms in the energy flux also increases as the sill aspect ratio is increased. Increasing the buoyancy frequency reduces the contribution of the non-hydrostatic and non-linear terms to the total energy flux. Also, as the buoyancy frequency is increased, this reduces unsteady lee wave and mixed tidal–lee wave generation. In essence, these calculations show that the energy flux due to the non-hydrostatic and non-linear terms is appreciable in sill regions.     

Flood threat anomaly for the low coastal areas of the English Channel based on analysis of recent characteristic flood occurrences

In the English Channel, extreme surge heights did not occur at the time of extreme high tides during the last decades and maximum recorded heights usually do not exceed the maximum astronomical tide by more than a few decimetres. To understand whether this lack of coincidence may be due to specific phenomena or only to chance, we have studied hourly tide records lasting a few decades from nine English and nine French stations as well as air pressure and wind data from nearby meteorological observatories. Among the case studies of moderate flooding at several coastal stations occurring during spring tide, we have selected those of 24–25/10/1980 and of 30/01/1983 to 02/02/1983 as representative of a normal situation without any special chance. The third case study 26–28/02/1990 was potentially more dangerous because of the storm intensity and duration; however, by chance, surge peaks occurred near the low tide. Finally, the propagation of the surge peak of 15–16/10/1987, which reached the maximum height recorded during all the instrumental period at several stations, has been followed all along the English Channel, using the hourly records of 12 tide-gauge stations and of 16 meteorological stations. The surge peak of this great storm, probably the strongest in the last two centuries, occurred everywhere at high tide and spread with the same velocity of the tidal wave. Fortunately, no major flooding occurred because it was the day after a neap tide. In conclusion, some good fortune has saved the low coastal areas of the English Channel from major floods during the last decades. However, the occurrence of the peak of a strong storm surge arriving near the western entrance of the Channel at the time of a great astronomical high tide is a possible event that could be devastating along both sides of the Channel coasts. Main parts of this paper have been presented orally in June 2005 at the joint INQUA–IGCP 495 Meeting “Dunkerque 2005” and in February 2006 at the ASLO-TOS-AGU “Ocean Sciences Meeting” (Honolulu, HI).     

Storm surge computations in estuarine and near-coastal regions: the Mersey estuary and Irish Sea area

An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance. This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation, this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained.     

Storm surge computations for the west coast of Britain using a finite element model (TELEMAC)

An unstructured mesh finite element model of the sea region off the west coast of Britain is used to examine the storm surge event of November 1977. This period is chosen because accurate meteorological data to drive the model and coastal observations for validation purposes are available. In addition, previous published results from a coarse-grid (resolution 7 km) finite difference model of the region and high-resolution (1 km) limited area (namely eastern Irish Sea) model are available for comparison purposes. To enable a “like with like” comparison to be made, the finite element model covers the same domain and has the same meteorological forcing as these earlier finite difference models. In addition, the mesh is based on an identical set of water depths. Calculations show that the finite element model can reproduce both the “external” and “internal” components of the surge in the region. This shows that the “far field” (external) component of the surge can accurately propagate through the irregular mesh, and the model responds accurately, without over- or under-damping, to local wind forcing. Calculations show significant temporal and spatial variability in the surge in close agreement with that found in earlier finite difference calculations. In addition, root mean square errors between computed and observed surge are comparable to those found in previous finite different calculations. The ability to vary the mesh in nearshore regions reveals appreciable small-scale variability that was not found in the previous finite difference solutions. However, the requirement to perform a “like with like” comparison using the same water depths means that the full potential of the unstructured grid model to improve resolution in the nearshore region is inhibited. This is clearly evident in the Mersey estuary region where a higher resolution unstructured mesh model, forced with uniform winds, had shown high topographic variability due to small-scale variations in topography that are not resolved here. Despite the lack of high resolution in the nearshore region, the model showed results that were consistent with the previous storm surge models of the region. Calculations suggest that to improve on these earlier results, a finer nearshore mesh is required based upon accurate nearshore topography.     

