基于情景模拟的天津市滨海新区2020年暴雨内涝风险评估

基于多灾种复合动态风险评估理论,依据滨海新区2020年人口规划、土地利用规划以及社会经济发展计划,根据地面沉降和海平面上升预测结果设计了最不利、适中和最理想化三种情景;在此基础上,自行开发了基于GIS的洪水淹没区计算模块,模拟计算不同重现期暴雨内涝的淹没范围、淹没深度及淹没损失。结果表明:2020年,发生1 000 a一遇、200 a一遇和50 a一遇暴雨时,在最不利的情景一下:天津市滨海新区分别将有32.73%,29.34%和26.01%的土地不同程度受淹,受淹人口分别为338万、305万和264万,淹没损失分别达220.89亿元、181.39亿元和139.12亿元。     

21 世纪末珠江口深圳最高潮位重现期值预估

采用 P-III 适线拟合法分析赤湾验潮站建站以来的潮位资料,得出该站 1965―2014 年最高潮位的重现期值：其中 100 a 一遇最高潮位为 2.31 m,50 a 一遇最高潮位为 2.18 m。通过插值法分析 1965―2011 年赤湾站与北角/鰂鱼涌站的年最高潮位,得出两者存在显著相关关系,并据此后报出赤湾站近百年来 2 次最高潮位为 1962 年2.7 m 和 1937 年 2.34 m。。根据 IPCC AR5 中的 RCP2.6 方案,预估了 21 世纪末（2081―2100 年）赤湾最高潮位的重现期：100 a 最高潮位在全球海平面上升 0.24 m 的情况下为 2.55 m,在全球海平面上升 0.40 m 的情况下为 2.71m。并讨论了围海造地导致伶仃洋潮位上升率降低以及 0814 号台风“黑格比”对赤湾站增水的影响：赤湾北面西乡沿海地势特别低,当潮位≥1.40 m（珠基起算）时,就会发生海水倒灌现象。也就是说,未来海平面的上升将加大该区海水倒灌频率。通过分析台风过境时该站的潮位观测资料,得出 0814 号台风“黑格比”经过珠江口时赤湾站的最高潮位为增水 1.46 m。最后,重新修订了赤湾站最高潮位的重现期值,这不但能够提高该区域防台水位设计的准确性,还能为该海域的风暴潮预警预报提供参考依据。     

海平面上升风险中国大陆沿海地区人口与经济暴露度

基于全球潮汐和浪涌再分析数据集,利用数字高程模型在ArcGIS空间分析工具支持下,提取了中国大陆沿海11个省市海平面上升可能淹没范围,结合人口、经济、土地利用数据构建海平面上升风险暴露度评估模型,评估中国大陆沿海地区海平面上升风险的人口和经济暴露度。结果表明：① 海平面上升风险可能淹没范围主要集中在长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角和环渤海等滨海平原地区,其中可能淹没范围最大的是江苏、上海等长三角地区;土地利用类型中受影响最严重的为耕地,约占受影响总面积的65%,其次为建设用地;② 基于2015年人口、经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化（10 a一遇至1000 a一遇）,海平面上升风险影响的人口和经济总量逐渐增加;对海平面上升风险暴露度而言,广州是暴露度等级最高的城市,高暴露度等级的区域仍集中于长三角及苏北沿海、珠三角、环渤海地区;③ 基于5种共享社会经济路径预估的人口和经济统计数据,随着海平面上升水位值重现期的变化,2025年和2100年受影响的人口、经济总量在不同路径下均呈增长趋势,常规发展路径下受影响的人口和经济总量最大,局部或不一致发展路径和不均衡发展路径下受影响的人口、经济低于其他3种路径;从重现期角度看,10 a一遇至1000 a一遇海平面上升风险的人口、经济暴露度向高暴露度等级转移;对比2025和2100年两时段的人口、经济暴露度,2100年的暴露度等级整体低于2025年。     

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析

在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69~11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。     

被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析

根据海洋与水文行业标准和规范、IPCC-AR4（政府间气候变化专门委员会第4次评估报告）对21世纪海平面上升量预估值,文章收集珠江口历史潮位数据和特大风暴潮灾害实际损失资料,对若干涉及珠江口风暴潮灾害的文章或评估报告进行了分析讨论,认为有些论著高估了海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮潮灾的影响;并着重分析风暴潮灾害被高估的原因：1）采用了不适合珠江三角洲的洪灾损失评估方法和计算参数,如对AAL/GDP采用线性关系,以GDP及AAL/GDP的比值反推AAL（年均洪灾经济损失）,使得造成的灾害损失被高估;2）将海平面上升数值直接与重现期潮位简单叠加的评估方法不科学;3）对2100年全球海平面上升量的预估值取值缺乏依据;4）对历史最高潮位的取值可能偏高。     

