Trends in Extremes of Surface Humidity, Temperature, and Summertime Heat Stress in China

l. IntroductionPrevious studies have shown climatological and seasonal surface temperature and humld-ity dlstributlons over China (Wang and Gaffen, 200l ) and evaluated trends in seasonal meansof several surface humidity variables, rainfall, temperatures, and apparent temPerature for thelast half century (Easterling et al., 2000, Zhai et al., 1999, Zhai and Eskridge, l997, Zhai andRen, l997, Wang and Gaffen, 200l). However, trends in local temperatures, and particularlytrends in extreme he…     

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past,present, and future

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

     

Temperature trends in England, 1698–1957

Summary Comparable figures representative of the mean temperature at inland places in Central England are provided for every month from 1698 to the end of 1957. These are based on the assemblage of a number of early and scattered records brought to modern standards and to centigrades. Diagrams are added for purposes of illustration and comparison with Holland and elsewhere in Europe.

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Zusamenfassung Es werden Vergleichszahlen für die Mitteltemperatur an Inlandstationen in Mittelengland für alle Monate von 1698 bis 1957 mitgeteilt; sie beruhen auf der Verarbeitung einer Anzahl älterer und vereinzelter Serien, die auf neuzeitlichen Stand und auf Zentigrade reduziert wurden. Zur Veranschaulichung und zum Vergleich mit holländischen und anderen europäischen Stationen sind Kurvendarstellungen beigefügt.

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Résumé Moyennes mensuelles de température de stations de l'Angleterre centrale, de la période 1698 à 1957, tirées de séries anciennes convenablement réduites et converties en degrés centigrades. Des représentations graphiques facilitent la comparaison avec les stations européennes.

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Numerical Weather Prediction in China in the New Century ——Progress, Problems and Prospects

This paper summarizes the recent progress of numerical weather prediction(NWP)research since the last review was published.The new generation NWP system named GRAPES(the Global and Regional Assimila- tion and Prediction System),which consists of variational or sequential data assimilation and nonhydrostatic prediction model with options of configuration for either global or regional domains,is briefly introduced, with stress on their scientific design and preliminary results during pre-operational implementation.In ad- dition to the development of GRAPES,the achievements in new methodologies of data assimilation,new improvements of model physics such as parameterization of clouds and planetary boundary layer,mesoscale ensemble prediction system and numerical prediction of air quality are presented.The scientific issues which should be emphasized for the future are discussed finally.     

Detection of trends in precipitation during 1960–2008 in Jiangxi province, southeast China

Changes in precipitation exert an enormous impact on human life, and it is of vital importance to study regular patterns of meteorological and hydrological events. In order to explore the changing spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation amounts, precipitation extremes and precipitation concentration in Jiangxi province in southeast China between 1960 and 2008, several precipitation indices series were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test in this study. Our results indicate remarkable differences among the stations with negative and positive precipitation trends at the annual, seasonal and monthly scales, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, August, winter and summer, while significant decreasing trends mostly are observed during October and autumn. For precipitation extremes, most precipitation indices suggest that both the intensity and the days of extreme precipitation are increasing; the mean precipitation amount, especially, on a wet day shows a significant positive trend. When it comes to precipitation concentration, the monthly rainfall heterogeneity shows an insignificant downward trend, while the contribution of the days with greatest rainfall displays an insignificant upward trend. Furthermore, the long-range persistence is detected for changing process of precipitation amount, extreme precipitation and precipitation concentration using the Rescaled Range Analysis.     

Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961–2011

By characterizing the patterns of temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 extreme temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold extremes significantly decreased but warm extremes significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to warm faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and winter, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, warming was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes warmed faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid warming trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated warming at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and winter, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature extremes across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.

     

Long-term variability of occurrence of precipitation forms in winter in Kraków, Poland

The paper discusses long-term change in snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation viewed in conjunction with air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter (December–February). In the study of contemporary climate change and its effect on the hydrological cycle it is useful to focus on winter precipitation forms. A 146-year secular observation series from Kraków, spanning the period 1863–2008, was used to extract data on the number of days with precipitation and on precipitation amount broken down by form. Statistically significant trends were found in total and mixed precipitation, but not in snowfall and rainfall. The climate warming effect has contributed to a material decrease in the snowfall to total winter precipitation ratio during the second half of the 20th c. The highest impact of air temperature was found in the wintertime variation in number of days with snowfall while the NAO had a significant influence on the frequency and amount of both rainfall and snowfall.     