Influence of sea surface wind wave turbulence upon wind-induced circulation, tide–surge interaction and bed stress

A three-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, with high resolution in the coastal regions, is used to investigate the role of wind wave turbulence and wind and tide forced currents in producing maximum bed stress in the eastern Irish Sea. The spatial distribution of the maximum bed stress, which is important in sediment transport problems, is determined, together with how it is modified by the direction of wind forced currents, tide–surge interaction and a surface source of wind wave turbulence associated with wave breaking. Initial calculations show that to first order the distribution of maximum bed stress is determined by the tide. However, since maximum sediment transport occurs at times of episodic events, such as storm surges, their effects upon maximum bed stresses are examined for the case of strong northerly, southerly and westerly wind forcing. Calculations show that due to tide–surge interaction both the tidal distribution and the surge are modified by non-linear effects. Consequently, the magnitude and spatial distribution of maximum bed stress during major wind events depends upon wind direction. In addition calculations show that a surface source of turbulence due to wind wave breaking in shallow water can influence the maximum bed stress. In turn, this influences the wind forced flow and hence the movement of suspended sediment. Calculations of the spatial variability of maximum bed stress indicate the level of measurements required for model validation.     

Recent evolution of surge-related events and assessment of coastal flooding risk on the eastern coasts of the English Channel

This paper is based on statistical analysis of hourly tide measurements for some 285 equivalent full years from the stations of Weymouth, Bournemouth, Portsmouth, Newhaven, Dover and Sheerness in the UK, and of Cherbourg, Le Havre, Dieppe, Boulogne, Calais and Dunkirk in France. For each tidal value, surge heights have been determined and correlated with hourly or three-hourly wind and air pressure data from nearby meteorological stations. Major surges in the area are generally produced by storms associated with wind from north-west or south-west that tend to push oceanic water into the Channel. Recent medium-term climate evolution does not seem to increase the flooding risk at French stations, where surge-related winds tend to decrease in frequency and speed (Cherbourg, Dieppe and Boulogne) or show little change (Le Havre). However, the long-term risk of flooding will increase through the loss in land elevation due to a continuation of the local relative sea-level rise, especially if this effect will be enhanced by an acceleration in the global sea-level rise predicted by climatic models. The northern side of the Channel (Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth) is mainly exposed to southerly winds that show variable trends. It is also apparently affected by strong subsidence trends during the last two decades. If lasting, such trends can only increase long-term flooding risk. The flooding risk has not increased near the eastern end of the Channel. The duration of significant cyclonic events tends to decrease near Cherbourg but tends to increase near Weymouth, with no conclusive trends in other stations (Portsmouth, Calais and Dunkirk), where extreme surges may occur also in relatively high-air-pressure situations. In conclusion, medium-term coastal flooding risk seems to increase especially at Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth, and also, but less so, at Le Havre and Sheerness. In addition, few extreme surges occurred during the last decades at the time of spring high tide, which would seem to be a fortunate coincidence or, in some cases, an effect of tide–surge interaction. The risk of occurrence of less favourable random events in the near future is therefore of concern, and flood potential would greatly increase if the global sea-level rise expected in the near future is also considered.     

A model study of tidal distributions in the Celtic and Irish Sea regions determined with finite volume and finite element models

An unstructured mesh tidal model of the west coast of Britain, covering the Celtic Sea and Irish Sea is used to compare tidal distributions computed with finite element (FE) and finite volume (FV) models. Both models cover an identical region, use the same mesh, and have topography and tidal boundary forcing from a finite difference model that can reproduce the tides in the region. By this means, solutions from both models can be compared without any bias towards one model or another. Two-dimensional calculations show that for a given friction coefficient, there is more damping in the FV model than the FE model. As bottom friction coefficient is reduced, the two models show comparable changes in tidal distributions. In terms of mesh resolution, calculations show that for the M₂ tide, the mesh is sufficiently fine to yield an accurate solution over the whole domain. However, in terms of higher harmonics of the tide, in particular the M₆ component, its small-scale variability in near-shore regions which is comparable to the mesh of the model, suggests that the mesh resolution is insufficient in the near-coastal regions. Even with a finer mesh in these areas, without detailed bottom topography and a spatial varying friction depending on bed types and bed forms, which is not available, model skill would probably not be improved. In addition in the near-shore region, as shown in the literature, the solution is sensitive to the form of the wetting/drying algorithm used in the model. Calculations with a 3D version of the FV model show that for a given value of k, damping is reduced compared to the 2D version due to the differences in bed stress formulation, with the 3D model yielding an accurate tidal distribution over the region.     

Effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea

A two-dimensional coupled tide-surge model was used to investigate the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surges along the coast of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. In order to estimate the impacts of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations, Typhoon 7203 was assumed to arrive at 12 different times, with all other conditions remaining constant. This allowed simulation of tide and total water levels for 12 separate cases. Numerical simulation results for Yingkou, Huludao, Shijiusuo, and Lianyungang tidal stations were analyzed. Model results showed wide variations in storm surge elevations across the 12 cases. The largest difference between 12 extreme storm surge elevation values was of up to 58 cm and occurred at Yingkou tidal station. The results indicate that the effects of tide-surge interactions on storm surge elevations are very significant. It is therefore essential that these are taken into account when predicting storm surge elevations.     

Application of an unstructured mesh model to storm surge propagation in the Mersey estuary region of the Irish Sea

The storm surge period of 13–16 November 1977 when there was a major positive surge followed by a negative surge in the Irish Sea is investigated using a two-dimensional unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain. The model accounts for tidal and external surge forcing across its open boundaries which are situated in the Celtic Sea and off the west coast of Scotland. Although this period has been examined previously using a uniform finite-difference model, and a finite element model, neither of these could resolve the Mersey estuary which is the focus of the present study. By using a finite element model with very high mesh resolution within the Mersey, the spatial variability of surge elevations and currents within the Mersey to rapidly changing surge dynamics can be examined. The mesh in the model varies from about 7 km in deep water, to the order of 100 m in the Mersey, with the largest mesh length reaching 17 km in deep offshore regions, and smallest of order 26 m occurring in shallow coastal regions of the Mersey estuary. The model accounts for wetting/drying which occurs in shallow water coastal areas. Calculations showed that during the positive surge period, the amplitude and speed of propagation of the surge was largest in the deep water channels. This gave rise to significant spatial variability of surge elevations and currents within the estuary. As wind stresses decreased over the Irish Sea, a negative surge occurred over Liverpool Bay and at the entrance to the Mersey. However, within the Mersey there was a local positive surge which continued to propagate down the estuary. This clearly showed that although the large scale response of the Irish Sea to changing wind fields occurred rapidly, the response in the Mersey was much slower. These calculations with a west coast variable mesh model that included a high-resolution representation of the Mersey revealed for the first time how elevations and currents within the Mersey responded to Irish Sea surges that rapidly changed from positive to negative.     

Internal tide modelling and the influence of wind effects

Initially the development of shallow sea three-dimensional barotropic tidal models is briefly reviewed with a view to determining what were the key measurements that allowed progress in this field and rigorous model validation. Subsequently this is extended to a brief review of baroclinic tidal models to try to determine a “way forward” for baroclinic model development. The difficulty of high spatial variability, and wind influence are identified as possibly important issues that must be considered in validating baroclinic tidal models. These are examined using a three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ internal tide on the shelf edge region off the west coast of Scotland. The model is used to investigate the spatial variability of the M₂ internal tide, and associated turbulence energy and mixing in the region. Initial calculations are performed with tidal forcing only, with subsequent calculations briefly examining how the tidal distribution is modified by down-welling and up-welling favourable winds. Calculations with tidal forcing only, show that there is significant spatial variability in the internal tide and associated mixing in the region. In addition, these are influenced by wind effects which may have to be taken into account in any model validation exercise. The paper ends by discussing the comprehensive nature of data sets that need to be collected to validate internal tidal models to the same level currently attained with three dimensional barotropic tidal models.     

Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system, the regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system (ROMS)

In this study, we compare simulated storm surges run on the two-dimensional operational storm surge/tide forecast system (regional tide/storm surge model (RTSM), based on Princeton ocean model) of the Korean Meteorological Administration and the three-dimensional regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), using observational data from 30 coastal tidal stations of three typhoons that struck Korea in 2007. A maximum positive bias of 6.8 cm was found for Typhoon Manyi predicted by ROMS, while a maximum negative bias of −7.4 cm was shown for Typhoon Nari predicted by RTSM. For all three typhoons, the total averaged root mean square error was 10 cm for the two models. Although the statistical results for the storm surge comparison between the observations and RTSM predictions were better than those for ROMS, with the exception of Typhoon Nari, the spatial and temporal variations of ROMS were larger than those of RTSM.     

