A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.     

Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions.     

Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area

We evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure in a fire-prone Mediterranean area (Sardinia, Italy) in relation to changes in ignition patterns, weather, suppression activities, and land uses. We also used wildfire simulations to identify fine-scale changes in wildfire exposure of important features on the island. Sardinia experienced a sharp reduction in fire number and area burned between the periods 1980–1994 and 1995–2009. Despite this decrease, losses and fatalities from wildfires continue. This suggests that localized areas and seasons of high wildfire risk persist on the island. Our analysis showed (1) a reduction in area burned (60,000–20,000 ha/year) and ignitions (3,700–2,600 fires/year), (2) an advance of 15 days for the fire season peak, (3) an increase in spring temperatures, and (4) an increase in fire exposure for WUI areas. Little change was noted for land use types and associated fuels. Most likely the reduction in fire activity may be due to a combination of social factors and suppression capabilities. On the other hand, simulation modeling suggested pockets of high wildfire exposure in specific places. The combined empirical analyses and simulation modeling provided a robust approach to understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildfire risk on the island.     

Wildfire evacuations in Canada 1980–2007

Evacuations represent an integral aspect of protecting public safety in locations where intense, fast-spreading forest fires co-occur with human populations. Most Canadian fire management agencies have as their primary objective the protection of people and property, and all fire management agencies in Canada recommend evacuations when public safety is in question. This study provides the first national assessment of wildfire-related evacuations in Canada and documents the loss of homes that coincided with evacuation events. The most striking finding is that despite the intensity and abundance of wildfire in Canada, wildfires have displaced a relatively small number of people. Between 1980 and 2007, the median number of evacuees and home losses per year in Canada were 3,590 and 2, respectively. Evacuees’ homes survived in 99.3% of cases. Patterns of evacuations and home losses reflected the distributions of forests, wildfire, and people across the Canadian landscape. Most evacuations occurred in boreal areas, which have relatively low population densities but among the highest percent annual area burned in Canada. Evacuations were less common in southern parts of the country, where most Canadians reside, but individual wildfires in these areas had significant impacts. Interactions between wildfire and people in Canada exhibited a unique regional pattern, and within the most densely populated regions of the country they can be considered ‘low-probability, high-consequence’ events. This Canadian context is fundamentally different from places such as California, where concentrations of fires and people overlap across large areas and therefore calls for a fundamentally different fire management response.     

Assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: case study of the 2007 wildfires in Peloponnesus

This paper deals with the 2007 wildfires that hit Peloponnesus, the southern peninsula of Greece, presenting an overview of the impacts in terms of infrastructural damages and human injuries and losses. Network performance and components’ criticality analyses are used to assess the effects of the fires in vehicular traffic and the overall transport network. The crisis and emergency management of the event are discussed in depth, highlighting potential gaps and possibilities for future improvement. The paper concludes with a presentation of the adaptation measures that succeeded the event in terms of recovery plans, national efforts on fire prevention programs and wildfire management.     

WUIVAC: a wildland-urban interface evacuation trigger model applied in strategic wildfire scenarios

An evacuation trigger is a point on the landscape that, once crossed by a wildfire, triggers an evacuation for a community. The Wildland-Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model can be used to create evacuation trigger buffers around a community using fuels, weather, and topographic inputs. A strategic, community-scale application of WUIVAC for the town of Julian, California was investigated. Eight years of wind measurements were used to determine the worst-case (strongest) winds in 16 directions. Surface fire rate of spread was used to calculate evacuation trigger buffers for the communities of Julian and nearby Whispering Pines, and for three potential evacuation routes. Multiple trigger buffers were combined to create fire planning areas, and trigger buffers that predict the closure of all evacuation routes were explored. WUIVAC trigger buffers offer several potential benefits for strategic evacuation planning, including determination of when to evacuate and locating potential evacuation routes.     

