一种初轨计算的稳健方法

光学测角资料的初轨计算在空间目标搜索发现中具有重要作用,当观测资料存在野值时,基于最小二乘的经典初轨计算方法不够稳健.采用最小一乘方法建立了一种初轨计算的稳健方法,方法将初轨计算问题转换为线性规划问题求解,并通过bootstrap方法给出估计精度.数值计算结果表明方法稳健有效,并具有较高的崩溃点.     

初轨计算中角资料观测误差传播的一些讨论

用非线性规划方法处理初轨计算问题,将观测误差看成参量的微小扰动量。在无摄情况下,建立了非线性规划中的灵敏度分析模型（ｆｈｐ）。由此推导,在无摄情况下关于角资料观测误差对角资料观测真值的影响的误差传播分析公式（一阶近似）。     

VGOS观测网初步观测及其讨论

为满足天文和测地研究需要,国际甚长基线干涉测量(VLBI)服务组织(IVS)提出了新一代VLBI空间测地计划—VLBI全球观测系统(VGOS)。按照VGOS技术规范,我国第一套VGOS系统于2016年初在中国科学院国家授时中心落成。为满足GEO卫星、射电源较差观测需求,需要制作全新的观测纲要。通过选取与卫星近角距的射电源来消除观测系统误差对卫星定轨的影响,最后利用软件相关处理机对观测数据进行相关处理并给出观测的初步结果,结果表明观测达到预计的观测精度。     

地球场的广义相对论效应对人造卫星轨道的影响

从计及J2项的地球重力场度规出发，我们导出在这样的度规场中人造卫星的摄动加速度及在径向、横向和轨道面法向等方面的摄动函数，进而计算了轨道一阶导数的平均值，讨论了在这种重力场中卫星的轨道特性。其主要结论是：1、球形地球的广义相对论摄动仅对近地点角距ω和平近点角τ产生长期项，而地球J2项的广义相对论效应不仅对这两个根数有长期摄动，而且对升效点角距Ω出有长期摄动。值得注意的是这两种广义相对论效应对半长轴a，偏心率e及倾角i都没有长期摄动；2、球形地球的广义相对论效应对倾角i和升交点角距Ω仅有短周期摄动，但地球J2项的广义相对论效应除了对它们有短周期摄动外，还有长周期摄动，对Ω甚至还有长期摄动。     

利用天基测角资料进行定轨的方法初探

利用观测得到的测角资料确定目标星的轨道,具有非常重要的应用价值.为了解决该问题,首先给出了最优化数学模型STSM,其次,利用测角资料进行多项式拟合,给出求解最优化模型STSM所必需的初始值计算方案,再次,对STSM目标函数的性态进行了详细地分析,并据此给出了求解该优化问题的基本方法.最后,将上面的方法付诸实施,进行了大量的仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行了初步地分析.计算结果表明,在一定的精度和稀疏度的限制之下,根据方案使用天基测角数据确定目标星的轨道根数既可行又稳健.     

1.2m地平式望远镜指向模型的研究-测角编码器小周期模型的建立

介绍了1．2m地平式望远镜利用天文观测和图像采集处理的方法，通过建立测角编码器小周期模型，解决了数显部分的细分误差，提高了指向精度，对于空间目标高精度测轨、定轨及激光卫星的盲跟踪测距都是十分重要的。     

基于卫星DOR信号的VLBI相时延解算方法研究

VLBI技术是深空探测中主要的测角手段,其对与视线垂直方向上卫星的轨道和位置变化有很高的灵敏度.基于DOR信号的VLBI观测量一般是群时延,其精度一般为纳秒量级,在约2000 km的基线长度上,月球探测器的位置测量误差达近百米,对深空探测器来说位置测量误差会更大.为了提高卫星测定轨测定位精度,研究了含微小偏倚量的VLBI相时延的解算算法,并利用嫦娥—号△DOR观测数据对连续观测和间断观测时的算法进行了验证.结果表明:两种观测模式下皆可行.经过比较,相时延的随机误差大幅降低.     

