基于CA模型的佛山市建设用地动态变化研究

元胞自动机具有能模拟复杂动态系统的强大能力,本文采用了多约束条件的元胞自动机模型,以广东佛山市2000年、2006年和2012年建设用地的变化为例,从自然、社会经济发展等方面综合考虑选取了高程、坡度、人口密度、道路交通、水系等对城市建设用地发展变化起决定作用的诸多因子,利用马尔科夫概率矩阵计算2000年～2006年建设用地变化,推算建设用地转移总量。结合Logistic-CA模型和决策树-CA模型,预测模拟了2012年的建设用地分布并与实际相比较,分析其整体精度和误差来源。结果显示基于CA模型的建设用地动态发展模拟具有良好的效果,可以为城市的发展规划,过程演变提供虚拟的实验手段和科学依据。     

Integrating Remote Sensing Techniques,Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Stochastic Models for Monitoring Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes in the Northern Coastal Region of Nayarit,Mexico

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in northern Nayarit, Mexico were estimated using post-classification change detection methods and a Markov chain model. Three thematic maps were generated by classifying Landsat images from 1973, 1900, and 2000, which were then overlaid to generate three change-detection matrices to assess the intensity and direction of changes. Between 25% and 30% of the region displayed LULC changes, attributable to a stochastic behavior that can be modeled with a first-order Markov chain. The steady-state distribution estimates indicate that the LULC patterns in the region have not yet reached equilibrium and predict the expansion of the agricultural boundaries.     

Resolution vs. image quality in pre-tsunami imagery used for tsunami impact models in Aceh,Indonesia

Land cover roughness coefficients (LCRs) have been used in multivariate spatial models to test the mitigation potential of coastal vegetation to reduce impacts of the 2004 tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia. Previously, a Landsat 2002 satellite imagery was employed to derive land cover maps, which were then combined with vegetation characteristics, i.e., stand height, stem diameter and planting density to obtain LCRs. The present study tested LCRs extracted from 2003 and 2004 Landsat (30 m) images as well as a combination of 2003 and 2004 higher spatial resolution SPOT (10 m) imagery, while keeping the previous vegetation characteristics. Transects along the coast were used to extract land cover, whenever availability and visibility allowed. These new LCRs applied in previously developed tsunami impact models on wave outreach, casualties and damages confirmed previous findings regarding distance to the shoreline as a main factor reducing tsunami impacts. Nevertheless, the models using the new LCRs did not perform better than the original one. Particularly casualties models using 2002 LCRs performed better (δAIC > 2) than the more recent Landsat and SPOT counterparts. Cloud cover at image acquisition for Landsat and low area coverage for SPOT images decreased statistical predictive power (fewer observations). Due to the large spatial heterogeneity of tsunami characteristics as well as topographic and land-use features, it was more important to cover a larger area. Nevertheless, if more land cover classes would be referenced and high resolution imagery with low cloud cover would be available, the full benefits of higher spatial resolution imagery used to extract more precise land use roughness coefficients could be exploited.     

Exploring land use policy scenarios with the use of a cellular automata-based model: urban sprawl containment and sustainable development in Thessaloniki

This study addresses the issue of urban sprawl through the application of a cellular automata (CA)-based model in the area of Thessaloniki, Greece. The model integrates a multiple regression model at the regional level with a CA model at the local level. New urban land is allocated in a disaggregated field of land units (cells) taking into account a wide range of data. Particular emphasis is placed on the way zoning regulations and land availability data are inserted into the model, so that alternative land use policy scenarios could be examined. Thessaloniki, a typical Mediterranean city, is used as a case study. The model is used to compare two scenarios of urban growth up to year 2030; the first one assuming a continuation of existing trends, whereas the second one assuming the enactment of various land use zoning regulations in order to contain urban sprawl.     

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.     

A novel approach for predicting the spatial patterns of urban expansion by combining the chi-squared automatic integration detection decision tree,Markov chain and cellular automata models in GIS

Urban development is a continuous and dynamic spatio-temporal phenomenon associated with economic developments and growing populations. To understand urban expansion, it is important to establish models that can simulate urbanization process and its deriving factors behaviours, monitor deriving forces interactions and predict spatio-temporally probable future urban growth patterns explicitly. In this research, therefore, we presented a hybrid model that integrates the chi-squared automatic integration detection decision tree (CHAID-DT), Markov chain (MC) and cellular automata (CA) models to analyse, simulate and predict future urban expansions in Tripoli, Libya in 2020 and 2025. First, CHAID-DT model was applied to investigate the contributions of urban factors to the expansion process, to explore their interactions and to provide future urban probability map; second, MC model was employed to estimate the future demand of urban land; third, CA model was used to allocate estimated urban land quantity on the probability map to present future projected land use map. Three satellite images of the study area were obtained from the periods of 1984, 2002 and 2010 to extract land use maps and urban expansion data. We validated the model with two methods, namely, receiver operating characteristic and the kappa statistic index of agreement. Results confirmed that the proposed hybrid model could be employed in urban expansion modelling. The applied hybrid model overcame the individual shortcomings of each model and explicitly described urban expansion dynamics, as well as the spatio-temporal patterns involved.     