Evaluating the persistence of post‐fire residual patches in the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest

In boreal forest ecosystems, wildfire severity (i.e. the extent of fire‐related tree mortality) is affected by environmental conditions and fire intensity. A burned area usually includes tree patches that partially or entirely escaped fire, called ‘residual patches’. Although the occurrence of residual patches has been extensively documented, their persistence through time, and thus their capacity to escape several consecutive fires, has not yet been investigated. Macroscopic charcoal particles embedded in organic soils were used to reconstruct the fire history of 13 residual patches of the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest. Our results display the existence of two types of residual patches: (i) patches that only escaped fire by chance, maybe because of local site or meteorological conditions unsuitable for fire spread (random patches), and (ii) patches with lower fire susceptibility, also called ‘fire refuges’ that escaped at least two consecutive fires, probably because of particular site characteristics. Fire refuges can escape fire for more than 500 years, up to several thousand years, and probably burn only during exceptionally severe fire events. Special conservation efforts could target fire refuges owing to their old age, long ecological continuity and potential specific biological diversity associated to different microhabitats.     

The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale

Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur??s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram??s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale.     

Areas of the U.S. wildland–urban interface threatened by wildfire during the 2001–2010 decade

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is defined in terms of housing density and proximity to wildlands, yet its relevance seems to be only in conjunction with wildland fire threats. The objective of this paper is to (1) identify the WUI areas threatened from wildfire during the 2000’s and (2) quantify the values that were threatened. We use 1 km fire detection data generated using MODIS satellite imagery over a 10-year period combined with population densities to identify threatened areas of the WUI. We then use data on structures, structure content, and population to identify the people and property threatened from identified fires within the WUI. We find that 6.3 % of the U.S. population (17.5 million) resided within these areas and that 2.1 % of the population lived in WUI areas where more than one fire has occurred. However, we find that only a third of the affected population was threatened during daytime hours, as most leave the threatened portion of the WUI during peak ignition hours. The threatened area comprised 4.1 % of the coterminous USA and 44.9 % of the WUI. Within these areas were 7.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, governmental, religious, and educational structures, with a building and building content value estimated at $1.9 trillion. Overall, 7.3 % of residential structures in the USA were found within the WUI with wildfire activity; however, for some states, this number was as high as 25.4 %.     

Too hot to handle: Depoliticisation and the discourse of ecological modernisation in fire management debates

The management of fire within landscapes is a topic of increasing contestation. This is particularly the case in relation to the practice of ‘prescribed burning’, which aims to exercise a form of control of wild fires through the application of science-based techniques that putatively reconcile the conservation of biodiversity with the protection of human life and property in particular places. The belief in possibilities to solve environmental problems by scientific approaches and in outcomes that do not involve harm or vulnerabilities is an element of a trend called “Ecological Modernisation” (EM). Various studies have shown how discourses of EM have come to dominate the ways in which many contemporary environmental problems are approached. We argue that highlighting the presentation of such discourses as neutral and non-politicised precludes a critical examination of the ways in which the knowledge claims upon which they rest can be seen to reinforce only particular sets of constructions of the relationship between humans and the natural world. Through an analysis of knowledge claims made in relation to recurring topics such as the use of fire by Indigenous Australians and the adaptation of species to fire, we illustrate that behind the discourse of ecological modernisation sit deeply engrained variations in terms of where people locate vulnerability in relation to the pressing problem of wildfire and fire management. We argue that the depoliticisation of the topic sustains specific types of relationships between people and nature while delegitimising others and obscures the fundamentally different notions about relationships between humans and non-human nature upon which the debate ultimately pivots.     

Coexisting with wildfire? Achievements and challenges for a radical social-ecological transformation in Catalonia (Spain)

