一种改进的测量冰核的滤膜技术

关于冰核浓度的测量,还没有令人满意的标准外场方法,尽管滤膜技术是一个有希望的选择,但这要能消去或能说明随取样体积增加冰核浓度下降的趋势。为此研制和试验了一种改进的显现暴露后滤膜的通风(动态)云室系统。对从新的动态云室得出的自然冰核浓度与同时由静态扩散云室得出的结果进行了比较。采用静态云室方法,其结果表明存在体积效应,但在新的动态系统的结果中这种效应消失了。为了证实通风气流效应,对混有氯化钠或不混有氯化钠粒子(吸湿材料)的碘化银和四聚乙醛这两类不同人造冰核的取样滤膜进行显现。不管是否混有吸湿物质,测量的人造冰核浓度具有相同的数量级。自然和人造冰核浓度测量的一致性表明用新的动态云室技术可以消除体积效应。     

用磁带消磁法测量闪电峰值电流

利用磁带的磁化效应测量闪电流是一种简易易行的方法。该装置价格低廉、安装方便、１９４年和１９９５年用该装置测量人工引雷的峰值电流、取得了罗好的结果。     

超声测风传感器在回路风洞中的测试

超声测风仪因启动风速小、无转动部件、不破坏风场、测量精度高等特点,适用于多种行业的测风需求。超声波测风的相关检定规程当前在国内尚未正式制定。本文借鉴风杯检定规程所选择的风速测试点,在HDF-720低速回路风洞中,对超声测风仪在不同角度下进行了测试数据统计分析。结果表明:超声测风仪可以安装在工作段面较大的风洞中进行测试,由于超声探头存在阴影效应,对于同一风速,不同角度上的测量结果稍有差异,而且不同风速对应的差异也不同。利用超声测风仪进行风速实时测量时,必须结合上述测试分析,按照超声传感器的安装角度,对测量值进行相应修正。     

关于现行日射观测中的误差

热电式辐射仪器通过电表所显示出来的数值,不仅与辐射强度本身有关,而且也与环境温度有密切关系。这会给观测结果带来一系统性误差,其量值在“热电式相对日射表温度效应的测量”(以下简称“测量”,见本刊1978年第2期)一文中已经给出,这确实     

雷达信号的相关分析和谱分析

运动质点的多普勒效应使它们散射的雷达信号呈现为一种随机过程,对这随机过程的统计特性进行分析就能够推断云和降水的微物理或运动学的状况。本文由这种观点讨论了雷达气象的几种测量原理,它能够比较清楚地阐明每种方法的实质,也便于对各种方法的优缺点进行对比。文中还讨论了脉冲波列的谱分析问题,涉及了如何根据雷达测量结果去推断云和降水的微物理或运动学状况的问题。     

中国西北大气沙尘对地气系统和大气辐射加热的影响

利用ＨＥＩＦＥ地面辐射平衡观测资料以及ＮＯＡＡ１１／ＡＶＨＲＲ卫星测量资料,三算我国西北大气沙尘对地－气系统和大所中辐向 热率的影响。１９９１年２月下旬－５月中旬１１天的计算表明,春季大气沙尘的辐身躯效应与地表状况有关;在高地表反照率的沙漠上空,大气沙尘的短波辐射效应为减小行星反照率增暖气－气系统,同时吸收太阳辐射增暖大气大气顶射出长波辐射对大气沙尘的变化并不敏感,但大气尘尘增加大气的长波冷却;在     

冬季地形云催化效应的持续性

本文是一个个例研究,讨论内华达山脉中部冬季地形云的空中催化效应,用AgI催化,即在丙酮中燃烧AgI,NH_4I、NH_4ClO_4的混合物。在催化后90多分钟,观测到在催化线下风方100公里处仍有持续效应。研究飞机的冰核计数器可确定此AgI线源的位置,并进行跟踪。由催化引起的高冰晶浓度在催化后一个多小时才明显。部分原因可能是自然冰晶浓度较高,但事后分析表明,在催化后第一个小时所做的绝大多数采样飞行,位于被碘化银催化的体积之下。冰核测量结果证实在催化后1—1.5小时对催化线进行了采样,伴随有冰晶浓度的增加。催化剂在外场的效率比实验室测量值要高。     