Urban growth monitoring and projection using remote sensing and geographic information systems: a case study in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area,Minnesota

This study investigates urban growth dynamics from regional to local scales in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area and demonstrates how metropolitan growth can be driven by policies. Urban change from 1975 to 2006 was detected using Landsat imagery. Future growth in 2030 was modelled based on two scenarios with or without regional development policies incorporated. City- or township-level growth was examined by a zonal analysis. Results show urban grew 126,700 ha from 1975 to 2006. The Markov-Cellular Automata model projected at least another 67,000 ha of urban growth from 2006 to 2030. When regional development policies were incorporated, homogeneous and compact growth patterns were predicted along the urban periphery; however, actual land supplies within the cities along the urban edge are facing challenges to accommodate the projected growth as large portions of suitable lands are located outside of the 2030 Municipal Urban Service Area boundary.     

Land Cover and Vegetation Change in the Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve Analyzed with Landsat Thematic Mapper Data

Abstract

Coastal wetland is a major part of wetlands in the world. Land cover and vegetation mapping in a deltaic lowland environment is complicated by the rapid and significant changes of geomorphic forms. Remote sensing provides an important tool for coastal land cover classification and landscape analysis. The study site in this paper is the Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve (YRDNR) at the Yellow River mouth in Shangdong province, China. Yellow River Delta is one of the fastest growing deltas in the world. YRDNR was listed as a national level nature reserve in 1992. The objectives of this paper are two fold: to study the land cover status of YRDNR, and to examine the land cover change since it was declared as a nature reserve. Land cover and vegetation mapping in YRDNR was developed using multi‐spectral Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery acquired in 1995. Land cover and landscape characteristics were analyzed with the help of ancillary GIS. Land use investigation data in 1991 were used for comparison with Landsat classification map. Our results show that YRDNR has experienced significant landscape change and environmental improvement after 1992.     

土地覆被变化对陆地碳循环的影响—以黄河三角洲河口地区为例

土地利用/土地覆被变化是全球变化研究的重点，是影响陆地碳循环的一个重要因子。该文对黄河三角洲河口地区1992年和1996年9月份的TM影像进行非监督分类，做出该地区土地覆被类型分布图，以及估算土地覆被类型的变化面积，计算结果显示1992年该研究地区植被碳库和土壤碳库分别为11.43×10     

Assessing the potential of integrated Landsat 8 thermal bands,with the traditional reflective bands and derived vegetation indices in classifying urban landscapes

Reliable and up-to-date urban land cover information is valuable in urban planning and policy development. Due to the increasing demand for reliable land cover information there has been a growing need for robust methods and datasets to improve the classification accuracy from remotely sensed imagery. This study sought to assess the potential of the newly launched Landsat 8 sensor’s thermal bands and derived vegetation indices in improving land cover classification in a complex urban landscape using the support vector machine classifier. This study compared the individual and combined performance of Landsat 8’s reflective, thermal bands and vegetation indices in classifying urban land use-land cover. The integration of Landsat 8 reflective bands, derived vegetation indices and thermal bands overall produced significantly higher accuracy classification results than using traditional bands as standalone (i.e. overall, user and producer accuracies). An overall accuracy above 89.33% and a kappa index of 0.86, significantly higher than the one obtained with the use of the traditional reflective bands as a standalone data-set and other analysis stages. On average, the results also indicate high producer and user accuracies (i.e. above 80%) for most of the classes with a McNemar’s Z score of 9.00 at 95% confidence interval showing significant improvement compared with classification using reflective bands as standalone. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the integration of the Landsat 8’s OLI and TIR data presents an invaluable potential for accurate and robust land cover classification in a complex urban landscape, especially in areas where the availability of high resolution datasets remains a challenge.     

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Urban Heat Island and Their Relationship with Land Cover Changes in Urbanization Process: A Case Study in Suzhou, China

One of the significant environmental consequences of urbanization is the urban heat island (UHI). In this paper, Landsat TM images of 1986 and 2004 were utilized to study the spatial and temporal variations of heat island and their relationships with land cover changes in Suzhou, a Chinese city which experienced rapid urbanization in past decades. Land cover classifications were derived to quantify urban expansions and brightness temperatures were computed from the TM thermal data to express the urban thermal environment. The spatial distributions of surface temperature indicated that heat islands had been largely broadened and showed good agreements with urban expansion. Temperature statistics of main land cover types showed that built-up and bare land had higher surface temperatures than natural land covers, implying the warming effect caused by the urbanization with natural landscape being replaced by urban areas. In addition, the spatial detail distributions of surface temperature were compared with the distribution of land cover by means of GIS buffer analysis. Results show remarkable show good correspondence between heat island variations with urban area expansions.     