1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征

搜集到1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮记录2119条,以此为基础,重建区域历史风暴潮发生的时间序列与空间分布。从年内分布情况看,苏沪浙地区历史风暴潮主要发生在6-10月,其中7-9月占80%,8月为全年最高值,占37%。68.56%的历史风暴潮发生在农历朔望日前后,其中发生在朔日前后（农历二十七至次月初四）的占35.57%,发生在望日前后（农历十三至十九）的占32.99%。小波分析结果显示：风暴潮年际变化时间序列存在54 a、30 a、17 a周期。历史风暴潮引起的海侵多发生在沿海地区,苏北地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达4 m高程,长三角地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达5 m高程,杭州湾沿岸、浙东沿海地区则分别达5 m和6 m高程。     

珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。     

基于GIS的辽河三角洲潜在海平面上升淹没损失评估

辽河三角洲是海平面上升的主要脆弱区。本文以GIS为平台 ,以盘锦市 1∶10 0 0 0 0地形图和土地利用图作为底图 ,结合社会经济统计数据 ,获得地面 1km× 1km范围高程值以及评估单元基础数据 ,并计算出在没有防护、不同潮位背景、海平面上升不同高度的条件下 ,辽河三角洲未来海平面上升将淹没的土地面积、受灾人口和经济损失、生态损失 ,以及不同土地利用类型的淹没面积及相应的经济价值。可为制定区域减灾防灾战略提供科学依据     

中国土地沙漠化经济损失评估

以1999年国家荒漠化监测数据为基准,采用灾害经济评价方法,20世纪末我国沙漠化造成的直接经济损失每年约为1 281.41亿元。其中,土地沙漠化造成资源损失 955.71亿元,占总损失的74.58%;对农牧业生产造成损失266.99亿元,占总损失的20.84%。研究表明,全国每年因土地沙漠化所造成的经济损失占当年全国GDP的1.41%,占我国土地沙漠化土地主要分布省区（内蒙古、甘肃、新疆、青海、宁夏、陕西）当年GDP的23.64%,相当于上述五省区1999年财政收入的3.60倍     

海平面上升的灾害效应研究--以江苏沿海低地为例

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,其灾害效应直接影响沿海地区社会经济的持续发展。文章运用地面沉降与绝对海面变化叠加法和潮位记录法,预测未来30年,50年和100年江苏沿海海平面将分别上升0.30 m,0.53 m和1.37 m。在此基础上,对不同海平面上升量引起的风暴潮灾害、海岸侵蚀、潮滩盐沼损失、涵闸破坏、洪涝灾害加剧和海堤工程受损等方面的灾害效应进行了定量分析,并对江苏沿海低地进行分区灾害预警,认为海平面上升后的灾害效应在江苏中部海积平原表现得最为严重,废黄河三角洲平原和长江三角洲平原中等,而海州湾海积平原最轻。     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

气候变化对中国滨海湿地的影响及对策

我国滨海湿地面临着持续退化和损失的风险,其中气候变化通过海平面上升、海水表层温度上升、风暴潮、海水入侵和海岸带侵袭,以及海洋酸碱度变化等一系列影响,导致了沿海湿地的退化与消失,制约了沿海地区的可持续发展。在总结中国湿地退化现状的基础上,分析了气候变化对中国湿地的影响,并从自发性适应和计划性适应两个方面探讨了潜在的滨海湿地气候变化适应性对策。认为将来可进一步加强对滨海湿地气候变化影响与响应机制的监测和研究,为制定相关政策和培养相关管理人员提供依据。     