小行星(234)Barbara的新轨道和星历表

小行星(234)Barbara 为彼得(Peters)在1883年所发现.惕乾曾根据1883,85,86年三次冲日的观测,并计算木星对它的摄动,求得一组轨道根数,且继续计算木星摄动至1898年为止.但在1920年该星赤经的观测与预告的值,即 O—C 值,竟达到 10~m.3之多,所以斯特拉克重新近似计算木星摄动至1923年为止.求得该星的轨道根数为:     

多点高斯定轨方法

针对光学测角资料给出了一种多点高斯定轨方法,该方法公式简单,容易推广使用。经实测计算表明,观测资料分布较好,该方法对于较大的偏心率和小偏心率轨道计算是可靠和有效的。     

海潮对STARLETTE卫星轨道的摄动

本文选择1976年10月到1977年7月期间,全球对卫星STARLETTE激光测距的连续300天的观测资料,分析了海潮对该卫星轨道的摄动。1.在力学模型计及地球形状、大气阻力、日月引力、太阳辐射压和固体潮的摄动情形下,应用最大熵功率谱和周期图解法分析了所得STARLETTE的轨道倾角的残差。从中可明显地看出,海潮的4个主要分潮波K_1、P_1、K_2和S_2所产生的长周期(长于20天)摄动。2.以计及上述所有摄动并还包括海潮摄动在内的力学模型为基础产生模拟资料(即参考轨迹),然后应用计及上述所有摄动但海潮摄动却除外的力学模型数值积分所得的轨迹去拟合这些模拟资料的方法,估计了海潮对STARLETTE在5天弧段内的位置影响的数量级。     

Study on the Orbit Prediction Errors of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE Data

Two line element (TLE) released by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information about its accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application of the TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate the orbit error data, based on the historical TLE data obtained from the Space-Track website and the SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of the variation of orbit prediction error with time are given for each space object, and the characteristics of the error evolution are further discussed for the different types of orbits. The mean analytic model of the orbit prediction error evolution with time is given respectively for the four orbit types of space objects, which provides a valuable reference for extending the application of the TLE data.     

A Robust Method of Preliminary Orbit Determination

The preliminary orbit determination with optical angular measure- ments plays an important role in the survey of space objects. The classical method of orbit computation based on the least square error estimation is not robust while outliers occur in the observation. A robust method is proposed by employing the least absolute deviation estimation. The method reduces the problem of orbit determination to a linear programming problem, and gives the variance of the estimation with the bootstrap method. Numerical check shows that the method is effective and robust, and has a high breakdown point.     

Orbit determination of satellite “Tance 1” with VLBI data

The satellite “Tance 1” of the “Double-Star Program” is the first truly scientific experimentation satellite of China. Its orbit is the farthest so far launched in China, with a geocentric apogee reaching 78 thousand kilometers. The tracking of “Tance 1” and of more distant space targets, such as the lunar exploration craft, can be realized with the VLBI technique of radio astronomy. In order to test and verify the role which the VLBI technique plays in the lunar exploration program of China, Shanghai Astronomical Observatory organized the only 3 tracking stations in China (located at Shanghai, Urumqi and Kunming), to carry out test tracking of “Tance 1,” and used the time delay data obtained to determine the orbit of “Tance 1” over a two-day period, so providing a preliminary assessment of the possibility of VLBI orbit determination. The fitting error of the orbit so obtained is about 5.5 m in the time delay and about 2 cm/s in the delay rate (this for checking only), much better than is provided by the preliminary orbit (used merely for ensuring tracking) in which the corresponding figures are around 2 km and 15 cm/s. Further, if the orbit is determined by using both the time delay and time delay rate data (with weights according to their internal accuracies), then the residuals are 5.5 m in the time delay and 2 cm/s in the delay rate. For an appreciation of the true accuracy of the VLBI orbit determination, we used simulation data (of the observed two-day VLBI data) and found the results depended greatly on the error in the dynamic model of the satellite which, however, is difficult to assess, while the formal residuals are of the order of 1 kin in the delay and of cm/s in the delay rate. The simulation computation also indicates that a joint determination using both VLBI and USB data will have an improved accuracy.     

基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.     

单位矢量法的数学模型(MMUVM)及其简化形式(PUVM1)的迭代法的收敛性

利用人造地球卫星观测资料测定有摄初轨的单位矢量法(PUVM1),已得到了非常广泛地实际应用.为了对单位矢量法作进一步地完善和改进,首先在考虑测量误差模型的基础上,建立单位矢量法所对应的数学模型MMUVM.它本质上就是一个非线性最优化问题.针对MMUVM,先分别使用多圈仿真数据和实测数据,形成了与之相对应的目标函数,再利用求解最优化问题的一种三对角二次插值模型的直接搜索方法,分别对其进行了数值处理.计算结果表明,所建立的优化模型MMUVM正确合理,所采用的直接搜索方法实用有效.其次,进一步指明了PUVM1和MMUVM之间关系,即:从本质上讲,PUVM1就是MMUVM的一种简化形式.从数学原理上,清楚地解释了利用PUVM1的准法化方程,只能使用单圈短弧段数据进行初始轨道确定,而不能使用长弧段多圈资料进行轨道确定或轨道改进的根本原因.最后,对PUVM1的迭代算法的收敛性问题进行了初步的理论分析,并给出了相应的数值验证实例,指出了PUVM1的迭代格式是条件收敛的,即:只有在满足一定条件后,才能收敛.这也就意味着:有的时候,尽管准法化方程是合情合理的,但是,此时该迭代法却是发散的,无法迭代求出所要的解.     

