Relationship between Mid-latitude Circulation Indices and Indian Northeast Monsoon Rainfall

—The study presents the results of the statistical relationship between seasonal northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu state of India (TNR) and southeast India (SER) and mid-latitude circulation indices viz., zonal index (ZON) meridional index (MER) and the ratio of meridional to zonal index (M/Z) between the geographical area 35°N to 70°N at 500 hPa level over three sectors and hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) of data. The results indicate that northeast monsoon rainfall over India shows a strong antecedent relationship with the strength of ZON over all the sectors and hemisphere. The best association is observed during antecedent March over sector I (45°W–90°E) where direct and strong correlation coefficients of 0.69 and 0.64 are obtained with TNR and SER, respectively. Antecedent MAM (spring) season over sector I also shows a significant positive correlation with TNR/SER. Thus, the mid-latitude zonal circulation index may have possible use for the long-range forecasting of northeast monsoon rainfall over India.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.     

Modeling seasonal circulation, upwelling and tidal mixing in the Arafura and Timor Seas

The extensive shallow tropical seas off northern Australia, encompassing the Arafura and Timor Seas, have been identified as one of the most pristine marine environments on the planet. However, the remoteness and the absence of major industrial development that has contributed to this status have the additional consequence that relatively little is known about these systems. This study is the first to model oceanographic conditions across the tidally dominated Arafura and Timor Seas, and their seasonal variability. The results are based on a high-resolution (0.05°) ocean circulation model forced by realistic winds, waves and tides. The main focus of the study is on physical processes that influence the distributions of sediments and primary productivity across the system. Regions of high bottom stress and tidal mixing have been identified, including a large offshore area around Van Diemen Rise (Timor Sea). Lagrangian particle tracks have revealed a seasonal overturning cell that stretches across the Gulf of Carpentaria (Arafura Sea) with upwelling and downwelling on either side of the Gulf. The presence of coastal upwelling and downwelling is shown to provide a dynamically consistent explanation for the persistent turbid boundary layer observed around the shallow coastal waters of the Gulf.     

Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19–25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12–18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19–25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four homogeneous regions. Thus the slight variations in the characteristics of intraseasonal monsoon rainfall over India is associated with variations in predictive skill of the coupled models and the MME-based predictions of intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations for 2–3 weeks, providing encouraging results. The MME forecast in 2010 is also able to provide useful guidance, well in advance, about an active September associated with a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and also the heavy rainfall over north Pakistan.     

Interactive Aspects of the Indian and the African Summer Monsoon Systems

This study addresses an understanding of the possible mutual interactions of sub-seasonal variability of the two neighboring regional monsoon systems through data analysis. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis and OLR data for three years was used to reveal the large-scale organization of convective episodes on synoptic (~5 days) and low frequency (15–50 day) scales. It is found that synoptic scale organization over both the sectors is influenced by the eastward migration of large-scale convective episodes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the low frequency scale. The organization of convection associated with the African monsoon on the synoptic scale is influenced by the pulsatory character of lower mid-troposphere and upper troposphere wind regimes moving westward over the African sector. Over the Indian region formation of low pressure areas and depressions in the monsoon trough occur in an overlapping manner under an envelope of low frequency seasonal oscillation. We have also found some correspondence between the summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa and India on a decadal basis, which would suggest a common mode of multi-decadal variability in the two monsoon systems. The study points out the need to organize simultaneous field campaigns over the Indian and the African monsoon regions so as to bring out observational features of possible interactions between the two neighboring systems, which could then be validated through modeling studies.     