An evolutionary model for sabkha development on the north coast of the UAE

The north coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) provides a typical example of coastal sabkha (supratidal flat) formation. Various stages of sabkha development can be recognized along this coast. This paper combines previous studies of sabkha environment with the results of field investigation of sabkha geomorphology, sedimentology, and stratigraphy on the north coast of UAE, to formulate a model of sabkha evolution.The model has six stages in the evolution of coastal sabkhas following the early Holocene sea-level rise. These are: Stage 1: sea-level rise results in the formation of an embayment. Stage 2: involves subsequent spit development and progradation across the bay as a result of sediment availability. Stage 3: coincident with spit evolution is the development of a khor (tidal inlet) with or without mangrove. Channel depth of Khors varies from 4 to 6 m. Stage 4: sediment accumulates in the khor reducing the khor depth, turning it into a lagoon. There are three sub-stages of the lagoon stage. (a) With lagoon depths of 1–2 m, (b) with lagoon depths 0.5 m or less, (c) when the lagoon floor is exposed at low tide. Stage 5: is sabkha formation; development occurs in two sub-stages. In the first the sabkha is immature and flooded during rain storms and spring tides (0.1 m above present sea-level). Later the sabkha is only flooded after rainstorms, when it reaches an elevation of about 1 m or more above present sea-level. Stage 6: in sabkha development is the coastal plain, which results when large sabkhas are linked together.     

Uncertain seas: probabilistic modeling of future coastal flood zones

ABSTRACT

Future sea-level rise will likely expand the inland extent of storm surge inundation and, in turn, increase the vulnerability of the people, properties and economies of coastal communities. Modeling future storm surge inundation enhanced by sea-level rise uses numerous data sources with inherent uncertainties. There is uncertainty in (1) hydrodynamic storm surge models, (2) future sea-level rise projections, and (3) topographic digital elevation models representing the height of the coastal land surface. This study implemented a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate the uncertainties of these data sources and model the future 1% flood zone extent in the Tottenville neighborhood of New York City (NYC) in a probabilistic, geographical information science (GIS) framework. Generated spatiotemporal statistical products indicate a range of possible future flood zone extents that results from the uncertainties of the data sources and from the terrain itself. Small changes in the modeled land and water heights within the estimated uncertainties of the data sources results in larger uncertainty in the future flood zone extent in low-lying areas with smaller terrain slope. An interactive web map, UncertainSeas.com, visualizes these statistical products and can inform coastal management policies to reduce the vulnerability of Tottenville, NYC to future coastal inundation.     

香港现代海平面变化及其影响

潮汐站资料分析表明香港地区海平面每年以１ｍｍ的速度上升。然而，在沿海填海地区，由于受长期地面沉陷的影响，下沉速度超过上升速度，导致海平面明显相对上升。受大规模地面沉陷的影响。填海区在台风暴潮期间极易受海水浸淹。为了有助于未来海岸的开发，建议利用现有技术水平的测量方法，包括卫星测高和激光测距方法等，对填海区进行长期连续的地面沉陷监测。对下沉问题提出预警，以便采取措施，如修筑海提，建抽水站等，以抵御海     

An evolutionary model for sabkha development on the north coast of the UAE

The north coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) provides a typical example of coastal sabkha (supratidal flat) formation. Various stages of sabkha development can be recognized along this coast. This paper combines previous studies of sabkha environment with the results of field investigation of sabkha geomorphology, sedimentology, and stratigraphy on the north coast of UAE, to formulate a model of sabkha evolution.The model has six stages in the evolution of coastal sabkhas following the early Holocene sea-level rise. These are: Stage 1: sea-level rise results in the formation of an embayment. Stage 2: involves subsequent spit development and progradation across the bay as a result of sediment availability. Stage 3: coincident with spit evolution is the development of a khor (tidal inlet) with or without mangrove. Channel depth of Khors varies from 4 to 6 m. Stage 4: sediment accumulates in the khor reducing the khor depth, turning it into a lagoon. There are three sub-stages of the lagoon stage. (a) With lagoon depths of 1–2 m, (b) with lagoon depths 0.5 m or less, (c) when the lagoon floor is exposed at low tide. Stage 5: is sabkha formation; development occurs in two sub-stages. In the first the sabkha is immature and flooded during rain storms and spring tides (0.1 m above present sea-level). Later the sabkha is only flooded after rainstorms, when it reaches an elevation of about 1 m or more above present sea-level. Stage 6: in sabkha development is the coastal plain, which results when large sabkhas are linked together.     