Characteristics, loss and gain of atmospheric carbonyl compounds in winters of 2008–2010 in Pearl River Delta region, China

Formaldehyde (HCHO), acetaldehyde (CH₃CHO) and acetone (CH₃COCH₃) were measured at Wanqingsha (WQS) in south China during November-December 2008–2010. Carbonyl compound pollution characteristics under the influence of the financial crisis (FC) were studied. Atmospheric carbonyl compound concentrations in the 2008 and 2009 sampling periods were affected by the 2008 FC. The industrial downturn plus the high closing down number of the small enterprises with limited emission treatment during the FC played an important role in the reduction of the industry-related CH₃CHO and CH₃COCH₃. In 2010, the recovery of industrial activities occurred, but affected by traffic restriction enforcement in Guangzhou over the Asian Games period, HCHO concentration (daytime 7.59?±?2.59 μg m^?3) was lower than expectation. Carbonyl compounds in WQS site were highly influenced by regional pollution transport from different upwind urban cities and industrial districts in the north-northwest to northeast wind sector in winter. Also, the interaction of the winter monsoon with the warm ocean along the coastline as well as day and night boundary layer mixing height variation affected carbonyl compound concentrations in WQS. The daytime mean dry deposition losses of HCHO and CH₃CHO were first time model-estimated for 2009 and 2010. For loss of HCHO in the early afternoon, photolysis was the dominant sink, followed by dry deposition and removal by OH radical (?OH), while for CH₃CHO, dry deposition was dominant. For the gain of HCHO and CH₃CHO, the production rates during early afternoon in 2009 and 2010 were estimated by an indirect approach.     

Policy support,social capital,and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China

Increasingly severe drought has not only threatened food security but also resulted in massive socio-economic losses. In the face of increasingly serious drought conditions, the question of how to mitigate its impacts through appropriate measures has received great attention. The overall goal of this study is to examine the influence of policies and social capital on farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation measures against drought. The study is based on a large-scale household and village survey conducted in six provinces nationwide. The survey results show that 86% of rural households have taken adaptive measures to protect crop production against drought, most of which are non-engineering measures. In the case of non-engineering measures, changing agricultural production inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates are two popular options. A multivariate regression analysis reveals that government policy support against drought such as releasing early warning information and post-disaster services, technical assistance, financial and physical supports have significantly improved farmers’ ability to adapt to drought. However, since only 5% of villages benefited from such supports, the government in China still has significant room to implement these assistances. Moreover, having a higher level of social capital in a farm household significantly increases their adaptation capacity against drought. Therefore, the government should pay particular attention to the farming communities, and farmers within a community who have a low level of social capital. Finally, farmers’ ability to adapt to drought is also associated with the characteristics of their households and local communities. The results of this study also have implications for national adaptation plans for agriculture under climate change in other developing countries.     

Statistical characteristics,trends, and variability of rainfall in Shanxi province,China, during the period 1957–2019

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Under the background of global warming, an analysis of the trend and variability of rainfall time series on various timescales is very important for...     

Spaltprodukt-Radioaktivität in Niederschlägen,auf Gletscherflächen,in Gräsern und Tierorganen nach Messungen in verschiedenen Höhenlagen der Nordalpen in den Jahren 1957 bis 1960