Role of Ocean in the Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Asian summer monsoon sets in over India after the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves across the equator to the northern hemisphere over the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on either side of the equator in Indian and Pacific oceans are found related to the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India). Droughts in the June to September monsoon rainfall of India are followed by warm SST anomalies over tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over west Pacific Ocean. These anomalies persist till the following monsoon which gives normal or excess rainfall (tropospheric biennial oscillation). Thus, we do not get in India many successive drought years as in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to the ocean. Monsoon rainfall of India has a decadal variability in the form of 30-year epochs of frequent (infrequent) drought monsoons occurring alternately. Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well-known decadal oscillation in SST of the Atlantic Ocean (also of the Pacific Ocean) are found to run parallel with about the same period close to 60 years and the same phase. In the active–break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, the ocean and the atmosphere are found to interact on the time scale of 30–60 days. Net heat flux at the ocean surface, monsoon low-level jetstream (LLJ) and the seasonally persisting shallow mixed layer of the ocean north of the LLJ axis play important roles in this interaction. In an El Niño year, the LLJ extends eastwards up to the date line creating an area of shallow ocean mixed layer there, which is hypothesised to lengthen the active–break (AB) cycle typically from 1 month in a La Niña to 2 months in an El Niño year. Indian monsoon droughts are known to be associated with El Niños, and long break monsoon spells are found to be a major cause of monsoon droughts. In the global warming scenario, the observed rapid warming of the equatorial Indian ocean SST has caused the weakening of both the monsoon Hadley circulation and the monsoon LLJ which has been related to the observed rapid decreasing trend in the seasonal number of monsoon depressions.     

Simulation of Monsoon Disturbances in a GCM

--A large part of the rainfall over India during the summer monsoon season (June-September) is contributed by synoptic scale disturbances such as monsoon depressions. To study the evolution of such disturbances in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM), the Hadley Centre AGCM (HadAM2b) has been integrated for 15 summer monsoons (1979-1993) and the output was examined for the presence of synoptic scale disturbances such as monsoon depressions, low pressure areas, land lows and land depressions over the Indian summer monsoon region. The atmospheric initial condition for each of these integrations was of 23rd May and observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) were described as a boundary condition.¶Although the horizontal resolution of the AGCM used in this study is only 2.5° 2 3.75° lat. long., the model is able to simulate a few monsoon disturbances. The important features of these simulated disturbances are presented. The features of the simulated disturbances are realistic. The morphologies of a well simulated monsoon depression and a simulated low pressure area are presented as examples. The frequency of the simulated monsoon depressions is less than the climatological frequency of the depressions during all four monsoon months.     

Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia

The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanisms controlling the seasonal mixed-layer temperature and salinity of the Indonesian seas

We examine the seasonal mixed-layer temperature (MLT) and salinity (MLS) budgets in the Banda–Arafura Seas region (120–138° E, 8–3° S) using an ECCO ocean-state estimation product. MLT in these seas is relatively high during November–May (austral spring through fall) and relatively low during June–September (austral winter and the period associated with the Asian summer monsoon). Surface heat flux makes the largest contribution to the seasonal MLT tendency, with significant reinforcement by subsurface processes, especially turbulent vertical mixing. Temperature declines (the MLT tendency is negative) in May–August when seasonal insolation is smallest and local winds are strong due to the southeast monsoon, which causes surface heat loss and cooling by vertical processes. In particular, Ekman suction induced by local wind stress curl raises the thermocline in the Arafura Sea, bringing cooler subsurface water closer to the base of the mixed layer where it is subsequently incorporated into the mixed layer through turbulent vertical mixing; this has a cooling effect. The MLT budget also has a small, but non-negligible, semi-annual component since insolation increases and winds weaken during the spring and fall monsoon transitions near the equator. This causes warming via solar heating, reduced surface heat loss, and weakened turbulent mixing compared to austral winter and, to a lesser extent, compared to austral summer. Seasonal MLS is dominated by ocean processes rather than by local freshwater flux. The contributions by horizontal advection and subsurface processes have comparable magnitudes. The results suggest that ocean dynamics play a significant part in determining both seasonal MLT and MLS in the region, such that coupled model studies of the region should use a full ocean model rather than a slab ocean mixed-layer model.     