The Holocene development of Kushu Lake on Rebun Island in Hokkaido, Japan

Diatom assemblages and sulfur content in sediments were analyzed to clarify changes in the sedimentary environment of Kushu Lake, a coastal lake on Rebun Island in Hokkaido, Japan. Salinity variations were assessed by means of a diatom-based index of paleosalinity and the sedimentary sulfur content. This paper discusses the Holocene development of the lake, in relation to Holocene relative sea-level change. For paleoenvironmental interpretation of the lake development, the rationale of the threshold method (Anundsen et al., 1994) was applied.At ca. 8000 yr BP, a coastal embayment (paleo-Kushu Bay) resulted from marine ingression. The threshold elevation at the mouth of the paleo-Kushu Bay kept pace with the rising sea-level, resulting in its enclosure at the culmination of Holocene marine transgression (ca. 6500–5000 yr BP). From predicted relative sea-level at ca. 6000 yr BP for Rebun Island (Nakada et al., 1991), the threshold may have been at least above –3 to –5 m altitude. A freshwater lake environment with strongly anoxic bottom conditions may have occurred from ca. 5500 to 5100 yr BP. After an important episode of marine ingression, the lake was isolated completely from the open sea at ca. 4900 yr BP. The diatom record suggests that the maximum lacustrine extent occurred at ca. 4900–3100 yr BP. Thereafter, water depth decreased at the lake margins.In Kushu Lake, the threshold elevation, due to a build-up of a coastal barrier, prevents us from determining the amplitude of sea-level changes, even though the age of isolation contacts corresponds to periods of regression and climatic deterioration. In spite of isostatic subsidence, the effective protection provided by the well-developed barrier did not allow registration of any relative sea-level fluctuations since its isolation.     

RATES OF SEA LEVEL RISE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND: A SPACE-TIME CONCEPT

An application of trend surface analysis is presented within a space-time framework to predict the rates of sea-level rise for the southern New England coastal region since 10,000 years B.P. Based on the predicted second order trend surface, 65% of the variance is explained and is significant at the 0.01 level. The results of the analysis also indicate those local areas that have experienced the largest amount of spatial and temporal variation from the regional mean rate of rise since 10,000 years B.P.     

A. G. Plint

Abstract Recent improvements in biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic control in the Eocene sediments of the Hampshire Basin prompted direct comparison of depositional sequences in outcrop with those predicted by the latest and most detailed Exxon coastal onlap chart. This study focused on the upper two cycles of the London Clay Formation, the Bracklesham Group and the Barton Formation, comprising nine depositional sequences, each a few 10s of metres thick. The sediments were divided into three basic facies associations: marine, estuarine and alluvial. Depositional sequences invariably rest on a regional erosion surface cut during sea-level lowstand. The lower part of each sequence consists typically of 'estuarine' sediments (including tidal channel, lagoon, tidal flat and marsh deposits), laid down under brackish conditions during the early stages of sea-level rise. Estuarine deposits are typically erosively overlain by marine shoreface or shelf deposits; the eroded, pebble-strewn contact marks the passage of the marine shoreface. Marine deposits may be erosively overlain by alluvial sediments that record coastal progradation in response to stable or slowly falling sea level. Magnetostratigraphy, in the form of truncated or absent magnetozones provides supporting evidence for significant erosion during periods of lowstand. Every sequence can be matched to the Exxon coastal onlap chart, with one exception, which, on biostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic evidence has been shown to be absent from the Hampshire Basin. The Exxon chart suggests that in this exceptional instance, coastal onlap was insufficient to effect marine deposition in the Hampshire Basin.     

The impact of DEM data source on prediction of flooding and erosion risk due to sea-level rise

Digital elevation model (DEM) elevation accuracy and spatial resolution are typically considered before a given DEM is used for the assessment of coastal flooding, sea-level rise or erosion risk. However, limitations of DEMs arising from their original data source can often be overlooked during DEM selection. Global elevation error statistics provided by DEM data suppliers can provide a useful indicator of actual DEM error, but these statistics can understate elevation errors occurring outside of idealised ground reference areas. The characteristic limitations of a range of DEM sources that may be used for the assessment of coastal inundation and erosion risk are tested using high-resolution photogrammetric, low- and medium-resolution global positioning system (GPS)-derived and very high-resolution terrestrial laser scanning point data sets. Errors detected in a high-resolution photogrammetric DEM are found to be substantially beyond quoted error, demonstrating the degree to which quoted DEM accuracy can understate local DEM error and highlighting the extent to which spatial resolution can fail to provide a reliable indicator of DEM accuracy. Superior accuracies and inundation prediction results are achieved based on much lower-resolution GPS points confirming conclusions drawn in the case of the photogrammetric DEM data. This suggests a scope for the use of GPS-derived DEMs in preference to the photogrammetric DEM data in large-scale risk-mapping studies. DEM accuracies and superior representation of micro-topography achieved using high-resolution terrestrial laser scan data confirm its advantages for the prediction of subtle inundation and erosion risk. However, the requirement for data fusion of GPS to remove ground-vegetation error highlighted limitations for the use of side-scan laser scan data in densely vegetated areas.