基于遥感影像的土地动态变化监测

土地利用/覆盖变化是目前研究全球及区域环境的一个重要领域,在城镇化加速的今天,城镇的土地利用格局也发生了飞速的变化。本文通过其一研究区内的Landsat TM遥感影像进行处理,获取了2007~2016年10个时相土地利用/覆盖信息,通过不同的预测模型对监测到的数据进行处理及比较,根据相应的最优预测方法预测了2017~2019年南昌市各土地类型的数据,由此研究并探讨了南昌市土地利用/覆盖的时空格局变化。     

Using multi-date satellite imagery to monitor invasive grass species distribution in post-wildfire landscapes: An iterative,adaptable approach that employs open-source data and software

Among the most pressing concerns of land managers in post-wildfire landscapes are the establishment and spread of invasive species. Land managers need accurate maps of invasive species cover for targeted management post-disturbance that are easily transferable across space and time. In this study, we sought to develop an iterative, replicable methodology based on limited invasive species occurrence data, freely available remotely sensed data, and open source software to predict the distribution of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) in a post-wildfire landscape. We developed four species distribution models using eight spectral indices derived from five months of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data in 2014. These months corresponded to both cheatgrass growing period and time of field data collection in the study area. The four models were improved using an iterative approach in which a threshold for cover was established, and all models had high sensitivity values when tested on an independent dataset. We also quantified the area at highest risk for invasion in future seasons given 2014 distribution, topographic covariates, and seed dispersal limitations. These models demonstrate the effectiveness of using derived multi-date spectral indices as proxies for species occurrence on the landscape, the importance of selecting thresholds for invasive species cover to evaluate ecological risk in species distribution models, and the applicability of Landsat 8 OLI and the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling for targeted invasive species management.     

Modelling Changes in Land Cover Patterns in Mtunzini,South Africa Using Satellite Imagery

Land is the basic resource that is needed by man in order to survive: It provides humans with living space, nutrition and energy resources. The rapid growth of the human population, climate change and pollution on a catastrophic scale has caused the quality of land resources to be compromised. Remote sensing is a useful tool in land cover change detection providing information to decision makers. The aim of this study was to evaluate land cover changes in the Mtunzini area in South Africa over the past 18 years; determine why changes have occurred and predict land cover patterns for future years. In this study a supervised classification was used to detect land cover classes of the Mtunzini area from 1992 to 2009 using four Landsat images in the time series analysis. The supervised classification had an accuracy of 80.80 % which was used to model land cover changes. Commercial sugar cane and forest plantation classes increased throughout the time series. It was estimated in the modelling procedure that bushland (42.11 %) and bare soil (35 %) would be changed to commercial sugar cane. This is indicative of the expanding agriculture sector in Mtunzini. Natural vegetation is predicted to be disturbed: 18 % of bushland and 15.07 % of dense bush are expected to be replaced by rural dwellings. This is owing to a potential increase in the rural population and a reduced local economic growth. This study highlights the need for increased vigilance of the forestry industry and commercial sugar cane farms which may be encroaching on natural vegetation and livelihoods of local residents. Strategic planning and proper management of natural vegetation types is needed as these land cover types are decreasing rapidly.     

Changing landscape in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River from 1977 to 2005: Land use/land cover,vegetation cover changes estimated using multi-source satellite data

The eco-environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) in China has received much attention due to the construction of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. Land use/land cover changes (LUCC) are a major cause of ecological environmental changes. In this paper, the spatial landscape dynamics from 1978 to 2005 in this area are monitored and recent changes are analyzed, using the Landsat TM (MSS) images of 1978, 1988, 1995, 2000 and 2005. Vegetation cover fractions for a vegetation cover analysis are retrieved from MODIS/Terra imagery from 2000 to 2006, being the period before and after the rising water level of the reservoir. Several analytical indices have been used to analyze spatial and temporal changes. Results indicate that cropland, woodland, and grassland areas reduced continuously over the past 30 years, while river and built-up area increased by 2.79% and 4.45% from 2000 to 2005, respectively. The built-up area increased at the cost of decreased cropland, woodland and grassland. The vegetation cover fraction increased slightly. We conclude that significant changes in land use/land cover have occurred in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The main cause is a continuous economic and urban/rural development, followed by environmental management policies after construction of the Three Gorges Dam.     