The challenge of sustainability is not about producing more or better managerial knowledge. It is in fact a transformation of the systems and structures that perpetuate environmental problems that is emerging as the key sustainability goal. In this paper we show the relevance of this argument, by using wildfires as symptoms of the challenges posed by global change to western societies, where wildfires are becoming increasingly problematic. Climate change, land abandonment, exurban expansion and fire suppression schemes are some of the main reasons behind this. Tackling the increasing intensity and complexity of wildfires is consequently emerging as an important research and policy topic. A central question in the literature is how to achieve a more sustainable coexistence with wildfire. Fuel reduction treatments, fire restoration, the reform of current suppression policies and adaptive institutional arrangements have all been debated. However, the social-ecological transformations needed to effectively implement these management options are not sufficiently understood. This paper looks at the efforts of the Catalan wildfire management system to cope with wildfire risk over the last decades. In particular, the emergence of GRAF, a group of wildfire fighting specialists in the Fire Department, is described. Emphasizing the need to understand wildfires as an inherent part of Mediterranean ecosystems, the expansion of GRAF highlights how learning to coexist with wildfire in Catalonia has triggered a set of transformative processes in institutional arrangements and power relationships of the wildfire management system. Our data also illustrate how coexisting with wildfire entails a dramatic social-ecological transformation in terms of land-uses, settlement patterns, energy supply systems and social values about wildfires. Moreover, we warn that in the absence of such systemic changes, management improvements might paradoxically reinforce risk. We conclude that wildfire researchers and practitioners should link the proposed management options to a deeper debate on how to produce alternative, less flammable landscapes, as agents of a broader social-ecological transformation to sustainability.     

Estimating Benefits in a Recovering Estuary: Tampa Bay,Florida

Restoration and preservation of riparian forests and coastal marshes provides nutrient removal and other biochemical and physical functions which may preclude, reduce, or delay the need for additional water treatment, while also protecting human health. We examined the ecosystem goods and related potential cost savings for the Tampa Bay community from seagrass expansion (more than 3,100 ha since 1990), coastal marsh, and mangrove restoration/recovery (more than 600 ha since 1990), and habitat that has been maintained or preserved. Habitats in and around Tampa Bay provide nutrient reductions equivalent to just over US$22 million per year in avoided wastewater treatment plant costs. Future accrual of value associated with maintaining the ecosystem good of usable clean water could rapidly increase to as high as ～US$3 billion per year, when one takes into account the additional costs of water treatment and storm water diversion infrastructure that is likely as the region’s population continues to grow. There is additional value accrual close to a quarter million dollars per year based on avoided social costs to the global community due to greenhouse gases sequestered by bay habitats. Most human beneficiaries associated with the maintenance of usable clean water in Tampa Bay are part of the surrounding regional community. The large current and future cost savings for the community surrounding Tampa Bay and additional benefits for the global community speak to the value of maintaining a healthy bay through past and continued restoration and preservation efforts.     

Landslides on the Loess Plateau of China: a latest statistics together with a close look

China has a serious wildfire problem with a large number of fires in the south of the country especially during the winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) seasons. This study focused on identifying the causes of variability in inter-annual fire seasons. The relationship between fires and climatic parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) was evaluated on annual and seasonal (winter, spring) time scales. Certain other parameters (moisture balance, surface moisture balance, coefficient of variability of daily precipitation and ratio between evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) were also calculated and related to fire variability for both time scales. Inter-annual time scale was found not to be strong enough to explain fire activity in the region; however, inter-seasonal fire variability showed significant correlation with potential evapotranspiration and with the ratio between evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration. The relationship and relative variability between evapotranspiration and the potential evapotranspiration were found to have important effect on inter-seasonal fire variability as compared to the other parameters studied, and link fire activity in the region to large-scale climatic systems.     

An android intelligent mobile terminal application: field data survey system for forest fires

In order to meet the requirements of data collection in field survey of forest fires, this paper designed and realized a data collection system for forest fire field survey based on mobile smart phones with Android system. This android intelligent mobile terminal application contains three main data collection functions which are forest fuel data collection, forest fire events survey data collection and wildfire experiment data collection. Moreover, this intelligent mobile terminal application could overlay the spatial location of the collected data and Google map, which can facilitate users to understand the surrounding environment of the collected location. The intelligent mobile terminal application can easily record the text and numeric data when collecting forest fire data in field. Spatial locations, pictures, videos and other multimedia information can also be obtained by GPS and camera with the intelligent terminal. The system has been initially applied in the field works and obtained very good practical effect.     

An Australian pyro-tornadogenesis event

On 18 January 2003, fires had a devastating impact on Australia’s capital, Canberra. A series of reviews and scientific studies have examined the events of that day and indicate that the worst impacts were due to a series of violent pyro-convective events and resultant pyro-cumulonmibi. These coupled fire–atmosphere events are much more energetic than normal fires. In one instance, an intense pyro-convective cell developed a tornado. We demonstrate that this was indeed a tornado, the first confirmed pyro-tornadogenesis in Australia, and not a fire whirl. Here, we discuss aspects of the formation, evolution and decay of the tornado, which was estimated to have been of at least F2 intensity, highlighting a process that can significantly increase the damage of a wildfire event.     