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über Messungen der künstlichen Beta- und Gamma-Radioaktivität (Spaltproduktaktivität) in Niederschlägen, auf einer Gletscherfläche und in Gras- und Tierorganproben. Das Wesentliche der Untersuchung liegt nicht allein in der lückenlosen zeitlichen Erfassung aller dieser Größen seit 1957/58, sondern vor allem in der synchronen Bestimmung der Aktivitätswerte in Proben, die gleichzeitig in verschiedenen Höhenlagen gewonnen worden sind (Niederschlag, Grasaschen). Diesem Zwecke dient ein alpines Stationspaar mit relativ großem Höhenunterschied (1,1 km) bei kleinem Basisabstand (2,5 km). Die Sammlung von Gletschereisproben erfolgte in Höhen von etwa 2600 m NN. Zusätzlich zu den Bestimmungen der Gesamt-, Beta- und Gamma-Radioaktivität der Proben wurden chemisch-radiologische Isotopenanalysen ausgeführt.Aus dem Vergleich der in verschiedenen Höhen gewonnenen Proben ergibt sich, daß, während die spezifische Niederschlags-Radioaktivität auf dem letzten Kilometer Fallweg noch um im Mittel 20% ansteigt, die mittlere Zufuhr von Aktivität zum Boden an der Bergstation etwa gleich der an der Talstation (wegen unterschiedlicher Niederschlagsmengen) ist. Die spezifische Radioaktivität in den Grasaschen nimmt mit steigender Höhenlage des Probenahmeortes stark zu; diese Höhenabhängigkeit der Kontamination kann nicht durch unterschiedliche Aktivitätszufuhr zum Boden in Abhängigkeit von der Höhe erklärt werden. Auch zeigen die Gräser aus verschiedenen Höhen keine Unterschiede bezüglich Wasser- und Mineraliengehalt, die den Höheneffekt der Kontamination erklären könnten. Die auf Gletscherflächen gefundene Konzentration an Kernspaltprodukten ist sehr hoch (maximal mehrere 1000·10^–7 C/cm³). Ihre zeitlichen und örtlichen Abhängigkeiten werden studiert.Eine besonders eingehende Auswertung erfahren die in Niederschlägen gefundenen Werte der Radioaktivität, vor allem auch in bezug auf meteorologische Bedingungen (z. B. Labilität), den zeitlichen Abfall der Aktivität (Bestimmung der Explosionszeitpunkte) und die Beziehung zur Luftradioaktivität (wash out-Effekt). Es zeigt sich, daß die Niederschläge sehr oft Aktivität zur Erdoberfläche zurückführen, die, an Feinstaub gebunden, durch Luftbewegung vom Boden aufgewirbelt worden war; dadurch entsteht eine Verfälschung der Aktivitätsmessung im Niederschlag. Niederschläge, die an Hochstationen aufgefangen werden, liefern verläßlichere Werte in bezug auf künstliche Radioaktivität aus dem Wolkenniveau, da sich die Aufwirbelungsvorgänge nur in den untersten 100 m der Atmosphäre abspielen.

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Summary Measurements of artificial and radioactivity in precipitation, on glacier surfaces, and in samples of grass and animal matter are described. The observations have been carried out regularly since 1957/58. Samples from different altitudes have been taken simultaneously at two alpine stations (altitude difference 1,1 km, horizontal distance 2,5 km). Glacier ice was sampled at an altitude of 2600 m. In addition to the determinations of radioactivity, analyses of radio-isotopes were carried out.Comparison of the results from different altitudes shows that the specific radioactivity of precipitation during the last kilometre of its fall increases by about 20%, while the mean addition of radioactive matter to the ground is about equal at the upper and lower station (due to the different amounts of precipitation). The specific radioactivity of grass ashes shows a marked increase with altitude which cannot be explained by a different supply of radioactive matter to the ground. The grass in different altitudes shows no differences in water and mineral content which might otherwise explain the dependence on altitude of radioactive contamination. The concentration of nuclear fission products found on glacier surfaces is very high (maximum several 1000·10^–7 C/cm³).The radioactivity of precipitation with respect to the general meteorological conditions (e. g. instability), the decrease with time (after date of nuclear explosion), and the relationship to radioactivity of the air (wash-out effect) are discussed in detail. Measurements of the radioactivity of precipitation are often biased by radioactive dust carried off the ground by turbulence. Therefore, the most reliable determinations of radioactive contamination from the cloud level are obtained by using the precipitation at high altitude stations.

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Résumé Des mesures de la radioactivité et artificielle (produits de fission) de la précipitation, de la surface d'un glacier, de l'herbe et d'organes animaux faites depuis 1957/58 de façon continue ont fourni des valeurs provenant simultanément d'altitudes différentes. Elles ont été faites à deux stations alpines distantes de 2,5 km et à 1,1 km l'une au-dessus de l'autre; la glace fut récoltée á 2600 m. L'analyse des échantillons porta sur la teneur radioactive et la présence d'isotopes.Alors que la radioactivité de la précipitaton augmente de 20% au cours du dernier kilomètre de chute, l'activité fourni au sol est la même aux deux stations d'en haut et d'en bas. La radioactivité spécifique des cendres d'herbe augmente avec l'altitude, mais cela ne peut tenir à des différences de l'apport d'activité au sol ni à la teneur en sels minéraux ou en eau. Sur le glacier la concentration en produits radioactifs est très élevée.Il arrive que la précipitation ramène au sol des produits de fission souleveés de terre avec de fines poussières ce qui fausse les mesures relatives aux précipitations. Celles-ci sont plus sûres lorsqu'on les effectue à la montagne puisque les enrichissements par les poussières soulevées sont limités aux premiers cent mètres de l'atmosphère.