Interpretation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation‐related precipitation anomalies in north‐western Borneo using isotopic tracers

We examined rainfall anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in northern Sarawak, Malaysia, using the oxygen isotopic composition of rainfall. Two precipitation‐sampling campaigns were conducted for isotope analysis: (a) at the Lambir Hill National Park (4.2° N, 114.0° E) from July 2004 to October 2006 and (b) at the Gunung Mulu National Park (3.9° N, 114.8° E) from January 2006 to July 2008. The records from these campaigns were merged with a previously published rainfall isotope dataset from Gunung Mulu site to create a 7‐year‐long record of the oxygen isotopic composition of Sarawak rainfall. The record exhibits clear intraseasonal variations (ISVs) with periods ranging from 10 to 70 days. The ISVs of 10‐ to 90‐day band‐pass filtered oxygen isotopic composition are linked to the synoptic‐scale precipitation anomalies over the southern South China Sea (SCS). The lead–lag correlation map of precipitation with the filtered oxygen isotope anomalies shows that an anomalous wet condition responsible for the decrease in oxygen isotopic composition appears over the SCS in association with the passage of north‐eastward propagation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the summer monsoon season. The anomalous wet condition in spring is connected with eastward‐propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), whereas the sustained wet condition in winter is responsible for the occurrence of the Borneo vortex (BV) over the SCS. ENSO modulates the frequency of these synoptic conditions on a seasonal and longer time scale, showing a strong correlation between the seasonal isotopic anomalies and the Southern Oscillation index. We therefore discern, from the significant correlation between the isotope anomalies and area‐averaged Sarawak rainfall anomalies (R = ?0.65, p < 0.01), that ENSO‐related precipitation anomalies are linked to the seasonal modulation of the BSISO and MJO activity and BV genesis.     

Spatial and temporal distributions of stable isotopes in precipitation over Thailand

Spatial and temporal variations of the isotopic composition of precipitation over Thailand were investigated. The local meteoric water line for Thailand deviates slightly from the global meteoric water line, with lower slopes (7.62 ± 0.07, 7.59 ± 0.08) and intercepts (6.42 ± 0.39, 6.22 ± 0.42) using ordinary and precipitation weighted methods. Differences in spatial and temporal δ¹⁸O distributions between the tropical monsoon and tropical savanna climate zones were found due to differing moisture source contributions and seasonal precipitation patterns. The temporal data reveals that the northeast monsoon rains originate from isotopically-enriched local moisture with isotope values of −9.36 to −0.09‰ (mean − 3.73 ± 0.42‰), whereas the southwest monsoon clouds had a more significant rainout effect from Rayleigh distillation, with isotope values of −9.56 to −1.78‰ (mean − 5.40 ± 0.38‰). The precipitation amount at each site was negatively correlated with δ¹⁸O (−0.24 to −3.20‰ per 100 mm, R² = 0.1–0.9). Furthermore, δ¹⁸O was negatively correlated with geography (latitude, altitude) for the southwest monsoon periods, as expected based on other observed correlations. However, an inverse correlation was seen in the northeast monsoon due to differing moisture transportation as part of the continental effect. The correlation coefficient (R) was higher in the southwest monsoon (−0.84 for latitude effect, −0.64 for altitude effect) than the northeast monsoon (0.67 for latitude effect, 0.35 for altitude effect). The spatial pattern of isotopic composition reflects the southwest monsoon more clearly than the northeast monsoon, but the two monsoons also have a cancelling impact on orographic patterns. An agreement of the δ¹⁸O and deuterium excess (d-excess) was a negative correlation and found to reflect precipitation sources and re-evaporation processes. The d-excess was slightly higher for the northeast monsoon, bringing moisture from the Pacific Ocean and travelling across the continent before reaching the observed stations. By contrast, the d-excess was relatively lower for the Indian Ocean's moisture in the southwest monsoon.     

Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall

Summary The south Asian summer monsoon from June to September accounts for the greater part of the annual rainfall over most of India and southeast Asia. The evolution of the summer and winter monsoon circulations over India is examined on the basis of the surface and upper air data of stations across India. The salient features of the seasonal reversals of temperature and pressure gradients and winds and the seasonal and synoptic fluctuations of atmospheric humidity are discussed. The space-time variations of rainfall are considered with the help of climatic pentad rainfall charts and diagrams. The rainfall of several north and central Indian stations shows a minimum around mid-August and a maximum around mid-February which seem to be connected with the extreme summer and winter positions of the ITCZ and the associated north-south shifts in the seasonal circulation patterns. Attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the monsoon rainfall that emerge from a study of daily and hourly rainfall of selected stations. Diurnal variations of temperature, pressure, wind and rainfall over the monsoon belt are briefly treated.     

Time–frequency characterization of sub-divisional scale seasonal rainfall in India using the Hilbert–Huang transform

Time–frequency characterization is useful in understanding the nonlinear and non-stationary signals of the hydro-climatic time series. The traditional Fourier transform, and wavelet transform approaches have certain limitations in analyzing non-linear and non-stationary hydro-climatic series. This paper presents an effective approach based on the Hilbert–Huang transform to investigate time–frequency characteristics, and the changing patterns of sub-divisional rainfall series in India, and explored the possible association of monsoon seasonal rainfall with different global climate oscillations. The proposed approach integrates the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise algorithm and normalized Hilbert transform method for analyzing the spectral characteristics of two principal seasonal rainfall series over four meteorological subdivisions namely Assam-Meghalaya, Kerala, Orissa and Telangana subdivisions in India. The Hilbert spectral analysis revealed the dynamic nature of dominant time scales for two principal seasonal rainfall time series. From the trend analysis of instantaneous amplitudes of multiscale components called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), it is found that both intra and inter decadal modes are responsible for the changes in seasonal rainfall series of different subdivisions and significant changes are noticed in the amplitudes of inter decadal modes of two seasonal rainfalls in the four subdivisions since 1970s. Further, the study investigated the links between monsoon rainfall with the global climate oscillations such as Quasi Bienniel Oscillation (QBO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Number (SN), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc. The study noticed that the multiscale components of rainfall series IMF1, IMF2, IMF3, IMF4 and IMF5 have similar periodic structure of QBO, ENSO, SN, tidal forcing and AMO respectively. As per the seasonal rainfall patterns is concerned, the results of the study indicated that for Assam-Meghalaya subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme rare events at ~0.2 cycles per year, and both monsoon and pre-monsoon rainfall series have decreasing trends; for Kerala subdivision, extreme events can be expected during monsoon season with shorter periodicity (~2.5 years), and monsoon rainfall has statistically significant decreasing trend and post-monsoon rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend; and for Orissa subdivision, there are chances of extremes rainfall events in monsoon season and a relatively stable rainfall pattern during post-monsoon period, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed an overall decreasing trend; for Telangana subdivision, there is a likelihood of extreme events during monsoon season with a periodicity of ~4 years, but both monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall series showed increasing trends. The results of correlation analysis of IMF components of monsoon rainfall and five climate indices indicated that the association is expressed well only for low frequency modes with similar evolution of trend components.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh have been analysed. Standardized precipitation index method is used to compute the severity of droughts from the rainfall data recorded in 12 rainfall gauge stations for the period of 1961–1999. An artificial neural network is used to estimate missing rainfall data. Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to map the spatial extent of droughts of different severities in multiple time scales. Critical analysis of rainfall is also carried to find the minimum monsoon and dry months rainfall require in different parts of the study area to avoid rainfall deficit. The study shows that the north and north‐western parts of Bangladesh are most vulnerable to droughts. A significant negative relationship between multiple ENSO index and rainfall is observed in some stations. Analysis of seasonal rainfall distribution, rainfall reliability and long‐term rainfall trend is also conducted to aid prediction of future droughts in the area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new index to describe the tropical Asian summer monsoon