防风林背风面的风速分布以及关于防风林宽度的风洞试验

为了搞清防风林宽度对背风面风速分布的效应,在风洞中进行了防风林的模型试验。作用在防风林上的曳力可以用曳力表在风洞中测量出来。该曳力可以用来作为防风林空气动力学特性的一个标志。结果表明,背风面风速分布的种种类型受防风林宽度的影响极为明显。     

立体雷达方法在星载测雨雷达上的应用

星载测雨雷达的应用,必须满足一些主要条件：高的空间分辨率、宽阔的覆盖范围、大的动态降雨测量范围以及精确的点测量等。由于技术条件的限制,满足这些条件的雷达工作在被雨衰减的频率段,因此必须修正由于衰减所导致的误差。立体雷达方法利用雷达从两个不同角度对雨团的观测来进行衰减效应的订正并实现整个观察区域的雷达反射率因子和比衰减因子场的反演。通过数值实验研究了星载特性的引入造成的不均匀性束内填充效应对立体雷达方法的影响     

北海道湖爷洞附近冬季气温分布

本文对小型湖泊(面积小于200平方公里)附近的局地气候作了研究,测量了日本北海道洞爷湖附近的冬季气温分布和风系。静夜,洞爷湖附近及周围地区风系的湖泊效应是显著的。夜间,地面附近风从周围地区吹向湖泊。但是,在白天,地面风向和梯度风相同。观测了白天和夜间湖岸上气温分布的湖泊效应。白天洞爷湖北岸的向岸风的气温比南岸的离岸风的气温高约2℃;晚上,气温的局部波动是显著的。气温地区差异最大值约是5℃。     

气象探空火箭测风不确定度评估方法

本文在气象火箭测风反演数学模型基础上,通过误差分析理论和曲线拟合最小二乘原理,对大气风场反演结果不确定度的评估方法进行了研究。根据火箭探空仪在空中的运动规律,首先建立数学反演模型,推导得到风速和风向的计算公式;然后根据误差理论,推导得出反演风速和风向的不确定度表达式;基于多项式拟合方法,进一步推导得出拟合后的风速和风向的系统误差和随机误差公式,并求解公式中系数。最后以1次气象火箭实测数据为例,对风场及其不确定度进行了分析计算。结果表明:风速反演不确定度随高度降低而减小,在50～60km高度不确定度约为2.8～3.5m/s,50km以下不确定度在1m/s以内;风向在正北方向(0°)附近摆动时,会导致反演不确定度异常增大,其他高度不确定度基本在10°以内。     

近100年中国地表平均气温变化的误差分析

误差问题是气候变化研究中必须考虑的一个重要因素,利用全国616个气象观测站的气温资料对近100年中国地表平均气温变化中的4类误差及其造成的不确定性范围进行了定量计算和综合分析。结果表明,20世纪60年代以前覆盖误差影响最大;70年代开始由于中国城市化进程的加快,城市化影响导致的偏差误差呈上升趋势。由此可见,从准确检测近100年中国区域气候变化信号的角度来看,减少覆盖误差是减小早期不确定性的关键,同时近年来城市化的影响也值得注意。综合来看,近100年来中国地表平均气温变化的误差及其所引起的不确定性随时间不断减小。比较分析表明,近100年中国地表平均气温变化不确定性的主要变化特征与全球基本一致,均为早期大、后期小。因此,无论是全球还是中国都应该注意由误差引起的不确定性影响,特别是在早期。     

国产总辐射表检定结果的不确定度分析

国产总辐射表检定时,其测量结果的不确定度由重复性测量、标准器、温度变化、入射角、时间响应、非线性、零位漂移、数据采集器误差、操作误差和光谱响应误差多种因素引起。根据《JJF1059-1999测量不确定度评定与表示》规定的方法,对国产总辐射表检定结果的不确定度进行评定。分析并列出对测量结果有明显影响的不确定度来源。对各标准不确定度分量进行定量评定。结果表明,在满足检定环境要求的条件下,总辐射表检定结果的扩展不确定度为3.4%,其中入射角误差引起的标准不确定度分量最大。因此新出厂的总辐射表必须严格按照《JJG458-96总辐射表》检定规程进行余弦响应、方位响应、非线性等误差的测试,保证总辐射表的测量准确度。     

Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty

An uncertainty assessment of the Austrian greenhouse gas inventory provided the basis for this analysis. We isolated the factors that were responsible for the uncertainty observed, and compared our results with those of other countries. Uncertainties of input parameters were used to derive the uncertainty of the emission estimate. Resulting uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach was 5.2% for the emission levels of 2005 and 2.4 percentage points for the 1990–2005 emission trend. Systematic uncertainty was not assessed. This result is in the range expected from previous experience in Austria and other countries. The determining factor for the emission level uncertainty (not the trend uncertainty) is the uncertainty associated with soil nitrous oxide N₂O emissions. Uncertainty of the soil N₂O release rate is huge, and there is no agreement even on the magnitude of the uncertainty when country comparisons are made. In other words, reporting and use of N₂O release uncertainty are also different between countries; this is important, as this single factor fully determines a country’s national greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty. Inter-country comparisons of emission uncertainty are thus unable to reveal much about a country’s inventory quality. For Austria, we also compared the results of the Monte Carlo approach to those obtained from a simpler error propagation approach, and find the latter to systematically provide lower uncertainty. The difference can be explained by the ability of the Monte Carlo approach to account for statistical dependency of input parameters, again regarding soil N₂O emissions. This is in contrast to the results of other countries, which focus less on statistical dependency when performing Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, the error propagation results depend on treatment of skewed probability distributions, which need to be translated into normal distributions. The result indicates that more attention needs to be given to identifying statistically dependent input data in uncertainty assessment.     

Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China

This study examines the sampling error uncertainties in the monthly surface air temperature (SAT) change in China over recent decades, focusing on the uncertainties of gridded data, national averages, and linear trends. Results indicate that large sampling error variances appear at the station-sparse area of northern and western China with the maximum value exceeding 2.0 K² while small sampling error variances are found at the station-dense area of southern and eastern China with most grid values being less than 0.05 K². In general, the negative temperature existed in each month prior to the 1980s, and a warming in temperature began thereafter, which accelerated in the early and mid-1990s. The increasing trend in the SAT series was observed for each month of the year with the largest temperature increase and highest uncertainty of 0.51 ± 0.29 K (10 year)⁻¹ occurring in February and the weakest trend and smallest uncertainty of 0.13 ± 0.07 K (10 year)⁻¹ in August. The sampling error uncertainties in the national average annual mean SAT series are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusion of the persistent warming in China. In addition, the sampling error uncertainties in the SAT series show a clear variation compared with other uncertainty estimation methods, which is a plausible reason for the inconsistent variations between our estimate and other studies during this period.

     

Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO,and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant.This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction,which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.     

物理实验中的不确定度评定

阐述了不确定度的定义、来源、分类及用不确定度评定测量结果的一些表示方法。分析了误差和不确定度的区别。最终给出了测量不确定度的评定。     

一次江淮梅雨锋暴雨的数值模拟可预报性研究

利用中尺度非静力MM5模式研究不同初始扰动（误差）对2003年7月4—5日发生在江淮流域的一次梅雨锋暴雨数值预报不确定性的影响,并着重分析了提前36h定量降水的可预报性。结果表明,利用常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR分析资料形成初始场的控制试验能够提前36h做出较好的模拟。扰动温度场的敏感性试验表明,扰动温度的均方差愈大,降水预报不确定性也愈大。误差演变特征和增长机制分析表明,误差增长具有升尺度特征,误差首先在对流层低层和高层增长,然后大值区向对流层中层扩展;湿降水过程是对流层中低层误差增长的主要机制;对流层高层的误差增长是大气干动力与湿过程共同作用的结果,前期以干过程为主,后期以湿过程为主。     

Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States

Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO₂ dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties.     

自动气象站各要素传感器检定结果的不确定度分析

自动气象站是由各要素的传感器和数据采集器组成的。随着时间的推移, 各传感器和数据采集器的测量误差将会发生漂移。为确保各要素观测数据的准确、可靠并具有可比性, 定期开展自动气象站的检定和校准是非常重要的。通过检定将各要素系统误差控制在允许范围内, 并对检定结果进行不确定度分析, 是考察检定结果可信程度的重要步骤。本文依据自动气象站检定规程及JJF1059-1999《测量不确定度评定与表示》的要求, 并根据检定数据, 进行自动气象站的各要素检定结果的不确定度分析, 对自动气象站检定结果可信度评估具有指导意义。