Land cover mapping in the Upper Shire River catchment in Malawi using Landsat satellite data

Land cover mapping forms a reference base for resource managers in their decision-making processes to guide rural/urban growth and management of natural resources. The aim of this study was to map land cover dynamics within the Upper Shire River catchment, Malawi. The article promotes innovation of automated land cover mapping based on remote sensing information to generate data products that are both appropriate to, and usable within different scientific applications in developing countries such as Malawi. To determine land cover dynamics, 1989 and 2002 Landsat images were used. Image bands were combined in transformations and indices with physical meaning; together with spatial data, to enhance classification accuracy. A maximum likelihood classification for each image was computed for identification of land cover variables. The results showed that the combination of spatial and digital data enhanced classification accuracy and the ability to categorise land cover features, which are relatively inhomogeneous.     

Quantifying urban land cover change between 2001 and 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico region

We estimated urbanization rates (2001–2006) in the Gulf of Mexico region using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 and 2006 impervious surface products. An improved method was used to update the NLCD impervious surface product in 2006 and associated land cover transition between 2001 and 2006. Our estimation reveals that impervious surface increased 416 km² with a growth rate of 5.8% between 2001 and 2006. Approximately 1110.1 km² of non-urban lands were converted into urban land, resulting in a 3.2% increase in the region. Hay/pasture, woody wetland, and evergreen forest represented the three most common land cover classes that transitioned to urban. Among these land cover transitions, more than 50% of the urbanization occurred within 50 km of the coast. Our analysis shows that the close-to-coast land cover transition trend, especially within 10 km off the coast, potentially imposes substantial long-term impacts on regional landscape and ecological conditions.     

Integration of logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion

This research analyses the suburban expansion in the metropolitan area of Tehran, Iran. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Environmental and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were operationalised to create a probability surface of spatiotemporal states of built-up land use for the years 2006, 2016, and 2026. For validation, the model was evaluated by means of relative operating characteristic values for different sets of variables. The approach was calibrated for 2006 by cross comparing of actual and simulated land use maps. The achieved outcomes represent a match of 89% between simulated and actual maps of 2006, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. Thereafter, the calibrated hybrid approach was implemented for forthcoming years. Finally, future land use maps for 2016 and 2026 were predicted by means of this hybrid approach. The simulated maps illustrate a new wave of suburban development in the vicinity of Tehran at the western border of the metropolis during the next decades.     

Land cover classification using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager data in Beijing,China

The successful launch of Landsat 8 provides a new data source for monitoring land cover, which has the potential to significantly improve the characterization of the earth’s surface. To assess data performance, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data were first compared with Landsat 7 ETM + data using texture features as the indicators. Furthermore, the OLI data were investigated for land cover classification using the maximum likelihood and support vector machine classifiers in Beijing. The results indicated that (1) the OLI data quality was slightly better than the ETM + data quality in the visible bands, especially the near-infrared band of OLI the data, which had a clear improvement; clear improvement was not founded in the shortwave-infrared bands. Moreover, (2) OLI data had a satisfactory performance in terms of land cover classification. In summary, OLI data were a reliable data source for monitoring land cover and provided the continuity in the Landsat earth observation.     

Utility of image point cloud data towards generating enhanced multitemporal multisensor land cover maps

Multitemporal land cover classification over urban areas is challenging, especially when using heterogeneous data sources with variable quality attributes. A prominent challenge is that classes with similar spectral signatures (such as trees and grass) tend to be confused with one another. In this paper, we evaluate the efficacy of image point cloud (IPC) data combined with suitable Bayesian analysis based time-series rectification techniques to improve the classification accuracy in a multitemporal context. The proposed method uses hidden Markov models (HMMs) to rectify land covers that are initially classified by a random forest (RF) algorithm. This land cover classification method is tested using time series of remote sensing data from a heterogeneous and rapidly changing urban landscape (Kuopio city, Finland) observed from 2006 to 2014. The data consisted of aerial images (5 years), Landsat data (all 9 years) and airborne laser scanning data (1 year). The results of the study demonstrate that the addition of three-dimensional image point cloud data derived from aerial stereo images as predictor variables improved overall classification accuracy, around three percentage points. Additionally, HMM-based post processing reduces significantly the number of spurious year-to-year changes. Using a set of 240 validation points, we estimated that this step improved overall classification accuracy by around 3.0 percentage points, and up to 6 to 10 percentage points for some classes. The overall accuracy of the final product was 91% (kappa = 0.88). Our analysis shows that around 1.9% of the area around Kuopio city, representing a total area of approximately 0.61 km², experienced changes in land cover over the nine years considered.