We define a new monsoon index (MV) as the product of relative vorticity and equivalent potential temperature using the long-term NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The MV index provides new insights into the intraseasonal and interannual variabilities of the broad-scale tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM), including the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). On the intraseasonal timescale, the pentad-to-pentad MV index bears a close relationship to the broad-scale rainfall in the TASM regions. Among 29 summers from 1979 to 2007, in 23/27 summers the correlation coefficients are higher than 0.7 in the SASM/SCSSM region. However, in fewer than 9 summers, the correlations between the broad-scale rainfall and the existing circulation indices are higher than 0.7. On the interannual timescale, various existing SASM circulation indices are moderately or well correlated with all-India summer monsoon rainfall, whereas their correlations with broad-scale SASM rainfall are weak. In contrast, the summer mean MV index correlates well with the broad-scale SASM rainfall and all-India summer monsoon rainfall (correlation of 0.73 and 0.65, respectively). In the SCSSM region, the summer mean MV index also bears a close relationship to the SCSSM rainfall, although some discrepancies exist during certain years. The composite strong TASM shows a stronger low-tropospheric low pressure in association with the enhanced westerly winds and moisture transfer, stronger convection, and upper-tropospheric easterly winds, which indicate that the MV index can well capture the features of TASM. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB400500), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 20070410133), Open Foundation of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (Grant No. KLME0704)     

Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia

Abstract

Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook

Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373.     

Magnetic properties of sediments in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea: impact of rapid North Atlantic Ocean climatic events on the strength of the Indian monsoon

The results of a high-resolution mineral magnetic study combined with major element geochemistry analysis, oxygen isotopes and ¹⁴C AMS stratigraphy are reported for deep-sea gravity cores MD77-169 and MD77-180 located in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, respectively. Core MD77-169 covers the last 280 kyr and core MD77-180 covers the last 160 kyr. In both cores, rock magnetic parameters indicate that the magnetic assemblage is dominated by pseudo-single domain titanomagnetite grains, with grain-size variations following a strong 23 kyr periodicity. Smaller magnetic grain sizes are observed during periods characterized by a strong summer monsoon. In addition, in core MD77-180, we observe a correlation between magnetic grain size and a chemical index of alteration. This suggests that these magnetic grain-size changes are related to chemical weathering driven by summer monsoon rainfall. A comparison of the GISP2 ice core isotopic record and the magnetic grain-size record of the Bay of Bengal shows that rapid temperature variations documented in the ice core (Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events), during the last glacial period are also present in the magnetic grain-size record. Heinrich events and cold stadial events are characterized by relatively large magnetic grain sizes. Furthermore, Heinrich events are characterized by lower values of the chemical index of alteration implying a lower degree of chemical weathering related to significantly drier conditions on the continent. We suggest that rapid cold events of the North Atlantic (Heinrich events) during the last glacial stages are characterized by a weaker summer monsoon rainfall over the Himalaya via an atmospheric teleconnection.     

Eurasian snow cover and seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Abstract

This paper presents the relationship between Indian summer monsoon total rainfall and two parameters from Eurasian snow cover, one being the winter snow cover extent and the other the area of spring snowmelt. Satellite-derived Eurasian snow cover extent and Indian monsoon rainfall data were obtained from the NOAA/NESDIS and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1966–1985. Seasonal cyclic variations of snow cover showed a higher swing in both the winter and the spring seasons of the cycle as compared to the remaining seasons of the year in the lower region of the cycle. The established inverse relation between winter snow cover and monsoon rainfall during June to September is further extended. Winter snow cover is very strongly correlated with spring snowmelt over Eurasia. Spring snowmelt area is obtained by subtracting the May snow cover extent from that of the previous February. The variations of spring snowmelt were also compared with Indian total monsoon rainfall. The detected correlation is stronger between snowmelt and monsoon rainfall than between the winter snow cover and the monsoon rainfall. There is also a significant multiple correlation among winter snow cover, spring snowmelt and monsoon rainfall. Lastly, a significant multiple correlation suggested a multiple regression equation which might improve the climatic prediction of monsoon rainfall over India.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…