On the effect of subinertial phenomena on the internal lee waves generation in the Strait of Gibraltar

The generation of internal lee waves (ILW) in the Strait of Gibraltar takes place in the main sill where the tidal flow interacts with a submarine obstacle. The tidal flow is perturbed by subinertial phenomena of different nature summarized in the subinertial currents that can inhibit the ILW generation. The authors present an attempt to randomize the problem by the introduction of a Gaussian noise in the Taylor–Goldstein equation. The random number sets are generated from the statistical distribution of the previously isolated random part of the subinertial currents from experimental data taken in the area during the Gibraltar Experiment 94–96. The effect of the noise is translated into a continuous spreading of the spectrum around the solution of the noise-free problem. A stability analysis is carried out in order to determine the single neutral modes of oscillations and the phase space is divided onto regions of stability and instability as a function of the inflowing subinertial current. The methodology and results could be useful for the design and timing of oceanographic surveys in straits where the ILWs occur.     

Nonlinear interactions between gravity waves and tides

In this study, we present the nonlinear interactions between gravity waves (GWs) and tides by using the 2D numerical model for the nonlinear propagation of GWs in the compressible atmosphere. During the propagation in the tidal background, GWs become instable in three regions, that is z = 75―85 km, z = 90―110 km and z = 115―130 km. The vertical wavelength firstly varies gradually from the initial 12 km to 27 km. Then the newly generated longer waves are gradually compressed. The longer and shorter waves occur in the regions where GWs propagate in the reverse and the same direction of the hori-zontal mean wind respectively. In addition, GWs can propagate above the main breaking region (90—110 km). During GWs propagation, not only the mean wind is accelerated, but also the amplitude of tide is amplified. Especially, after GWs become instable, this amplified effect to the tidal amplitude is much obvious.     

Multi-scale modeling of Puget Sound using an unstructured-grid coastal ocean model: from tide flats to estuaries and coastal waters

Water circulation in Puget Sound, a large complex estuary system in the Pacific Northwest coastal ocean of the United States, is governed by multiple spatially and temporally varying forcings from tides, atmosphere (wind, heating/cooling, precipitation/evaporation, pressure), and river inflows. In addition, the hydrodynamic response is affected strongly by geomorphic features, such as fjord-like bathymetry and complex shoreline features, resulting in many distinguishing characteristics in its main and sub-basins. To better understand the details of circulation features in Puget Sound and to assist with proposed nearshore restoration actions for improving water quality and the ecological health of Puget Sound, a high-resolution (around 50 m in estuaries and tide flats) hydrodynamic model for the entire Puget Sound was needed. Here, a three-dimensional circulation model of Puget Sound using an unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model is presented. The model was constructed with sufficient resolution in the nearshore region to address the complex coastline, multi-tidal channels, and tide flats. Model open boundaries were extended to the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the northern end of the Strait of Georgia to account for the influences of ocean water intrusion from the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Fraser River plume from the Strait of Georgia, respectively. Comparisons of model results, observed data, and associated error statistics for tidal elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity indicate that the model is capable of simulating the general circulation patterns on the scale of a large estuarine system as well as detailed hydrodynamics in the nearshore tide flats. Tidal characteristics, temperature/salinity stratification, mean circulation, and river plumes in estuaries with tide flats are discussed.     

Tidal circulation and energy dissipation in a shallow, sinuous estuary

The tidal dynamics in a pristine, mesotidal (>2 m range), marsh-dominated estuary are examined using moored and moving vessel field observations. Analysis focuses on the structure of the M ₂ tide that accounts for approximately 80% of the observed tidal energy, and indicates a transition in character from a near standing wave on the continental shelf to a more progressive wave within the estuary. A slight maximum in water level (WL) occurs in the estuary 10–20 km from the mouth. M ₂ WL amplitude decreases at 0.015 m/km landward of this point, implying head of tide approximately 75 km from the mouth. In contrast, tidal currents in the main channel 25 km inland are twice those at the estuary mouth. Analysis suggests the tidal character is consistent with a strongly convergent estuarine geometry controlling the tidal response in the estuary. First harmonic (M ₄) current amplitude follows the M ₂ WL distribution, peaking at mid-estuary, whereas M ₄ WL is greatest farther inland. The major axis current amplitude is strongly influenced by local bathymetry and topography. On most bends a momentum core shifts from the inside to outside of the bend moving seaward, similar to that seen in unidirectional river flow but with point bars shifted seaward of the bends. Dissipation rate estimates, based on changes in energy flux, are 0.18–1.65 W m⁻² or 40–175 μW kg^–1. A strong (0.1 m/s), depth-averaged residual flow is produced at the bends, which resembles flow around headlands, forming counter-rotating eddies that meet at the apex of the bends. A large sub-basin in the estuary exhibits remarkably different tidal characteristics and may be resonant at a harmonic of the M ₂ tide.