Research on the Method of Orbit Determination Based on the Self-adaptive Stable Least p-norm Estimate

The traditional least square estimation (LSE) method for orbit determination will not be optimal if the error of observational data does not obey the Gaussian distribution. In order to solve this problem, the least p-norm (Lp) estimation method is presented in this paper to deal with the non-Gaussian distribution cases. We show that a suitable selection of parameter p may guarantee a reasonable orbit determination result. The character of Lp estimation is analyzed. It is shown that the traditional Lp estimation method is not a robust method. And a stable Lp estimating based on data depth weighting is put forward to deal with the model error and outlier. In the orbit determination process, the outlier of observational data and coarse model error can be quantitatively described by their weights. The farther is the data from the data center, the smaller is the value of data depth and the smaller is the weighted value accordingly. The result of the new Lp method is stabler than that of the traditional Lp estimation and the breakdown point could be up to 1/2. In addition, the orbit parameter is adaptively estimated by residual analysis and matrix estimation method, and the estimation efficiency is enhanced. Finally, by taking the Space-based Space Surveillance System as an example and performing simulation experiments, we show that if there are system error or abnormal value in the observational data or system error in satellite dynamical model and space-based observation platform, LSE will not be optimal even though the observational data obeys the Gaussian distribution, and the orbit determination precision by the self-adaptive robust Lp estimation method is much better than that by the traditional LSE method.     

利用3次方位观测天基初轨确定新方法

提出了一种适用于天基空间目标光学观测的初始轨道确定新方法. 通过对比地基和天基观测的几何构型, 分析了利用天基光学观测数据进行初轨确定时计算收敛到观测平台自身轨道的原因. 基于轨道半通径方程和改进Gauss方程, 推导出了斜距条件方程组的解析形式, 将天基光学观测的初轨确定问题转换为求解关于观测时刻斜距变量的非线性条件方程组的问题. 利用轨道能量约束减小了解的搜索区域, 消除了方程组的奇点. 最后利用天基实测数据验证并分析了非线性条件方程组根的性质, 利用低轨光学观测平台对低、中、高轨和大椭圆轨道空间目标的仿真观测数据验证了方法的有效性.     

The Application of GIM in Precise Orbit Determination for LEO Satellites with Single-Frequency GPS Measurements

With the precise GPS ephemeris and clock error available, the iono- spheric delay is left as the dominant error source in the single-frequency GPS data. Thus, the removal of ionospheric effects is a ma jor prerequisite for an improved orbit reconstruction of LEO satellites based on the single-frequency GPS data. In this paper, the use of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) in kine- matic and dynamic orbit determinations for LEO satellites with single-frequency GPS pseudorange measurements is discussed first, and then, estimating the iono- spheric scale factor to remove the ionospheric effects from the C/A-code pseu- dorange measurements for both kinematic and dynamic orbit determinations is addressed. As it is known that the ionospheric delay of space-borne GPS sig- nals is strongly dependent on the orbit altitudes of LEO satellites, we select the real C/A-code pseudorange measurement data of the CHAMP, GRACE, TerraSAR-X and SAC-C satellites with altitudes between 300 km and 800 km as sample data in this paper. It is demonstrated that the approach to eliminating ionospheric effects in C/A-code pseudorange measurements by estimating the ionospheric scale factor is highly effective. Employing this approach, the accu- racy of both kinematic and dynamic orbits can be improved notably. Among those five LEO satellites, CHAMP with the lowest orbit altitude has the most remarkable improvements in orbit accuracy, which are 55.6% and 47.6% for kine- matic and dynamic orbits, respectively. SAC-C with the highest orbit altitude has the least improvements in orbit accuracy accordingly, which are 47.8% and 38.2%, respectively.     

Orbit Determination of the Asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa and Its Error Analysis

As an Earth co-orbital asteroid, (469219) Kamoòalewa is a near earth object (NEO) with high value of research, and one of the targets explored by the first Chinese asteroid exploration mission. Given its orbit characteristics, we build a refined dynamical model for this asteroid, in which the effects induced by nonspherical gravitational fields of the Sun, the Earth, and the Moon are combined. On the basis of the dynamical model of the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa, its orbit is determined with optical data from 2004 to 2018 available on the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database. The root mean square error of post-fit residuals is about 0.2 arc second (comparable with that of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Horizons), and the post-fit residuals of optical observations in 2004 are decreased. At the end, we implement error analysis on the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa's orbit in detail, and also predict its orbit error at the time interval between 2020 and 2025.