Fire and other disturbances of the forests in Mount Rainier National Park

The recent history of catastrophic disturbances in forests was reconstructed at Mount Rainier National Park. Basic data were ages of trees based on ring counts of early seral conifer species and maps of age-class boundaries from field work and aerial photographs. Maps illustrate age classes of the forests and show disturbances from fires, snow avalanches, and lahars (volcanic mudflows). Fires are by far the most important major disturbers, followed by snow avalanches and lahars. Fires over 250 ha in size are called fire events. Burns over 1000 ha, which may have been one fire or a series of fires within a short time, are called fire episodes. Important fire events or episodes occurred in the years 1230, 1303, 1403, 1503, 1628, 1688, 1703, 1803, 1825, 1856, 1858, 1872, 1886, 1894, 1930, and 1934 A.D. The largest fire episode was in 1230; it affected approximately 47% of the forests in the park. The majority of the forests are over 350 yr old, and several stands are over 1000 yr old. Stands 350 yr and 100 to 200 yr in age are the most extensive age classes in the park. Three fire frequency indices are compared. None describe fire frequency at Mount Rainier well. Natural fire rotation was estimated at about 434 yr. All but two episodes of major fires since 1300 A.D. correspond well with major droughts reconstructed for locations east of the Cascade Range crest. Impacts of humans on the disturbance regime may have increased the frequency of fire in the 1850–1900 period, followed by a decrease in frequency after 1900. Fuel build-up as a result of fire suppression should have no significant impact on fire frequency, since fires are relatively infrequent and fuels accumulate naturally.     

Relationship in metastasis of coal fire and land use/cover using thermal imagery and support vector machine classifier

The objective of the present study was to delineate temporal and spatial changes in the coal fire and land use/cover within Bastacolla area of Jharia coal field. Studying this variation helped to decipher interconnection among the dynamics of the coal fire and concomitant changes in land use/cover. The detection of coal fires during a span of 14 years along with transitioning land use/cover was cost-effective and enabled planning for management of coal resources and environment. Landsat series of satellite data of 2002, 2009, 2013, and 2016 were processed for generating land surface temperature profiles vis-a-vis classified land use/cover of the study area. A single cut-off temperature was derived for mapping of coal fires using land surface temperature profile from 2002 to 2016. The satellite images were classified using support vector machines, and for depicting land use/cover change, post-classification change detection was done. Classification accuracy obtained was excellent with kappa coefficient ranging from 0.897 for classified image of 2002 to 0.799 for classified image of 2016. Results revealed that coal fires had shifted to the central west part of the area. Furthermore, pockets of coal fire from northern and eastern part of the study area have diminished. OB dumps and coal quarry/coal dump may be attributed towards the spatial change in coal fire while; OB dumps showed connotation with the highest temperature zones. Ground verifications for temperature profiles and coal fires were carried out using thermal camera which enunciated good agreement with results.     

A 560-Year Record of Santa Ana Fires Reconstructed from Charcoal Deposited in the Santa Barbara Basin, California

Microscopic charcoal from varved Santa Barbara Basin sediments was used to reconstruct a 560-yr record (A.D. 1425 to 1985) of Santa Ana fires. Comparison of large (>3750 μm²) charcoal with documented fire records in the Santa Barbara Ranger District shows that high accumulations correspond to large fires (>20,000 ha) that occurred during Santa Ana conditions. The charcoal record reconstructed a minimum of 20 large fires in the Santa Barbara region during the study period. The average time between fires shows no distinct change across three different land use periods: the Chumash period, apparently characterized by frequent burning, the Spanish/Early American period with nominal fire control, and the 20th century with active fire suppression. Pollen data support the conclusion that the fire regime has not dramatically changed during the last 500 yr. Comparison of large charcoal particle accumulation rates and precipitation reconstructed from tree rings show a strong relationship between climate and fire history, with large fires consistently occurring at the end of wet periods and the beginning of droughts.