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Mit 17 Textabbildungen

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Zur Zeit Farchant bei Garmisch, Oberbayern, Bundesrepublik Deutschland.     

Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range in Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia in 1951–2010

Spatial distribution and trends in mean and absolute maximum and minimum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range were analysed at 47 stations in the eastern Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) during 1951–2010. Dependence of the studied variables on geographical factors (latitude, the Baltic Sea, land elevation) is discussed. Statistically significant increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were detected for March, April, July, August and annual values. At the majority of stations, the increase was detected also in February and May in case of maximum temperature and in January and May in case of minimum temperature. Warming was slightly higher in the northern part of the study area, i.e. in Estonia. Trends in the diurnal temperature range differ seasonally. The highest increasing trend revealed in April and, at some stations, also in May, July and August. Negative and mostly insignificant changes have occurred in January, February, March and June. The annual temperature range has not changed.     

Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex,Wind Chill,and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012

Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953–2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960–2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below ?30 have decreased significantly at more than 76% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres.     

Climate warming, water storage, and Chinook salmon in California’s Sacramento Valley

The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California’s Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook’s ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river’s temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2°C, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4°C could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction.     

Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003

An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1961–2003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent.     

Variations in precipitation amounts, atmosphere circulation, and relative humidity in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria for the period 1947–2008

Variations of precipitation amounts, atmosphere circulation, and relative humidity at three high mountainous stations in Bulgaria are investigated. The research period is 1947–2008. Three stations are peaks Musala (2,927?m), Cherni Vrah (2,293?m), and Botev (2,378?m). Homogeneity checks were performed. Some adjustments of monthly precipitation amounts were done due to the change of rain gauge placements. Methods employed in this research are statistical—trend analysis, multiple linear regression, autocorrelation, spectral analysis, correlation, etc. The main conclusion is that annual precipitation amounts in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria decrease over the last six decades. These trends are statistically significant in lower and northern stations of Cherni Vrah and Botev. Observed tendencies are due mainly to precipitation in months of the cold part of the year—from October till March and also June. Atmospheric circulation, on an annual basis, shows a decrease in the number of cyclones and an increase of the number of anticyclones. Atmospheric pressure has no significant change during the research period. Relative humidity, on an annual basis, increases at the two western stations (Musala and Cherni Vrah) and decreases at Botev peak. Multiple regression statistical modeling shows good results at stations Cherni Vrah and Botev. Station Musala is more difficult to model with the five predictors used because of the winter months. Correlation coefficients reveal a good connection between precipitation amounts at all three stations. Only Botev station has a significant cycle in precipitation distribution, which is about 3.7?months.     

Who governs here? Informal resource extraction,state enforcement,and conflict in Ghana

Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.     

Uranium Isotopes, Metals and Other Elements in Lichens and Tree Barks Collected in Bosnia–Herzegovina

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) performed field surveys at 15 sites in Bosnia–Herzegovina where depleted uranium (DU) ammunition was used by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the Balkans conflict (1994–1995). During the field missions, the Italian Environmental Protection Agency (APAT) evaluated airborne contamination due to DU dusts or aerosol particles, generated at the time of the conflict by the impact of DU ammunition on hard targets, using lichens and tree barks as biomonitors. Each sample was analyzed by alpha-spectrometry for DU determination. The ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity concentration ratios were used to distinguish natural from anthropogenic uranium. This paper reports the data obtained by the UNEP investigation, including (non-radioactive) metal and other element concentrations in lichen and tree bark samples measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The results indicated: (i) lichens and tree barks are sensitive bio-accumulators of past airborne contamination by depleted uranium dusts; (ii) 8 years after the conflict, environmental DU contamination is still present at some of the target sites; and (iii) the highest concentrations of most non-radioactive elements were found at sites used for ammunition destruction.